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Revitalize Your Brand
in a Data-rich, Hyper-connected World
Ravi Bapna
Professor of Information Systems | Carlson School of Management
Co-director | Social Media & Business Analytics Collaborative (SOBACO)

@ravibapna
@SOBACO_UMN
Your brand . . .
. . . embedded in the digital world.
                   search & display



                                      mobile
   communities




                                      social
          crowds



                       Big Data
You can’t manage
what you can’t measure
You can’t improve
what you can’t measure
In the next 20 minutes…


1   Connected


2 Big Data rich

3 Measurable
Billion+ people on the social graph




               Flickr users, top: FaceMePls, DaveLawler, OneLaptopperChild. Below: gckphoto, sekihan, Rah.JY, djking.
Doing what they
like to do




                  Flickr user: circulating
Addiction?
66% of smartphone users
sleep with a phone next to them




                            Telenav Study, August 2011

                             Flickr user: wanderingone
Which would you rather give up?
                                                    Flickr user BuzzFarmers
                                                Telenav Study, August 2011




             or


 cellphone        caffeine      55%
                             give up caffeine
Which would you rather give up?
                                                   Flickr user BuzzFarmers
                                               Telenav Study, August 2011




             or


 cellphone        alcohol
                  caffeine      70%
                             give up alcohol
Which would you rather give up?
                                          Flickr user BuzzFarmers
                                      Telenav Study, August 2011




             or


 cellphone        sex    33%
                        give up sex
Social revolution on the Internet

     1000
                                                   Job search

       800                                            Politics
                                                      Beauty
       600
                                                           …

       400                                          Research
                                                  Newspapers
       200
                                                      Photos

            0                                       Lifestyles
                             E-mail    Social         Social
                                      Platforms
                                                                 0    20 40 60 80 100
                       2009 Users (million)
                                                               Number of site visits (index)
                       2010 Users (million)


Courtesy: Misiek Piskorski
Leaving a rich trail of datarich trail of data
                 Leaving a
Sources



 enterprise systems                social media            mobile
• Customer Relationship    • API                  • Mobile web
  Management (CRM)         • Text mining          • Apps
• Manufacturing Resource
                                                  • SMS
  Planning (MRP)
                                                  • Geolocation
• Finance resource
  management (FRP)
• Supply Chain
  Management (SCM)
• Human Resource
  Management (HRM)
The Internet of Things
It’s a 8 step journey!




Courtesy: David Hardoon@SAS
Uniquely, individually measureableof data
                 Leaving a rich trail
What do we measure?
Metrics   • Keyword and campaign efficacy
          • Audience behavior and ad effectiveness
          • Sentiment analysis and economic Impact
          • Cross-media and cross-device effects
          • Social network characteristics



                             • Peer influence          Constructs
                             • Engagement
                             • Trust and reciprocity
                             • Predictive accuracy
FEAR
(greed to follow)




             Flickr user: Jim Grady
United’s nightmare


        http://www.youtube.com/watch?
        v=5YGc4zOqozo&feature=playe
        r_embedded




                                        Flickr user: Paul J.S.
United’s nightmare

$3,500 guitar

3 million views in 1 week

$180 million estimated
negative impact on brand


                            Flickr user: Paul J.S.
Go on the offense: 5 ideas to get started

1   Define a strategic goal

2   Create a social graph of customers

3   Identify influencers, sub-communities

4   Detect peer influence

5   Truly understand, predict and optimize
Go on the offense: 5 ideas to get started

1   Define a strategic goal
1   Define a strategic goal

2   Create a social graph of customers

3   Identify influencers, sub-communities
Four decades of consumer engagement


 1980’s                    1990’s           2000’s          2010’s




    Single                Segmentation      Customization   Socially
   message                                                   linked




Courtesy Rob Cain, CIO, Coca Cola Company
Different ways to organize 100 people
Many types of centrality
Centrality is not enough…

