Strategic Analysis to inform Agricultural Policy ReSAKSS ECA stakeholder workshop, 11th June, 2012

1. Trends in Key Agricultural and Rural
Development Indicators in COMESA Region
Paul Guthiga & Stella Massawe
ReSAKSS ECA
1

2. Outline
• About the report
• CAADP: Principles, Implementation status and M&E
• Economic performance
• Agricultural financing and expenditures
• Performance of agriculture sector
• Agricultural productivity trends
• Poverty and hunger
• Concluding remarks
2

3. About the report
• Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) for
agriculture and rural development indicators is a
flagship M&E report prepared by ReSAKSS.
• For what purpose?
– Document & monitor progress towards achievement of the
CAADP targets and other developmental goals.
– Facilitate peer learning, review and mutual accountability
among countries.
• For the year 2011; ATOR focused on “Trends in
Agricultural Productivity”
3

4. CAADP: Principles, Implementation Status & M&E
4

5. CAADP Principles
• Agriculture-led growth to achieve MDG1.
• Pursuit of 6% average annual sector growth
• Allocation of 10%of national budgets to agriculture sector
• Exploitation of regional complementarities and cooperation
to boost growth
• Policy efficiency, dialogue, review and accountability
(evidence-based policymaking)
• Partnerships and alliances to include all stakeholders
5

6. Stages of CAADP Implementation at Country Level
Source: ReSAKSS, 2010
6

7. CAADP Implementation
• At the country level, the implementation process aims at:-
– Aligning national agricultural sector policies, strategies and investment
programs with CAADP principles, pillars and targets.
• At the regional level, RECs plays a coordination role
• Progress of implementation is varied among countries;
– Some have made good progress while others lag behind
– Countries in the COMESA region that had developed detailed investment
plans include Rwanda, Uganda, Ethiopia, Malawi, Kenya, and Burundi
7

8. Status of Implementation at Country Level
Country Dates when Investment Plan IP review date Business meeting held
Name compact signed (IP) ready
Rwanda 30-31 Mar, 2007 Yes 4-8 Dec, 2009 8-9 Dec, 2009
Ethiopia 27-28 Sept, 2009 Yes 10-16 Sept, 2010 6-7 Dec, 2010
Burundi 24-25 Aug, 2009 Yes 22-31 Aug, 2011 14-15 Mar, 2012
Uganda 30-31 Mar, 2010 Yes 2-10 Sept, 2010 16-17 Sept, 2010
Malawi 19 Apr, 2010 Yes 10-16 Sept, 2010 28-29 Sept, 2010
Tanzania 6-8 Jul, 2010 Yes 20-31 May, 2011 9-10 Nov, 2011
Kenya 23-24 Jul, 2010 Yes 6-14 Sept, 2010 27 Sept, 2010
Swaziland 3-4 Mar, 2010 In process Not yet Not yet
Zambia 18 Jan, 2011 In process Not yet Not yet
DRC 18 Mar, 2011 In process Not yet Not yet
Djibouti 19 Apr, 2012 Not yet Not yet Not yet
Source: CAADP Website (http://www.nepad-caadp.net)
8

9. Implementing M&E
• Establishment and operation of M&E systems is critical in the
implementation of CAADP compacts and Investment plans.
• Why M&E?
– To quantify progress in performance of the agricultural sector.
– To monitor delivery on commitments.
– Assess effectiveness of the various types of interventions.
– Assess consistency with initial targets.
• M&E systems established at various levels :
– National level; embedded in national M&E systems;
– Regional and continental levels; CAADP M&E Framework
– Mutual Accountability Framework (MAF) at the national and
international
9

10. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
10

11. Real GDP Growth in the COMESA Countries
2003-2007 2008 2009 2010
Burundi 3.6 4.5 3.5 3.9
Comoros 2.1 1.0 1.8 2.1
DRC 6.4 6.2 2.8 7.2 In general economic
Eritrea 1.8 –9.8 3.9 2.2 growth is impressive;
Ethiopia 11.9 11.2 10.0 8.0
Kenya 5.3 1.6 2.6 5.0 Differences between
Madagascar 6.2 7.1 –3.7 –2.0 countries;
Malawi 5.4 8.6 7.6 6.6
Mauritius 4.3 5.5 3.0 4.0 High food and fuel
prices and inflation
Rwanda 6.7 11.2 4.1 6.5
still pose threat to
Sudan 8.0 6.8 6.0 5.1
future growth
Seychelles 7.6 –1.3 0.7 6.2
Swaziland 2.9 3.1 1.2 2.0
Tanzania 7.2 7.3 6.7 6.5
Uganda 7.8 8.7 7.2 5.2
Zambia 5.6 5.7 6.4 7.6
Zimbabwe –17.7 6.0 9.0
SSA 6.4 5.6 2.8 5.0 11
Source: ahttp://data.worldbank.org/indicator bIMF, 2008; IMF, 2009a; IMF,2009b, IMF,2010

