6. October 2010
The Hypothesis
• Better educated metropolitan areas have
higher incomes
• Better skilled workers are more innovative
and productive
7. October 2010
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
Raleigh-Cary, NC
Austin-Round Rock, TX
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
Denver-Aurora, CO
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-
Baltimore-Tow son, MD
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI
Columbus, OH
Kansas City, MO-KS
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC
Richmond, VA
Rochester, NY
Salt Lake City, UT
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Milw aukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
St. Louis, MO-IL
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytow n, TX
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
Pittsburgh, PA
Cincinnati-Middletow n, OH-KY-IN
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-New port New s, VA-NC
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
Oklahoma City, OK
Birmingham-Hoover, AL
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA
Jacksonville, FL
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearw ater, FL
San Antonio, TX
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Four Year College
Attainment Rate
8. October 2010
The Evidence
Education Explains Most Differences in Metro Income
Annual Per Capita Income, 2005
NO
RAL
ROC
SLC
BIR
BUF
OKC
HAR
RIC
LOU
MEM
JAC NAS
AUS
MIL
CHA
PRI
VB
IND
COL
LV
SAT
KC
ORL
SACCLE
CIN POR
PIT
DEN
BAL
TPA
STL
SAN
MIN
SEA
PHO
DET
ATL
MIA
HOU PHI
DAL
CHI
LA
NY
y = 763.27x + 16466
R
2
= 0.5846
$30,000
$32,000
$34,000
$36,000
$38,000
$40,000
$42,000
$44,000
$46,000
$48,000
$50,000
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Percent of Population with a 4-Year College Degree, 2006
Sources: BEA (Income), Census (Education)
9. October 2010
Estimating the Gain
• Each 1% improvement in college
attainment is associated with a $763
increase in per capita income for the entire
metropolitan area
• These education gains are the product of
a shift in the entire skill distribution, not
just moving 1% past the 4 year mark
11. October 2010
2. Metrics for improving
attainment
• High School Completion
• College Continuation
• Adult Post-Secondary Education
• College Completion
12. October 2010
Different Sources of Data
– Institutional
• Enrollment records
• Generated by schools
• Aggregated by others (NCES, NCHEMS, NSC)
– Population
• Survey data
• Gathered by Census Bureau
• Covers entire population; sampling variability
13. October 2010
Institutional Measures
• Administrative records from educational
institutions
– Diplomas, Enrollment
• Reported to and aggregated by national
organizations
– NCES, National Student Clearinghouse
• High coverage/ Can drill down; but can be
vague and anomalous
14. October 2010
High School Completion
• Cumulative Promotion Index
• Product of high school grade level success
rates:
– [(9th to 10th %) x (10th to 11th %) x (11th to 12th)
% x (12th to Diploma %)]
• If 90% are promoted each year
– CPI= .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 = 65.1%
• Computed from NCES data
15. October 2010
High School Graduation Rates
(CPI Method)
WAS
CIN
PDX
DET
SAC
IND
NY
BAL PHI
MEM RIC KC
VBN RAL ROC
HOU RIV DEN NAS
ATL OKC LOU MIL
SLC AUS STL SDO
JFL BIR CLE SEA
TSP LA SJO DFW CHI MSP
PHX LV MIA CHA ORL COL SAT SFO BUF
35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85%
Source: Computed from NCES/CCD
16. October 2010
College Completion
• Institutions report 6-year graduation rate
for four-year institutions
• Data reported by institutions, tabulated by
IPEDS
• We sum by metro area, weighting
institutional rates by enrollment for four-
year institutions.
17. October 2010
College Graduation Rates
SDO
COL
LA
SEA
RIC SAC
STL ORL
ATL CLE ROC
JFL BUF AUS
TSP NAS BOS
MIA VBN BAL
PDX RIV PHI
OKC CIN HAR
DFW NY RAL
DET NOLA CHA PIT
SLC IND BIR PRO
MEM LOU MIL SFO
LV KC CHI SAT
PHX HOU DEN WAS MSP SJO
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Source: Computed from IPEDS
18. October 2010
Population Measures
• Data from American Community Survey
• Two Questions:
– Attendance
– Attainment
• Asked of 1% Sample Annually
• Use 3-year 2006-2008 pooled sample
22. October 2010
High School Completion (on time)
• What percent of 19 year olds report having
received a high school diploma or GED?
