Contenu connexe Similaire à 2014 Housing Market and Economy Forecast (20) Plus de Ronny Budiutama (20) 2014 Housing Market and Economy Forecast17. US Sales of Existing Homes
Aug.2013 Sales: 5,480,000 Units, +12.1% YTD, +13.2% YTY
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
SERIES: Existing Home Sales
SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
22. CA Median Monthly Mortgage Payment
What Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase?
MONTHLY MORTGAGE
$2,000
$1,600
$1,402
Q2‐2013 Median Price $415,770
20% Downpayment
$1,494
$1,588
$1,994
$1,786
$1,889
$2,102
$1,685
$1,200
$800
$400
$0
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
INTEREST RATE
SERIES: Housing Affordability Index
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
23. CA Minimum Qualifying Income
What Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase?
Q2‐2013 Median Price $415,770
MONTHLY MORTGAGE
20% Downpayment
$120,000
$100,000
$75,218
$78,869
$82,644
$86,538
$90,548
$94,668
$98,893
$103,220
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
INTEREST RATE
SERIES: Housing Affordability Index
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
27. California’s Housing Cycles and Membership
• 1970‐2012
700,000
Home Sales
250,000
Membership
600,000
200,000
500,000
150,000
400,000
300,000
100,000
200,000
50,000
100,000
‐
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
0
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
28. CA Sales of Existing Detached Homes
August 2013 Sales: 434,700 Units, ‐3.2% YTD, ‐1.9% YTY
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
‐
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
36. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
• California, August 2013: $441,330, Up 28.4% YTY
$700,000
P: May‐07
$594,530
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$‐
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
T: Feb‐09
$245,230
‐59% from
peak
44. California Foreclosure Filings, August 2013
• NTS: 8,223, ‐54.7% YTD • NOD: 8,189, ‐59.1% YTD
70,000
Notice of Trustee Sale ‐ Counts
Notice of Defaults ‐ Counts
60,000
6 Month Average:
50,000
NTSs: 8,225
40,000
NODs: 9,012
30,000
20,000
10,000
SERIES: Foreclosure Filings
SOURCE: PropertyRadar.com
May‐13
Jan‐13
Sep‐12
May‐12
Jan‐12
Sep‐11
May‐11
Jan‐11
Sep‐10
May‐10
Jan‐10
Sep‐09
May‐09
Jan‐09
Sep‐08
May‐08
Jan‐08
Sep‐07
May‐07
Jan‐07
0
45. California Foreclosure Inventories, Aug. 2013
• Preforeclosure: ‐48% YTD • Schedule for Sale: ‐62% YTD • Bank Owned: ‐36% YTD
180,000
Preforeclosure
Scheduled for Sale
Bank Owned
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
6 Month Average:
60,000
Preforeclosure: 45,733
40,000
Schedule for Sale: 28,245
20,000
Bank Owned: 46,247
SERIES: Foreclosure Inventories
SOURCE: PropertyRadar.com
May‐13
Jan‐13
Sep‐12
May‐12
Jan‐12
Sep‐11
May‐11
Jan‐11
Sep‐10
May‐10
Jan‐10
Sep‐09
May‐09
Jan‐09
Sep‐08
May‐08
Jan‐08
Sep‐07
May‐07
Jan‐07
0
60. Median Down Payment: 20%
Tight Underwriting & Prices Gains
Median Down Payment
% of Down Payment to Price
$90,000
25%
$80,000
20%
$70,000
20%
$70,000
$60,000
15%
$50,000
$40,000
10%
$30,000
$20,000
5%
$10,000
0%
$0
2005
2006
2007
Q. What was the amount of downpayment?
2008
SERIES: 2013 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
71. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
• Northern CA, August 2013: $294,020, Up 22.9% YTY
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$‐
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
