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Ragnar Arnason*

Fisheries Problems and Reforms
A presentation at

The Fisheries Conference
Tallin, Estonia
November 27, 2013
* Professor
University of Iceland
Synopsis
1. The fisheries problem
2. Fisheries reforms

3. The CFP reforms
4. What can Estonia do?
The Fisheries Problem
Found in ocean fisheries all around the world!

Appears generally as:
1. Excessive fishing effort and fleets
2. Depressed fish stocks and falling yield
3. Low incomes of fishers and fishing
communities
4. High level of biological ...and social risk
The Fisheries Problem (…cont.)
Often accompanied by :
•
•
•
•
•

High level of fish discarding
Low quality of landings
Poor access to financial capital
Distorted and often little technical progress
Economic and social stagnation

Very important
Fisheries management (attempts at “fisheries
reforms”) frequently makes the situation worse!!
This state of affairs is caused by the

Common Property Problem (CPP)!
The CPP implies absence of private property rights
Markets cannot exist
No market guidance toward the common good

Overexploitation and waste !
Common property
• Assets, resources, property held in common by
a group of people
– Held in common
equal rights of use
– The group can be small (2 people) or large ( nation)

• Examples
– Ozone layer, atmosphere, the environment, wild
animals, fish stocks
Aristotle (Politics, book II. ca. 350 BC)
“the greater the number of owners, the less the respect
for common property. People are much more careful of
their personal possessions than of those owned
communally; they exercise care over common property
only in so far as they are personally affected.”
Garret Hardin (Science 1968)

“Tragedy of the Commons”
Under the CP-arrangement individual users are forced
to overexploit. Otherwise they get nothing!
• The common property arrangement is a social
organization
• It is a man-made institution (nothing natural
about it)
• Other terms for common property fisheries
– Common pool fisheries
– Open access fisheries
– Competitive fisheries
The common property problem
• An error of social organization
– Forces individual users to compete for available
resources (wrong incentives)

• The CPP does is not caused by
(1) Lack of understanding
(2) Lack of (biological) data
Even with perfect knowledge and data the problem
would persist!

The common property problem is caused by
lack of individual fishers’ rights in the fishery!
Analysis:
Common property fishery
Costs

Value,
$
Sustainable
revenues (yield)

MEY
MSY

Biomass

Effort
CSY

Sustainable
biomass
Nota Bene
1. It is the MEY-point (maximum economic yield )
that is socially optimal
2. MSY is not socially optimal
3. MEY
– implies greater biomass than MSY
– is sustainable
– entails little risk of stock collapse
– usually generates substantial profits (rents)
The Dynamic Fishery
100


e

Effort, e

Competitive

Zn 2

N1( x)

50

N2( fk x)


x

0

Optimal

0
0

x0
min

1
Biomass, x
Zn 1 x x

2
The Empirical Evidence:
Evolution of the global fishery
• Evidence from various FAO, World Bank,
OECD and academic publications
• Since the end of WW-II
1.
2.
3.
4.

Fishing fleets: Huge increase
Net economic returns: Decline
Fish stocks: Drastic decline
Global ocean catches: Stagnated (even declined)
Global marine catches (m.mt.)
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
Million
metric
tonnes

50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0

Statistically significant
declining trend since 1990

10.0
0.0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
The Economics of Global Fishing
• Not only has there been a dramatic biological
mismanagement of the global fishery, the
economic mismanagement is even worse
• The global landed value is about USD 90 b. per
year
• Profits are insignificant, perhaps USD 5 b.
• Subsidies are high, perhaps USD 10 b.
(EU, Japan, China)
Empirical evidence: The global fishery
(Sunken Billions; World Bank and FAO 2009; data 2004)
120.0

Revenues and costs (B.US$)

100.0

80.0

Actual
profits

Potential
profits

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0
0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

Fishing effort (index)

Optimal

Actual
Global Fishery: Economic waste
(Sunken Billions, 2009)

Sustainable global fishery:
Current (2004) and profit maximizing outcomes
Current

Optimal

Difference
(optimal –current)

Fishing effort

13.9 m. GRT

7.3 m. GRT

-6.6 m. GRT

Harvest

85 m. mt

81 m. mt.

-4 m. mt.

Biomass

148 m. mt

314 m. mt.

+165 m.mt.

