Analysis of the 2012 U.S. election by Jacksonville University Prof. Stephen Baker

1. 2012 Presidential Election:
What Happened?
Stephen Baker, Ph.D.
Professor of Political Science
Social Science Research Center
Jacksonville University
sbaker@ju.edu
http://users.ju.edu/sbaker/election2012.pptsx

2. POLITICS
• Aristotle: Politics is the noblest of all
professions and queen of all sciences
• Otto von Bismarck: People sleep better at
night if they don’t know how laws and
sausages are made
• Everett Dirksen: Politics is a bit like sex—
those who think it’s dirty just aren’t doing it
right

3. Let the games begin!

4. Generic Explanation of Elections
Winner’s explanation:
• America has spoken
• We had a great campaign
Loser’s explanation:
• We failed to communicate effectively
• The opponents had a great campaign

5. Popular Vote Margins
Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

6. http://www.270towin.com/

7. /http://www.270towin.com

9. Geographically more areas went for the
Republican, Mitt Romney than the
Democrat, Barack Obama
But Obama won in the high population areas

10. U.S. 2012 Presidential Election by Counties

11. Proportionate Change from 2008

12. Population Density Map of the U.S.
Map by Robert J. Vanderbei
http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2004/ Princeton University

13. 2012 Presidential Election:
3 D Model

14. 33 Senate Races (23 Dem seats + 10 Rep seats)
Net gain=2 Dem seats
New York Times

15. 33 Senate Seats (county level)
New York Times

16. New York Times

17. Susan MacManus

18. Duval 2012 Presidential Race
Supervisor of Elections Web Page

19. Duval 2012 Senate Race
Supervisor of Elections Web Page

20. Presidential Senate
Supervisor of Elections Web Page

21. 2012 Presidential Election
Created by Dr. Jeff Martin
JU Geography Department

22. Jacksonville Univesity 2012 Presidential Survey Results
Obama (D) Romney(R) Johnson (L) Other/None
Students 42% 50% 5% 3% (411)
Faculty 55 39 2 3* (104)
Administration 63 37 - - (49)
Staff 46 54 - - (54)
Obama (D) Romney(R) Johnson (L) Other/None
Freshman 25% 64% 8% 3% (61)
Soph. 33 53 3 10 (60)
Junior 45 51 4 - (102)
Senior 45 45 6 4 (113)
Grad. St. 55 39 4 1 (69)
Faculty vote by College
Obama (D) Romney(R) Johnson (L) Other/None
Arts/Sciences 64% 31% - 4% (52)
Fine Arts 69 19 6 6 (16)
Health 44 56 - - (16)
Business 21 79 - - (14)
Other 50 33 16 - (6)

23. The Money Chase
Center for Responsive Politics

25. Center for Responsive Politics

26. Polling Data from 2008 Election
Politics has got so expensive that it takes lots of money even to get beat.
—Will Rogers

27. Most Expensive Senate Races
“We have the best Congress money can buy.”
—Will Rogers

32. Exit Polls:
Comparing 2008 and 2012

36. Exit Poll Archives: 1972 through 2008

41. My name is Stephen Baker
and I approved this message
For a copy of this presentation see
http://users.ju.edu/sbaker/election2012.ppsx