2. The Pensions Risk Management Framework (PRMF)
Objective Performance Indicators Actual Performance
Funding Strategy
To reach full funding by
2020
Funding ratio on IAS19 basis 85%
Funding ratio on Gilts Flat basis 70%
Expected returns in
excess of required
returns
Expected returns from current
investment strategy
Gilts + 300bps
Risk target
1-year 1-in-20 minimum
worst-case loss should
not exceed 15% of
liabilities
1-year 95% Value-at-Risk >[15]%
Aspirational target
To be fully inflation and
interest rate hedged
Nominal hedge ratio <[80]%
Inflation hedge ratio <[80]%
Scheme constraint
Liquidity & collateral
requirements
Liquidity: cash held sufficient to pay two
months of benefits
£50m
Collateral: available eligible collateral
sufficient to meet potential collateral
calls on derivative positions
>£500m
Source: Redington.
4. Credit Spread and Gilt Yield Evolution
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
bps
20-Year Gilt Real Yield Sterling IG 15+ Corporate Spread IG Spread + Real Yield
Source: Redington; Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
5. The Fixed Income Universe
Numbers refer to the approximate size of
each investment universe ($trn).
Source: Redington; Barclays (IG, ABS); iBoxx (Subfins); Babson Capital (High Yield, Lev Loans, CLOs); Bluebay Asset Management, Stone Harbor Investment Partners (EM).
6. • Credit Spread VaR is calculated using monthly data under a lognormal assumption with 95%
confidence.
• Leveraged Loans Index is the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loans Index.
• High Yield Index is the Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index.
• Investment Grade index is the Merrill Lynch Sterling Corp & Collateralised All Stocks ex Sub
Index.
• Emerging Market Debt index is the Merrill Lynch Emerging Markets Plus Index.
• Sub-Financials index is a custom Merrill Lynch Index including Tier 1, Upper Tier 2 and Lower
Tier 2 instruments.
• ABS index is Merrill Lynch Sterling ABS/MBS Index.
The Case for Unconstrained Fixed Income: 31/12/2006
7. The Case for Unconstrained Fixed Income: 2006-2012
8. The Case for Unconstrained Fixed Income: 31/07/2012
9. Implementation
Source: Redington; Barclays (IG, ABS); iBoxx (Subfins); Babson Capital (High Yield, Lev Loans, CLOs); Bluebay Asset Management, Stone Harbor Investment Partners (EM).
10. Interest Rate Cycle
Credit Spread Cycle
• Diversify from other risk exposures
• Absolute return strategies may be uncorrelated with equity or bond portfolios
• Low risk strategy but higher returns than a cash fund
• Advantage of the wide universe of funds is that a fund can be chosen to meet the specific risk
appetite of any client
• Access manager alpha
• But in a more accountable, affordable and transparent structure than investing in a hedge fund
Absolute Return Fixed Income
Source: Redington
11. Conclusion: Expanding the Toolkit
Source: Redington; Barclays (IG, ABS); iBoxx (Subfins); Babson Capital (High Yield, Lev Loans, CLOs); Bluebay Asset Management, Stone Harbor Investment Partners (EM).