Profits

-5 b. USD

44 b. USD

49 b. USD

50 b. USD

Global Development Assistance in 2004
II
Fisheries Reforms
Fisheries reforms attempt to:
Alleviate the ravages of the CPP
Move the fishery toward the optimal point

Nota bene
This is human management!
- Get people to act in the collectively “best” manner
Fishers act according to the
Prevailing Fisheries Management Regime (FMR) i
Fishers act according to the
Fisheries Management Regime
• The fisheries management regime (FMR):
– The institutional framework under which the
fishing activity operates

• FMR may be set by
(a) Social custom and tradition
(b) The government (the fisheries authority)
(c) The association of fishermen
(d) Other means

• It may be explicit or implicit
• Fisheries reforms must alter the FMR!
FMR: Main components

Fisheries
management
system,
FMS

Monitoring,
control &
surveillance,
MCS

Fisheries
judicial
system,
FJS

• Links in the same chain!
• If one breaks the chain is useless!
Fisheries Management Systems:
Classification
Biological
fisheries
management

Only property
rights work!

Economic
fisheries
management

Direct

Indirect

Taxes

Property
rights
Key Property Rights in Fisheries

Territorial
user rights
TURFs

Individual
quotas
IQs/ITQs

Rarely
used

Mainly
sedentary
species

Widely
applicable;
very common

Fairly
common

Effective

Effective if
applicable

Effective if
enforceable

Mixed
evidence

Sole
ownership

Community
rights
Individual Transferable Quotas: ITQs
• The most widely applied rights-based fisheries
management system in the world
• Adopted as a major part of the FMS by at least
22 major fishing nations
─ NewZealand, Australia, Mexico, USA, Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Holland,
Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Estonia, Germany, UK, Portugal, Spain, Rus
sia, Morocco, Namibia, South Africa, Chile, Peru, Falkland

• Close to 25% of global catch taken under ITQs!
Outcomes of ITQs
- General pattern around the world -

Economically very successful!
(1) Reduction in fishing effort (immediate)
(2) Fishing capital declines (but usually slowly)

(3) Biomass recovers (slowly)
(4) Unit price of landings quickly increases (often greatly)
(5) Quotas become valuable (quickly!)

(6) Enhanced resource stewardship by fishers
(7) Discarding often reduced
Examples of ITQ success
• British Columbia trawl fishery
– Great increase in profits, increased resource
stewardship, stock and environmental improvements.

• Icelandic demersal fisheries
– Great increase in profits (30-50% of revenues), stock
improvements, reduced discarding

• North Atlantic pelagic fisheries
– Very good profits ( 30%)

• New Zealand fisheries
– Very profitable. Stock stabilization,
Social impacts of fisheries reforms
• Reduces fishing effort
• Alters fishing and fish processing behaviour
• Leads to streamlined efficient operations

Substantial social impacts (inevitable)
Opposition
– Fishing communities
– Social conservationists
Who gains/who loses?
• Sensible reforms => net social gain (often substantial)
Possible to make everyone better off (Hicks-Kaldor
improvement)
• In reality not necessarily so
• In the short run
– Recipients of rights and retained fishers gain most
– Laid-off fishers and inhabitants of declining communities
may lose

Social opposition
• In the long run most people gain (gdp & employment )
III.
CFP reforms
The CFP
Fundamentally inappropriate !!
• Common fishing grounds
– Exacerbates the CPP

• National enforcement
– Inappropriate incentives
– Built in conflict of interest
– Unequal treatment of violations

The EU has been trying to deal with the resulting
problems ever since !
Conduct of the policy has been bad
Stocks:
Harvests:
Fleets:
Profits:
Subsidies:
Discards:

Heavily overfished
Declining
Hugely excessive
Very poor
Very high
High

Overall assessment
EU fisheries are the worst in the western world!
(Norway, Iceland, Greenland, Canada, USA and Russia are much better)
The EU’s own assessment of the situation
(Green paper on the reform of the CFP, 2009):
The EU fisheries are characterized by:
– Overfishing
–
–
–
–

Overcapacity
Heavy subsidies
Low economic resilience
Decline in the volume of fish caught

Conclusion (in the Green paper)
“The CFP is not achieving its objectives”
Evolution of catch volume
8

7
6
5
M.
mt.

