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Solar and wind power forecasting
1. Jan Schmelter
Euro Arab Training Course:
SMART GRID AND INTEGRATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
Granada, Spain
28th
April 2016
>>>Solar and wind power forecasting
2. >>>
Company profile
Integration of renewables into grids and markets
Service provider for energy meteorology since 2004
Areas of business
– Wind and solar power predictions worldwide
– Predictions for grid operators and traders
– Software for Virtual power plants and demand side management
– Development
• Industry projects
• National and international research projects
70 people
3. >>>
Choice of international customers
PJM
Interconnection
BPA
Bonneville Power Administration
Tennessee Valley
Authority
7. >>>
Central Questions
Why are power predictions necessary?
Who needs wind and solar power predictions?
What are the recommendations to implement forecasts?
8. >>>
Central Questions
Why are power predictions necessary?
Who needs wind and solar power predictions?
What are the recommendations to implement forecasts?
How does a power prediction work?
9. >>>
Central Questions
Why are power predictions necessary?
Who needs wind and solar power predictions?
What are the recommendations to implement forecasts?
How does a power prediction work?
Why is a power prediction difficult?
10. >>>
Central Questions
Why are power predictions necessary?
Who needs wind and solar power predictions?
What are the recommendations to implement forecasts?
How does a power prediction work?
Why is a power prediction difficult?
11. >>>load[%max.load]
time [d]
0
0
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Grid load without wind power
Why are power predictions necessary?
wind and solar power depends on meteorological conditions
12. >>>load[%max.load]
time [d]
0
0
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Residual load due to renewable production
Grid load without wind power
Why are power predictions necessary?
wind and solar power depends on meteorological conditions
13. >>>load[%max.load]
time [d]
0
0
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Residual load due to renewable production
Grid load without wind power
Why are power predictions necessary?
wind and solar power depends on meteorological conditions
contribution of wind and solar must be known in advance
power forecasts provide schedule of expected generation
14. >>>
How does a wind power prediction look like?
Schedule containing 24 or 96 values per day
Single plants or aggregate
Optional confidence bands
15. >>>
How does a solar power prediction look like?
Schedule containing 24 or 96 values per day
Single plants or aggregate
Optional confidence bands
16. >>>
Central Questions
Why are power predictions necessary?
Who needs wind and solar power
predictions?
What are the recommendations to implement forecasts?
How does a power prediction work?
Why is a power prediction difficult?
17. >>>
Who needs wind and solar power forecasts?
grid operators (TSOs, DSOs)
– balancing
– dispatch / re-dispatch
– load flow calculations
– congestion management
18. >>>
Who needs wind and solar power forecasts?
grid operators (TSOs, DSOs)
– balancing
– dispatch / re-dispatch
– load flow calculations
– congestion management
energy traders
– trading wind and solar power on energy markets
– influence of renewable energy on spot market price
19. >>>
Who needs wind and solar power forecasts?
grid operators (TSOs, DSOs)
– balancing
– dispatch / re-dispatch
– load flow calculations
– congestion management
energy traders
– trading wind and solar power on energy markets
– influence of renewable energy on spot market price
wind farm / solar plant operators
– schedule maintenance
– send schedule to grid operator
20. >>>
Who needs wind and solar power forecasts?
Time scale of forecast Stakeholder Area of application
Shortest-term
(0 – 6 h)
Traders Trading on intraday energy market
Control of curtailment due to negative market
price
Grid operators
load dispatch centers
system operators
Balancing
Unit re-dispatch
Curtailment of power plants
Speculators Influence of renewable production on market price
Short-term
(6 – 48 h)
Traders Trading on day-ahead energy market
Participation in regulation market
Influence of reneables on market price
Grid operators
load dispatch centers
system operators
Unit dispatch
Load flow calculations
DA congestion forecast
Plant operators Day-ahead planning of maintenance
Medium-term
(2 – 10 days)
Traders Trading on long-term markets
Grid operators
load dispatch centers
system operators
2DA congestions forecast
Week-ahead planning
Plant operators Medium-term planning of maintenance
21. >>>
Central Questions
Why are power predictions necessary?
Who needs wind and solar power predictions?
What are the recommendations to implement
forecasts?
How does a power prediction work?
Why is a power prediction difficult?