        B



  A         C
                D
Think beyond individuals




3 and 5 together are more influential than 10
Density and clustering




Network structure can help identify sub-populations
         that can be targeted differently
Your homework




Analyze your own network
http://apps.facebook.com/touchgraph
Brand Mapping using Text Mining




Courtesy: Ghose et al, New York University
Product Co-occurrence Data
Message #1199 Civic vs.                        Audi A6                      Honda Civic              252
Corolla by mcmanus Jul 21,                     Audi A6                      Toyota Corolla           101
2007 (4:05 pm)                                 Honda Civic                  Audi 6                   252
Yes DrFill, the Honda car model is             Honda Civic                  Toyota Corolla           2762
sporty, reliable, and economical vs            Toyota Corolla               Audi A6                  101
the Corolla that is just reliable and          Toyota Corolla               Honda Civic              2762
economical. Ironically its Toyota
that is supplying 1.8L turbo ... Neon
to his 16 year old brother. I drove it            Associative Network
about 130 miles today. Boy does
that put all this Civic vs. Corolla
back in perspective! The Neon is
                                                                                             Toyota
very crudely designed and built,                                Audi A6   Honda Civic
                                                                                             Corolla
with no low ...
                                               Audi A6            ---        252              101

                                              Honda Civic        252          ---             2762

                                                Toyota
                                                                 101         2762              ---
                                                Corolla

                                                                 P(A, B)
                                                  lift(A, B) =
 Courtesy: Ghose et al, New York University
                                                               P(A) ´ P(B)
The Car Models Network




                                                              Spring embedded
                                                             Kamada Kawai graph

                                             only ties with significant lifts
Courtesy: Ghose et al, New York University
                                             ( 2 p.value<0.01) are included
1   Define a strategic goal

2   Create a social graph of customers

3   Identify influencers, sub-communities

4   Detect peer influence
Behavior of friends is correlated in time and space


  Did you buy an iPhone?               Did your friends?



               iPhone 4 debut, Paris      iPad 2 debut, Beijing




Photos courtesy Chris Dellarocas
Detecting Peer Effects Causally
               Last.fm Free-to-Fee Problem



Freemium >     SubscriberFriendCnt   0.65    2.85   0   0.00   0.00   541.00




Subscribed >   SubscriberFriendCnt   2.85   10.35   0   1.00   0.00   709.00
Do friends influence their friends to pay?




© 1983 by MGM/UA Entertainment Co.
Or, do birds of a feather flock together?




Flickr user: Kevin Krejci
Do friends (causally) influence their friends to pay?




                                                Flickr user: The Reboot
Experimental Design




1.   Randomly select 2000 users from the network
2.   Half of them get the gift from us (group M) and half of them get no gift from us
     (group NM)
3.   Wait for a few weeks
4.   Check if there is a significant difference in adoptions between friends of M and
     friends of NM.
In the Last.fm case


Freemium >     SubscriberFriendCnt      0.65    2.85   0   0.00   0.00   541.00




          50%                        Higher likelihood of adoption
                                     if friend adopts
Subscribed >   SubscriberFriendCnt      2.85   10.35   0   1.00   0.00   709.00
1 Define a strategic goal
2 Create a social graph of customers
3 Identify influencers, sub-communities
4 Detect peer influence
The Holy Grail
5  Truly understand, predict and optimize
Business models based on


TRUST

                           Flickr user: tvangoethem
You will be asked to log into Facebook. Getaround is a
community built on trust and by connecting with Facebook,
you enable safe and open sharing.
Flickr user: ericarhiannon
Design a viral incentive scheme
                  for this service
Viral schemes based on

                     A LT R U I S M


Calvin and Hobbes © Bill Watterson
Find your path to becoming
a social brand that matters

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Building a Socially Savvy Brand

