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The   rise   of   green   mobile          telecom
towers


                            January 2013
                            www .t hi s i sxy .c o m
X&Y Partners
               The rise of green mobile telecom towers




Contacts:
Romeu Gaspar
romeu.gaspar@thisisxy.com
UK: +44 (20) 3239 5245 | PT: +351 210 961 834
Skype: xypartners



                                                    2
X&Y Partners
                                                           The rise of green mobile telecom towers



The rise of green mobile telecom towers

Recent           developm ents                in      powered by renewable energy.
renew able             energies         m ight
                                                      Global mobile telephony subscriptions
overthrow the diesel generator
                                                      will continue to grow over the next 5
as the technology of choice for
                                                      years        (Exhibit      1).        Increased
off-grid m obile base stations.
                                                      subscriptions and traffic will drive

Renewable         energy       has      evolved       demand for additional base stations,

considerably over the last couple of                  particularly      in    emergent       regions:

years. So much, in fact, that solutions               Analysys                 Mason,               a

recently deemed to be unfeasible                      telecommunications          research       firm,

might now warrant a second look.                      predicts that 3 out of 4 base stations

Take mobile telecom operators, for                    will be deployed in emergent markets.

instance: diesel generators are usually               A non-negligible part of these base

preferred       over     renewable      energy        stations will need to be deployed in

based solutions for remote off-grid                   remote regions with no access to the

base      stations,     because       they    are     electrical     grid.    Diesel   or    propane

cheaper and more reliable. In this                    generators are often used to power

article    we     explore      three     recent       these off-grid telecom towers (Exhibit

developments           that   might    tilt   the     2), despite the high operation &

balance in favor of telecom towers                    maintenance costs. These generators




  Exhibit 1 – 2008-2017 mobile telecom subscriptions, by region.


                                                                                                    3
X&Y Partners
                                                            The rise of green mobile telecom towers




  Exhibit 2 – Example of a base station powered by a diesel generator (left), and one integrating
  solar PV (right)

are      sometimes        combined          with       longer the case: PV module spot
renewable energy (typically solar PV,                  prices have fallen 65% since 2001 and
wind, or both) but 100% renewable                      73% since 2007 (Exhibit 3), putting PV
energy systems are rare, since the                     closer to wind energy, one of the
lower operation & maintenance costs                    cheapest       sources      of    renewable
are usually not enough to offset the                   energy. This decrease is mainly the
higher capital costs and the risk of                   result of lower producing costs and
intermittence due to the lack of solar or              manufacturing overcapacity. In the
wind      resources.          Three       recent       short-term prices are expected to
developments          might     change      this,      stabilize or even increase slightly, as
particularly    for     solar       PV    based        supply and demand rebalance. In the
solutions deployed in the sunbelt                      longer-term however, prices should
countries:     lower    PV      prices,    more        continue     to   decrease,      fuelled     by
robust    off-grid     technology,        and   a      technological      advances      and     more
broader availability of ESCOs (Energy                  efficient manufacturing processes (a
Service Companies).                                    topic we discuss in detail here).

Decreasing solar PV prices

Solar    photovoltaic         has   historically
been one of the most capital-intensive
forms of renewable energy. That is no


                                                                                                    4
X&Y Partners
                                                           The rise of green mobile telecom towers




   Exhibit 3 – 2001-2012 PV module spot prices



More robust off-grid technology                       is not the case with off-grid base
Most of the existing PV and wind                      stations, hindering the use of standard
installations are grid-connected. That                standalone PV and wind solutions.
means that cloudy or windless days                    Industries such as mining and military
are not an issue, since the electrical                faced a similar challenge, and have
grid will act as a backup system. That                been pushing the development of




  Exhibit 4 – 2012-2018 market value for micro-grids, by region




                                                                                                5
X&Y Partners
                                                           The rise of green mobile telecom towers




  Exhibit 5 – 2012-2021 market value storage for systems, by technology


more robust off-grid technologies. One               Broader availability of ESCOs
of these developments is the micro-
                                                     Even with improved economics and
grid, a combination of hardware and
                                                     reliability,    deploying          green      base
software that allows for the integration
                                                     stations       might       not    be    a    sound
and optimized management of multiple
                                                     investment           for         many       telecom
energy sources, both conventional and
                                                     operators, as it veers off their core
renewable (not unlike a mobile phone
                                                     business. ESCOs, or Energy Service
managing Wi-Fi and 3G networks to
                                                     Companies, are arguably a better
ensure a continuous data stream).
                                                     alternative: these companies will pay
Market value for these micro-grids is
                                                     for    and       install         the    necessary
expected to grow 25% per year from
                                                     equipment, and sell the generated
2012 to 2018 (Exhibit 4).
                                                     power to the telecom operator. The
Advanced       storage        systems     are        electricity price is set via a PPA
another       relevant         development,          (Power Purchase Agreement) and will
allowing for a more efficient and cost-              depend on the characteristics of the
effective    storage     of    energy.    The        base station, duration of the contract
market for these systems is expected                 and risk-sharing model. ESCO models
to grow 25% per year from 2012 to                    have become widespread in energy
2021      (Exhibit     5),    following    an        efficiency contracts for buildings, and
increasing     demand         from   multiple        are now available for a wide range of
industries and applications.                         applications. In the US alone, ESCO


