Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2013: Trade and Resilience
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This document is an annual trends and outlook report by IFPRI/Badiane focusing on trade and resilience in Africa. It contains the following key points: 1) It analyzes progress against CAADP growth and budget targets for agriculture at the regional economic community and country levels in Africa. 2) It examines how regional trade can boost resilience in Africa by increasing incomes, stabilizing supply and prices, and diversifying exports. 3) It explores how global trade also enhances resilience in Africa through price stabilization and reduced supply volatility compared to domestic markets.
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Annual Trends and Outlook Report 2013: Trade and Resilience
- 1. IFPRI/Badiane OUSMANE BADIANE Director for Africa Interna:onal Food Policy Research Ins:tute ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORT 2013 Feature Topic: Trade and Resilience
- 2. MAIN TOPICS 1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS 2 3 REGIONAL TRADE AND RESILIENCE GLOBAL TRADE AND RESILIENCE ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORT 2013 FEATURE TOPIC: TRADE AND RESILIENCE
- 3. MAIN TOPICS 1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS 2 3 REGIONAL TRADE AND RESILIENCE GLOBAL TRADE AND RESILIENCE ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORT 2013 FEATURE TOPIC: TRADE AND RESILIENCE
- 4. OVERALL GDP GROWTH TRENDS Annual GDP growrth rate, 1980 – 2010 COMESA Annual GDP growrth rate, 1980 – 2010 ECCAS Annual GDP growrth rate, 1980 – 2010 ECOWAS Annual GDP growrth rate, 1980 – 2010 SADC
- 5. PROGRESS TOWARDS GROWTH TARGET – BY RECs Agriculture GDP growth, 1980 – 2010 COMESA Agriculture GDP growth, 1980 – 2010 ECCAS Agriculture GDP growth, 1980 – 2010 ECOWAS Agriculture GDP growth, 1980 – 2010 SADC
- 6. PROGRESS TOWARDS GROWTH TARGET BY COUNTRY -‐ COMESA Agriculture GDP growth by country, 1980 – 2010 COMESA
- 7. PROGRESS TOWARDS GROWTH TARGET BY COUNTRY -‐ ECCAS Agriculture GDP growth by country, 1980 – 2010 ECCAS
- 8. PROGRESS TOWARDS GROWTH TARGET BY COUNTRY -‐ ECOWAS Agriculture GDP growth by country, 1980 – 2010 ECOWAS
- 9. PROGRESS TOWARDS GROWTH TARGET BY COUNTRY -‐ SADC Agriculture GDP growth by country, 1980 – 2010 SADC
- 10. PROGRESS TOWARDS MAPUTO TARGET BY RECs Agriculture expenditure share, 1980 – 2010 COMESA Agriculture expenditure share, 1980 – 2010 ECCAS Agriculture expenditure share, 1980 – 2010 ECOWAS Agriculture expenditure share, 1980 – 2010 SADC
- 11. PROGRESS TOWARDS MAPUTO TARGET BY COUNTRY -‐ COMESA Agriculture expenditure share by country -‐ COMESA
- 12. PROGRESS TOWARDS MAPUTO TARGET BY COUNTRY -‐ ECCAS Agriculture expenditure share by country -‐ ECCAS
- 13. PROGRESS TOWARDS MAPUTO TARGET BY COUNTRY -‐ ECOWAS Agriculture expenditure share by country -‐ ECOWAS
- 14. PROGRESS TOWARDS MAPUTO TARGET BY COUNTRY -‐ SADC Agriculture expenditure share by country -‐ SADC
- 15. ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF PUBLIC AG. EXPENDITURE – 2003 -‐ 2010 Source: Benin and Yu. ATOR 2012.
