AAPOR Conference 2013
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AAPOR Conference 2013
- 1. Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO Daniel Cox, Director of Research Public Religion Research Institute WHO COUNTS AS WHITE WORKING CLASS? A Proposal for a New Approach Analysis by
- 2. Many Approaches to Measuring White Working Class How to Define White Working Class: - Education: Having less than a 4-year college education (Frank 2004; Brooks 2005) - Income: Lower third of the income distribution (Bartels 2008, McCarty Poole and Rosenthal 2008); household income under $30,000 (Texeira and Abramowitz 2008) - Occupation: Traditionally blue collar occupation categories (i.e. service industry, construction, transportation) (Manza and Brooks 1999) - Self-Identity: Subjective assessment of social class A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America
- 3. Why Not Income? Problems with Income: 1. Missing Data: In many public opinion surveys 10-15% of respondents refuse to answer income question. 2. Geographically and Temporally Biased: Does not capture variation in living costs between different regions or community types (i.e. Chicago, IL vs. Jackson, MS) and at different life stages. 3. Household Size: Many income measures are based on overall household estimates, do not capture variation in household size. 4. Retirees, Unemployed: Does not account for retirees or the unemployed often on modest fixed incomes, may not reflect their levels of educational attainment or past occupational prestige. 5. Occupational Prestige: Does not take into account differences in occupational prestige and earning potential between occupations (i.e. adjunct professors, professional tradesmen). A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America
- 4. Why Not Occupation? Problems with Occupation: 1. Difficult to Collect: It is very time consuming and expensive to collect occupational data; very few datasets include occupational questions. 2. No Standard Measure: Unlike education and income, which both have fairly standardized categories, there is little agreement about which occupational categories should be included or how they should be grouped. 3. Retirees, Students, Disabled, Homemakers: Similar to income, occupation is dependent on being employed. These groups are not currently employed in an occupation, yet account for a significant, and in the case of students, a growing part of the American adult population. A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America
- 5. Why Not Education? Problems with Education: 1. Too inclusive: Close to half of the country identifies as white working class based on this definition. 2. Generationally Biased: Rising levels of education means that older respondents are far more likely to be categorized as working class, even if in many respects (income, occupation prestige) they do not fit. 3. Some-College Problem: Many education measures include a “some college” education category that includes current 4-year students, college dropouts and people with 2-year associate degrees. A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America
- 6. A New Education-Based Definition of White Working Class Requires a total of three questions, in addition to race and education. - Basic Requirements: - 1) white, non-Hispanic - 2) No 4-year college education - Supplemental Requirements: Employment Status Additional Requirement Employed Have a non-salaried position Unemployed/Retired Had a non-salaried position Homemaker/Disabled None Student Identify as working or lower class A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America
- 7. I. A PROFILE OF THE WHITE WORKING CLASS Size Economic Circumstances Politics Culture A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 7
- 8. Size of the White Working Class A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 8
- 9. Household Income by Social Class A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 9
- 10. Financial Shape by Social Class A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 10
- 11. THE 2012 ELECTION Economic Issues Influencing Vote Choice The 2012 Vote A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 11
- 12. Economic Issues in 2012 Election A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 12 43 19 12 14 6 4 33 33 5 17 10 1 Lack of jobs The budget deficit Social Security The gap between rich and poor Taxes Welfare Note: Among those who said economy was most important issue to their vote Source: 2012 American Values Survey, October 2012 Economic Issue Most Important to Your Vote (2012) White Working Class White college educated
- 13. 2012 Vote by Class A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 13 50 33 53 48 65 46 All Americans White Working Class White college educated Source: 2012 Post-election American Values Survey, November 2012 The 2012 Vote Preference (Among Voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney
- 14. CULTURE AND WORLDVIEW Race Gender Roles Consumer Preferences A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 14
- 15. Traditional Gender Roles A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 15 40 49 28 57 47 67 All Americans White Working Class White college educated Source: Race, Class and Religion Survey, 2012 Family life suffers when the woman has a full-time job Agree Disagree
- 16. Target vs. Walmart A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 16 48 56 30 40 33 60 12 11 11 All Americans White Working Class White college educated Source: Race, Class and Religion Survey, 2012 Prefer to Shop at Walmart or Target? Walmart Target Both/Neither/DK
- 17. Government Assistance to Minority Groups A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 17 40 50 32 57 46 65 All Americans White Working Class White college educated Source: Race, Class and Religion Survey, 2012 Government has paid too much attention to the problems of blacks and other minorities Agree Disagree
- 18. II. COMPARING NEW DEFINITION TO SIMPLE EDUCATION DEFINITION Economic Circumstances Marital Status Economic Optimism Social Issues A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 18
- 19. New Definition vs. Education Only Definition A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 19
- 20. Financial Situation A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 20 33 52 63 66 46 35 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 White Working Class Misidentified respondents White college educated Current Personal Financial Situation Excellent/Good Fair/Poor
