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DEEP FINANCE the role played by financial markets in the current crisis and its resolution Enrico S. Cruz 19 March 2009  The views expressed in this summary reflect the perusal views of the undersigned.  Opinions as stated are unsubstantiated by detailed empirical study.
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  “  Values have shrunken to fantastic levels; […] government of all kinds is faced by serious curtailment of income; […] the withered leaves of industrial enterprise lie on every side; […] the savings of many years in thousands of families are gone.  More important, a host of unemployed citizens face the grim problem of existence and an equally great number toil with little return.” - Excerpts from Franklin D. Roosevelt’s inaugural speech in 1933
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  Outline of the Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  History of the Crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3 1 Feb 2007 Jun 2007 Aug 2007 Oct 2007 Dec 2007 HSBC announces that it will boost loan losses provisions on bad mortgages Bear Stearns hedge funds announce significant losses on mortgage bets Fed and ECB start responding to liquidity problems BNP Paribas freezes money market fund Banks move SIVs onto balance sheet and start announcing significant losses Fed introduces TAF to deal with fears about year-end funding pressures
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  History of the Crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],4 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],5 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],6 Mar 2008 Jul 2008 Bear Stearns collapses GSEs plunge on capital concerns; IndyMac seized by regulators Sep 2008 GSEs taken over by US Govt. ML taken over by BoA Lehman files for Bankruptcy. GS and MS became CBs regulated by Fed; AIG bailed out by Fed HBOS taken over by Lloyds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],7 Oct 2008 Washington Mutual, inc. seized by FDIC and assets sold to JPM The House passes the $US 700bn revised rescue plan  Fed floods the financial market with dollars to reduce MM rates Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, HBOS Plc, and Lloyds TSB Group  Plc get a 37 billion-pound bailout from UK Gov’t Nov 2008 Citibank bailed out by US Gov’t Dec 2008 The Fed announced a 75bp rate cut to 0.25%with a target rate of 0% to 0.25%  Pres. Bush unveils rescue plan for GM and Chrysler; S&P downgraded 12 major U.S. and European Banks Icelandic banking system collapsed; IMF approved a $2.1 billion financial support Feb 2009 UK Gov’t increased its stake in RBS to 70% Eastern European financial crisis arises Canadian Parliament approved $50billion economic stimulus plan
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  The Traditional Mortgage Model Qualified  Borrower Bank Depositors USD Title USD Certificates of Deposit USD PN / Title Developer Probable Causes: Mortgage Crisis
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  The New Mortgage Model Qualified  Borrower Bank Depositors USD Title USD Certificates of Deposit SPV / CDO Investors Assets USD USD USD PN / Title USD PN / Title Wall Street Developer Probable Causes: Mortgage Crisis Subprime
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  Probable Causes: Mortgage Crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],GREED ?
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  Probable Causes: Credit Crisis Prepared by: Jeffrey Frankel, James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Information and Growth at Harvard Kennedy School Housing  crash Financial  crisis 2007 -08 Recession 2008 -09 Eventual loss of US Global hegemony Stock market crash Oil Price Spike 2007-08 Failures of Corporate  governance Underestimated  risk  in  financial markets Excessive leverage in Financial institutions Stock market bubble
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  Crisis Cycle Summary Subprime Crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],Mortgage Crisis Credit Crisis Financial System Crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],job cuts?
