A Powerpoint rant about the Online Game industry.

1. MMOs and the future
A brief analysis
By
Rich Bryant

2. How all MMOS work
• Start from nothing
Kill Rats.
Kill bigger rats
Max level yet?
Bigger shoulders
No
Yes

3. • And that’s really it. There are some problems
with this approach, though.
Let’s go kill something and get bigger shoulders!
Level mismatch is a bitch.
Let’s go hit that new bar-themed dungeon!
YOU MUST BE THIS TALL TO RIDE THIS RIDE.
EVEN IF YOU PAID.

4. And really, that’s only the superficial problems. Look a little deeper.
Deserted newb zones are wasted dev investment
Ah, I remember killing rats in there…
Endgame is where everyone looks, acts and dresses the same
Look daughter, the hero who saved
our village is fourth from the right!
And third from the right. And… er… they all saved
the village. From the same thing. At different times.
Hooray! It’s still in the same danger though….

5. But wait, it gets worse for you…..
Run hamster, run!
Players are reckoned on average to burn through new content
within two payment cycles. Unless you make it a massive grind.
And even if it’s grindy….
This guy will eat it in 9 hours.
THERE ARE MILLIONS OF THIS GUY.

6. And the real problem – the Skinner Box. Let’s think about those big shoulders.
Basically, you go grind->level->ding.
Until you hit max level. Then you get
loot. All of this makes you more and
more powerful and there’s a ceiling.
Traditionally, you can do PvP and PvE.
Now, in PvE, you have a problem. Once
players hit the ceiling, then what?
You raise the ceiling. And that’s
expensive, because content creation
always is.

7. But wait – you’ve got a far bigger problem.
How do you stop players burning up all
your content in 34 seconds? By
making it so damn hard that you need
40 of them to kill one boss. Awesome.
But for that, players need players. And
players won’t take players who haven’t
achieved their level of Uber yet.
Thing is, once you’ve raised the level cap and instituted AA systems, new players are a
long way behind. They need groups to achieve high enough levels to catch the vets. But
there are no groups. You just created a barrier to entry. So vets are burning out or
capping out and quitting, and newbs are quitting because of your barrier. You asshole.

8. But there’s still PvP, right?
You wish. Here, your problem
is way, way worse. See, you
probably decided to give PvP
rewards for PvP, right? And
you made those rewards into
combat powerups?
So you made somebody who’s
hard to beat really, really
hard to beat? So to your
basic newb, that guy is
unkillable?
What the hell is wrong with you?

9. Your PvP is now dead. Over. Kaput.
You probably made this
mistake because you don’t
PvP. But I do, because I am a
bad person. So take it from
me, PvP is carnivorous. If it
doesn’t get fresh meat and
plenty of it, it starves.
And you don’t want
that, because PvP is cheap.
Hell, once it’s initially
coded, it should be free
content. This is stuff you
should be able to implement
and forget. It’s free money.
You really want healthy PvP.
The only solution at this stage is a revamp which players hate, or endless new content.
The latter requires endless money. You’re not Blizzard or you wouldn’t be reading this.

10. Alright then, let’s talk about it.

11. Let’s assume you have limitless money.
And time. Lots and lots of man-
hours waiting to be burned.

12. And you’re publisher who doesn’t play games…..
Then you’d probably ask this
question. And the answer is no.
And your game will fail.
And you will lose all of your money.

13. Let me explain. Even if you launched right now with absolutely every feature of WoW and
your own special gimmicky nonsense like class stories or voice acting – sorry, too soon? –
you’d still fail. Because your market is WoW players. And they have 13 years worth of stuff
in WoW.
Oh, and all their
friends and
guildies are in
WoW, too.
And they like WoW. Because if they don’t like WoW, they don’t like your game
because it basically is WoW. So why would they leave?
They won’t. At least, not for longer than it takes to see that your game is WoW
without all their stuff in it. And then EA will sack your staff – sorry, still too soon?

14. Basically, DIKU fails unless you’re WoW. The DIKU market is gone. Deal with it.
WoW with wings!

15. EverQuest with crafting!

16. The world’s grindiest grind!

17. World of Dark Age of
Camelot-craft!

18. In fact, even where you have a successful game, the producers and franchise owners
will, in search of more money, spend a fortune trying to turn it into WoW.
That doesn’t work, either.

19. Want proof? Okay.
Niche PvP game? No! Turn it into a DIKU PvE
power-grinder and lose 90% of subscribers!

20. Oh yeah,
lest we forget…

21. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
-George Santayana
Oh, fuck your “too soon”.

22. Recap!
1. You can’t beat WoW with a WoW-clone. Not even if you’re BioWare.
2. The DIKU model is hugely expensive in the long term and you can’t afford it.
3. A niche is a good place to be. Love your niches.
4. Iterative design has peaked on the Grinder model. Cut that shit out.
5. If they can’t play with their friends, they won’t play at all.
6. A barrier to entry is a barrier to getting paid.
Let’s restate in stronger terms – Players who want WoW
mechanics already play WoW. They will not play your half-assed
clone for long enough to cover costs. You will fail.
However…..

23. ..And here’s where I become the idealistic, naïve gamer again
It doesn’t have to be that way.
Exhibit #A
Chartered accountancy in space.
Spreadsheets&Sliderules
The nichiest niche of all, is currently
at over 400,000 paying subscribers
and still growing.

24. MMOs have always taken ideas from single-player games.
Nobody makes single player games like today’s MMOs,
because they would suck.
So. What doesn’t suck?
Conquering territory.
That never gets old, provided
you get to keep it.
How can you keep it?
By clever design.

25. What else? Well….
Teamwork. Strategy.
Tactics. Being in command.
This is called “having a team
when you have no team”
Amazing.

26. And of course…
Genuine stealth systems.
Not this “ooh, I’m
invisible” bullshit.
The player really should
be required to think.
Otherwise it’s a job.
In McDonalds.

27. Or even…..
Reactive control systems? Why not? Was spamming your F3 button too much fun?
Anyway.
The point is, we’re stealing the wrong stuff. We steal the crap that the single
-player world grew out of years ago. Objectively, MMOs are terrible games.

28. But what about this guy? He wants 20 million active subs!
Tough shit. He can’t have them.
The studios will have to learn that
a smaller outlay and a better project
will make a proportionately higher
return.
And players should play because
they want to. Not because you caught
them in a Skinner Box.
When you make good games, you don’t
need to make everything powerup based.

29. And what about this guy?
That guy plays WoW.
That guy will always play WoW.
That guy will never play your
game for more than a month
because he plays WoW.
Stop developing for that guy.
Stop it now.
You’re pissing away money.
FORGET THAT GUY.

30. fin.
Incidentally, I do have a design for a game
that breaks all the WoW-clone rules and
solves the Wizard problem. Drop me an
email if you’re serious about better games.
my_big_idea@live.co.uk should work..