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IFPRI



              Agricultural Modernization Experiences in Uganda




              Expert Group Meeting on Agriculture and Rural Transformation


                                         Godfrey Bahiigwa

                                        December 4, 2012
                                       Addis Ababa, Ethiopia


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Outline of Presentation

     Policy frameworks for agricultural
      transformation

     Is transformation happening in
      Uganda’s agriculture?

     Some lessons learnt over the years
Uganda’s Agricultural Policy Frameworks (1)

       Plan for Modernization of Agriculture (PMA):
        2001-2008
        » Poverty focused, small scale farmer driven
        » Holistic approach to agricultural development
        » Government role limited to public goods
       Rural Development Strategy (RDS): 2005-
        2007
        » Advocated for proactive government, but short-
          lived
Uganda’s Agricultural Policy Frameworks (2)

       Prosperity for All (PFA): 2006 to date
        »   Improved version of RDS
        »   Elements of PMA in it
        »   Used for political mobilization
        »   Quietly fizzling away
       Agricultural Sector Development Strategy
        and Investment Plan (DSIP): 2010-2015
        »   Captures key elements of PMA, RDS, PFA
        »   Focused more on role of ministry of agriculture
        »   Supports all farmer categories
        »   Not as popularized at the PMA
        »   Commodity approach adopted for
            implementation
Indicators of Agricultural Transformation

     Increasing productivity, sustained over
      several decades
     Increasing incomes, sustained over
      several decades

     Declining share of agriculture in GDP


     Declining labor employed in agriculture
Cereal yields have hardly changes in 30 years


       2500


       2000


       1500


       1000


       500


         0



                  Uganda Cereal Yield   Kenya Cereal Yield
Per capita incomes started rising in last 10 years


       600

       500

       400

       300

       200

       100

         0



                              Per Capita GDP ($)
Agriculture Share in GDP has declined, but not employment


      90
      80
      70
      60
      50
      40
      30
      20
      10
       0




                   Ag. Value Added GDP (%)   Non Ag GDP (%)
73
72                                                       72
71
70
69                                                  69
68
67
66                                             66                66
65
64
63




     1980   1981   1982   1983   1984   1985        1986      1987
     1988   1989   1990   1991   1992   1993        1994      1995
     1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001        2002      2003
     2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009        2010      2011
Population is predominantly rural and changing slowly

     94

     92

     90

     88

     86

     84

     82

     80




                       Rural Population (%)
 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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Agricultural transformation in uganda december 3 4 2012

  • 1. IFPRI Agricultural Modernization Experiences in Uganda Expert Group Meeting on Agriculture and Rural Transformation Godfrey Bahiigwa December 4, 2012 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 2. Outline of Presentation  Policy frameworks for agricultural transformation  Is transformation happening in Uganda’s agriculture?  Some lessons learnt over the years
  • 3. Uganda’s Agricultural Policy Frameworks (1)  Plan for Modernization of Agriculture (PMA): 2001-2008 » Poverty focused, small scale farmer driven » Holistic approach to agricultural development » Government role limited to public goods  Rural Development Strategy (RDS): 2005- 2007 » Advocated for proactive government, but short- lived
  • 4. Uganda’s Agricultural Policy Frameworks (2)  Prosperity for All (PFA): 2006 to date » Improved version of RDS » Elements of PMA in it » Used for political mobilization » Quietly fizzling away  Agricultural Sector Development Strategy and Investment Plan (DSIP): 2010-2015 » Captures key elements of PMA, RDS, PFA » Focused more on role of ministry of agriculture » Supports all farmer categories » Not as popularized at the PMA » Commodity approach adopted for implementation
  • 5. Indicators of Agricultural Transformation  Increasing productivity, sustained over several decades  Increasing incomes, sustained over several decades  Declining share of agriculture in GDP  Declining labor employed in agriculture
  • 6. Cereal yields have hardly changes in 30 years 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Uganda Cereal Yield Kenya Cereal Yield
  • 7. Per capita incomes started rising in last 10 years 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Per Capita GDP ($)
  • 8. Agriculture Share in GDP has declined, but not employment 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ag. Value Added GDP (%) Non Ag GDP (%)
  • 9. 73 72 72 71 70 69 69 68 67 66 66 66 65 64 63 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • 10. Population is predominantly rural and changing slowly 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 Rural Population (%)
  • 11.  THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION