1. Fundamental concepts of GLOBIO and CLUE-S Methodology Denisse McLean Belize, August 2010.

2. Mean Species Abundance or MSA Single indicatorused in themethodologytoexpressbiodiversity Mean abundance of species in anarearelativeto original abundance in undisturbedstate Assignsthesamerelativeweighttoundisturbedecosystems of differentrichness New orinvasivespecies are excluded Indicator

3. Natural distribution of a representative set of species Mean Species Abundance

4. Meassure of theintactnessornaturalness of anarea Expressedon a scalebetween 0 and 100% Mean Species Abundance MSA MSA MSA Original species Original species Original species

5. Example: Forest land uses MSA Primary forest 100% Selective extraction Secondary vegetation 50% Plantations Degraded lands 0% 5

6. Land use (intensity and changes) Road infrastructure Natural area fragmentation Climate change Atmospheric Nitrogen deposition Cause-effectrelations of eachpressure has beendeterminedthroughscientificliteraturereview(Alkemade et al., 2009) Pressures evaluated in GLOBIO MSA

7. Factorsthat determine eachpressureeffect in MSA has beenidentified General impactcategoriesof factorshavebeendeterminedwiththeircorresponding MSA value or Regressionshavebeendevelopedtoestimatethevalue of theindicatoraccordingtothevalue of the factor Pressures evaluated in GLOBIO

8. Pressures evaluated in GLOBIO

9. Land use Land use intensity InfrastructureDistancetoroadsPopulationdensityEcosystemtype FragmentationIsolatedpatchsize N DepositionNitrogenExceedance ClimatechangeTemperaturechangeEcosystemtype Pressures evaluated in GLOBIO

10. MSAtot = MSAluc * MSAinfra * MSAfrag * MSAclim * MSAnitr MSA Estimation Impactlayers per pressurehavetobedetermined Spatialinformation of pressurefactorsiscompiled Informationisreclassifiedintoimpactcategories / regressions are applied Impactlayers are combined

11. Inputs Land use map Road map Ecosystem/ecorregionmap Nitrogendeposition and critical load map MSA value/regressiontables

12. 12 MSA Estimation

13. Comparison between scenarios Multiphase modeling 13

14. Comparison between scenarios Information is estimated for the 5 pressures in the future Results: Biodiversity state and distribution trends according to selected scenarios

15. Additional inputs Futureland use map Futureroadmap (ifprojections are available) Otherpressureexpectedimpacts are adjustedaccordingto new land use and roadmaps

16. CLUE modelingframework (Verburg, 2002) Modelsthedinamiccompetitionbetweendifferentland use demands in anarea and thefactorsthat determine land use allocation Iterativeprocedure Land use modeling

17. Land use modeling

18. Scenariointegration

19. Futurestatemodeling

20. Results: Trends

21. Questions and Comments Thankyou