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MHP Budget Briefing
March 2013
The story so far             On the issues                     Party leaders                 The economy             The road to 2015



  The Times/Populus polls since the General Election


                                                                                           Cameron at Leveson
                                                                                                                                37%
                      VAT up to 20%
      EM elected
      Lab leader                          Libya intervention                      Budget 2012
                                                                                                                                29%
                        Budget 2011                                                                              Cameron
                                                            Tripoli falls
                                                                            Cameron veto          Lords reform   EU speech      23%
  CSR announced                                              Riots                                  rebellion
                   Andy Coulson resigns

                                                                                                                                12%
The story so far             On the issues                    Party leaders                 The economy             The road to 2015



  The Times/Populus polls since the General Election


                                                                                          Cameron at Leveson
                                                                                                                               37%
                      VAT up to 20%
      EM elected
      Lab leader                          Libya intervention                     Budget 2012
                                                                                                                               29%
                        Budget 2011                                                                             Cameron
                                                           Tripoli falls
                                                                           Cameron veto          Lords reform   EU speech      23%
  CSR announced                                             Riots                                  rebellion
                   Andy Coulson resigns

                                                                                                                               12%
The story so far        On the issues          Party leaders          The economy    The road to 2015



 Tory lead / deficit on the issues
                   Good team                                                                    7%
                   Clear ideas                                                                 6%
       Deal with immigration                                                                   6%
        Competent & capable                                                               4%
         Tackle welfare abuse                                                             4%
          Steer the economy                                                          1%
             Business growth                                                        0%
         Honest & principled                                          -8%
            Shares my values                                          -8%
         Balance tax & spend                                   -11%
             Improve schools                                   -11%
             Is a united party                            -14%
          For ordinary people             -24%
         Fair deficit reduction         -26%
               Look after NHS     -29%
The story so far   On the issues   Party leaders   The economy   The road to 2015



 Perceptions of the party leaders
The story so far   On the issues   Party leaders   The economy   The road to 2015



 George Osborne & Ed Balls
The story so far   On the issues         Party leaders       The economy          The road to 2015



 Economic Optimism

                                         79%
                       74%                           72%
                                   68%         69%               69% 67%   Country as a whole - badly
                                         61%               62%
                       59%         57%               55%
                                               53%         52% 54% 52%
                                                                           Me & my family - badly
                                               42%   41% 44%     42% 44%
                       38%         39%                                     Me & my family – well
                                      34%                  34%
                                   28%    27%        26%         27% 29%   Country as a whole - well
                       23%

                                     18%
The story so far      On the issues             Party leaders           The economy              The road to 2015



 Framing the debate over the deficit
                                           Plan A          Plan B

            54%             55%               55%                                 54%
                                                                51%                                 51%
                                                                49%                                 49%
            46%             45%               45%                                 46%




       March 2011       May 2011          Sep 2011          May 2012          Sep 2012          Mar 2013
                   Plan A: Britain has a severe debt crisis that threatens international confidence in our economy.
                   Every year that the country borrows money it costs taxpayers millions in interest payments. The
                   longer we go on borrowing, the more tax we pay to fund it and the less public services we can
                   afford. So, even though this means bigger spending cuts that will carry on long after the next
                   election in 2015 we need to get the country’s finances back to balance as soon as we can.

                   Plan B: Britain’s debt problem is serious and must be dealt with, but it would damage the
                   economy and public services if cuts were made too quickly. So, even it means borrowing more
                   for longer, we should slow the pace of cuts, rather than trying to deal with the problem as soon
                   as we can.
The story so far         On the issues             Party leaders        The economy             The road to 2015



 Best Economic Team
  With our economy facing challenges in the months ahead, who do you most
  trust to manage the economy in the best interests of Britain?

                   David Cameron, Nick Clegg and                   Ed Miliband and the Shadow
                   George Osborne                                  Chancellor Ed Balls?