12. Contribution of Agriculture to Total GDP in
COMESA countries
Less 20-29% 30% and above
than 20%
Libya, Seychelles, Zambia, Madagascar, Kenya, Sudan, Comoros, Burundi,
Mauritius, Djibouti, Uganda, Tanzania Malawi, Ethiopia, DRC,
Eritrea, Zimbabwe, and Rwanda
Swaziland and Egypt
Source: compiled by ReSAKSS based on the mostly recently available country sources
12

13. Agricultural Financing and Expenditures
13

14. Budgetary allocation
Maputo Declaration target of 10% budgetary allocation by government is yet to
be met by most countries
Ethiopia
& Malawi
10%
Madagascar, Swaziland,
Sudan, Tanzania,
Uganda, Zambia &
Zimbabwe
5%
Burundi, DRC, Egypt, Kenya,
Mauritius &Rwanda
14

15. Proposed Budget Allocation in NAIPs, 2010-15
 Kenya: heavy on
irrigation and
commercialization
 Malawi: heavy on
farm support and
irrigation
 Rwanda: more
balanced, favoring
NRM
 Uganda: balanced,
favoring extension
and farm support
Source: National Agricultural Investment Plans
15

16. Performance of the Agriculture Sector
16

17. Agriculture Sector Growth-1
• Impressive progress in agricultural GDP growth; average rate
of 4 percent between 2007 and 2009
• But there were differences in performance among countries
in the COMESA region
17

18. AgGDP growth (Annual % change)
-5
0
5
10
15
-10
Burundi
DRC
Comoros
Djibouti
Egypt
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Kenya
Average 1999-2001
Libya
Madagascar
Mauritius
Malawi
Average2002-4
Rwanda
Source: Authors’ computations based on data on ReSAKSS Website Sudan
Swaziland
Agriculture Sector Growth-2
Seychelles
Tanzania
Average 2005-2007
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
18

19. Agriculture Sector Performance (1)
• The countries that met the CAADP target included;
– Rwanda (8.4%), Ethiopia (7.7%), Tanzania (7.3%) and Malawi (6.5%).
• However, high growth rates in agricultural GDP have not
invariably translated to reduction in poverty and hunger.
– In some countries there is marginal or no reduction in poverty despite
high growth in agricultural GDP.
– Need for targeting investments subsectors or in geographical regions with
potential for high impact on poverty
19

20. Agriculture Sector Performance (2)
20

21. Agriculture, value added as share of GDP (Current USD)
Country/ Region Annual Average Level Annual Average
(1990 - 2010) Change
(1990 - 2010)
COMESA 21.2 -2.8
East Africa 33.2 1.3
Burundi 46.45 0.77
Comoros 44.28 -1.41
DRC 47.27 -1.84
Djibouti 3.49 -1.80
Egypt 16.08 -1.87
Contribution of agricultural sector to
Ethiopia 52.13 -0.18 GDP has slightly decreased in nearly
Kenya 28.32 -1.35 all countries
Libya 2.97 -5.45
Madagascar 28.40 -0.31
Malawi 35.64 -4.26
Mauritius 7.85 -2.35
Rwanda 38.51 -2.53
Seychelles 3.25 -3.03
Sudan 37.66 -5.04
Swaziland 10.42 -0.79
Tanzania 37.55 1.72
Uganda 36.17 -1.55
Zambia 20.98 -3.12
Zimbabwe 17.91 -2.67
Source: Authors calculation based on WDI (2010)
Notes: Blank cells indicate missing values. Regional aggregate values are calculated as weighted summations. 21
The weights are computed using country’s GDP as a share of regional GDP.

