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Tracking the Internet
into the 21st Century

       Vint Cerf
        Google
     June 8, 2006
        NICBR
Internet - Global Statistics

22.5 Million Hosts                    395 Million Hosts
(Bellcore June 1997)                  (ISC Jan 2006)

50 Million Users                      1,022.8 Million Users
(NUA Jul 1997)
                                      (InternetWorldStats.com
                                         Mar 31, 2006)


(approx. 3.1 Billion Telephone Terminations including 2 B mobiles and
             822 Million PCs [Comp. Industries Assoc.] )
Internet Penetration Mar 2006

   Asia         - 364.3 M
   No. Amer. – 227.3M              No. AM

   Europe -         291.6 M        Europe
   Latin Am - 80.0 M               Asia
   Africa -         23.6 M
                                   Latin Am
   Mid-east - 18.2 M
   Oceania/AU-17.9 M               Africa

---------------------------        Mid East
   Total -         1,022.9 M       Oceania
   15.7% total penetration
  (Source www.internetstats.com)
% Internet Use (July 2005)
Malta (78.3%)                 South Korea (65.2%)
New Zealand (77.6%)           Canada (63.8%)
Iceland (76.5%)               United Kingdom (63.1%)
Sweden (75.2%)                Finland (62.6%)
Hong Kong (70.7%)             Bermuda (61.1%)
Denmark (69.5%)               Japan (60.9%)
United States (68.7%)         Taiwan (60.5%)
Singapore (68.3%)             Luxemburg (59.4%)
Norway (68.2%)                Portugal (58.2%)
Australia (68.2%)             Liechtenstein (57.3%)
Faroe Islands (67.8%)         Germany (57%)
Greenland (66.6%)             Austria (57%)
Netherlands (66.2)            Barbados (56.4%)
Switzerland (64.9%)           Ireland (51.2%)


              www.internetworldstats.com
Statistics-Brazil

Population 186M
GDP $1.49T             $8,011/capita
Mobiles – 81M          44% penetration
PCs – 19M              10.2%
Internet Users -27M    14.5%
Internet Hosts -3.5M   Users/host: 8
Internet expansion – in Belize
IT Centres - NIGERIA




Giandomenico Massari
The Growing Connection - FAO
The Power of IP
Layering of Protocols → evolution
End-to-End Principle → innovation
IP decouples application from transmission/transport
  IP does not care what transport is used (satellite, fiber,
  twisted pair, radio, ATM…)
  IP does not care what application it is carrying (video, audio,
  web, email…)
Embedding of all modalities under program control
via IP
Profound impact on regulatory models
Convergence is real

Disrupted business models
IP on Everything and now Everything on IP
Instant Messaging -> Presence
  21st Century “dial tone” – SIP, ENUM
  Programs, processes, people
  VOIP (no big deal but wrecks traditional telephony
  model)
  Text, voice, video, collaborative tools
Broadband Services

Cable, DSL – asymmetric
Broadband over Power Lines
Radio based (WiMax, Gigabeam,
Viasat, WiFi for local access)
Fiber to the Home (100-1000 Mb/s)
Mobility and Mobiles

2 Billion Mobiles and counting
Short Message Systems
Payment systems
Navigation systems
  GPS, Galileo, Google Earth/Maps,…
Geo-location based services
Digital Media

Digital Media Production Systems
  Real-time media production (full service)
  Storage and distribution (streaming, FTP)
  The “real” IPTV
  The Long Tail
Interactive Game Platform(s)
Information Archives
  Oceans of information (World Digital Library)
  Free, pay per view, subscription, sponsored
Google Book
  Search
Catedral Belo Horizonte
Congresso Nacional
Interlagos Race Track
Ipiranga museum, san paulo
Cristo Redentor
New Business Models

Online Advertising – targeted, relevant
Total 2005 “advertising” revenues in the
US = $420B (all media, promotions…)
Third party applications over standard
APIs (Google Earth/Maps example)
Domain name parking
Technology & Policy
Internationalized Domain Names
New Top Level Domains
Network Interconnection Regimes (peering, transit)
Wireless services (licensed/unlicensed)
Municipal Networking
WHOIS (privacy, IP protection)
Intellectual Property Protection
IPv6
Internet QOS issues (differential services)
Consumer Choice for Broadband/Neutrality (Note
UK, NL, NZ adoption of open, neutral policy)
Internet Governance

