4. Horsepower in the US economy

5. US farm population & direct fuel consumption

6. Agriculture = Greatest Human Impact on Planet
Erosion
Salinization
Deforestation
Fertilizer runoff
Loss of biodiversity
Fresh water scarcity
Pesticide pollution of water, soil

7. Average American “eats” 350 gallons of oil a year

8. Nitrogen fertilizer use in last 50 years

9. Energy used to produce & deliver 1 calorie of food

10. But oil is non-renewable
when will we face supply problems?

11. Once upon a time...

12. Marion King Hubbert
Geophysicist at Shell Lab
Taught at MIT & UCLA
Forecast peak year of US
oil production

13. Hubbert’s Peak

14. US discoveries and production

15. World oil discoveries

16. World crude oil production

17. Choose this image

18. or this image

20. e Goldilocks Effect
Oil price
Minimum oil
needed for
price likely
development
to trigger
of new oil
economic
production
recession:
capacity:
$80-100
$60-70

21. Past recessions and oil spikes

22. Relative oil and crop prices over last decade

23. Does peak oil mean peak food?

24. Elements of transition: relocalization

25. Energy efficiency of transport modes

26. Relocalization of Food Systems
Prioritize production so
that foods are mostly
sourced from close by,
with most long-distance
trade left to foods that
store well for slow travel.

27. Number of farmers’ markets in the US

28. Elements of transition: energy from the farm

29. Total energy used by US farms

30. Relocalization of Food Systems
Historically, agriculture a
net source of energy
Replace machines with
human and animal power
d where practical
Use renewable electricity
(wind solar, micro-hydro)
Biomass from ag waste

31. Elements of transition: soil fertility

32. US production of marketable phosphate rock

33. Soil fertility
Nitrogen: cover cropping
b w/ legumes (crop rotation)
Polycultures (diverse
b farming systems)
Composting all food wastes
Biochar (“terra preta”)
Phosphorus: nutrient
recycling

34. Elements of transition: diet

35. Diet
Reduce packaged and
b processed foods
Reduce meat consumption
b (avoid CAFOs)
Eat foods in season
Eat locally
De ne “food”

36. Elements of transition: farming systems

37. Farming systems
Disadvantages of feed lots
b (CAFOs)
Impacts from monocrops
Feed less grain to livestock
(grazing)
Smaller scale of operations
Urban: vertical, rooftop
gardens

38. Elements of transition: farm work

39. Portion of population engaged in agriculture

40. World energy consumption & agriculture population

41. Millions of farmers needed
Average age of US farmer:
d ~60
% US population farming:
<2% (<1% full-time)
Cuba’s transition required:
15-25% people growing food
What that means for US:
>50 million producers
in next 20 years

42. Elements of transition: seeds

43. Seeds
Today’s seed industry is
b centralized & oil dependent
GM varieties extend the
b trend
Coordinated effort to
identify open-pollinated
varieties of food crops
adapted to local soils and
micro-climates
Seed saving

44. Elements of transition: processing and distribution

45. Processing and distribution
Community supported
b agriculture (CSAs)
Farmers markets
Local processing centers
Strategic grain reserve
Shift health regulations to
support smaller producers

46. Policies required
Land reform
Education (locale-based)
Loans and other nancial
incentives
Higher and stabilized food
prices
Revitalization of farming
communities and farming
culture

48. The Fo
od & Fa
Transi ming r
Towar tion
daPost Ca
rbon F
ood Sy
stem
Post Carb
on
Decembe Institute
r 2008

49. postcarbon.org