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  Products in the News: Synthetic CDO BBB  AAA  Equity  BBB  AAA  Equity  BBB  AAA  Equity  BBB  AAA  Equity  Proceeds Proceeds Collateral SPV AAA /  BBB  Floating Rate Notes Initial Cash Flows Outstanding Collateral Amount Outstanding Collateral Amount Collateral SPV Final Cash Flows Libor Floating Rate Notes Coupon Protection Credit Spread Floating Rate Notes Coupon Libor & Credit Spread Collateral Default Swap Counterparty Asset Swap Counterparty   Reference Portfolio   AAA / BBB Ongoing Cash Flows
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  Products in the News: Leverage Notes Bank Investor ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Principle of Leverage Notes from an Investor’s Perspective US$100 US$400 ROP 32 If MTM of the bond is NEGATIVE: Bank Investor US$300 cash to top up US$400 ROP 32
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  Products in the News: Minibond Singapore (19 September 2008)  - “Should Minibond Series 3 have taken the retail route?”  Up to $200Mio of these notes were sold to a gullible retail public who probably thought they were buying five year bond issued by 6 leading banks that paid a 5% coupon per year but where in reality, not only exposed to the US housing market but also to complex credit default swap arrangement where substantiative party was the now bankrupt Lehman Brothers”
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  Products in the News: Minibond The Probable Structure: First to default (FTD) Note Linked to 6 Banks Retail Investors USD Minibond Ltd (LB SPV) Market 5%  USD Note Libor + Premium Sell protection  on 6 Banks (FTD) USD (collateral) Bonds/CDO USD
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  Products in the News: Equity Accumulator Bank Investor Bank sells at discount Bank sells 2x at discount vs. spot If price > spot If price < spot ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Principle of Accumulator of Shares from an Investor’s Perspective USD USD Note or Shares
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  Products in the News: Leveraged Finance Banks Investors Private Equity Company Shareholders Target Company (TC) Loans USD USD Loans secured by TC shares USD Shares of TC Shares ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  Products in the News: Commodity Hedges Fuel Hedge 12 March 2009 “ Cathay Pacific Posts $1.1 billion Loss for ‘08”  “ Common hedging methods lock in fuel prices,  protecting airlines when prices rise .  But when prices fall, the difference is often accounted for as a loss” “ Australia’s Quantas Airways Ltd. used a relatively  expensive hedging technique that involved options , Chief Executive Alan Joyce has said.  But Quantas could walk away from its options as fuel prices dropped, unlike the less expensive hedges, which lock in prices.  It now  largely benefits from falling prices , he said.”
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  Products in the News: Commodity Hedges Probable Hedge: Jet Fuel Swaps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Bank Oil User Physical Oil Delivery Floating Oil Price Fixed Price Floating Fuel Price Principle of Hedging from a Consumer’s perspective Cashflow Diagram: Swap PHYSICAL CONTRACT HEDGE CONTRACT International Oil Market
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  What to Expect Greenspan  (AWJ) Opinions 12 March 2009 “ It is now very clear that the level of complexity to which market practitioners at the height of their euphoria tend to push risk management techniques and products were too much for even the most sophisticated market players to handle properly and prudently.”  “ Adequate capital and collateral requirements.” “ A regulatory regime that will ensure responsible risk management on the part of financial institutions ,while encouraging them to continue taking the risks…” Bernanke FT 10 March 2009 “ Overhaul of financial structure infrastructure and new reforms would require global consideration.”  “ Creation of an authority that would monitor systemic risks”
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  What to Expect Buffett 2008 Letter to  Shareholders “ Derivatives are dangerous. They have dramatically increased the leverage and risks in our financial system. They have made it almost impossible for investors to understand and analyze our largest commercial banks and investment banks.” “ They allowed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to engage in massive misstatements of earnings for years”  “ Though historical volatility is a useful ---but far from foolproof ---concept in valuing short-term options, its utility diminishes rapidly as the duration of the option lengthens. In my opinion, the valuations that the Black Scholes formula now placed on our long term put options overstate our liability, though the overstatement will diminish as the contracts approach maturity.”
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  What to Expect Josef Ackerman Speech for the  Centre on Capitalism  and Society  Columbia University 20 February 2009 “ A New Era: How the Crisis will reshape  Politics, Societies and Finance”   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  What to Expect Josef Ackerman Speech for the  Centre on Capitalism  and Society  Columbia University 20 February 2009 “ A New Era: How the Crisis will reshape  Politics, Societies and Finance”   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page  What to Expect The role of the academe?

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Uppres

  • 1. DEEP FINANCE the role played by financial markets in the current crisis and its resolution Enrico S. Cruz 19 March 2009 The views expressed in this summary reflect the perusal views of the undersigned. Opinions as stated are unsubstantiated by detailed empirical study.
