1. Opportunities for Engagement
with the University of Manchester
& Futures Diamond
UK Science and Innovation Delegation to Colombia
Bogota-Medellin-Cali, Colombia (16-20 April 2012)

2.  Fastest climber in Shanghai
Ranking
 50% increase in research grant
income since 2004
 3rd or 4th in RAE2008
– depending on measures used
 Major improvement in total third-party investment
in University intellectual property as evidenced by
the dramatic increase in
invention disclosures (up 56%) and licenses issued
(up 123%);
 Substantial transformation of the physical
infrastructure of the campus with more than £400m
invested through the largest capital programme
ever undertaken by a UK university in modern times

3. Manchester: Britain's greatest university?
It now has more working Nobel Laureates than any university in the
country – and a history of discoveries that have shaped the
world, writes Jonathan Brown - 9 October 2010

4. Dalton Nuclear Institute
Manchester Cancer Research Centre Brooks World Poverty Institute

5. Band 1
China, Europe, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and U.S.A.
Band 2
Australia, Brazil, Canada, Gulf
States, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and
Taiwan.
Band 3
Rest of the World

6. Industrial research income
Non-EU Industry
EU Industry 16%
11%
UK Industry
73%

7. http://www.umip.com
 We aim to commercialise the intellectual
property that we generate
 Our motives
 To fulfil a public mission (economic
and social impact) by ensuring that
our work is commercialised
 To attract the best academics
 To at least break-even on University
cash invested

8. 1. Research themes
2. Technology strategy and innovation management
3. Services and organisational innovation
4. Science, innovation policy and strategic
intelligence (foresight & horizon scanning)
5. Innovation and sustainability
6. Innovation, innovation systems and economic
development

9. 1. Evaluation of Science and Technology Policies
2. Foresight: Horizon-scanning and Scenarios
3. Key Issues and Strategies
4. Science Technology and Innovation Policy

10. 1. MSc Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship
2. MSc Accounting and Finance
3. MSc Analytics: Operational Research and Risk Analysis
4. MSc Chinese Business and Management
5. MSc Corporate Communications and Reputation Management
6. MSc Finance and Business Economics
7. MSc Finance
8. MBus Global Business Analysis
9. MSc Healthcare Management
10. MSc Human Resource Management and Industrial Relations
11. MSc Human Resource Management and Comparative Industrial Relations (International)
12. MSc Information Systems: Business IT
13. MSc Information Systems: e-business Technology
14. MSc Information Systems: Organisations and Management
15. MSc International Business and Management
16. MSc Management
17. MSc Managerial Psychology
18. MSc Marketing
19. MSc Operations, Project and Supply Chain Management
20. MScOrganisational Psychology
21. MSc Quantitative Finance: Financial Engineering
22. MSc Quantitative Finance: Risk Management

11.  Duration: 12 months full-time or 24 months part-time
 Our masters looks at how:
 new ideas become successful products
 entrepreneurial expertise creates growth
 companies harness knowledge to remain competitive
 knowledge shapes society and vice versa
 climate change can be tackled with new technology
 to overcome the practical challenges associated with creating a new
entrepreneurial venture
 economies can be transformed through successive gales of creative
destruction?

12. 1. Target and build-up centers of excellence in universities,
2. Bring business and HEI cultures closer by ensuring that business and
academic leaders network and that this is matched by networking at
middle rank.
3. The universities should develop concerted strategy for interacting with
business networks and helping to create new networks where they do
not exist. They should also be prepared to drop those that outlived
their purpose.
4. The City-Regional Development Agency along with businesses and
universities should consider mapping and evaluating their networks
as first step to broader proactive strategy. More systematic use made
of existing networks to get access to prime movers and shakers
nationally and worldwide.
5. Universities provide physical space for networks at their
entrepreneurial interfaces such as incubators.