  • 1. Revitalize Your Brand in a Data-rich, Hyper-connected World Ravi Bapna Professor of Information Systems | Carlson School of Management Co-director | Social Media & Business Analytics Collaborative (SOBACO) @ravibapna @SOBACO_UMN
  • 3. . . . embedded in the digital world. search & display mobile communities social crowds Big Data
  • 4. You can’t manage what you can’t measure
  • 5. You can’t improve what you can’t measure
  • 6. In the next 20 minutes… 1 Connected 2 Big Data rich 3 Measurable
  • 7. Billion+ people on the social graph Flickr users, top: FaceMePls, DaveLawler, OneLaptopperChild. Below: gckphoto, sekihan, Rah.JY, djking.
  • 8. Doing what they like to do Flickr user: circulating
  • 10. 66% of smartphone users sleep with a phone next to them Telenav Study, August 2011 Flickr user: wanderingone
  • 11. Which would you rather give up? Flickr user BuzzFarmers Telenav Study, August 2011 or cellphone caffeine 55% give up caffeine
  • 12. Which would you rather give up? Flickr user BuzzFarmers Telenav Study, August 2011 or cellphone alcohol caffeine 70% give up alcohol
  • 13. Which would you rather give up? Flickr user BuzzFarmers Telenav Study, August 2011 or cellphone sex 33% give up sex
  • 14.
  • 15. Social revolution on the Internet 1000 Job search 800 Politics Beauty 600 … 400 Research Newspapers 200 Photos 0 Lifestyles E-mail Social Social Platforms 0 20 40 60 80 100 2009 Users (million) Number of site visits (index) 2010 Users (million) Courtesy: Misiek Piskorski
  • 16. Leaving a rich trail of datarich trail of data Leaving a
  • 17. Sources enterprise systems social media mobile • Customer Relationship • API • Mobile web Management (CRM) • Text mining • Apps • Manufacturing Resource • SMS Planning (MRP) • Geolocation • Finance resource management (FRP) • Supply Chain Management (SCM) • Human Resource Management (HRM)
  • 18. The Internet of Things
  • 19. It’s a 8 step journey! Courtesy: David Hardoon@SAS
  • 20. Uniquely, individually measureableof data Leaving a rich trail
  • 21. What do we measure? Metrics • Keyword and campaign efficacy • Audience behavior and ad effectiveness • Sentiment analysis and economic Impact • Cross-media and cross-device effects • Social network characteristics • Peer influence Constructs • Engagement • Trust and reciprocity • Predictive accuracy
  • 22. FEAR (greed to follow) Flickr user: Jim Grady
  • 23. United’s nightmare http://www.youtube.com/watch? v=5YGc4zOqozo&feature=playe r_embedded Flickr user: Paul J.S.
  • 24. United’s nightmare $3,500 guitar 3 million views in 1 week $180 million estimated negative impact on brand Flickr user: Paul J.S.
  • 25. Go on the offense: 5 ideas to get started 1 Define a strategic goal 2 Create a social graph of customers 3 Identify influencers, sub-communities 4 Detect peer influence 5 Truly understand, predict and optimize
  • 26. Go on the offense: 5 ideas to get started 1 Define a strategic goal
  • 27. 1 Define a strategic goal 2 Create a social graph of customers 3 Identify influencers, sub-communities
  • 28. Four decades of consumer engagement 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s Single Segmentation Customization Socially message linked Courtesy Rob Cain, CIO, Coca Cola Company
  • 29. Different ways to organize 100 people
  • 30. Many types of centrality
  • 31. Centrality is not enough… B A C D
  • 32. Think beyond individuals 3 and 5 together are more influential than 10
  • 33. Density and clustering Network structure can help identify sub-populations that can be targeted differently
  • 34. Your homework Analyze your own network http://apps.facebook.com/touchgraph
  • 35. Brand Mapping using Text Mining Courtesy: Ghose et al, New York University