- 21. Self-reported Social Class A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 21 5 21 25 38 51 55 41 24 18 16 3 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 White Working Class Misidentified respondents White college educated Self Reported Social Class Upper/Upper middle class Middle class Working class Lower class
- 22. Household Income A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 22 33 16 11 25 17 13 16 17 19 14 37 46 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 White Working Class Misidentified respondents White college educated Household Income Less than $30,000 $30K - $50 $50-$75K More than $75K
- 23. Employment Status A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 23 20 36 21 3 10 7 4 17 6 7 11 3 8 40 45 59 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 White Working Class Misidentified respondents White college educated Employment Status Retired Student Homemaker Unemployed/Disabled Part-time Full-time
- 24. Economic Optimism A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 24 47 59 63 47 38 32 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 White Working Class Misidentified respondents White college educated Views About the American Dream Still holds true Once held true, but not anymore
- 25. Economic Optimism A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 25 46 55 57 46 36 34 8 9 8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 White Working Class Misidentified respondents White college educated America's Best Days are... Ahead of us Behind us Depends/DK
- 26. Similarities on Social Issues: Abortion & Gay Marriage A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 26 50 51 63 43 42 58 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 White Working Class Misidentified respondents White college educated Social Issues Abortion should be legal in all or most cases Favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry
- 27. Definition Requirements Requires three questions in addition to standard education and race/ethnicity questions. 1. Employment: Which of the following best describes your current employment situation – employed full-time, employed part-time, retired, a homemaker, a student, unemployed but looking for work, or unemployed and not looking for work? 2. Job Payment Type: Which of the following best describes how you [IF RETIRED OR UNEMPLOYED, ASK: “got”] get paid at work? Are [“Were”] you paid an hourly rate, paid a salary or paid by the job? 3. Social Class: If you were asked to use one of these five names for your social class, which would you say you belong in? Upper-class, Upper-middle class, Middle class, Working class, or Lower class? A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America
- 28. Conclusion A New Approach to Defining the White Working Class in America 28 Advantages: 1. Cost: PRRI’s definition requires the inclusion of only three relatively short questions. 2. Validity: PRRI’s definition produces a group that has unique economic experiences and a distinct cultural worldview 3. Reliability: PRRI’s definition produces extremely consistent results both in terms of group size, demographics and attitudes. 4. Comprehensive: Despite the use only a few questions, the definition is able to include the entire adult population. Does not exclude anyone based on employment status. 5. Parsimonious: The definition includes as few measures as possible while retaining significant leverage over an education only definition.
Notes de l'éditeur
- Last year we set out to conduct research on the white working class. Two goals for this project:1) Attempt to provide a comprehensive look at the economic experiences, cultural outlook, and political orientations of the WWC—in an 18 minute.2) To develop a definition that is efficient and replicable; something we could then use in subsequent surveys.
- There are three measures that work as proxies for social class—education, income and occupation—and they tend to overlapping but distinct people which has significant implications for our politics. The definition effects the size (political clout), and their economic and political preferences. For instance, research that uses income as a proxy for finds that white working class are more liberal and prefer Democratic candidates.In the next few slides I’m going to lay out some of the weaknesses of using any one of these approaches—both practical and theoretical(Some scholars have attempted to use a combined approach using education, income and occupation (Abramowitz and Texeira 2009), however critics note that the correlation between these measures is fairly low.)
- Income has served as a common proxy for class in much of the recent literature on WWC (Bartels 2008; McCarty, Poole and Rosenthal 2008; Stonecash 2000)Regional and Temporal Bias: Many recent college graduates would fall into the working class category.Occupational Prestige: Using income as a proxy for class ignores how they earned it, their potential for growth and the social prestige derived from their positionOccupation has been shown to be a better predictor of permanent income and wealth than individual income at any one moment in time.“The part-time school teacher, the semi-skilled factory worker, the college student working part-time as a computer programmer, and the self-employed artist might all report the same income on their tax returns. But as salaried, hourly, or self-employed they have different sources of income... and ultimately very different life chances” (Manza and Brooks 1999)
- Occupation generally considered the best proxy for social class and among the measures most commonly used.It determines the type of people you socialize with, strongly associated with lifetime earning potential and creates shared economic interests.However…it is very difficult information to collect, 1) Measurement becomes particularly difficult on telephone surveys—only method would be to ask an open-end question.2) No Standard Measure: The sheer number of different professions—which is constantly changing—makes binary classifications incredibly difficult and in some sense arbitrary. 3) Exclusionary: Occupation like income depends entirely on current employment status. Some groups become next to impossible to classify using occupation alone. Manza and Brooks put Retirees, students, disabled and homemakers in the same class category. This is a very large heterogeneous group.