Jan‐12
72. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
• Northern California Counties
County
Aug‐13
Jul‐13
Aug‐12
Butte
Del Norte
Glenn
Humbolt
Lake
Nevada
Placer
Plumas
Shasta
Siskiyou
Sutter
Tehama
Yolo
Yuba
•
$281,820
$100,000
$135,000
$247,220
$153,330
$339,500
$361,830
$195,000
$203,650
$140,000
$202,000
$493,950
$667,590
$186,000
$239,280
$155,000
$140,000
$267,050
$141,430
$323,000
$372,220
$249,000
$201,350
$140,000
$212,500
$507,500
$668,750
$170,500
$226,090
NA
$160,000
$218,750
$125,560
$245,000
$288,030
$267,250
$165,480
$127,270
NA
$439,990
$615,400
NA
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
M‐t‐M
Y‐t‐Y
17.8% 24.6%
‐35.5%
NA
‐3.6% ‐15.6%
‐7.4% 13.0%
8.4% 22.1%
5.1% 38.6%
‐2.8% 25.6%
‐21.7% ‐27.0%
1.1% 23.1%
0.0% 10.0%
‐4.9%
NA
‐2.7% 12.3%
‐0.2% 8.5%
9.1%
NA
79. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
• Northern Wine Country, Aug. 2013: $449,010, Up 19.5% YTY
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$‐
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
Jan‐12
83. Sales of Existing Detached Homes
• Bay Area, Aug. 2013: 4,221 Units, ‐3.7% YTD, ‐0.8% YTY
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
Jan‐12
Jan‐13
85. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
• Bay Area, August 2013: $704,830, Up 24.1% YTY
$900,000
$800,000
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$‐
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
Jan‐12
86. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
• Bay Area Counties
•
County
Aug‐13
Jul‐13
Aug‐12
M‐t‐M
Y‐t‐Y
Alameda
Contra Costa (Central County)
Marin
Napa
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Solano
Sonoma
$654,060
$808,560
$987,740
$565,970
$871,480
$980,000
$805,000
$295,890
$453,790
$662,040
$789,010
$1,000,000
$511,900
$842,550
$919,000
$840,000
$279,330
$473,640
$539,820
$628,290
$806,450
$385,710
$692,980
$777,500
$666,750
$202,240
$385,610
‐1.2%
2.5%
‐1.2%
10.6%
3.4%
6.6%
‐4.2%
5.9%
‐4.2%
21.2%
28.7%
22.5%
46.7%
25.8%
26.0%
20.7%
46.3%
17.7%
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
90. Sales of Existing Detached Homes
• Central Valley, Aug.2013 Sales: 4,477 Units, ‐10.5% YTD, ‐11.4% YTY
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
‐
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
93. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
• Central Valley Counties
County
Amador
Calavaras
El Dorado
Fresno
Kern (Bakersfield)
Kings County
Madera
Merced
Placer County
Sacramento
San Benito
San Joaquin
Stanislaus
Tulare
Aug‐13
$213,890
$220,000
$355,840
$184,000
$200,000
$184,000
$170,000
$155,880
$361,830
$257,660
$387,000
$231,390
$203,120
$158,460
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jul‐13
$196,670
$227,000
$350,760
$183,870
$195,000
$173,330
$175,710
$163,080
$372,220
$254,550
$400,000
$225,000
$193,920
$157,140
Aug‐12
$175,000
NA
$268,380
$151,110
$155,000
$153,330
$127,500
$123,330
$288,030
$184,000
$335,000
$168,120
$147,850
$133,560
M‐t‐M
8.8%
‐3.1%
1.4%
0.1%
2.6%
6.2%
‐3.2%
‐4.4%
‐2.8%
1.2%
‐3.3%
2.8%
4.7%
0.8%
Y‐t‐Y
22.2%
NA
32.6%
21.8%
29.0%
20.0%
33.3%
26.4%
25.6%
40.0%
15.5%
37.6%
37.4%
18.6%
99. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
• Central Coast, August 2013: $474,780, Up 23.7% YTY
$800,000
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$‐
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
Jan‐12
100. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
• Central Coast Counties