24. >>>
National register of wind and solar plants
Register should contain following standing data of new installations for
every unit:
unique identifier for each unit
technology of the generator (i.e. wind, pv, csp)
installed capacity of each generator
geographical location of each generator according to the World
Geodetic System 1984 as a degree in decimals
associated grid connection point
for wind turbines: hub height and rotor diameter
for PV modules: inclination angle and orientation
date of initial operation and date of decommissioning
if the generated power is used on location or only fed in to the grid
26. >>>
The plant register for renewables in Germany
Forecaster
plant register
Federal Network
Agency
27. >>>
The plant register for renewables in Germany
Forecaster
plant register
Federal Network
Agency
TSO
28. >>>
The plant register for renewables in Germany
Forecaster
plant register
Federal Network
Agency
TSO No 4
TSO No 3
TSO No 2
TSO No 1
29. >>>
The plant register for renewables in Germany
Forecaster
plant register
Federal Network
Agency
TSO No 4
TSO No 3
TSO No 2
TSO No 1
~ 20
direct
marketers
30. >>>
The plant register for renewables in Germany
Forecaster
plant register
Federal Network
Agency
TSO No 4
TSO No 3
TSO No 2
TSO No 1
~ 20
direct
marketers
31. >>>
The plant register for renewables in Germany
Forecaster
plant register
Federal Network
Agency
TSO No 4
TSO No 3
TSO No 2
TSO No 1
~ 20
direct
marketers DSOs
~ 880
32. >>>
The plant register for renewables in Germany
Forecaster
plant register
Federal Network
Agency
TSO No 4
TSO No 3
TSO No 2
TSO No 1
~ 20
direct
marketers DSOs
~ 880
33. >>>
~ 20
direct
marketers
The plant register for renewables in Germany
Forecaster
plant register
Federal Network
Agency
TSO No 4
TSO No 3
TSO No 2
TSO No 1
DSOs
~ 880
34. >>>
The plant register for renewables in Germany
Forecaster
plant register
Federal Network
Agency
TSO No 4
TSO No 3
TSO No 2
TSO No 1
DSOs
Wind farm
owners
~ 20.000
~ 880
~ 20
direct
marketers
35. >>>
The plant register for renewables in Germany
Forecaster
plant register
Federal Network
Agency
TSO No 4
TSO No 3
TSO No 2
TSO No 1
DSOs
Wind farm
owners
~ 20.000
~ 880
~ 20
direct
marketers
Solar plant
owners
~ 3.000.000
36. >>>
The plant register for renewables in Germany
Forecaster
plant register
Federal Network
Agency
TSO No 4
TSO No 3
TSO No 2
TSO No 1
DSOs
Wind farm
owners
~ 20.000
~ 880
~ 20
direct
marketers
Solar plant
owners
~ 3.000.000
some other
companies
37. >>>
The plant register for renewables in Germany
Forecaster
plant register
Federal Network
Agency
TSO No 4
TSO No 3
TSO No 2
TSO No 1
DSOs
Wind farm
owners
~ 20.000
~ 880
~ 20
direct
marketers
Solar plant
owners
~ 3.000.000
some other
companies
38. >>>
The plant register for renewables in Germany
Forecaster
plant register
Federal Network
Agency
TSO No 4
TSO No 3
TSO No 2
TSO No 1
DSOs
Wind farm
owners
~ 20.000
~ 880
~ 20
direct
marketers
Solar plant
owners
~ 3.000.000
some other
companies
TRANSPARENCY?
39. >>>
The plant register for renewables: the transparent way
Forecaster
plant register
Federal Network
Agency / TSO
Wind farm
owners
Solar plant
owners
42. >>>
Grid code requirements
The grid code should contain the following data for every unit:
power output (real power output)
available active power (power output due to meteorological conditions)
Information on scheduled availability of wind farms and solar plants in
terms of effective installed power to cover e.g. scheduled maintenance,
known outages of machines
Information on current availability of units
Information on scheduled curtailment, i.e. limits to power output
Information on currently activated curtailment by grid operators or
dispatch centres
Meteorological data that measure the available resource
Wind farms: wind speed and direction close to hub height
Solar plants: solar irradiation (direct and diffuse separately if possible)
44. >>>
Central Questions
Why are power predictions necessary?
Who needs wind and solar power predictions?
What are the recommendations to implement forecasts?
How does a power prediction work?
Why is a power prediction difficult?
45. >>>
Goal is power conversion:
transfer meteorological variables into power output of wind or solar plants
Basic approaches to wind and solar power prediction
46. >>>
Goal is power conversion:
transfer meteorological variables into power output of wind or solar plants
state of the art: use of numerical weather prediction models (NWP)
Basic approaches to wind and solar power prediction
47. >>>
State of the art: prediction systems
physical model
statistical
post processing
different NWPs
standing data
of power plants
final forecast
online data
forecaster external data
56. >>>
… vertical interpolation is also needed
100 m
10 m
wind speed
height
hub height unstable
NWP data
stable
NWP data
wind profile changes with atmospheric conditions
57. >>>
Combination of weather models
Weighting factors according to capabilities
in different weather situations
Weather classification
Weather data
wind power
prediction
Single wind power
predictions
60. >>>
Forecast improvement due to intelligent model combination !
combination
measurement
solar power prediction
Benefit of combination
61. >>>
Central Questions
Why are power predictions necessary?
Who needs wind and solar power predictions?
What are the recommendations to implement forecasts?
How does a power prediction work?
Why is a power prediction difficult?
62. >>>
Different types of forecast errors
Large amount of different types of errors:
… errors in meteorological forecasts
63. >>>
Different types of forecast errors
Large amount of different types of errors:
… errors in meteorological forecasts
… errors in power transformation
64. >>>
Different types of forecast errors
Large amount of different types of errors:
… errors in meteorological forecasts
… errors in power transformation
… unknown status of power plants
66. >>>„Artificial“ forecasting errors due to unknown plant status
Wind farm availability below 100 %
Wind farm shut down due to grid congestion
67. >>>
To be considered: curtailment and scheduled outages
Prediction using curtailment information
(wind farm limited to 80 MW)
Prediction assuming full availability of
wind farm (200 MW installed capacity)
Time schedules for
planned outages or
curtailments can be
transmitted to Previento
to be considered in the
forecasts.
68. >>>
Different types of forecast errors
Large amount of different types of errors:
… errors in meteorological forecasts
… errors in power transformation
… unknown status of power plants
… difficult meteorological situations
78. >>>
… some more literature
Variable Renewable Energy
Forecasting - Integration into
Electricity Grids and Makets - A
Best Practice Guide
Release: Original publication July
2015
79. >>>
Thanks for your attention!
www.energymeteo.com
Jan Schmelter
jan.schmelter@energymeteo.com