This study analyzes the adequacy of official abortion statistics in Russia using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). The study finds that estimates of abortion rates from four different data sources, including the RLMS, are very close to official abortion statistics reported by the Russian government. This suggests that official Russian abortion statistics are complete and do not underreport abortions as often believed. More detailed abortion data from the government could help planners improve reproductive health and avoid unwanted pregnancies.

1. New estimates of adequacy of
official abortion statistics in Russia
Boris Denisov (Moscow State University, Russia)
Victoria Sakevich (National Research University “Higher School of Economics”, Russia)
This study comprises research findings from the project
“Reproductive health characteristics based on the RLMS-HSE”,
research grant No 12-01-0076, carried out within The National
Research University “Higher School of Economics” Academic Fund
Program in 2013/2014
The First International
«Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of HSE»
User Conference
Moscow, Russia, 17-18 May 2013

2. Content
1. Official abortion statistics in Russia
2. Suspicious adequacy of these statistics
3. Evidence from sample surveys
4. What’s new ?
5. Why it is important, and what for?

3. Abortions in the old Soviet Union and
contemporary Russian Federation
• Legal 1920-1936, and 1955-now (total=74
years)
• Case reporting system (providers’ reports)
• Ministry of Health – major provider
• Other providers, including private
• Statistical Agency, currently Rosstat

4. Abortions’ data before 1936
In 1927 TsSU published two
detailed analytical reports:
1. Abortions in 1925, and
2. Abortions in 1926
The next publication appeared
in 1988
From 1920 to 1936 abortion
indicators skyrocketed
Modern contraception had
not appeared yet.
Data source for the pic = В. В. Паевский, 1929; ЦГА
СПб, Ф.4965, оп.3, д.2, л.2. 10.

5. Recent abortions’ dynamics in Russia

6. Compare: Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine

7. Suspicious completeness
• Almost all Soviet statistics are suspicious, the
tradition of disbelief is longer than 94 years
• The concept of “abortion culture” made the
incompleteness of count a common place
• The idea of undercount likely stemmed from the
first sample surveys, which showed TAR at a level
15-16
• Major supporting source – medical community
and anecdotic evidence (experts’ stories)

8. Yet another data source
There are at least two independent estimates of
abortions’ statistics completeness:
• Based on RLMS data (started since 1992)
(Kozyreva, Entwisle, 1997)
• Three regional surveys (1988/1989, 1996, and
2000)
(Philipov et al, 2004)

9. Entwisle B, Kozyreva P.
New estimates of induced abortion in Russia
Stud Fam Plann. 1997 Mar; 28(1): 14-23
General abortion rate, 1994 = 56 (±12) per 1000
women 15-44
!!! = an estimate varies from that advanced by
official sources and other studies (PubMed
abstract)
✔ New estimate is significantly lower than the
official (in text)

10. Philipov, D., Andreev, E., Kharkova, T. and Shkolnikov, V.
Recent Trends in Induced Abortions in Russia and Under-
Reporting in Surveys.
European Journal of Population, 2004, 20(2): 95-117.
Authors:
… survey estimates of the crude, total, and age-specific abortion rates
emerge to be very close to respective figures from provider statistics for
about two years preceding each survey…provider statistics on abortion in
Russia are a true reflection of the situation they monitor, that the observed
declining trend in abortion is a real one
However AGI:
Abortion statistics for …Russia… were deemed complete in 2003 but
incomplete in 2008. The proportion of abortions in Russia that are privately
performed and unreported is increasing, according to experts and published
research. (G Sedgh, S Singh, SK Henshaw, and A Bankole, Legal Abortion
Worldwide in 2008: Levels and Recent Trends, Perspectives on Sexual and
Reproductive Health, 2011, 43(3): 188–198)

11. Indirect evidence
Data from two nationally representative population
surveys, conducted in Ukraine in 1999 and 2007,
showed quite good matching with officially
reported abortion figures.
Levchuk NB, Perelli-Harris B (2009)
Declining fertility in Ukraine:
What is the role of abortion and contraception?
MPIDR Working Paper, WP 2009-045, December 2009.

12. The debate is far from being complete
• The 19th round of RLMS provided new
opportunities
• RLMS became RLMS-HSE, thus more
researchers obtained access to these data
• Probably an access to the data from previous
rounds (?) will be granted

13. The 19th RLMS-HSE round contains
module on reproductive health
There are two related questions:
• Number of abortions in previous 12 moths,
and
• Life long number of abortions
• + Questionnaire discriminates various types of
pregnancy termination: live/still births,
miscarriages

14. Have you ever made an abortion ?
• Of all women 58% had at least 1 abortion
• For women born before 1976 = 69%
• after 1976 = 38%
Starting from cohort of women born in 1976 and
younger proportion of those who had never
made an abortion is greater than of those who
had that experience

15. Number of abortions in last 12 months
• 2.5 per cent of women of reproductive age (15-
49) answered that they had an induced abortion
in the last 12 months.
• About 6 per cent made more than one abortion
during this year
• Thus the abortion rate in these 12 months was
26.9 per 1,000 women of reproductive age.
• In 2010 Rosstat reported induced 27.1 abortions
per 1,000 women of reproductive age.
The survey data and government statistics are very
close, almost identical.

16. More from previous 12 months
Total abortion rate:
• RLMS = 0.90
• Rosstat, 2010 = 0.92 (without spontaneous)
Percentage of abortions performed outside MoH
facilities
• RLMS = 12.7%
• Rosstat, 2010 =10.9%
(without spontaneous and so called unspecified)

17. Thus four estimates based on various
data confirm official reports
Authors (data source), year Estimate Official figure
Kozyreva, Entwisle (RLMS), 1994 44-68 73
Philipov, et al (three surveys), 1987, 1995, 1999 124, 76, 61 125, 77, 66
Denisov, Sakevich (RLMS-HSE), 2010 27 27

18. The importance of being sober
• 2011 experience
• Current Mizulina initiatives (draft state family
policy)
All based on faked data
Finally, in addition to various advocacy we must
know the real thing.

19. Conclusion
Official Russian abortions' statistics are complete,
but are not adequate for
(1) planning interventions in order to improve reproductive
health, and
(2) To avoid unwanted pregnancies
We expect more from Rosstat:
• Urban/rural breakdown + other social and economic
indicators
• More detailed age distributions
• Distributions by order (birth, abortion, pregnancy)
Publishing more detailed (beyond count) statistics Rosstat
will undermine the myth of incompleteness.

20. Thank you for your attention
Boris Denisov
Moscow State University, Russia
denisov@demography.ru
Victoria Sakevich
National Research University “Higher
School of Economics”, Russia
vsakevich@hse.ru