     44%                                                42%                       42%            43%
                   41%                                         40%
                                 37%                                           36%                      38%
     33%                                                       33%             32%
                                                        28%                       27%            26% 28%
                   23%           24%
The story so far        On the issues          Party leaders   The economy       The road to 2015



 Preferred Prime Minister

                                    Prefer Cameron as PM                                52%


                                    Prefer Miliband as PM                  30%




              Satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing
                                                                     24%
                                   overall

          Dissatisfied with David Cameron - BUT prefer him
                                                                        28%
                   as Prime Minister to Ed Miliband

           Dissatisfied with David Cameron - AND prefer Ed
                                                                           30%
                      Miliband as Prime Minister

                                               Don't know         19%
MHP Budget Briefing
March 2013

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Mhp budget event 2013 presentation

  • 2. The story so far On the issues Party leaders The economy The road to 2015 The Times/Populus polls since the General Election Cameron at Leveson 37% VAT up to 20% EM elected Lab leader Libya intervention Budget 2012 29% Budget 2011 Cameron Tripoli falls Cameron veto Lords reform EU speech 23% CSR announced Riots rebellion Andy Coulson resigns 12%
  • 3. The story so far On the issues Party leaders The economy The road to 2015 The Times/Populus polls since the General Election Cameron at Leveson 37% VAT up to 20% EM elected Lab leader Libya intervention Budget 2012 29% Budget 2011 Cameron Tripoli falls Cameron veto Lords reform EU speech 23% CSR announced Riots rebellion Andy Coulson resigns 12%
  • 4. The story so far On the issues Party leaders The economy The road to 2015 Tory lead / deficit on the issues Good team 7% Clear ideas 6% Deal with immigration 6% Competent & capable 4% Tackle welfare abuse 4% Steer the economy 1% Business growth 0% Honest & principled -8% Shares my values -8% Balance tax & spend -11% Improve schools -11% Is a united party -14% For ordinary people -24% Fair deficit reduction -26% Look after NHS -29%
  • 5. The story so far On the issues Party leaders The economy The road to 2015 Perceptions of the party leaders
  • 6. The story so far On the issues Party leaders The economy The road to 2015 George Osborne & Ed Balls
  • 7. The story so far On the issues Party leaders The economy The road to 2015 Economic Optimism 79% 74% 72% 68% 69% 69% 67% Country as a whole - badly 61% 62% 59% 57% 55% 53% 52% 54% 52% Me & my family - badly 42% 41% 44% 42% 44% 38% 39% Me & my family – well 34% 34% 28% 27% 26% 27% 29% Country as a whole - well 23% 18%
  • 8. The story so far On the issues Party leaders The economy The road to 2015 Framing the debate over the deficit Plan A Plan B 54% 55% 55% 54% 51% 51% 49% 49% 46% 45% 45% 46% March 2011 May 2011 Sep 2011 May 2012 Sep 2012 Mar 2013 Plan A: Britain has a severe debt crisis that threatens international confidence in our economy. Every year that the country borrows money it costs taxpayers millions in interest payments. The longer we go on borrowing, the more tax we pay to fund it and the less public services we can afford. So, even though this means bigger spending cuts that will carry on long after the next election in 2015 we need to get the country’s finances back to balance as soon as we can. Plan B: Britain’s debt problem is serious and must be dealt with, but it would damage the economy and public services if cuts were made too quickly. So, even it means borrowing more for longer, we should slow the pace of cuts, rather than trying to deal with the problem as soon as we can.
  • 9. The story so far On the issues Party leaders The economy The road to 2015 Best Economic Team With our economy facing challenges in the months ahead, who do you most trust to manage the economy in the best interests of Britain? David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband and the Shadow George Osborne Chancellor Ed Balls? 44% 42% 42% 43% 41% 40% 37% 36% 38% 33% 33% 32% 28% 27% 26% 28% 23% 24%
  • 10. The story so far On the issues Party leaders The economy The road to 2015 Preferred Prime Minister Prefer Cameron as PM 52% Prefer Miliband as PM 30% Satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing 24% overall Dissatisfied with David Cameron - BUT prefer him 28% as Prime Minister to Ed Miliband Dissatisfied with David Cameron - AND prefer Ed 30% Miliband as Prime Minister Don't know 19%