Thavone Inthavong - Laos National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute

1. Climate Risk Management
in Lao PDR
NAFRI
Thavone Inthavong
SEA: REACTi Technical Innovation Symposium
4-6th June, 2013 - Ninh Kieu 2 Hotel, Can Tho, Vietnam

2. Outline
1. Introduction
2.Climate Change in Lao PDR
Future climate scenario
The impact of climate change on crop production
3. Characterization of climate variability, water and soil nutrient
limiting crop yields
Quantifying seasonal field water availability
identify the appropriate time for start and end of the growing
season
identify the timing and severity level of water stress
Crop management recommendation
fertilizer recommendation rate for achieving yield targets
information on insects, pests and disease on rice growth stages
4. Climate risk management (agro-climate advisory)
Crop calendar
Monthly and Weekly Climate advisory report

3. Rainfed
uplands
15,3371
ha
(21%)
Irrigated
dry
season
rice
150.000
ha
(19%)
Rainfed
lowland
rice
700,000
ha
(67%)
I. Introduction
Lao PDR could be the most vulnerable
country
Agriculture is one of the most
important activities in Laos (47.2%
of total GDP and 76.3% of total
population are in the agricultural
system)
Majority of agri. activity is rainfed
lowland rice which is the main
source of food for the country
May cause wide-scale impact to
the socio-economic condition and
the farmer could be among the
most vulnerable group

4. +1 to 9% +15 to 17%
II-Climate change in Lao PDR
Baseline
(CO2=360ppm)
Average rainfall and change in the future (CCAM)
Scenario I (2040)
(CO2=540ppm)
Scenario II (2070)
(CO2=720ppm)

5. Average max. temperature and change in the future (CCAM)
- 1% +3 to 4%
Baseline
(CO2=360ppm)
Scenario I (2040)
(CO2=540ppm)
Scenario II (2070)
(CO2=720ppm)

6. - 1%
+4 to 9%
Average min. temperature and change in the future (CCAM)
Baseline
(CO2=360ppm)
Scenario I (2040)
(CO2=540ppm)
Scenario II (2070)
(CO2=720ppm)

8. The impact of future climate scenario on crop production
estimated based on DSSAT model
1.0xCO2 1.5xCO2 2.0xCO2
Thavone (Rice)
• Savannaket
Vichien (Rice)
• Onset of rains, dry spills
• Salt and sand
Similar rice yields for dry,
median and wet years
Chitnucha (Rice)
• Chiang Rai (CR)
• Sakonnakorn (SK)
• Sa Kaew (SW)
Vinai (Cassava)
• Khon Kaen
Sukit (Sugarcane)
• Khon Kaen
Sahaschai (Maize)
• Khon Kaen

9. 1
2
3 actual
attainable
potential
Yield
increasing
measures
Yield protecting
measures
defining factors:
reducing
factors:
limiting
factors:
Climate
-rainfall
-Temperature
-radiation
-crop characteristics
•physiology, phenology
•canopy architecture
Water (flood, drought)
Soil nutrients
-nitrogen
-phosphorous
-potassium
Crop management
-Weeds, pests
diseases
1500 10,0005000 20,000 Production level (kg ha-1)
Source: World Food Production: Biophysical Factors of Agricultural Production, 1992.
III-Characterization of climate variability, water and soil
nutrient limiting on crop yields

10. Department of
Meteorology
and Hydrology
National
Agriculture and
Forestry Research
Institute
Weather Forecast Division
Agricultural
vulnerability
mapping
Agro
Climate
advisories
Water availability
Flood
Drought
Characterization of
climate information
Future climate
Scenario analysis
Cropping systems
resilience
SWB, SCOPIC, APSIM
Fertilizer

11. AEZ

12. Rainfall Transpiration
Evaporation
Runoff
Seepage
Under-bund
Percolation
Lateral movementDownward movement
Soil Water Balance Model (Inthavong et al., 2009)Soil Water Balance Model (Soil Water Balance Model (Inthavong et al., 2009)

13. Start of growing
season
End of growing
season
-100.00
-50.00
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Weeks
mm
Rainfall Depth of standing water Field water storage
Soil water at FC Soil water at WP
StartLGP wk19 End LGP wk41
Flowering
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
Ralative water level (cm)
Grainyieldreduction
(%)
Early
M edium
Late
Y=-1.68X ; r2 =0.80
Start LGP End LGP LGP Flowering date Wlrel(mm) %yield reduction
19 43 25 17-Sep -74.1 12
Estimation of Yield limited by water stress

