This document summarizes theories and factors that influence foreign policy decision making. It discusses that foreign policy is shaped by transnational actors, bureaucracies, and decision making processes within governments. Specifically, the executive branch tends to dominate foreign policy decisions due to controlling international relations. However, legislatures, courts, interest groups, and public opinion can also exert influence. Theories explored include rational choice models, bureaucratic politics, and how cognitive biases and group dynamics impact leadership decisions.

1. Chapter 3: Foreign Policy Decision Making

2. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Transnational Actors Countries International organizations Multinational corporations Nongovernmental organizations Indigenous nationalities Terrorist networks Individuals 2

3. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Foreign Policy Analysis Bureaucracies Decision-making in organizations Psychological characteristics of leaders 3

4. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Most Foreign Policy Analysis Centers on the Executive Branch The head of government is responsible for making policy The country needs to have a single voice abroad Heads of government tend to make foreign policy because they control the executive branch of government 4

5. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Legislatures and Courts in Foreign Policy The “power of the purse” Courts’ jurisdiction generally limited to domestic affairs “Pentagon Papers” 1971 5

6. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning The Rational Action Model A logical attempt to achieve an identifiable goal Calculates costs and benefits What goal does this policy serve? 6

7. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Expected Utility Theory Payoffs and profitability Does not seek optimum solution, but the policy with best ratio of payoff/probability 7

8. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Bureaucracies in Foreign Policies Department of State and Department of Defense CIA and NSA Different bureaucracies have distinct, and often competing, interests. 8

9. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning The Organizational Process Model 9 Procedures influence decision content Standard operating procedures Efficiency is goal, difficulties when dealing with unique situations

10. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Small Group Decision Making Groupthink May be caused by need for consensus 10

11. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Individual Decision Making Perception and misperception Motivated and unmotivated bias Bounded rationality 11

12. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Attribution Theory Fundamental Attribution Bias Naïve scientists Pre-existing beliefs Security dilemma 12

13. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Historical Lessons The Lessons of Munich The Lessons of Vietnam Future Lessons of Iraq? 13

14. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Other Theories of Decision-Making Prospect Theory Status quo Bias Motivated Bias Cognitive Dissonance Bolstering Two-level games Satisficing 14

15. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning A “Funnel Vision” of the Influences on International Decision Making 15

16. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Policy Making as Rational Choice Problem recognition and definition Goal selection Identification of alternatives Choice Associated with realist/state as unitary actor 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis 2003 Iraq War 16

17. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Factors Affecting Leadership Capacity Personality Degree of control over foreign policy Sense of political efficacy Amount of available information Ability to deal with crises “Great person” versus zeitgeist debate 17

18. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Influences on Foreign Policy Choice International Polarity and polarization Geographic position Domestic Military capabilities Economic conditions Type of government 18

19. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Democratic Peace Theory Asserts that democracies are more peaceful than other states. Ironically, could provide a rationale for war, because a war that instills a democracy could reduce the chances of war in the long run. 19

20. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Two Versions The Simple Democratic Peace Model The Dyadic View Structural argument Normative argument Institutional argument 20

21. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Zone of Peace European Union (EU) North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) 21

22. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Interest Groups in Foreign Policy What do they want? Money, protection, policy How do they influence foreign policy? Votes, money, lobbyists To what extent do interest groups drive foreign policy? Very influential in the U.S., varies in other states 22

23. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Public Opinion What does public opinion look like? What effect should public opinion have on policy? What effect does public opinion have on foreign policy? What influences public opinion on foreign policy? 23

24. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning The Media in Foreign Policy The businesses aspect of journalism Efforts to influence media coverage Media power: “the CNN effect” 24

25. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Three Models of Influence Rational action model Bureaucratic politics model Organizational process model 25

26. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning Geographic Influence on Foreign Policy 26

27. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning How Free is Your Country? 27