13. 6. Engage locally based business education in
developing leaders and managers equipped to
work in networked knowledge capital.
7. Engage business in mentoring university staff
in terms of understanding the business
environment.
8. Focus on a knowledge-based inward
investment strategy
9. Promote the ‘Knowledge Capital’
10. Foster a ‘can-do’ culture

14.  Horizon Scanning (HS) is a structured  NEF Issues
 New
and continuous activity aimed at  Emerging
monitoring, analysing and positioning  Frontier
(MAP) ‘frontier issues’ that are
 MAP
relevant for policy, research and
 Monitoring
strategic agendas. The types of issues  Analysing
mapped by HS include new/emerging:  Positioning
trends, policies, products, services, st
 Agendas
akeholders, technologies, practices,
 Policy
behaviours, attitudes, ‘surprises’  Research
(wild cards) and ‘seeds of change’  Strategy
(weak signals).

15.  Foresight is a  Key/Emerging/Frontier Issues
 Environmental Scanning
systematic, participatory, prospecti
 Horizon Scanning
ve and policy-oriented process
 ART
which, with the support of
 Anticipating
environmental and horizon  Recommending
scanning approaches, is aimed to  Transforming
actively engage key stakeholders  TEEPSE futures
into a wide range of activities  Technological
anticipating, recommending and  Economic
transforming (ART)  Environmental
 Political
technological, economic, environm
 Social
ental, political, social and ethical  Ethical
(TEEPSE) futures.

16.  Weak Signals are ambiguous events, often  Influenced by
referred to as “seeds of change”, providing  Mental frameworks
advance intelligence or “hints” about potentially
 Subjective interpretations
important futures, e.g. Wild Cards, challenges
and opportunities. Weak Signals lie in the eye of  Limited information
the beholder and are often influenced by the  Time/Context
mental frameworks and subjective
 i3 uncertain issues
interpretations of individuals with limited
information about emerging  Interpretation
trends, developments or issues in a particular  Importance
time and context. Their “weakness” is directly  Implications
proportional to levels of uncertainty about their
interpretations, importance and implications in  Pseudo-evidence-based
the short-medium-to-long-term. Weak Signals are  Unclear observables
unclear observables warning us about the
possibility of future “game changing” events.  Creativity-based
 Game changing events

17. strategies
1st message
There are many “futures”
around us…

18. Innovation
Systems
 Our Mapping Foresight work has produced a > 1000 Mapping
vast amount of futures-related information cases mapped Foresight
unprecedented in the world > 2000
Identified Key Lessons
 Our Mapping Foresight activities have been +
useful to understand foresight practices Findings
in Europe and other world regions
846
cases mapped Mapping
> 1600 Foresight
identified &
Forecasting
767 Introducing
cases mapped Wild Cards &
> 1400 Introducing Weak Signals
identified networking (WI-WE)
(SNA) and systems
437 systemic +
cases mapped analyses Web 2.0 scanning
> 800 into +
identified Foresight
100 Bottom-up
cases mapped Evaluation
(Foresight Ark)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-2012

20. 2nd message
There are many ways
of shaping our future…

21. NEW
Foresight & Horizon Scanning
(FHS) Process Management
Framework

22. 3 4
5
1 2

23. 3rd message
We have some tools to support
foresight & horizon scanning…

24. NEW
Methodology
Toolkit 44
methodology toolkit

26. Top-Down
Horizon Scanning Horizon Scanning
Outward-Looking
Inward-Looking
Strategy 1 Strategy 2
ILTD OLTD
YOUR AREA
OF CONCERN
Horizon Scanning Horizon Scanning
Strategy 3 Strategy 4
ILBU OLBU
Bottom-Up

29. So far…
969 files
for
unregistered
users
vs.
1061 files
for
iKnow
members

30. New iKnowFuturesproposal submitted to the EC
1700+
members
in
80
countries
By 9.2.2012
Since Feb 2011

31. The iScanis
an advanced
strategic
intelligence, f
oresight and
horizon
scanning
search
engine.
A kind of
“Issues
Google”

32. 1,000+ issues
mapped against
EC FP7 Themes,
FRASCATI,
NACE sectors and
Grand Challenges