• Census question makes no distinction
between diploma and GED
24. October 2010
College Enrollment
SAT
PDX
CHA
HOU
MEM LA SJO
TSP CIN ROC
SEA CLE NAS BUF
SLC SDO WAS PIT
IND BAL MIL PRO
DFW RIC STL HAR
LOU SAC OKC COL
KC BIR MIA AUS
PHX ORL DET PHI
JFL VBN NOLA CHI SFO RAL
LV DEN RIV ATL MSP NY BOS
25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
Percent of 18-24 Year Olds Attending Post-Secondary Education
25. October 2010
Adult Post-Secondary Education
• What proportion of 25-44 year olds, who
have completed high school, but do not
have a bachelor’s degree, attended
college classes?
26. October 2010
Adult Enrollment and Age
Enrollment Declines with Age
Percent of Persons with Less than a BA Degree Attending College Classes, by Age
R2
= 0.983
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Age
AttendingCollegeClasses
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
27. October 2010
Adult Post-Secondary Attendance
RIC
KC LA
PRO TSP
PHX RAL
PIT RIV
MIL LOU ORL
ROC BOS CHI SEA PDX
NY PHI HOU COL MIA SAT SJO
DFW NAS ATL AUS HAR CLE WAS OKC
NOLA CHA CIN MSP STL JFL BAL SLC VBN
LV BIR BUF DEN IND MEM DET SFO SDO SAC
5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5%
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
25 to 44 Year Olds with No Four-Year Degree Attending Post-Secondary Classes
29. October 2010
College Completion
CHA
BOS
ROC
IND
OKC
BAL
DEN
ATL
PRO
SEA
CLE CHI
SDO CIN MIL
DFW PDX HAR BUF
DET RIC BIR MSP
SAC TSP ORL NAS NY
LV PHX LA STL COL
SAT NOLA MEM SJO PHI
SLC HOU MIA SFO PIT
RIV VBN JFL LOU AUS KC WAS RAL
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
24 Year Olds with a Four-year degree or higher
30. October 2010
Making Use of the Data
• Where am is my region strong and weak?
• Who is doing better that I might learn
from?
• Are there special conditions that affect
local performance?
31. October 2010
Years of Post-Secondary Education
• Four-year degree attainment rate is too
simple to capture the “size” of the Talent
Dividend challenge
• How much additional education is needed
to raise the attanment rate?
33. October 2010
YPSE Weights
Value Years of PSE
High school graduate, or Less 0
Some college, less than 1 year .5
One or more years of college but no degree 1.2
Associate degree 2
Bachelor's degree 4
Master's degree 5
Professional degree 5
Doctorate degree 7
34. October 2010
YPSE v. 4 year attainment
Years of Post-Secondary Education Correlates with BA Attainment
y = 0.2097x - 0.0634
R2
= 0.9763
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
YPSE: Years of Post-Secondary Education
BAAttainmentRate
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
35. October 2010
How much effort?
• Years of Post-Secondary Education
• Portland: About 100,000 person years of
additional post-secondary education to
raise the four-year college attainment rate
by 1 percentage point.
36. October 2010
Migration
• About 2.7 million working age persons with
four-year degrees move to a different
metropolitan area each year
37. October 2010
Talent Migration *
PHI
CHI JFL
MIL BAL LOU SLC
PRO CIN VBN DFW TSP
NY BUF SFO PIT PDX
HAR IND WAS ATL PHX
ROC BOS NAS SDO SAT RAL
MEM ORL COL SJO HOU CHA LV
NOLA DET LA MSP KC RIC SAC RIV SEA AUS
-1% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.5%
* Not adjusted for international out-migration
Net In-Migration of Working Aged Adults with a Four-year Degree
Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