4
3
2
1
0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

EU catch volume

2006

2007

Trend

2008

2009

2010

Statistically significant
declining trend: -3%
per year
The EU excels only
in fisheries subsidies!
• The highest capacity enhancing subsidies in
the world !
• Major detrimental impact on fisheries
efficiency
• Really a negative reform
• Swamps the reforms (which are considerably
weaker)
EU fisheries subsidies
(According to a recent study for the EU parliament
(IP/B/PECH/IC/2013-146))

Capacity enhancing subsidies
(Billion US$ per year)
4.5
4
3.5

3

B.
US$

2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0

EU

Japan

China

Russia

USA

Indonesia
Subsidies per unit volume ofcatch
(US$/kg)

0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
US$/kg
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00

EU

Japan

China

Russia

USA

Indonesia
Key initial proposals
(By the commission)

1. Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY)

Advisability
-

2. Multiannual quota plans

-/+

3. Transferable fishing concessions (ITQs)

++

4. Decentralization (regionalization)

+

5. Discard ban

+/-
The actual decision
1. Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY)

Yes

2. Multiannual quota plans

Yes

3. Transferable fishing concessions (ITQs)

No

4. Decentralization (regionalization)

Yes

5. Discard ban

Yes

So the most important reform was rejected!
IV
Impacts on Estonia
Impacts are probably not very great
• Estonia already has a fairly efficient fisheries
management regime (ITQs)
• The reforms adopted are not radical
• Potentially significant impacts:
– Ban on discards (Are discards in Estonian fisheries significant?)
– Stock rebuilding toward MSY (Estonia’s national quotas)
– Withholding of subsidies if excessive fleets are not reduced
(Does Estonia have significantly excessive fleets?)

– New opportunities for structural funds (Under the social
dimension of the CFP)
What should Estonia do?
• Do not wait for the EU
• Do your own fisheries reforms
– Strengthen your ITQ system
•
•
•
•

Move away from gear/effort quotas if possible
Strengthen property rights value of ITQs (duration, security)
Improve the enforcement of quotas
Support ITQ market and ITQ price listing (..if necessary)

– Promote business attitude in the fisheries sector
• Encourage investment in quality, processing and marketing
• Avoid detrimental taxation
• Allow ITQs as financial collateral
• Fisheries reforms (cont.)
– Be careful with vessel reduction/buy-back
programs
• Can easily be counter productive
• Use funds generated to improve the fisheries

– Press for sensible Baltic stock rebuilding
programme
• You have shared stocks

– Press for sensible Baltic marine protection policy
• Stocks, ecosystem, habitat
OECD report on Estonian fisheries (2009)

Title page photograph

Fake fish?
The title page we want to see

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Kalanduse probleemid ja reformid. Ragnar Arnason