33. Mapping Wild Cards Mapping Weak Signals
Nomination Nomination
1. source 1. source
2. theme 2. theme
3. sub-theme 3. sub-theme
4. references 4. references
5. short name / headline 5. short name / headline
6. Abstract 6. abstract
likelihood Description
18
7.
Description 1. manifestation
1. typology 2. potential implications
2. importance 3. importance
Analysis Analysis
early indicators 1. filters
criteria
1.
2. main drivers 2. main drivers
3. risks & opportunities 3. risks & opportunities
4. stakeholders’ actions 4. stakeholders’ actions
Interconnection Interconnection
1. Grand Challenges 1. Grand Challenges
2. thematic relevance 2. thematic relevance
3. ERA relevance 3. ERA relevance
4. research-friendly strategies 4. research-friendly strategies
5. RTD & STI policy relevance 5. RTD & STI policy relevance

34. Delphi results on September 2011
60 60 900+ ISSUES.
Key facts 4000+ assessments to
and
figures 60 Wild Cards
700+
respondents
2500+ assessments to
60 Weak Signals

35. Wild Cards Delphi
Wild Cards headline navigation panel
Comments & full preview
Description & Desirability
Issue
Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking
Importance for STI policy in Your Country & EU
assessment
1- Physical infrastructure
Potential 2 - Virtual infrastructure
impacts on 3 - Social welfare
(in Your Country 4 - Economy
platform & the EU)
Preparedness
5 - Security
6 - Policy & governance
7 - Environment & ecosystems
(iDelphi)
ERA relevance 8 - STI systems
Policy advice
Current signals indicating WI plausibility
Future signals indicating WI plausibility
Wild Cards headline navigation panel
Analysis & Submission panels

36. CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars
AGR Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change
CAP Administration rather than results a priority
SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security
NUC Development of new materials
Weak ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world
Signals SPA Privatisation of space flights
NAN Implantable electronics leaving no trace
40%
SSH Concerns over socio-economic and humanities research "downgrade"
NUC Small-scale nuclear power plant operating
match CAP
CAP
Lack of interest in science by young scholars
Administration rather than results a priority
Top 10 SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security
Weak ICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform
Signals ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world
for ICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications
AGR Bees be no more, less food than before
UK ENV
ENV
Growing environmental legal class actions on no-win no-fee basis
Emergence of secondary carbon financial vehicles
HEA Increasing Self-Medication

37. Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures
Social welfare Economy
Security Policy & governance
Environment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems
Suicide bombing in
Stockholm Sec Pol SoW
100%
Ph-I
Env 75%
Sec
50%
No strict global rules Growing privatisation Sec Pol Eco
on nuclear security 25% of war
0%
Scientists predict
Nuclear power plants
mobile phone viruses Sec STI
Vi-I Eco Sec built in third world Eco
will become a serious
countries
threat

39. We promote knowledge transfer
and dissemination of key results
National Expert Policy ERA
Studies Interviews Alerts Toolkit

40. From farmer to consumer: Diversifying crop
production and consumption.
Overreliance on a few core crops (e.g. wheat)
makes food production and consumption
vulnerable to any type of disruption. Were a new
wheat disease to develop it could have severe
implications for food markets worldwide, which
could have unforeseen consequences such as
starvation, civil unrest and high food prices.
There is a need to prepare for diversifying food
production and consumption in order to avoid
such consequences. Farmers need to be assisted
in order to better diversify their crops and
consumers should be made aware of a greater
variety of food products…

41. New Horizon Scanning System
delivering products & services
which meet the needs of senior
leaders and workforce planners
in health & social care in the UK
Research Technology Development
Networked
Innovation

42. Foresight: Exploring the Future, Shaping the Present
A course for sponsors and practitioners of foresight
25th June - 29th June 2012
 The course is aimed at:  Course directors
 sponsors of foresight projects  Prof Ian Miles
 foresight practitioners  Dr Rafael Popper
 entrepreneurs  Dr OzcanSaritas
 senior managers
 company directors
 Course fee
 The full residential fee is £1,950 per person fee includes all the course
materials, accommodation for five nights (June 26th to June 30th inclusive) and all meals.
 Discount for early bookings and Colombian nationals
 This year we are offering a discount to participants whose application is received before
16th April. For applications received by this date the course fee will be reduced to £1,800
GBP. Colombian nationals will receive the same discount for registrations before 22nd May.
 Registration
 Please use the downloadable registration form and return it to Lisa Gledhill by
fax to +44 161-275-0923 or email lisa.gledhill@mbs.ac.uk