22. Agricultural Productivity Trends
22

23. Productivity:- definitions
• Agricultural productivity measures can be ; partial or total.
• Total factor productivity (TFP); compares an index of agricultural
inputs to an index of outputs.
• Partial productivity; amount of output per unit of a particular
input (e.g. land, labour etc)
• TFP more appropriate but less often used due to paucity of data
on prices key inputs
23

24. Crop productivity
• Maize is the key staple in most countries in the region.
• Maize yields in the majority of countries in the COMESA
region are very low;
– Mostly less than 2 tones/ha compared to a world average of 5
tones/ha
• Yield decline has occurred in several countries in the region
over the past decade
24

25. Maize Productivity
Figure: Yields of Maize (tonnes/ha), averages for 2000-02 and 2006-08
25

26. Production versus Productivity Growth
2006 - 2010 production growth rates 2006 - 2010 Yield growth rates
Beans Maize Beans Maize
COMESA 2.4 5.0 1.7 1.3
East Africa 2.4 3 0.9 -1.4
ASARECA 2.2 3.4 1.4 -0.7
Burundi -0.8 2.0 5.0 -1.0
Comoros 5.1 0.5
DRC 0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.01
Djibouti 0.8 -2.6 3.7 -12.4
Egypt 0.3 4.2 -2.3 -3.1
Eritrea -4.5 1.3
Production
Ethiopia 16.5 3.4 5.7 -0.1
Kenya -5.2 -2 0.7 -4.7
is growing
Libya 2.2 -1.5 0.1 -1.7 faster than
Madagascar 1.0 0.5 -0.8 -4.0 productivity
Malawi 8.0 8.9 9.8 7.3
Mauritius 17.2 3.8
Rwanda 2.9 51.1 5.5 36.9
Sudan -2.8 -21 -0.4 4.1
Swaziland -1.1 6.1 0.3 4.6
Uganda 2.0 1.9 -0.4 -0.3
Tanzania 3.1 5.6 -0.8 -0.6
Zambia 18.2 5.1
Zimbabwe -5.7 -7.2 -3.9 -3.3 26

27. Coefficient of Yield Variation (2000-2010)
Countries Beans Maize Rice Wheat Cassava Sweet
Potato
COMESA 5.7 8.0 6.1 4.9 3.9 26.7
East Africa 4.9 18.8 10.6 18.1 7.4 32.5
ASARECA 5.6 10.4 12.0 14.2 3.7 27.2
Burundi 8.2 5.0 5.8 7.0 22.6 33.1
Comoros 12.7 8.3 4.5 42.5
DRC 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.7 0.5 28.7
Djibouti 6.3 16.6
Egypt 4.0 5.0 3.1 4.3 35.5
Eritrea 135.9 59.1 57.0
Ethiopia 26.0 18.1 1.9 17.7 167.5
Kenya 15.8 11.6 27.4 22.2 27.6 31.9
Libya 13.9 19.2 8.1
Madagascar 7.2 24.3 18.8 10.1 18.4 27.8
Malawi 20.6 37.9 25.4 44.8 14.8
Mauritius 13.9 13.3 37.6
Rwanda 18.8 51.9 31.5 37.6 27.9 29.1
Seychelles 9.3
Sudan 7.4 40.8 37.6 25.9 4.3 32.7
Swaziland 2.5 23.8 12.5 17.0 540.8
Uganda 15.0 9.9 5.9 2.6 4.4 48.1
Tanzania 15.1 44.5 14.7 36.3 15.7 170.2
Zambia 19.1 19.3 18.2 5.1 33.7
Zimbabwe 29.2 46.1 23.0 26.6 6.9 68.3
Source: Authors Calculation based on FAO data 27

28. Fertilizer Use
• Average fertilizer use COMESA region is only about 30 Kg/ha.
• Lower than 50kg/ha target set during the African Fertilizer
Summit.
• Low use underlay the low productivity.
• Low levels of fertilizer use are attributed to; high costs, poor
transport infrastructure, unavailability in some remote areas
among others
28

29. Fertilizer consumption Kg/ ha arable land
29

30. Productivity in Livestock Sector
• Livestock production is a key activity in the region particularly
in the arid and semi arid zones.
• Most countries recorded productivity gain between 2000 and
2009 but some recorded decline
• At the regional level, some productivity gains have been
recorded in beef productivity
30

31. Beef productivity
Country Beef yields in carcass weight (kg) Change in beef yields (%)
2000 2005 2009 2000-09 2005-09
Burundi 126.4 126.5 126.5 -0.88 -0.01
Comoros 110.0 110.0 110.0 0.02 0.00
DRC 155.9 155.6 159.2 2.11 2.28
Djibouti 110.0 110.0 109.7 -0.28 -0.28
Egypt 172.8 191.7 203.4 16.85 6.10
Eritrea 108.9 108.9 91.7 -15.84 -15.85
Ethiopia 108.3 108.4 108.4 0.79 0.02
Kenya 136.7 149.1 150.0 21.54 0.59
Libya 178.7 197.7 160.4 -8.37 -18.85
Madagascar 127.5 127.5 127.5 0.00 0.00
Malawi 205.0 205.0 205.0 0.47 -0.02
Mauritius 206.7 231.8 235.0 9.27 1.34
Seychelles 239.2 224.8 225.8 -7.52 0.46
Sudan 114.4 122.2 125.1 12.28 2.38
Swaziland 225.4 217.6 261.7 8.73 20.23
Uganda 150.0 156.4 175.7 17.12 12.32
Tanzania 108.0 108.1 108.6 0.24 0.46
Zambia 158.3 160.0 162.0 4.52 1.26
Zimbabwe 223.3 225.0 225.0 4.65 0.00
Rwanda 104.0 104.0 104.0 0.00 0.00
COMESA 129.3 135.1 137.7 8.40 1.94
31
Source: Authors’ computations based on data from FAOSTAT