•
County
Aug‐13
Jul‐13
Aug‐12
M‐t‐M
Y‐t‐Y
Monterey
San Luis Obispo
Santa Barbara
Santa Cruz
$407,000
$477,420
$625,000
$629,000
$408,800
$491,790
$598,680
$601,000
$317,500
$386,180
$533,330
$540,000
‐0.4%
‐2.9%
4.4%
4.7%
28.2%
23.6%
17.2%
16.5%
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
104. Sales of Existing Detached Homes
• Southern CA Aug‐13 Sales: 11,977 Units, ‐2.0% YTD, ‐4.1% YTY
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
105. Sales of Existing Detached Homes
• Southern California Counties
County
Aug‐13
Jul‐13
Aug‐12
M‐t‐M
Y‐t‐Y
Y‐t‐D
Los Angeles
Orange County
Riverside County
San Bernardino
San Diego
Ventura
Santa Barbara
3,697
1,706
2,082
1,368
2,259
618
247
3,687
1,855
2,039
1,269
2,324
623
242
3,928
1,795
2,177
1,341
2,361
648
244
0.3%
‐8.0%
2.1%
7.8%
‐2.8%
‐0.8%
2.1%
‐5.9%
‐5.0%
‐4.4%
2.0%
‐4.3%
‐4.6%
1.2%
‐1.7%
4.7%
‐10.9%
‐5.6%
5.5%
0.7%
‐5.0%
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
106. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
• Southern California, Aug.2013: $419,340, +24.6% YTY
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$‐
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
107. Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
• Southern California Region
County
Aug‐13
Jul‐13
Aug‐12
M‐t‐M
Y‐t‐Y
Los Angeles
Orange County
Riverside County
San Bernardino
San Diego
Ventura
Santa Barbara
$444,950
$664,580
$290,030
$183,240
$482,470
$555,560
$625,000
$421,350
$675,000
$294,300
$180,270
$483,800
$545,720
$598,680
$344,770
$567,710
$227,740
$143,470
$389,540
$437,880
$533,330
5.6%
‐1.5%
‐1.5%
1.6%
‐0.3%
1.8%
4.4%
29.1%
17.1%
27.4%
27.7%
23.9%
26.9%
17.2%
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
111. U.S. Economic Outlook 2014
Indicator
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013p 2014f
US GDP
‐0.3%
‐3.4%
2.4%
1.8%
2.2%
1.8%
2.8%
Nonfarm Job Growth
‐0.6%
‐4.4%
‐0.7%
1.2%
1.7%
1.6%
1.7%
Unemployment
5.8%
9.3%
9.6%
8.9%
8.1%
7.5%
7.0%
CPI
Real Disposable
Income, % Change
3.8%
‐0.4%
1.6%
3.1%
2.1%
1.6%
2.0%
0.5%
0.9%
1.8%
1.3%
1.5%
1.0%
3.0%
SERIES: U.S. Economic Outlook
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
112. California Economic Outlook 2014
Indicator
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013p 2014f
Nonfarm Job Growth
‐1.3%
‐6.0%
1.1%
1.6%
2.2%
1.9%
Unemployment Rate
7.2%
11.3% 12.3% 11.8%
10.5%
9.0%
8.3%
Population Growth
Real Disposable
Income, % Change
0.8%
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.9%
0.9%
1.5%
‐3.9%
1.0%
1.9%
1.1%
0.9%
3.0%
SERIES: CA Economic Outlook
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
‐1.1%
114. California Housing Market Outlook
Indicator
SFH Resales (000s)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013p 2014f
416.5
422.6
439.4
430.3
444.0
30.4% 24.5% ‐12.3%
1.4%
4.0%
‐2.1%
3.2%
Median Price ($000s) $348.5 $275.0 $305.0 $286.0
$319.3 $408.6
$432.8
% Change
‐6.2%
11.6%
28.0%
6.0%
% Change
381.4
474.9
‐37.8% ‐21.1% 10.9%
30‐Yr FRM
6.0%
5.0%
4.7%
4.5%
3.7%
4.1%
5.3%
1‐Yr ARM
5.2%
4.7%
3.8%
3.0%
2.7%
2.7%
3.1%
SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
126. Most Buyers and Sellers Interviewed
Multiple Agents before Selecting One
Buyers
4 agent,
15%
Seller
1 agent,
30%
3 agent,
18%
6 agents,
12%
5 agents, 17%
2 agent,
38%
4 agents,
24%
1 agent,
12%
2 agents,
13%
3 agents,
21%
Q. How many agents did you interview prior to selecting the agent you used in your recent home purchase?
Source: C.A.R. 2012 Buyer and Seller Surveys