  • 1. Ragnar Arnason* Fisheries Problems and Reforms A presentation at The Fisheries Conference Tallin, Estonia November 27, 2013 * Professor University of Iceland
  • 2. Synopsis 1. The fisheries problem 2. Fisheries reforms 3. The CFP reforms 4. What can Estonia do?
  • 3. The Fisheries Problem Found in ocean fisheries all around the world! Appears generally as: 1. Excessive fishing effort and fleets 2. Depressed fish stocks and falling yield 3. Low incomes of fishers and fishing communities 4. High level of biological ...and social risk
  • 4. The Fisheries Problem (…cont.) Often accompanied by : • • • • • High level of fish discarding Low quality of landings Poor access to financial capital Distorted and often little technical progress Economic and social stagnation Very important Fisheries management (attempts at “fisheries reforms”) frequently makes the situation worse!!
  • 5. This state of affairs is caused by the Common Property Problem (CPP)! The CPP implies absence of private property rights Markets cannot exist No market guidance toward the common good Overexploitation and waste !
  • 6. Common property • Assets, resources, property held in common by a group of people – Held in common equal rights of use – The group can be small (2 people) or large ( nation) • Examples – Ozone layer, atmosphere, the environment, wild animals, fish stocks
  • 7. Aristotle (Politics, book II. ca. 350 BC) “the greater the number of owners, the less the respect for common property. People are much more careful of their personal possessions than of those owned communally; they exercise care over common property only in so far as they are personally affected.” Garret Hardin (Science 1968) “Tragedy of the Commons” Under the CP-arrangement individual users are forced to overexploit. Otherwise they get nothing!
  • 8. • The common property arrangement is a social organization • It is a man-made institution (nothing natural about it) • Other terms for common property fisheries – Common pool fisheries – Open access fisheries – Competitive fisheries
  • 9. The common property problem • An error of social organization – Forces individual users to compete for available resources (wrong incentives) • The CPP does is not caused by (1) Lack of understanding (2) Lack of (biological) data Even with perfect knowledge and data the problem would persist! The common property problem is caused by lack of individual fishers’ rights in the fishery!
  • 10. Analysis: Common property fishery Costs Value, $ Sustainable revenues (yield) MEY MSY Biomass Effort CSY Sustainable biomass
  • 11. Nota Bene 1. It is the MEY-point (maximum economic yield ) that is socially optimal 2. MSY is not socially optimal 3. MEY – implies greater biomass than MSY – is sustainable – entails little risk of stock collapse – usually generates substantial profits (rents)
  • 12. The Dynamic Fishery 100  e Effort, e Competitive Zn 2 N1( x) 50 N2( fk x)  x 0 Optimal 0 0 x0 min 1 Biomass, x Zn 1 x x 2
  • 13. The Empirical Evidence: Evolution of the global fishery • Evidence from various FAO, World Bank, OECD and academic publications • Since the end of WW-II 1. 2. 3. 4. Fishing fleets: Huge increase Net economic returns: Decline Fish stocks: Drastic decline Global ocean catches: Stagnated (even declined)
  • 14. Global marine catches (m.mt.) 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 Million metric tonnes 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 Statistically significant declining trend since 1990 10.0 0.0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  • 15. The Economics of Global Fishing • Not only has there been a dramatic biological mismanagement of the global fishery, the economic mismanagement is even worse • The global landed value is about USD 90 b. per year • Profits are insignificant, perhaps USD 5 b. • Subsidies are high, perhaps USD 10 b. (EU, Japan, China)
  • 16. Empirical evidence: The global fishery (Sunken Billions; World Bank and FAO 2009; data 2004) 120.0 Revenues and costs (B.US$) 100.0 80.0 Actual profits Potential profits 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 Fishing effort (index) Optimal Actual
  • 17. Global Fishery: Economic waste (Sunken Billions, 2009) Sustainable global fishery: Current (2004) and profit maximizing outcomes Current Optimal Difference (optimal –current) Fishing effort 13.9 m. GRT 7.3 m. GRT -6.6 m. GRT Harvest 85 m. mt 81 m. mt. -4 m. mt. Biomass 148 m. mt 314 m. mt. +165 m.mt. Profits -5 b. USD 44 b. USD 49 b. USD 50 b. USD Global Development Assistance in 2004
  • 19. Fisheries reforms attempt to: Alleviate the ravages of the CPP Move the fishery toward the optimal point Nota bene This is human management! - Get people to act in the collectively “best” manner Fishers act according to the Prevailing Fisheries Management Regime (FMR) i
  • 20. Fishers act according to the Fisheries Management Regime • The fisheries management regime (FMR): – The institutional framework under which the fishing activity operates • FMR may be set by (a) Social custom and tradition (b) The government (the fisheries authority) (c) The association of fishermen (d) Other means • It may be explicit or implicit • Fisheries reforms must alter the FMR!
  • 21. FMR: Main components Fisheries management system, FMS Monitoring, control & surveillance, MCS Fisheries judicial system, FJS • Links in the same chain! • If one breaks the chain is useless!
  • 22. Fisheries Management Systems: Classification Biological fisheries management Only property rights work! Economic fisheries management Direct Indirect Taxes Property rights
  • 23. Key Property Rights in Fisheries Territorial user rights TURFs Individual quotas IQs/ITQs Rarely used Mainly sedentary species Widely applicable; very common Fairly common Effective Effective if applicable Effective if enforceable Mixed evidence Sole ownership Community rights
