End-Use Energy Efficiency: National Plan for Regional Energy Challenge 26 - 27 July, 2010

1. Construction of a set of indicators for monitoring
energy efficiency in the SEMCs
- Plan Bleu project -
End Use Energy Efficiency: National Plans
for Regional Energy Challenges
Tunis, 26th – 27th, July, 2010
by El Habib EL ANDALOUSSI
Programme Officer- Energy,
Plan Bleu

2. Plan of the presentation
Energy context in the SEMCs
Objectifves and expected results of the study
Steps of the study
Organisation of the study

3. Demography and Economy in the SEMCs
Population growth
2.2%/y between
1971 & 2008.
(from 125 to 282
millions in 2008
in the SEMCs)
GDP growth
4%/year between
1971 & 2007.
(from $440b to
$1954b in 2007
in the SEMCs)

4. Energy intensity in 2006 ( toe per GDP unit - Millions of euros 2005 ppp)
Source : WDI, IEA, Plan Bleu computation

5. Energy situation in the SEMCs
Total Final Enegy
Consumption cin
the SEMCs :
- by Sector
- by Source

6. CO2 Emissions in the SEMCs
CO2 Emissions by Sector in the SEMCs

7. Energy situation in the SEMCs
Sustained growth in demand in SEMCs
 Electricity: nearly 4% per year between 2007 and 2030
 Primary Energy Demand: 3% per year
SEMCs Energy Demand (Mtoe ) % annual growth
Reference Scenario 1970 2007 2030 1970-2007 2007-2030
Primary Energy Demand 44 306 626 5.4% 3.2%
Total Final Cons. (TFC) 35 213 429 5.0% 3.1%
Transport 10 57 95 4.9% 2,.%
Residential 12 53 125 4.1% 3.8%
Industry 9 67 137 5.6% 3.1%
Other cons. 4 34 73 6.1% 3.4%
Power Production (TWh) 32 534 1302 7.9% 3.9%
CO2 Emissions (Mt) 65 775 1535 6.9% 3.0%

8. Energy situation in the SEMCs
Increased energy
dependency

9. Needs for energy efficiency policies
Need to put in place accelerated
energy efficiency policies
Need for methodologies and
tools for monitoring and
evaluation of energy demand
side management policies.
About 90 Mtoe

10. Objectives and expected results of the study
Strengthening the capacity of SEMCs in monitoring their energy
policies by using the indicator approach to energy management.
Construct and interpret a set of relevant indicators of energy
conservation in the SEMCs.
Construct and interpret a set of energy conservation socio-
economic impact indicators.
Target countries
 Algeria Preparation of a background
 Egypt paper presenting an aggregated
 Jordan
analysis of indicators at the
region level and a comparative
 Lebanon
analysis between the concerned
 Libya countries.
 Morocco
 Palestine
 Syria
Tunisia

11. Overview on indicator approach: Why we need indicators?
Definition and monitoring of the targets set at the
national and international levels of energy efficiency
and CO2 abatement programs.
Evaluation of the energy efficiency programs that
have been implemented.
Planning tool of future actions, including R&D
programs.
Feeding the energy demand forecasting models and
improving the quality of forecasts.
Enable cross-country comparisons and
benchmarking.

12. Overview on indicator approach: Categories of indicators?
Descriptive indicators
 Energy intensity at macro level, by energy
 Energy intensity at sector level
 Specific consumption in branches
 Unit consumption, etc.
Explicative indicators
 Indicators at constant structure
 Indicators with climate corrections
 Indicators at Parity of Power Purchase
 Quantity effects
 Consumption unit effect
 Energy saving
 Energy efficiency index
Socio-impact indicators

13. Steps of the study
Preparation phase
 Choice of indicators in a participating approach
 Preparation of the data needed
 Preparation of the tool for calculating indicators
 Recruiting experts countries
Organization of workshops with national experts :
Workshops of 2 to 3 days.
Data collection and preparation of country reports
Project coordination and assistance to national experts
Organizing a workshop to discuss applications and work of
national experts: workshops of 2 to 3 days
Preparation of final report
Organization of a workshop final refund
Dissemination and exploitation of results

14. Study Organisation
Organization of implementation
 A general coordinator of the mission
 9 national experts
 Transfer the experience of Tunisia to other countries (methodology,
tools, expertise)
 Integration of data and results to Plan Bleu database, opened to the all
users
Planning of the study
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12 M13 M14 M15
Etape 1: Préparation
Etape 2: Atelier de travail avec les experts
Etape 3: Collectes des données et élaboration des rapports pays
Etape 4: Coordination et assistance aux consultants
Etape 5: Atelier de restitution des travaux des consultants
Etape 6 : Elaboration du rapport
Etape 7 : Atelier final
Duration of the study : 15 months

15. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION
For more information
www.planbleu.org
Contact :
ehelandaloussi @planbleu.org
15

16. Electricity in the Med
Electricity in the
Mediterranean

17. MEDITERRANEAN : Evolution of the parameters (1970=index 100)
Strong growth on the energy & electricity consumptions in the Med.

18. Energy & Electricity Potential Savings in the Med, by 2025-2030
Potential of Energy &
Electricity savings in the
Mediterranean,
if efforts in the EE policies.

19. Energy situation in the SEMCs
Increased energy
dependency
79%
70%

20. Energy economies potential, 1980-2005 (nanojoules)
Potential energy
savings in the
SEMCs, if efforts
in EE policies.

21. CO2 Emissions in the SEMCs
CO2 Emissions
in the SEMCs.