Consumer insights and analysis in less than 30 minutes. Plus a special report on Back to School and Back to College spending!

1. The BIG Call
July 2012
PA M E L A G O O D F E L L O W
CONSUMER INSIGHTS DIRECTOR, BIGINSIGHT™
GUEST CONTRIBUTOR:
E L L E N D AV I S
S E N I O R V I C E P R E S I D E N T, N AT I O N A L R E TA I L F E D E R AT I O N
E X E C U T I V E D I R E C T O R , N R F F O U N D AT I O N
400 W. Wilson Bridge Road, Suite 200, Worthington, OH, 43085 614-846-0146 info@BIGinsight.com

2. July 2012 Consumer Survey
 July 2012 Results
• Consumer Confidence
• Employment Outlook
• Practical Purchasing
• 90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans
• Holiday 2012 Spending Preview
 Back-to-School Overview with Ellen Davis, NRF SVP
This report is derived from the following studies:
• BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, July 2012 (N = 8509, respondents surveyed 7/2 – 7/9/12)
• BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey Trends, July 2007 – July 2012
Disclaimer: BIGinsight™ is a trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp. Services are delivered by Prosper and/or a Prosper affiliated company (“Prosper”).
Prosper makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed in
producing the statistics; or the data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.
© 2012, Prosper®

3. Consumer Confidence
Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong Economy
Adults 18+
40%
 Highlights:
35% • Economic sentiment perks up
32.8%
 Up 1+ points from June
30%
 Ends two month confidence slide
31.3%
• Highest confidence reading
26.5%
25%
headed into the Back-to-School
season since Jul-07 (47.8%)
20%
15%
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUL 11-12

4. Consumer Confidence
Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong Economy
Adults 18+ 30%+
50% decline
40%
from
45% Jul-07
35% 40%
32.8%
35%
30% 30%
31.3%
25%
26.5%
25% 20%
15%
20%
10%
47.8%
18.8%
27.2%
27.9%
26.5%
31.3%
32.8%
5%
15%
0%
Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jun-12 Jul-12
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUL 07-12

5. Employment Outlook
Regarding the U.S. employment environment, over the next 6 months, do you think that there
will be more, the same, or fewer layoffs than at present?
Adults 18+  Highlights:
More Same Fewer U.S. Unemployment Rate* • One in four expecting “more”
100% 9.6% layoffs over the next six months
90% 18.7% 9.4%
 Down slightly from June
 Thinking bullishly headed into
U.S. Unemployment Rate*
80% 9.2%
holiday hiring season?
9.4%*
Layoff Predictions
70% 9.0% • Fewer than one in five calling
60%
9.1%
8.8% for “fewer” layoffs
55.4%  Figure has remained relatively
50% 8.6%
stagnant over the past three
40% 8.2% 8.4%
years
30%
8.2%
8.2% • Employment mantra = more of
20% 8.0% the “same.”
30.8% 29.6% 27.0%
10%
25.9%
7.8%  Is more of the same “good”
when the unemployment rate
0% 7.6%
remains in 8-9% territory?
Jul-10 Jul-11 Jun-12 Jul-12
• Personal concerns about
becoming laid off uptick in July
* U.S. Unemployment Rate for the previous month for each corresponding MMM-YY, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUL 10-12

6. Practical Purchasing
In the last 6 months, have you made any of the following changes?
Adults 18+
60%  Highlights:
58% • Practicality off slightly from June
56% as more consumers cite
confidence in the economy
54%
 Nearly half pragmatic in
52%
spending (47.8%)
50%  Down a few points from Jul-
48% 11 (49.9%)
46% • 56.1% are focused on just the
necessities
44%
 Up more than a point from
42%
June, but down two points
40% from a year ago
Jul-11 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul-12
• Spending Rebound?
I have become more practical and realistic in my purchases
 Not so fast: indicators
I focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT
remain well ABOVE rates
recorded before the “Great
Recession”
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUL 11-12

7. BIG Forward Look: 90 Day Spending
Over the next 90 days (July, August, and September), do you plan on spending more, the same
or less on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year?
Adults 18+
Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook
(Jul-12 compared to Jun-12, Jul-11, and Jul-10)
Category: Jun-12 Jul-11 Jul-10 Category: Jun-12 Jul-11 Jul-10
Children’s up up up Toys/Games down up up
Women’s Dress down up up CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books down up up
Women’s Casual down up up Electronics down up up
Men’s Dress down up up Groceries down up up
Men’s Casual down up up Home Improvement down up up
Shoes flat up up Lawn & Garden down up up
HBC up up up Home Furniture flat up up
Dining Out down up up Home Décor down up up
Sporting Goods down up up Linens/Bedding/Draperies down up up
Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Jun-12) or years (Jul-11, Jul-10). Diffusion Index = %
Spending More - % Spending Less.
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUL 10-12

8. Holiday 2012 Spending Preview
Based on your present situation and feelings toward the economy, which of the following best
describes your plans for the December Holiday Season?
Celebrants who have Holiday Spending Plans in Mind
 Highlights:
60%
• 28.1% say “it’s too early” to know
50%
46.3% • Among those with spending plans in
43.4% mind:
40%
 One in ten plans to spend more,
30% up from 6.5% last year
 Vast majority spending the same
20%
(46.3%) or less (43.4%)
10%
10.2% • For more, click over to the
BIG Consumer Blog
0%  Spending plans among
Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12
Generations
I plan on spending more for gifts than last year.
I plan on spending the same for gifts as last year.  Pinterest’s possible influence Gen
I plan on spending less for gifts than last year. Y’s gift decisions
 Which groups are most likely to
Generation Gap: opt for Layaway?
Holiday 2012 Spending Preview
© 2012, Prosper® Source: BIGinsight™ Monthly Consumer Survey, JUL 09-12

9. The Economy: Where We’ve Been, Where We’re Going
 Retail sales expected to grow 3.4%
this year
• First half 2012 sales grew 4.5%
• Factors behind growth
 Warm weather
 Inflation
© 2012, Prosper®

10. Back to School, Back to College 2012
 Combined
spending to
total $84 billion
 Average parent
of K-12 student
to spend about
$690
 Average parent
of college
student to spend
about $900
© 2012, Prosper®

11. Why the increase?
 Replenishment
• Replace what children
had to “make-do” with
last school season
 Population growth
• More children entering
elementary and
middle school
© 2012, Prosper®

12. Economy Remains Top of Mind
 More comparison
shopping online
 Shopping earlier
• Begin shopping at
least two months
before the start of
school:
 2007 = 14.6%
 2012 = 22.3%
 It’s not all bad news
© 2012, Prosper®

13. What’s Different This Year
 Electronics spending
• 54.0% of BTC shoppers
say they will buy a new
computer, MP3 player,
smartphone or other
device, up from 45.8%
last year.
• College freshmen will
spend the most on
electronics this back-to-
school season.
 More empty nesters
© 2012, Prosper®

14. Retailers’ Recipe for Success
Strong
promotions Lower
inventory
Earlier
marketing
© 2012, Prosper®

15. Holiday Implications
 What this tells us
 What this doesn’t
© 2012, Prosper®

16. Contact 400 W. Wilson Bridge Road
Suite 200
Worthington, OH 43085
Ph: 614-846-0146 for complimentary insights:
info@BIGinsight.com www.BIGinsight.com
National Retail Federation
Back-to-School Headquarters
www.nrf.com/backtoschool
© 2012, Prosper®