32. Agricultural trade performance
• Agricultural trade accounts for about a third of the
total intra-COMESA trade
• Regional trade in food staples has implications on
regional food security
• Agricultural trade is constrained by
– Tariff & non-tariff barriers
• Accurate data is key for monitoring progress
especially on informal trade
32

33. Value of agricultural trade in the COMESA region
Year Total COMESA Total food Total Food Agricultural Agricultu
exports imports (USD) agricultural imports as raw materials ral trade
(country raw % of total as % of total (A+B)
imports) (USD) materials COMESA COMESA
imports exports (A) exports (B)
(USD)
2003 1,820,290,339 559,295,121 104,437,668 30.7 5.7 36.4
2004 2,003,943,144 731,650,899 58,674,879 36.5 2.9 39.4
2005 2,752,761 ,589 909,746,039 112,531,448 33.1 4.1 37.2
2006 3,029,887,300 995,730,257 91,060,719 32.9 3 35.9
2007 4,223,471,205 1,487,046,578 115,318,365 35.2 2.7 37.9
2008 6,383,617,580 1,920,458,845 81,821,128 30.1 1.3 31.4
2009 6,063,933,735 1,858,050,282 101,832,352 30.6 1.7 32.3
Source: COMSTAT online
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34. Poverty and Hunger
34

35. Poverty trends
• Africa as a whole has experienced a moderate decline in the
rate of poverty since 1990
• From 47.0 percent in 1990–95 to 46.5 percent in 1995–2003
and 44.3 percent in 2003–09.
• The COMESA region experienced similar declining trend, with
different levels of intensities across countries.
35

36. Poverty declining.. but still high (1)
International Poverty Line: Poverty rates $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population)
Country Name Most recent year Most recent poverty rates 2011 Estimated
Rates
Burundi 2006 81.3 78.3
Comoros 2004 46.1
DRC 2006 59.2
Egypt 2005 1.9 2.2
Ethiopia 2005 39.0 25.6
Kenya 2005 19.7 19.8
Madagascar 2005 67.8 55.2
Malawi 2004 73.9 64.4
Rwanda 2005 76.8 77.1
Swaziland 2001 62.9 45.7
Tanzania 2007 67.9 58.3
Uganda 2009 28.7 21.4
Zambia 2004 64.9 62.2
Source: http://data.worldbank.org ; 2011 Estimates are authors calculations based on
36
“business as usual scenarios”

37. Poverty declining…but still high (2)
Trends in poverty reduction (with reference to national poverty line) in the
selected countries in the COMECA region
Country Years Poverty incidence (%)
Burundi 1990 34.9
2002 68.0
DRC 2004/05 71.34
Ethiopia 1994/95 49.5
2009/10 29.0
Kenya 1992 44.8
2005/06 45.9
Malawi 1997-98 66.5
2007 40
Madagascar 1993 70
2001 70.1
37

38. Poverty declining…but still high (3)
Country Years Poverty incidence (%)
Rwanda 2000-2001 58.9
2010/11 44.9
Tanzania 1991/92 38.6
2007 33.6
Uganda 1992 56.4
2009 24.5
Zambia 1991 70
2006 64
Source: Based on the available from National surveys
38

39. Population Undernourished (in Millions)
Country Name 1990-1992 1995-1997 2000-2002 2006-2008
Burundi 2.5 3.5 3.9 4.9
Comoros 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4
DRC 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.5
Djibouti 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Eritrea 2.1 2.1 2.7 3.1
Ethiopia 34.7 36.2 32.6 32.6
Kenya 8.1 9.0 10.6 12.4
Madagascar 2.4 3.5 4.4 4.7
Malawi 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.9
Mauritius 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Rwanda 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0
Sudan 10.8 9.3 9.8 8.8
Tanzania 7.7 12.8 14.0 13.9
Uganda 3.5 4.9 4.8 6.7
Zambia 2.9 3.6 4.7 5.4
Zimbabwe 4.3 5.3 5.1 3.7
COMESA 87.8 98.9 100.7 104.3
EAC 24.8 33.2 36.4 40.9
Source: http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-fs/fs-data/ess-fadata/en/ 39

