The document discusses the concept of technological change and paradigm shifts. It notes that technology is constantly advancing at an accelerating pace, leading to discontinuities where new technologies replace old ones. This process creates both winners and losers as some companies adapt while others fail to change. The document urges readers to identify limits to current approaches, draw sigmoid curves to visualize technological progress, and continuously improve and innovate to stay ahead of change. It argues that those who embrace chaos and change will thrive, while those resistant to change will struggle.

1. c
gi
Lo
Technology Limits
ar
ne
ili
rv
Cu
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve
c
gi
Lo
Rapid Growth
ar
ne
Initial
ili
rv
Cu
Raman Kannan
DNA Laboratory, Monmouth University
http://www.monmouth.edu/monmouth/academic/dna

2. Change! We must!
“There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures”.
Brutus,
Julius Caesar, Act IV, Scene 3
Change = Vision + Energy + Power + Plan
The Only Thing That Matters - Karl Albrecht
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 2

3. Perpetually Accelerating Change ...
“I accost an American Sailor, and inquire why the
ships of his country are built so as to last but for a
short time; he answers without hesitation that the
art of navigation is every day making such rapid
progress that the finest vessel would become almost
useless if it lasted beyond a few years”
Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America 1840
The Only Thing That Matters - Karl Albrecht
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 3

4. It has always been that way...
T.J. Watson Sr.
Container shipment
Our way of life rewards change and innovation ..
And is unforgiving if resistant to change ...
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 4

5. Winners Thrive on Chaos!
And, Boeing was in the business of selling furniture.
With silicon rather than germanium
TI overtook giants like Hughes ...
Whatever happened to GE , RCA
and others based on vaccum tube
technology ...
Do not ask “Is it safe out there?”
And that is why Columbus stands tall ...
Paradigms - The Business of Discovering Future by Joel Arthur Barker
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 5

6. What is at work?
Paradigm and Change ....
A paradigm is a set of rules and regulations (written)
or unwritten) that does two things: (1) It establishes
or defines boundaries; and (2) it tells you how to behave inside
the boundaries in order to be successful.
The most fundamental set of assumptions adopted by a
professional community that allows its members to share
similar perceptions and engage in commonly shared practices
is called a paradigm.
-- CACM Vol. 32 10, 1202, 1989
Paradigms - The Business of Discovering Future by Joel Arthur Barker
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 6

7. Paradigm at Work...
if it is not within belief set .. then the actions and
actors become irrelevant ....
Russian soldiers who cut the electric bulb after World War I
Anyone .. even the Chess Grandmasters....
Prof. Herbert Simon at CMU
A well documented board ... vs random position....
Innovation: The Attacker’s Advantage by Richard Foster
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 7

8. Sigmoid Curves
Limit of the Technology
Rapid Growth
Initial
Innovation: The Attacker’s Advantage by Richard Foster
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 8

9. Technology Discontinuities
Limit of the Technology
Rapid Growth
New Technology
Initial
Innovation: The Attacker’s Advantage by Richard Foster
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 9

10. Technology Discontinuities
When one technology replaces another
• Nylon tires became polyester tires
• Vacuum tubes became germanium .. onto silicon ..
• Telephone Switches -- gone are the operators ...
People resist ..
When Cars where introduced ... jobs were
going to be lost ...
In retrospect .. we would not be where we are today!
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 10

11. Waves of Discontinuities ...
Not just once ... but many times over time...
Not just in small artifacts....
Discontinuity at all levels....
A macroscopic global discontinuity for example...
Communication Revolution
Adopted from
The Third Wave Digital Revolution
--Alvin Teffler
Industrial Revolution
Agricultural Revolution
Nomadic (pre-agrarian)
800 0 BC 170 0 BC 195 0 BC
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 11

12. Winners and Losers ...
Company Product Status
P and G Pampers and Tide Winner
Citibank ATM Winner
Michelin Radial Winner
NCR Electro-Mechanical Looser
Fall River Boats Sail Boats Looser
Casio/Citizen Digital Watch Winner
Xerox Copier Winner
U.S. Surgicals Stapes Winner
When a paradigm shift occurs.. everyone goes to zero ....
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 12

13. Shift ... Monetary System
Must be revolutionary ...
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 13

14. Shift ... Teaming the only way
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 14

15. Shift ... Bytes not Bullets ...
The Virtual Corporation by William H. Davidow & Michael S. Malone
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 15

16. Now showing in a theater ...
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 16

17. And one thing leads to another ...
A mom and pop store in Maine offers its product
over the Internet.
Customer Base - World Wide ...
Product -- Does it matter! (Flea markets .. moving sale..)
Investment -- Must be a fraction ...
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 17

18. Perpetual Transformation
Operator assisted phonecalls
u
eliminate the operator (calling cards)
u
Caller is the operator (speech recognition)
u
It is happening everywhere, all the time and in every dimension
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 18

19. Algorithm
Identify alternatives to your present approaches
u
Identify performance parameters
u
u what cannot be measured cannot be improved...
Calculate Limits
u
Draw an S Curve (history, limit and future) ..
u
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 19

20. Being Ahead ...
Sony introduced Walkman in 1979 ..
u
Other sharks got into the fray ...
u
Aiwa, Panasonic... etc....
u
Not for a breather ... but push harder ...
u
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 20

21. Sony Magic ... kaizen
Sony’s Response .... Continuos Improvement....
u
u Auto Reverse, Bass and treble, Smaller headphones
u shock/water resistance
u digital tuning
u Dolby ...
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 21

22. Even The Big Folly
Microsoft playing catch-up ....
u
u Internet technologies ....
IBM, Digital on Client/Server Technology
u
Reverse Engineering does not work..
u
If you want to be the first ...
u
Cannot wait for the final tally
u
The message is clear ....
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 22

23. History is full of it ...
the phonograph ..is not of any commercial value- Edison
u
Flight by machine heavier than air is impractical and insignificant, if
u
not utterly impossible .. Simon Newcomb 1902 (astronomer)
It is an idle dream .. that automobile will replace railways
u
u So claimed American Road Congress, 1913
And the list goes on and on .....
u
Changes about to happen are not telling ...
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 23

24. Phases of Transition ....
The established becomes less effective
u
The community loses trust ...
u
Turbulence grows
u
New “paradigm” is presented
u
Turbulence increases ...
u
All demand clear and better solutions
u
Some old problems go away
u
Acceptance gains momentum...
u
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 24

25. And Let Go!
Honey I donated all your size 30 to
u
Even if you are on the right track ..
u
We cannot afford to be complacent ....
u
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 25

26. Prepare for the future ...
Say, how do I get to XYZ?
Keep on going.. you will get
to the top of hill and then at the
bottom of the hill you will hit a
light ...
And 2 turns before the light make
a right ...
Find an opportunity in every difficulty
That is where we will be for the rest of our lives
u
Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 26