Metrics for Agricultural Transformation: Update on Recent and Ongoing Developments April 19, 2013 Washington, DC

1. Comparative Science, Technology, and
Innovation Systems
in
Developing-Country Agriculture
What Can We Measure and What Can We Not?
David J Spielman
International Food Policy Research Institute
Washington, DC
April 19, 2013

2. Metrics and measurements
• Technical & economic indicators
• Innovation system indicators
• Measurement issues

3. Technical & economic indicators
Inputs
• Public investment in agricultural R&D
– Pardey & Roseboom (1989); Pardey & Beintema (2000); Beintema et al. (2012)
Outputs
• New varieties, practices, technologies, systems
• Publications, patents, and variety registrations
Outcomes
• Changes in cereal, livestock yields; natural resource stocks
• Changes in agricultural total factor productivity change (Coelli & Rao 2003)
Impacts
• Rates of returns to agricultural R&D
– Alston, Norton, & Pardey (1995); Alston et al. (2000)
• Contribution of R&D to productivity growth
– Evenson & Gollin (2003); Evenson & Rosegrant (2003)
• Contribution of R&D to poverty reduction
– Fan, Hazell & Thorat (2000); Hazell & Haddad (2001); Adato, Meinzen-Dick & Suseela (2007)

4. Input indicators:
Public expenditure on agricultural R&D
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Constant(2005)US$mPPP
Sub-Saharan Africa (45)
China
India
Asia & Pacific (26)
Brazil
Latin America & Caribbean (28)
West Asia & North Africa (13)
Source: Beintema & Stads (2012); ASTI (2012)

5. Output indicators:
R&D on improved nutritional/quality traits
In regulatory
In research articles
Source: Graff, Zilberman, & Bennett (2010)
In initial field trials
In advanced field trials

6. Output indicators:
Contributions of genetic improvement to yield growth
51%
83%
56%
23%
66%
88%
69%
28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Latin America Asia Middle East/North
Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Share of area to modern varieties (1998)
Total genetic improvement contribution to yield growth (1965-1998, % per year)
Sources: Renkow & Byerlee (2010); Evenson & Gollin (2003)

7. Outcome indicators:
Agricultural TFP index for sub-Saharan Africa (1961=100)
Source: Fuglie & Rada (2012)

8. Agricultural innovation system
Agroprocessors
Exporters
Producer
organizations
Input suppliers
Credit agencies
Land agencies
Government policy and regulatory framework
Informal institutions, practices, behaviors, and attitudes
Consumers
Standards agencies
Farmers
National extension and
business development
services
National
agricultural
research system
National education and
training organizations
Farmers &
entrepreneurs
Bridging and coordination
organizations
Science, technology, and innovation systems
Source: World Bank (2012)

9. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Bangladesh
Burkina Faso
Senegal
Ghana
Kenya
India
China
South Africa
Thailand
Brazil
United States
Finland
Index (1-7)
Source: World Economic Forum (2013)
Global competitiveness index

10. Knowledge economy index
Source: World Bank (2012)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Finland
United States
Brazil
Thailand
South Africa
China
India
Kenya
Ghana
Senegal
Burkina Faso
Bangladesh
Index score (1−10)
ICT Education Innovation Economic Incentive Regime

11. BE
CZ
DK
DE
EE
HR
ES
FR
IE
IT
CY
EL
LT
LU
HU MT
NL AT
PL
PT
SI
SK
FI
SE
UK
BG
RO
TR
IS
NO
US
JP
CH
LV
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
SummaryInnovationIndex(0−1)
Average growth rate of SII
Dotted lines show EU25 mean performance.
Innovation Leaders
Catching-up
Followers
Trailing
European innovation scoreboard
Source: Hollanders and Arundel 2004; CEC (2006); Hollanders, pers. comm.

12. • Epistemological debate
– Can quantitative measures adequately explain a system that is highly
complex, context-specific, and endogenous?
• Methodological debate
– How robust is the selection, construction, and interpretation of
indicators?
• Policy debate
– Can measurements of innovation influence policy change?
Challenges in
measuring science, technology, and innovation

13. Thank you