2. Change in Texas Leading Index
Net Contributions of Components
3-month change: August - September - October
Net Change in Texas Leading Index 0.84
Texas Value of the Dollar 0.62
U.S. Leading Index 0.52
Real Oil Price 0.41
Well Permits 0.02
New Unemployment Claims 0.1
Texas Stock Index 0.13
Help Wanted Index -1.04
Average Weekly Hours 0.09
-2 -1 0 1 2
Percent
Source: FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org
3. Texas Total Nonfarm Employment
Quarterly Growth
1-quarter % change,
SAAR Texas (Q3=-2.69)
6 U.S. (Q3=-1.8)
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Source: BLS/TWC, seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org
4. Texas Total Nonfarm Employment
Monthly Growth
1-month % change,
SAAR Texas (Nov=0.54)
8 U.S. (Nov=-0.1)
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: BLS/TWC, seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org
5. Texas Industry Employment
NAICS Super Sectors
Monthly Growth. SA by FRB Dallas
December 2008 - November 2009
1-month % change, Natural Resources & Mining (Nov=15.77) Construction (Nov=-7.05)
SAAR Trade, Transp & Utilities (Nov=-3.2) Manufacturing (Nov=-7.06)
Professional & Business Svc (Nov=0.1) Financial Activities (Nov=5.1)
30 Leisure & Hospitality (Nov=4.82) Information (Nov=-13.82)
Educational & Health Services (Nov=4.68) Government (Nov=2.38)
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
Source: BLS/TWC, seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org
6. Texas High Tech Manufacturing Employment
(Change in Employment)
Thousands, SA
Change in Employment (Nov=0.2)
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: BLS/TWC, seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org
8. Texas High Tech Services Employment
Index,
Jan 1990=100 Telecommunications (Nov=129.7)
ISPs, search portals, and data processing * (Nov=97.7)
600
Computer system design and related services (Nov=521.8)
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
* The January 2007 drop in ISPs, search portals, and data processing is due to changes in NAICS codes.
Source: BLS/TWC, seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org
9. Texas Major Metro Area Employment
Index,
Jan2001=100
Texas (Nov=109) Austin (Nov=115.3)
120
Dallas (Nov=103.5) El Paso (Nov=106.2)
118
Ft. Worth (Nov=108.5) Houston (Nov=110)
116 San Antonio (Nov=112)
114
112
110
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: BLS/TWC, seasonal and other adjustments by FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org
15. Texas Major Metro Area Unemployment Rates
Percent, SA Austin (Nov=7.1)
Dallas (Nov=8.2)
9 Houston (Nov=8.4)
San Antonio (Nov=6.9)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: BLS, seasonal adjustment by FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org
16. Energy Prices and Texas Rig Count
Rig count, Nominal price, $
weekly TX rig count (Dec=478) weekly
Oil price (Jan=79.14)
1200 Natural gas price (Jan=58.74) Oil price 160
TX rig count 140
1000
120
800
100
600 80
60
400
40
200 Natural gas price* 20
0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
* Natural gas price is multiplied by 10
Source: Wall Street Journal, Henry Hub, Baker Hughes http://www.dallasfed.org
17. Real Texas Construction Contract Values
Index Jan 1990=100
SA, 5MMA
500
450 Residential (Nov=197)
Nonresidential (Nov=111)
400
Nonbuilding (Nov=205)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: McGraw-Hill Construction F.W. Dodge http://www.dallasfed.org
18. Texas Residential Permits and Mortgage Rate
30-yr mortgage rate (Jan 04=5)
Mortgage rate, Singe family permits (Nov=5848) Number of permits
percent SA, 5MMA
Multifamily permits (Nov=942)
12 16,000
Single family permits 14,000
10
12,000
8
10,000
6 30-yr mortgage rate 8,000
6,000
4
4,000
2
2,000
Multifamily permits
0 0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org
19. Texas Exports by Region
2009:Q3
Index, 97Q1=100
Real $, SA Texas Total Mexico
Canada European Union (27)
650 Asia** Latin America*
600 China
12%
550 4% other
500 19% 8%
450
400 13% Mexico
350 35%
300 9%
250
200
150
100
50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
* Latin America excluding Mexico; ** Asia excluding China
Source: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research, FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org
20. Texas Exports by Industry
2009:Q3
Index, 97Q1=100
Real $, SA TX total Chemicals
Computers & Electronics Petroleum and Coal Products
1100 Machinery Agriculture and Food
Transportation Equipment
1000
900 5%
9%
16%
800
700
10% 22%
600 other
500
21%
400 17%
300
200
100
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research, FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org