14. Deficit irrigation for nonDeficit irrigation for non--rice cropsrice crops

15. Schematic diagram for quantifying field water availability and water
stress development based on lowland water balance model
Soil dataSoil data
ClayClay
%%
DownwardDownward
(D)(D)
Climate dataClimate data
RainfallRainfall ETcETc
FIELD WATER BALANCE MODEL:FIELD WATER BALANCE MODEL: W(t)W(t)= W(t= W(t--1)+RF(t)1)+RF(t)--ETc(t)ETc(t)––D(t)D(t)--R(t)R(t)
Determination of LGPDetermination of LGP
Daily free water levelDaily free water level
Estimation probability of drought occurrenceEstimation probability of drought occurrence
Sat, FC,Sat, FC,
WP, AirWP, Air
(Saxton & Rawls)(Saxton & Rawls)
••Point based (daily)Point based (daily)
••Gridded surfaceGridded surface
(weekly)(weekly)

16. Yield limited by soil nutrients (N, P, K), and fertilizer requirement
for achieving yield targets for rainfed lowland rice
Yield limited by soil nutrients (N, P, K), and fertilizer requirYield limited by soil nutrients (N, P, K), and fertilizer requirementement
for achieving yield targets for rainfed lowland ricefor achieving yield targets for rainfed lowland rice
Quantitative Evaluation of the Fertility of
Tropical Soils and site specific nutrient
requirement (Janssen et al., 1990; Witt et
al., 1999) were applied.
Step 1: The estimation of indigenous soil
nutrient supplies
Step 2: The actual uptake of a nutrient is
calculated as a function of the potential
supply of that nutrient, and the amount of
nutrient applied as fertilizer, taking fertilizer
recovery efficiency into account.
Step 3: Estimation of yield ranges for
actual nutrient uptake
Step 4: Combination of possible yield
ranges into one yield estimate

17. Results Weekly water stored in the field
week 28
(9-15 July 2010)
week 32
(6-12 Aug 2010)
week 40
(1-7 Oct 2010)
SGP EGP LGP

18. Yield target of 3 t/ha Yield target of 4 t/ha
Nitrogen fertilizer (kg/ha)
Phosphorus fertilizer (kg/ha)

19. Examine drought development pattern
using long term of climate data (1985-2004)
Year
Outhomphone (Seno) Khanthabouri
Mean
annual
rainfall
LGP SDO Mean
annual
rainfall
LGP SDO
Start End Duration Early Mid Late Start End Duration Early Mid Late
weeks at week weeks at week
1985 1251 24 38 15 29 36 1435 22 44 23
1986 1501 20 38 19 27 33 1382 18 42 25 28
1987 1245 25 39 15 32 1253 22 44 23
1988 1483 26 37 12 30 1133 19 44 26 25 39
1989 1711 27 40 14 1497 21 44 24
1990 1894 25 41 17 1713 19 46 28
1991 1456 25 41 28 31 1538 25 45 28
1992 1255 19 39 21 25,29 1375 20 42 23
1993 1248 19 40 22 22,30 1125 19 42 24 24 41
1994 1370 19 40 22 23 39 1603 19 44 26
1995 894 28 38 11 32,37 1351 19 43 25 26
1996 1312 29 42 14 41 1940 16 44 29 23 43
1997 1046 24 37 14 27 1335 21 43 23
1998 920 34 39 6 1070 20 42 23 29 40,41
1999 1242 18 34 17 23,24 1599 15 44 30 43
2000 1489 19 41 23 23,26 33 40 1594 15 45 31 44
2001 1973 20 40 21 24 1919 17 44 28
2002 1696 19 40 22 32 1982 19 43 25
2003 1625 24 40 17 27,28 1199 20 42 23
23,24,
27,28,
29
2004 1655 19 39 21 22 1650 19 43 25
Mean 1413 20 39 20 - - - 1485 19 44 26 - - -

20. Defining wet and dry seasons
Season Average total
May-Sep rainfall
Recent examples
Dry <1135mm 2009: 1056.9mm
2007: 1082.2mm
Average 1135-1325mm 2008: 1312.7mm
Wet >1325mm 2011*: 1380.8mm
2010: 1352.1mm
*May-Aug rainfall

21. To translate the probability forecast, seasonal
water availability, including flood and drought
occurrence, as well as, provide information on
appropriate techniques that can help farmers
minimize risk, achieving maximum productivity
and enhancing their livelihoods under seasonal
climate variation
IV-Climate Risk Management through
Development of Agro- Climate Advisory

22. Crop Calendar (dry, normal and wet year)

24. Climate risk management techniques

25. Thank you for
your attention!