  • 36. Product Co-occurrence Data Message #1199 Civic vs. Audi A6 Honda Civic 252 Corolla by mcmanus Jul 21, Audi A6 Toyota Corolla 101 2007 (4:05 pm) Honda Civic Audi 6 252 Yes DrFill, the Honda car model is Honda Civic Toyota Corolla 2762 sporty, reliable, and economical vs Toyota Corolla Audi A6 101 the Corolla that is just reliable and Toyota Corolla Honda Civic 2762 economical. Ironically its Toyota that is supplying 1.8L turbo ... Neon to his 16 year old brother. I drove it Associative Network about 130 miles today. Boy does that put all this Civic vs. Corolla back in perspective! The Neon is Toyota very crudely designed and built, Audi A6 Honda Civic Corolla with no low ... Audi A6 --- 252 101 Honda Civic 252 --- 2762 Toyota 101 2762 --- Corolla P(A, B) lift(A, B) = Courtesy: Ghose et al, New York University P(A) ´ P(B)
  • 37. The Car Models Network Spring embedded Kamada Kawai graph only ties with significant lifts Courtesy: Ghose et al, New York University ( 2 p.value<0.01) are included
  • 38. 1 Define a strategic goal 2 Create a social graph of customers 3 Identify influencers, sub-communities 4 Detect peer influence
  • 39. Behavior of friends is correlated in time and space Did you buy an iPhone? Did your friends? iPhone 4 debut, Paris iPad 2 debut, Beijing Photos courtesy Chris Dellarocas
  • 40. Detecting Peer Effects Causally Last.fm Free-to-Fee Problem Freemium > SubscriberFriendCnt 0.65 2.85 0 0.00 0.00 541.00 Subscribed > SubscriberFriendCnt 2.85 10.35 0 1.00 0.00 709.00
  • 41. Do friends influence their friends to pay? © 1983 by MGM/UA Entertainment Co.
  • 42. Or, do birds of a feather flock together? Flickr user: Kevin Krejci
  • 43. Do friends (causally) influence their friends to pay? Flickr user: The Reboot
  • 44. Experimental Design 1. Randomly select 2000 users from the network 2. Half of them get the gift from us (group M) and half of them get no gift from us (group NM) 3. Wait for a few weeks 4. Check if there is a significant difference in adoptions between friends of M and friends of NM.
  • 45. In the Last.fm case Freemium > SubscriberFriendCnt 0.65 2.85 0 0.00 0.00 541.00 50% Higher likelihood of adoption if friend adopts Subscribed > SubscriberFriendCnt 2.85 10.35 0 1.00 0.00 709.00
  • 46. 1 Define a strategic goal 2 Create a social graph of customers 3 Identify influencers, sub-communities 4 Detect peer influence The Holy Grail 5 Truly understand, predict and optimize
  • 47. Business models based on TRUST Flickr user: tvangoethem
  • 48. You will be asked to log into Facebook. Getaround is a community built on trust and by connecting with Facebook, you enable safe and open sharing.
  • 50. Design a viral incentive scheme for this service
  • 51. Viral schemes based on A LT R U I S M Calvin and Hobbes © Bill Watterson
  • 52. Find your path to becoming a social brand that matters
  • 53. Social Media & Business Analytics Collaborative @SOBACO_UMN carlsonschool.umn.edu/sobaco MAY Our Data, Ourselves Ramayya Krishnan 3 Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University NOV Social Media and Data Analytics for Digital Marketing 20-22 Carlson Executive Education Ravi Bapna & Anindya Ghose

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YGc4zOqozo&amp;feature=player_embedded
  2. Transitivity- many of the most interesting and basic questions of social structure arise with regard to triads. Triads allow for a much wider range of possible sets of relations.With un-directed data, there are four possible types of triadic relations (no ties, one tie, two ties, or all three ties).  Counts of the relative prevalence of these four types of relations across all possible triples (that is a &quot;triad census&quot;) can give a good sense of the extent to which a population is characterized by &quot;isolation,&quot; &quot;couples only,&quot; &quot;structural holes&quot; (i.e. where one actor is connected to two others, who are not connected to each other), or &quot;clusters.&quot;