1. Enlargement of the European UnionWhat Prospects for South-East Europe? Graham Avery United World College, Duino 7 December 2010

3. Themes The EU’s expansion from 6 to 27 Who can join the EU? What prospects for future enlargement? Countries of the Western Balkans Turkey, Iceland - and more? What prospects for future of the EU?

4. From EC-6 to EU-27 European political & economic integration 1950 Schuman Declaration of 9th May 1952 European Coal & Steel Community 1957 European Economic Community 1993 European Union For most of its existence, countries have been knocking on the door ...

5. 1952

6. 1973

7. 1981

8. 1986

9. 1990

10. 1995

11. 2004

12. 2007

13. 2010

14. Enlargement : why ? Magnetism of EU’s method of integration Expansion is driven by pressure from countries wanting to join not imperial ambition Enlargement policy is reactive, not proactive

15. Enlargement : who ? Treaty on European Union (as amended by Lisbon Treaty) Article 49: ‘Any European state which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is committed to promoting them may apply to become a member of the Union’

16. Article 2: ‘The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities. These values are common to the Member States in a society in which pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, justice, solidarity and equality between women and men prevail’

17. Copenhagen criteria 1993 Membership requires: stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities existence of functioning market economy and capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union ability to take on obligations of membership

19. Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo

20. Others aspiring to EU membership

22. Balkan peninsula

23. Western Balkans

24. Western Balkans Total population 25 million, of which: Serbia (7.3 m), Bosnia-Herzegovina (4.5 m), Croatia (4.5 m), Albania (3.6 m), FYROM/Macedonia (2.1 m), Kosovo (1.8 m), Montenegro (0.7 m) Promise of EU membership Thessaloniki 2003 But slow progress Heritage of conflict Uncertain frontiers External dependence – ‘protectorates’

25. Problems of governance: need to improve administration strengthen judiciary combat organised crime combat corruption Need to try war criminals Cooperation with International Court at Hague Progress in visa liberalisation

26. Croatia

27. Croatia Applied for EU membership 2003 Opened accession negotiations in 2004 Dispute with Slovenia over maritime border now resolved Good progress, but more reforms needed Problems of governance Prospects: conclude negotiations in 2011? join EU in 2013?

28. Macedonia

29. Macedonia/FYROM Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Applied for EU membership 2004 Obtained ‘candidate status’ 2005 Dispute with Greece over name blocks Opening of EU accession negotiations Membership of NATO

30. Serbia

31. Serbia Resentment of NATO bombing, Kosovo Conflict between European & national priorities Progress Applied for EU membership 2009 Agreed to bilateral talks with Kosovo 2010 Prospects Many reforms needed Biggest country of region EU was created on basis of reconciliation Vergangenheitsbewältigung coming to terms with the past

32. Kosovo

33. Kosovo Declaration of independence 2008 Not fully recognised by members of UN Not recognised by some EU members Spain, Slovakia, Romania, Greece, Cyprus Opinion of International Court 2010 Prospects Many reforms needed

34. Montenegro

35. Montenegro Independence from Serbia 2006 Applied for EU membership 2009 Prospects Many reforms needed

36. Albania

37. Albania Applied for EU membership 2009 Was poorest country of Europe Now making progress Prospects Many reforms needed

38. Bosnia- Herzegovina

39. Bosnia- Herzegovina Difficult situation Slowest progress of region Status of country UN ‘protectorate’ Status of RepublikaSrpska ‘state within a state’

40. Turkey Longest wait: candidate since 1987 Biggest candidate: 78m now, 90m in future Arguments in favour of membership Economic: rapid growth, labour force Political: geostrategic position - yes, but ... Problems Copenhagen criteria: minorities, civil/military relations, freedom of expression Cyprus

41. Iceland Well qualified under EU’s criteria Democracy – Europe’s oldest assembly Economy – good despite crisis Already applies many EU rules (EEA) In Schengen zone (free movement of persons) Potential problems Fisheries Public opinion in Iceland

42. Eastern Partnership

43. The EU’s final frontiers In longer term EU may consider other East European countries as potential members: Ukraine 47m,Belarus 10m, Moldova 3.6m Azerbaijan 9m, Georgia 4.4m, Armenia 3.2m Presently in EU’s Neighbourhood Policy an ‘accession-neutral’ relationship enhanced by Eastern Partnership 2009 leading to Association Agreements Russia?

44. What future for the EU? Unique experiment in economic & political integration Reconciles big & small states non-hegemonic Expansion to continental scale Europe united, whole and free Mission of 20th century no more war between EU member states Mission for 21st century project Europe’s interests & values in the world

45. Enlargement of the European UnionWhat Prospects for South-East Europe? Graham Avery United World College, Duino 7 December 2010