World Summit on the Information
Society
  Working Group on Internet Governance
  Multi-stakeholder model (e.g. ICANN)
  Internet Governance Forum
Infrastructure

Much more than PCs and Comm
Comm variations (cable, satellite, DSL,
fixed and mobile wireless)
Trained workforce, local entrepreneurial
opportunities, venture and seed capital
and/or microloans
Electrical power (solar, wind, nuclear,
fossil)
Internet-enabled Appliances
RFID

Toll-Road passive
transponder
Consumer product
identifier (like UPC)
Drug/Food shelf-life
and identification
Patient identification
Internet-enabled Devices
Programmable – Java, Python, etc.
Examples:
WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Mobiles,Video games,
Picture Frames, Washing Machines, Surf
Board!
Refrigerator (and the bathroom scales)
Automobiles (Japan, Germany)
Internet-enabled wine corks (also note new
quantum theory of wine: Schrödinger’s wine
bottle)
Internet-enabled socks
Universal Remote Control
InterPlaNetary Internet
2003-2004 Missions to Mars
Spirit
  launched 6/10/2003
  arrived Jan 4, 2004
  Gusev Crater in Gusev Plain
Opportunity
  Launched 7/7/2003
  arrived Jan 25, 2004
  Meridiani Planum
Interplanetary Internet:
      “InterPlaNet” (IPN)
Planetary internets
Interplanetary Gateways
Interplanetary Long-Haul Protocol
Delayed Binding of Identifiers
Email-like behavior
Delay and Disruption Tolerant Protocols
  Tactical Mobile applications (DARPA)
  Civilian Mobile applications (SameNet!)
TDRSS and NASA in-space routing
Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter

Launched August 2005
Survey for new landing sites
Potential relay node for networking
Joined other orbiters 10 March 2006
Aerobraking for months to achieve
circular orbit
•End-to-end information flow across the solar system
•Layered architecture for evolvability and
interoperability
•IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long
round trip light times
•Integrated communications and navigation services
Tracking the Internet into the 21st Century

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Tracking the Internet into the 21st Century