  • 2. Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page “ Values have shrunken to fantastic levels; […] government of all kinds is faced by serious curtailment of income; […] the withered leaves of industrial enterprise lie on every side; […] the savings of many years in thousands of families are gone. More important, a host of unemployed citizens face the grim problem of existence and an equally great number toil with little return.” - Excerpts from Franklin D. Roosevelt’s inaugural speech in 1933
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  • 6. Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page The Traditional Mortgage Model Qualified Borrower Bank Depositors USD Title USD Certificates of Deposit USD PN / Title Developer Probable Causes: Mortgage Crisis
  • 7. Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page The New Mortgage Model Qualified Borrower Bank Depositors USD Title USD Certificates of Deposit SPV / CDO Investors Assets USD USD USD PN / Title USD PN / Title Wall Street Developer Probable Causes: Mortgage Crisis Subprime
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  • 9. Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page Probable Causes: Credit Crisis Prepared by: Jeffrey Frankel, James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Information and Growth at Harvard Kennedy School Housing crash Financial crisis 2007 -08 Recession 2008 -09 Eventual loss of US Global hegemony Stock market crash Oil Price Spike 2007-08 Failures of Corporate governance Underestimated risk in financial markets Excessive leverage in Financial institutions Stock market bubble
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  • 11. Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page Products in the News: Synthetic CDO BBB AAA Equity BBB AAA Equity BBB AAA Equity BBB AAA Equity Proceeds Proceeds Collateral SPV AAA / BBB Floating Rate Notes Initial Cash Flows Outstanding Collateral Amount Outstanding Collateral Amount Collateral SPV Final Cash Flows Libor Floating Rate Notes Coupon Protection Credit Spread Floating Rate Notes Coupon Libor & Credit Spread Collateral Default Swap Counterparty Asset Swap Counterparty Reference Portfolio AAA / BBB Ongoing Cash Flows
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  • 13. Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page Products in the News: Minibond Singapore (19 September 2008) - “Should Minibond Series 3 have taken the retail route?” Up to $200Mio of these notes were sold to a gullible retail public who probably thought they were buying five year bond issued by 6 leading banks that paid a 5% coupon per year but where in reality, not only exposed to the US housing market but also to complex credit default swap arrangement where substantiative party was the now bankrupt Lehman Brothers”
  • 14. Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page Products in the News: Minibond The Probable Structure: First to default (FTD) Note Linked to 6 Banks Retail Investors USD Minibond Ltd (LB SPV) Market 5% USD Note Libor + Premium Sell protection on 6 Banks (FTD) USD (collateral) Bonds/CDO USD
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  • 17. Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page Products in the News: Commodity Hedges Fuel Hedge 12 March 2009 “ Cathay Pacific Posts $1.1 billion Loss for ‘08” “ Common hedging methods lock in fuel prices, protecting airlines when prices rise . But when prices fall, the difference is often accounted for as a loss” “ Australia’s Quantas Airways Ltd. used a relatively expensive hedging technique that involved options , Chief Executive Alan Joyce has said. But Quantas could walk away from its options as fuel prices dropped, unlike the less expensive hedges, which lock in prices. It now largely benefits from falling prices , he said.”
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  • 19. Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page What to Expect Greenspan (AWJ) Opinions 12 March 2009 “ It is now very clear that the level of complexity to which market practitioners at the height of their euphoria tend to push risk management techniques and products were too much for even the most sophisticated market players to handle properly and prudently.” “ Adequate capital and collateral requirements.” “ A regulatory regime that will ensure responsible risk management on the part of financial institutions ,while encouraging them to continue taking the risks…” Bernanke FT 10 March 2009 “ Overhaul of financial structure infrastructure and new reforms would require global consideration.” “ Creation of an authority that would monitor systemic risks”
  • 20. Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page What to Expect Buffett 2008 Letter to Shareholders “ Derivatives are dangerous. They have dramatically increased the leverage and risks in our financial system. They have made it almost impossible for investors to understand and analyze our largest commercial banks and investment banks.” “ They allowed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to engage in massive misstatements of earnings for years” “ Though historical volatility is a useful ---but far from foolproof ---concept in valuing short-term options, its utility diminishes rapidly as the duration of the option lengthens. In my opinion, the valuations that the Black Scholes formula now placed on our long term put options overstate our liability, though the overstatement will diminish as the contracts approach maturity.”
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  • 23. Enrico S. Cruz – 19 March 2009 page What to Expect The role of the academe?