40. Child malnutrition rates (Weight for Age)
Country Name Most Recent Year Most recent malnutrition rates 2011 Estimated
rate
Burundi 2005 39.2 39.6
Comoros 2004 24.9 24.6
DRC 2007 28.2 25.1
Djibouti 2006 29.6 35.8
Egypt 2008 6.8 8.6
Eritrea 2002 34.5 29.5
Ethiopia 2005 34.6 27.4
Kenya 2009 16.4 16.4
Libya 2007 5.6 6.2
Madagascar 2004 36.8 38.2
Malawi 2006 15.5 6.6
Mauritius 1995 13 6
Rwanda 2005 18 15.6
Seychelles 1988 5
Sudan 2006 31.7 27.0
Swaziland 2007 6.1 4.9
Tanzania 2005 16.7 11.0
Uganda 2006 16.4 14.2
Zambia 2007 14.9 10.4
Zimbabwe 2006 14 16.1
40
1Source: http://data.worldbank.org ; 2011 Estimates are authors calculations based on “business as usual scenarios”

41. Global Hunger Index
The index ranks countries on a 100-point scale, with 0 being the best score (no
hunger) and 100 being the worst
20.0 and 29.9 indicates alarming hunger, 30.0 or higher-extremely alarming.
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Comoros
Swaziland
Mauritius
Malawi
Burundi
Madagascar
Rwanda
Uganda
DRC
Djibouti
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Kenya
Tanzania
Zimbabwe
Sudan
Zambia
1990 2003 2010
41
Source: IFPRI, Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe, 2010

42. Trends in GHI…hunger has reduced, but
increased in some countries
% Change in GHI values % Change in GHI values
Country 1990-2010 2003-2010
Burundi 17.5 -10.3
Comoros 5.7 -9.4
DRC 60.8 9.0
Djibouti -23.5 12.4
Ethiopia -32.3 -18.8
Kenya -15.7 -8.9
Madagascar -5.5 -8.1
Malawi -43.5 -28.3
Mauritius -8.2 76.3
Rwanda -18.4 -15.1
Sudan -18.4 -18.6
Swaziland -19.4 -27.4
Tanzania -20.7 -30.9
Uganda -24.6 -19.5
Zambia -14.4 -21.6
Zimbabwe 3.5 -9.9
42
Source: Authors’ computation

43. Rising food prices worsen hunger situation…
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
Ethiopia- Food Total FAO GLOBAL- Food Kenya- Food & Non-Alcoholic Drink
Malawi- Food MauritiusFood And Non Alcoholic Beverages Rwanda- Food And Non-Alcoholic Beverages
Tanzania- Food and Non alcoholic beverages Uganda- Food Zambia- Food
Djibouti - Food
43

44. Food Aid (Tones)… has increased in some countries
Recipient 2002-2004 (A) 2008-2010 (B) % change A-B
Burundi 60,815.8 44440.2 -26.9
DRC 80,850.2 158029.0 95.5
Djibouti 11318.6 14128.0 24.8
Egypt 11,990.1 3367.5 -71.9
Eritrea 258,050.3 5746.7 -97.8
Ethiopia 1013711.1 1185371.2 16.9
Kenya 133360.5 252133.6 89.1
Madagascar 47072.5 27052.7 -42.5
Malawi 127525.6 67657.3 -46.9
Rwanda 52114.3 20414.9 -60.8
Seychelles 0.0 1166.7 ..
Sudan, the 259203.1 553256.4 113.4
Swaziland 16673.1 12541.8 -24.8
Tanzania 109169.0 50318.1 -53.9
Uganda 167933.3 135034.5 -19.6
Zambia 101206.6 18095.2 -82.1
Zimbabwe 274819.0 218169.8 -20.6
COMESA* 2,725,813.2 2,769,423.4 1.6
Source: Computed from data from Food Aid Information System of the WFP
44

45. Concluding remarks (1)
• Process of CAADP implementation is ongoing well in most
countries but some challenges still remain…
– Slow implementation in many countries
– M&E systems need more capacity, better coordination & harmonization
– Huge budget deficits in most investment plans
• Economic growth trends in the region in general appear positive
for most countries but…
• Countries remain vulnerable to external shocks like the global
food price and financial crises, climate extremes, etc
• Food and nutritional security remain a major problem in most
countries.
• Need to eliminate existing barriers to trade…
45

46. Concluding remarks (2)
• Agricultural productivity growth in the region has been
impressive but still below potential
• Hence need for significant investments in agricultural R&D an
other investments
46