  • 1. Tracking the Internet into the 21st Century Vint Cerf Google June 8, 2006 NICBR
  • 2. Internet - Global Statistics 22.5 Million Hosts 395 Million Hosts (Bellcore June 1997) (ISC Jan 2006) 50 Million Users 1,022.8 Million Users (NUA Jul 1997) (InternetWorldStats.com Mar 31, 2006) (approx. 3.1 Billion Telephone Terminations including 2 B mobiles and 822 Million PCs [Comp. Industries Assoc.] )
  • 3. Internet Penetration Mar 2006 Asia - 364.3 M No. Amer. – 227.3M No. AM Europe - 291.6 M Europe Latin Am - 80.0 M Asia Africa - 23.6 M Latin Am Mid-east - 18.2 M Oceania/AU-17.9 M Africa --------------------------- Mid East Total - 1,022.9 M Oceania 15.7% total penetration (Source www.internetstats.com)
  • 4. % Internet Use (July 2005) Malta (78.3%) South Korea (65.2%) New Zealand (77.6%) Canada (63.8%) Iceland (76.5%) United Kingdom (63.1%) Sweden (75.2%) Finland (62.6%) Hong Kong (70.7%) Bermuda (61.1%) Denmark (69.5%) Japan (60.9%) United States (68.7%) Taiwan (60.5%) Singapore (68.3%) Luxemburg (59.4%) Norway (68.2%) Portugal (58.2%) Australia (68.2%) Liechtenstein (57.3%) Faroe Islands (67.8%) Germany (57%) Greenland (66.6%) Austria (57%) Netherlands (66.2) Barbados (56.4%) Switzerland (64.9%) Ireland (51.2%) www.internetworldstats.com
  • 5. Statistics-Brazil Population 186M GDP $1.49T $8,011/capita Mobiles – 81M 44% penetration PCs – 19M 10.2% Internet Users -27M 14.5% Internet Hosts -3.5M Users/host: 8
  • 7. IT Centres - NIGERIA Giandomenico Massari
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. The Power of IP Layering of Protocols → evolution End-to-End Principle → innovation IP decouples application from transmission/transport IP does not care what transport is used (satellite, fiber, twisted pair, radio, ATM…) IP does not care what application it is carrying (video, audio, web, email…) Embedding of all modalities under program control via IP Profound impact on regulatory models
  • 25. Convergence is real Disrupted business models IP on Everything and now Everything on IP Instant Messaging -> Presence 21st Century “dial tone” – SIP, ENUM Programs, processes, people VOIP (no big deal but wrecks traditional telephony model) Text, voice, video, collaborative tools
  • 26. Broadband Services Cable, DSL – asymmetric Broadband over Power Lines Radio based (WiMax, Gigabeam, Viasat, WiFi for local access) Fiber to the Home (100-1000 Mb/s)
  • 27. Mobility and Mobiles 2 Billion Mobiles and counting Short Message Systems Payment systems Navigation systems GPS, Galileo, Google Earth/Maps,… Geo-location based services
  • 28. Digital Media Digital Media Production Systems Real-time media production (full service) Storage and distribution (streaming, FTP) The “real” IPTV The Long Tail Interactive Game Platform(s) Information Archives Oceans of information (World Digital Library) Free, pay per view, subscription, sponsored
  • 29. Google Book Search
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 40. New Business Models Online Advertising – targeted, relevant Total 2005 “advertising” revenues in the US = $420B (all media, promotions…) Third party applications over standard APIs (Google Earth/Maps example) Domain name parking
  • 41. Technology & Policy Internationalized Domain Names New Top Level Domains Network Interconnection Regimes (peering, transit) Wireless services (licensed/unlicensed) Municipal Networking WHOIS (privacy, IP protection) Intellectual Property Protection IPv6 Internet QOS issues (differential services) Consumer Choice for Broadband/Neutrality (Note UK, NL, NZ adoption of open, neutral policy)
  • 42. Internet Governance World Summit on the Information Society Working Group on Internet Governance Multi-stakeholder model (e.g. ICANN) Internet Governance Forum
  • 43. Infrastructure Much more than PCs and Comm Comm variations (cable, satellite, DSL, fixed and mobile wireless) Trained workforce, local entrepreneurial opportunities, venture and seed capital and/or microloans Electrical power (solar, wind, nuclear, fossil)
  • 45. RFID Toll-Road passive transponder Consumer product identifier (like UPC) Drug/Food shelf-life and identification Patient identification
  • 46. Internet-enabled Devices Programmable – Java, Python, etc. Examples: WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Mobiles,Video games, Picture Frames, Washing Machines, Surf Board! Refrigerator (and the bathroom scales) Automobiles (Japan, Germany) Internet-enabled wine corks (also note new quantum theory of wine: Schrödinger’s wine bottle) Internet-enabled socks Universal Remote Control
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53. 2003-2004 Missions to Mars Spirit launched 6/10/2003 arrived Jan 4, 2004 Gusev Crater in Gusev Plain Opportunity Launched 7/7/2003 arrived Jan 25, 2004 Meridiani Planum
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56.
  • 57.
  • 58. Interplanetary Internet: “InterPlaNet” (IPN) Planetary internets Interplanetary Gateways Interplanetary Long-Haul Protocol Delayed Binding of Identifiers Email-like behavior Delay and Disruption Tolerant Protocols Tactical Mobile applications (DARPA) Civilian Mobile applications (SameNet!) TDRSS and NASA in-space routing
  • 59. Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Launched August 2005 Survey for new landing sites Potential relay node for networking Joined other orbiters 10 March 2006 Aerobraking for months to achieve circular orbit
  • 60. •End-to-end information flow across the solar system •Layered architecture for evolvability and interoperability •IP-like protocol suite tailored to operate over long round trip light times •Integrated communications and navigation services