                                                                                                      6
X&Y Partners
                                                          The rise of green mobile telecom towers




   Exhibit 6 – 2010-2020 US market value for ESCO services, by application


services are expected to grow into a                 overthrow the diesel generator as the
16B$ business by 2020 (Exhibit 6).                   technology of choice for off-grid mobile
                                                     base stations.
In conclusion, lower PV prices, more
robust   off-grid   technology      and    a
broader availability of ESCOs might




                                                                                               7
The rise of green mobile telecom towers

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The rise of green mobile telecom towers

  • 1. The rise of green mobile telecom towers January 2013 www .t hi s i sxy .c o m
  • 2. X&Y Partners The rise of green mobile telecom towers Contacts: Romeu Gaspar romeu.gaspar@thisisxy.com UK: +44 (20) 3239 5245 | PT: +351 210 961 834 Skype: xypartners 2
  • 3. X&Y Partners The rise of green mobile telecom towers The rise of green mobile telecom towers Recent developm ents in powered by renewable energy. renew able energies m ight Global mobile telephony subscriptions overthrow the diesel generator will continue to grow over the next 5 as the technology of choice for years (Exhibit 1). Increased off-grid m obile base stations. subscriptions and traffic will drive Renewable energy has evolved demand for additional base stations, considerably over the last couple of particularly in emergent regions: years. So much, in fact, that solutions Analysys Mason, a recently deemed to be unfeasible telecommunications research firm, might now warrant a second look. predicts that 3 out of 4 base stations Take mobile telecom operators, for will be deployed in emergent markets. instance: diesel generators are usually A non-negligible part of these base preferred over renewable energy stations will need to be deployed in based solutions for remote off-grid remote regions with no access to the base stations, because they are electrical grid. Diesel or propane cheaper and more reliable. In this generators are often used to power article we explore three recent these off-grid telecom towers (Exhibit developments that might tilt the 2), despite the high operation & balance in favor of telecom towers maintenance costs. These generators Exhibit 1 – 2008-2017 mobile telecom subscriptions, by region. 3
  • 4. X&Y Partners The rise of green mobile telecom towers Exhibit 2 – Example of a base station powered by a diesel generator (left), and one integrating solar PV (right) are sometimes combined with longer the case: PV module spot renewable energy (typically solar PV, prices have fallen 65% since 2001 and wind, or both) but 100% renewable 73% since 2007 (Exhibit 3), putting PV energy systems are rare, since the closer to wind energy, one of the lower operation & maintenance costs cheapest sources of renewable are usually not enough to offset the energy. This decrease is mainly the higher capital costs and the risk of result of lower producing costs and intermittence due to the lack of solar or manufacturing overcapacity. In the wind resources. Three recent short-term prices are expected to developments might change this, stabilize or even increase slightly, as particularly for solar PV based supply and demand rebalance. In the solutions deployed in the sunbelt longer-term however, prices should countries: lower PV prices, more continue to decrease, fuelled by robust off-grid technology, and a technological advances and more broader availability of ESCOs (Energy efficient manufacturing processes (a Service Companies). topic we discuss in detail here). Decreasing solar PV prices Solar photovoltaic has historically been one of the most capital-intensive forms of renewable energy. That is no 4
  • 5. X&Y Partners The rise of green mobile telecom towers Exhibit 3 – 2001-2012 PV module spot prices More robust off-grid technology is not the case with off-grid base Most of the existing PV and wind stations, hindering the use of standard installations are grid-connected. That standalone PV and wind solutions. means that cloudy or windless days Industries such as mining and military are not an issue, since the electrical faced a similar challenge, and have grid will act as a backup system. That been pushing the development of Exhibit 4 – 2012-2018 market value for micro-grids, by region 5
  • 6. X&Y Partners The rise of green mobile telecom towers Exhibit 5 – 2012-2021 market value storage for systems, by technology more robust off-grid technologies. One Broader availability of ESCOs of these developments is the micro- Even with improved economics and grid, a combination of hardware and reliability, deploying green base software that allows for the integration stations might not be a sound and optimized management of multiple investment for many telecom energy sources, both conventional and operators, as it veers off their core renewable (not unlike a mobile phone business. ESCOs, or Energy Service managing Wi-Fi and 3G networks to Companies, are arguably a better ensure a continuous data stream). alternative: these companies will pay Market value for these micro-grids is for and install the necessary expected to grow 25% per year from equipment, and sell the generated 2012 to 2018 (Exhibit 4). power to the telecom operator. The Advanced storage systems are electricity price is set via a PPA another relevant development, (Power Purchase Agreement) and will allowing for a more efficient and cost- depend on the characteristics of the effective storage of energy. The base station, duration of the contract market for these systems is expected and risk-sharing model. ESCO models to grow 25% per year from 2012 to have become widespread in energy 2021 (Exhibit 5), following an efficiency contracts for buildings, and increasing demand from multiple are now available for a wide range of industries and applications. applications. In the US alone, ESCO 6
  • 7. X&Y Partners The rise of green mobile telecom towers Exhibit 6 – 2010-2020 US market value for ESCO services, by application services are expected to grow into a overthrow the diesel generator as the 16B$ business by 2020 (Exhibit 6). technology of choice for off-grid mobile base stations. In conclusion, lower PV prices, more robust off-grid technology and a broader availability of ESCOs might 7