- Using education makes a lot of sense…1) It determines your credentials for employment it is closely tied to occupational prestige and job security. 2) The college experience also impacts cultural and political values, it increases tolerance for out-groups3) It is widely available measure.However…. It also shares some problems.1) Education-based definitions invariably over-estimate the size of the white working class. In our surveys they would account for close to half of the U.S. population.2)
- Given the numerous problems with income and the logistical challenges of using occupation, particularly on telephone surveys, we opted to base our definition on education.But there were two issues we sought to address:1) The size of the group—we believe that an education only definition was including people it should not2) We wanted to make sure that we were sensitive of people with different employment statuses.
- In this section I will compare the unique economic circumstances, and worldview of the white working class to college-educated whites.
- - White working class Americans account for 36% of the population; in the two subsequent surveys we conducted the size has remained very close.34% in AVS 201234% in Immigration Survey 201311% slice would also be classified as white working class if we were to use only an education definition
- The majority of white working class Americans have HH incomes of $50,000 a year or less, while a quarter earn between $50K and $100K. In contrast, less than 1-in-4 white college educated Americans have HH incomes of less than $50,000; 3-in-10 have incomes in excess of $100,000
- Similar patterns emerge in subjective reports of financial well-beingRoughly 3-in-10 WWC report that their personal financial situation is poor; 4-in-10 say it is only fair; so two-thirds say they are doing only fair or poor financiallyIn contrast only about 1-in-3 white college educated Americans report being in similar financial shape; majority say they are doing good or excellent.
- The voting priorities of both groups differ significantly.When asked what the most important economic issue was plurality of WWC said lack of jobs; double the number the cited the deficitWCE were as likely to cite jobs as the deficit; one-third mentioned each issueWWC were twice as likely as WCE to say that social security was the most important issue.Interestingly, WCE more likely to cite gap between rich and poor; reflects an interesting dynamic where many WWC who are financially struggling nonetheless do not view themselves as poor and in fact WWC tend to have much more negative attitudes about poor people than WCE
- The 2012 election was a fairly quite close race, but WWC voted decisively for Romney.WCE voted for Obama over Romney but by a much narrower marginThere were significant regional differences in vote preferences among WWC; for instance in OH WWC split their vote between the candidates; three-quarters of WWC in the South favored Romney
- - WWC more likely to embrace traditional gender roles.- Most Americans disagree that family life suffers when the woman has a full time job; WWC are narrowly divided; WCE overwhelmingly reject this notion.
- Americans overall slightly prefer Walmart over target; WWC strongly prefer Walmart; while the majority of WCE prefer TargetFound similar preference differences for Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts
- When it comes to race and government assistance there is also a stark class divide.WWC are evenly divided over whether the govt has paid too much attention to the problems of blacks; while two thirds of WCE reject this statement.
- Our definition then seems to capture a distinct group at least compared to WCE Americans.Is it necessary; is an educational definition enough? To answer that we will look at the slice of respondents who are included in an educational-only definition but are excluded from ours.
- - First, it’s important to note that we are not talking about a trivial number of people. Our definition eliminates 23% of respondents from the education-only definition, who I will refer to as misidentified respondents moving forward.
- How do these groups compare financially?Two-thirds of WWC say they doing fair or poor financially, while the majority of mis identified respondents say they are doing good or excellent;They more closely resemble WCE than WWC
- Looking at self reported class we see that the majority of WWC identify either as working class or lower class.Only about one-quarter of misidentified respondents identify this way; again they look much more like WCE—21% are upper or upper middle class
- - The majority of WWC have HH incomes of less than $50K compared to about one-quarter of misidentified respondents and roughly equal number of WCE
- - Nearly half of this misidentified groups is composed of retirees and students, two groups that are problems for using an education-pnly definition.
- We also see differences in economic outlook and worldview.For instance, WWC are divided over whether the American Dream still holds true or once held true but not anymore. 6-in-10 misidentified respondents and similar numbers of WCE believe that the American Dream still holds true.
- Similar pattern on measures of economic optimism.- WWC are evenly divided over whether America’s best days are ahead of us or behind us, while a majority of misidentified respondents believe that America’s best days are ahead of us, nearly identical to the number of WCE
- - One place where we do not see differences between the misidentified respondents is on social issues. On both abortion and gay marriage we see the response patterns between WWC and misidentified respondents are nearly identical; both groups are much less supportive of legalized abortion and gay marriage.
- Given the significant differences between the groups we believe that it is preferable to exclude these misidentified respondents from our definition. Particularly because the cost of doing so is not that high.Definition requires the inclusion of three addition questions that can easily be incorporated into a demographic battery.
- - Class matters in American society both in terms of identity--how we relate to other social groups--and structuring economic interests and cultural preferences. Despite the fact that we don’t often talk about class in the U.S. research has shown that Americans are fairly class conscious and can be divided effectively according to what socio-economic strata they occupy.- The degree to which social scientists and pollsters could come to some agreement about a defensible methodological approach would help us continue to learn about this important group.