  • 24. Individual Transferable Quotas: ITQs • The most widely applied rights-based fisheries management system in the world • Adopted as a major part of the FMS by at least 22 major fishing nations ─ NewZealand, Australia, Mexico, USA, Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Holland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Estonia, Germany, UK, Portugal, Spain, Rus sia, Morocco, Namibia, South Africa, Chile, Peru, Falkland • Close to 25% of global catch taken under ITQs!
  • 25. Outcomes of ITQs - General pattern around the world - Economically very successful! (1) Reduction in fishing effort (immediate) (2) Fishing capital declines (but usually slowly) (3) Biomass recovers (slowly) (4) Unit price of landings quickly increases (often greatly) (5) Quotas become valuable (quickly!) (6) Enhanced resource stewardship by fishers (7) Discarding often reduced
  • 26. Examples of ITQ success • British Columbia trawl fishery – Great increase in profits, increased resource stewardship, stock and environmental improvements. • Icelandic demersal fisheries – Great increase in profits (30-50% of revenues), stock improvements, reduced discarding • North Atlantic pelagic fisheries – Very good profits ( 30%) • New Zealand fisheries – Very profitable. Stock stabilization,
  • 27. Social impacts of fisheries reforms • Reduces fishing effort • Alters fishing and fish processing behaviour • Leads to streamlined efficient operations Substantial social impacts (inevitable) Opposition – Fishing communities – Social conservationists
  • 28. Who gains/who loses? • Sensible reforms => net social gain (often substantial) Possible to make everyone better off (Hicks-Kaldor improvement) • In reality not necessarily so • In the short run – Recipients of rights and retained fishers gain most – Laid-off fishers and inhabitants of declining communities may lose Social opposition • In the long run most people gain (gdp & employment )
  • 30. The CFP Fundamentally inappropriate !! • Common fishing grounds – Exacerbates the CPP • National enforcement – Inappropriate incentives – Built in conflict of interest – Unequal treatment of violations The EU has been trying to deal with the resulting problems ever since !
  • 31. Conduct of the policy has been bad Stocks: Harvests: Fleets: Profits: Subsidies: Discards: Heavily overfished Declining Hugely excessive Very poor Very high High Overall assessment EU fisheries are the worst in the western world! (Norway, Iceland, Greenland, Canada, USA and Russia are much better)
  • 32. The EU’s own assessment of the situation (Green paper on the reform of the CFP, 2009): The EU fisheries are characterized by: – Overfishing – – – – Overcapacity Heavy subsidies Low economic resilience Decline in the volume of fish caught Conclusion (in the Green paper) “The CFP is not achieving its objectives”
  • 33. Evolution of catch volume 8 7 6 5 M. mt. 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 EU catch volume 2006 2007 Trend 2008 2009 2010 Statistically significant declining trend: -3% per year
  • 34. The EU excels only in fisheries subsidies! • The highest capacity enhancing subsidies in the world ! • Major detrimental impact on fisheries efficiency • Really a negative reform • Swamps the reforms (which are considerably weaker)
  • 35. EU fisheries subsidies (According to a recent study for the EU parliament (IP/B/PECH/IC/2013-146)) Capacity enhancing subsidies (Billion US$ per year) 4.5 4 3.5 3 B. US$ 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 EU Japan China Russia USA Indonesia
  • 36. Subsidies per unit volume ofcatch (US$/kg) 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 US$/kg 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 EU Japan China Russia USA Indonesia
  • 37. Key initial proposals (By the commission) 1. Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) Advisability - 2. Multiannual quota plans -/+ 3. Transferable fishing concessions (ITQs) ++ 4. Decentralization (regionalization) + 5. Discard ban +/-
  • 38. The actual decision 1. Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) Yes 2. Multiannual quota plans Yes 3. Transferable fishing concessions (ITQs) No 4. Decentralization (regionalization) Yes 5. Discard ban Yes So the most important reform was rejected!
  • 40. Impacts are probably not very great • Estonia already has a fairly efficient fisheries management regime (ITQs) • The reforms adopted are not radical • Potentially significant impacts: – Ban on discards (Are discards in Estonian fisheries significant?) – Stock rebuilding toward MSY (Estonia’s national quotas) – Withholding of subsidies if excessive fleets are not reduced (Does Estonia have significantly excessive fleets?) – New opportunities for structural funds (Under the social dimension of the CFP)
  • 41. What should Estonia do? • Do not wait for the EU • Do your own fisheries reforms – Strengthen your ITQ system • • • • Move away from gear/effort quotas if possible Strengthen property rights value of ITQs (duration, security) Improve the enforcement of quotas Support ITQ market and ITQ price listing (..if necessary) – Promote business attitude in the fisheries sector • Encourage investment in quality, processing and marketing • Avoid detrimental taxation • Allow ITQs as financial collateral
  • 42. • Fisheries reforms (cont.) – Be careful with vessel reduction/buy-back programs • Can easily be counter productive • Use funds generated to improve the fisheries – Press for sensible Baltic stock rebuilding programme • You have shared stocks – Press for sensible Baltic marine protection policy • Stocks, ecosystem, habitat
  • 43. OECD report on Estonian fisheries (2009) Title page photograph Fake fish?
  • 44. The title page we want to see