- 16. MAIN TOPICS 1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS 2 3 REGIONAL TRADE AND RESILIENCE GLOBAL TRADE AND RESILIENCE ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORT 2013 FEATURE TOPIC: TRADE AND RESILIENCE
- 17. EXPORT GROWTH INDUST. GROWTH 1% Growth 0.04% To 1.83% AGR. EXPORT AND DOMESTIC GROWTH 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Niger Senegal Zambia Burkina Faso The increase in non-‐agricultural incomes resul:ng from $1.00 incremental revenue from sales of agricultural products The increase in non-‐agricultural growth resul:ng from 1% incremental revenue from agricultural exports TRADE AND RESILIENCE: THE INCOME/REVENUE CHANNEL
- 18. 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% Ra:o between domes:c and global supply vola:lity GLOBAL TRADE AND RESILIENCE: THE SUPPLY STABILIZATION CHANNEL
- 19. • World prices of maize, rice, and wheat are less volatile (0.073 – 0.082) than African prices of the same commodities (0.094 – 0.144) • Prices of tradable goods in Africa are less volatile (0.106) than prices of non-tradable goods (0.133) • Prices of processed foods (bread & cooking oil) are less volatile than prices of unprocessed foods • Prices of drought-resistant grains (millet & sorghum) are less volatile than prices of other non- tradable grains (maize) GLOBAL TRADE AND RESILIENCE: THE PRICE STABILIZATION CHANNEL
- 20. -‐1 -‐0.8 -‐0.6 -‐0.4 -‐0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 ZAF ZWE Oceania Africa NGA UGA BFA BWA MOZ SSA South America CPV NER ZMB STP North America CAF NAM CEMAC RWA CIV COG SEN GAB TUN Asia Correla:on between export and import prices for agricultural products TRADE AND RESILIENCE: THE EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION CHANNEL
- 21. MAIN TOPICS 1 REPORT AGAINST CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGET TARGETS 2 3 REGIONAL TRADE AND RESILIENCE GLOBAL TRADE AND RESILIENCE ANNUAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK REPORT 2013 FEATURE TOPIC: TRADE AND RESILIENCE
- 22. Potential agribusiness growth and expected income to farmers US$ billion 3 8 50 10 10.5 150 High value exports Commodities Urban food 2000 2030 2.9 1.6 30 Potential Increased farmer income in 2030 Expected sector growth to 2030 Increase in Demand and Incomes in Billion US$ IFPRI/Badiane REGIONAL TRADE AND RESILIENCE: THE INCOME/REVENUE CHANNEL
- 23. REGIONAL TRADE AND RESILIENCE: THE SUPPLY STABILIZATION CHANNEL Coted'Ivoire ECOWAS Togo Guinea Benin BurkinaFaso GuineaBissau Ghana Nigeria Niger Senegal Mali Gambia Liberia 0 10 20 30 40 50 ECOWAS Cereal Production Instability, 1980--2010 COMESA Comoros Egypt Uganda Burundi DRC Kenya Madagascar Angola Namibia Malawi Sudan Swaziland Zambia Rwanda Zimbabwe Mauritius 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 COMESA Cereal Production Instability, 1980--2010 SADC South.Africa Angola Namibia Malawi Mozambique Swaziland Zambia Lesotho Zimbabwe Bostowana Mauritius 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 SADC cereal production instability, 1980--2010 The difference between the average regional produc:on vola:lity levels and individual country vola:lity indicates scope of domes:c market stabiliza:on through regional trade
- 24. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0-‐10 10-‐20 20-‐30 30-‐40 40-‐50 50-‐60 60-‐70 70-‐80 80-‐90 90-‐100 Number of country Pairs Produc@on Similarity Index COMESA ECOWAS SADC Similarity of produc:on paferns within RECs, 2007-‐2011 SPECIALIZATION AND TRADE EXPANSION POTENTIAL More scope for trade Less scope for trade
- 25. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0-‐10 10-‐20 20-‐30 30-‐40 40-‐50 50-‐60 60-‐70 70-‐80 80-‐90 90-‐100 Number of Country Pairs Export Similarity Index COMESA ECOWAS SADC Similarity of export paferns within RECs, 2007-‐2011 SPECIALIZATION AND TRADE EXPANSION POTENTIAL More scope for trade Less scope for trade
- 26. q Baseline = 2000-‐2007 q SIM1 = 0.5% reduc:on in trade cost annually 2013 – 2020 q SIM2 = 50% increase in yields by 2020 q SIM3 = Combine SIM1 and SIM2 ALTERNATIVE POLICY OPTIONS TO EXPAND REGIONAL TRADE
- 27. 0 5 10 15 20 25 BurkinaFaso CapeVerde Chad Gambia Mali Mauritania Niger Senegal Percentage BASE SIM1 SIM2 SIM3 CHANGE IN REGIONAL IMPORTS SAHELIAN COUNTRIES BY 2020 UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
- 28. -‐15 -‐10 -‐5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 BurkinaFaso CapeVerde Chad Gambia Mali Mauritania Niger Senegal Percentage BASE SIM1 SIM2 SIM3 CHANGE IN REGIONAL EXPORTS SAHELIAN COUNTRIES BY 2020 UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
- 29. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Baseline SIM1 SIM2 SIM3 Percentage CHANGE IN TOTAL WEST AFRICAN INTRA-‐REGIONAL EXPORTS BY 2020 UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS