การบรรยายพิเศษเรื่อง.... ภาวะเศรษฐกิจไทยปัจจุบันและแนวโน้มในอนาคต บรรยายโดย...รศ. ดร. ถวิล นิลใบ คณะเศรษฐศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยรามคำแหง ณ วิทยาลัยการทัพบก กรุงเทพฯ ใน 25 ธ.ค.55 เวลา 0800 - 1200 น.

1. www.eco.ru.ac.th

2. 1.
2.

3. 15
(2540 – 2555)
1.
2.

4. 12
:

5. -5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
2500
2503
2506
2509
2512
2515
2518
2521
2524
2527
2530
2533
2540 -2555
2536
2539
2542
crisis
Dotcom
2545
2548
crisis
2551
2554
Subprime
+

6. -15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2500
2503
2506
2509
2512
2515
2518
2521
2524
2527
2530
2533
2536
2539
2542
2545
2500 - 2554
2548
2551
2554

8. YINGLUCKNOMICS
( 2554 –
THAKSINOMICS V2

9. Thaksinomics: 2544-2549
Dual - Track Policy
Social Capitalism

10. 10
Socialist
4 3
5
Capitalism Social capitalism
1 2
0 5 10

11. Political Auction
(10
+ 30%
15,000/ 20,000
(20 300
25% 2
15,000
(7
500 600 - 1000

12. source: the Economist : www.economist.com

13. 2539 2555
41,000 3,579,273
129,000 50,079
170,000 3,629,352
www.mof.go.th

14. 1.
2.
3.

15. /
2530
193,525.00 223,746.00
2531
245,030.00 220,694.00
2532
309,536.00 269,351.00
2533
394,509.00 312,320.00
2534
464,900.00 362,464.00
2535
499,004.00 448,322.00
2536
557,783.00 529,619.00

16. 2540 - 2543
/
2540
/ 844,24 906,64
9.00 1.00
2541
982,00 800,00
0.00 0.00
2542
730,42 825,50
0.00 0.00
2543

17. 2544 - 2549
/
2544 805,000.00 910,000.00
1,023,000.
2545 823,000.00 00
2546 825,000.00 999,900.00
1,028,000.
2547 928,100.00 00
1,250,000. 1,250,000.
2548 00 00
2549

21. tax earmarking

24. Tax/GDP
Denmark 1990-1997 49.8
Norway 1990-1997 34.5
Finland 1990-1997 35.4
Sweden 1990-1997 51.2
Austria 1995-1999 37.5
France 1990-1997 45.2
Greece 1992-1999 36.9
Italy 1990-1997 44.2
United Kingdom 1990-1997 32.9
World 1990-1997 18.1

25. GDP /GD
P (%)
2530 183,014 1,253,147 14.6
2535 449,316 2,827,158 15.9
2540 802,947 4,732,610 17.0
2545 851,062 5,450,643 15.6
2546 986,142 5,917,369 16.7
2547 1,154,132 6,489,476 17.8
2548 1,326,948 7,095,619 18.7
2549 1,427,528 7,830,329 18.2
2550 1,497,050 8,485,200 17.6

26. ASEAN
2005 2006 2007
18.7 18.2 17.6 18.1
20.9 22.2 22.4 21.8
28.0 26.8 24.9 26.6
20.3 21.5 21.8 21.2
17.8 19.0 17.9 18.2
15.0 16.2 17.1 16.1

27. •09 2555 12:15 . |
3
52 Earth Institute
World Happiness Report
( )
3
( 26) ( 29)
52 3
( 51)
( )

28. 10
1.
49.8
2. 35.4
3. 34.5
4.
5.
6.
7. 51.2
8.
9.
10.

29. 1.
USA, EU, Japan
2.
3. AEC
4.

30. Subprime
2543 2544 2550 2551
Dotcom 911
Crisis Bear Stearns
Lehman Brother
Fannei Mae Freddie Mac
AIG

31. 2544
2,884,703.9 100.0
1 584,497.0 20.3
2 439,830.2 15.2
3 233,070.9 8.1
4 146,392.2 5.1
5 127,205.2 4.4
6 120,983.4 4.2
7 103,414.0 3.6
8 89,963.5 3.1
9 85,130.2 3.0
10 69,571.8 2.4

32. 2553
2553/2010 % SHARE
6,176,302.1 100.0
1 678,631.8 11.0
2 645,210.2 10.4
3 638,820.1 10.3
4 413,785.0 6.7
5 334,598.8 5.4
6 297,098.7 4.8
7 285,187.1 4.6
8 232,856.2 3.8
9 184,463.1 3.0
10 154,914.9 2.5

33. 10
2543 -2553
2543 2545 2547 2549 2551 2553
1. 4.07 5.22 7.37 9.04 9.11 10.99
2. 14.70 14.60 13.98 12.63 11.30 10.45
3.
21.36 19.82 16.06 14.99 11.40 10.34
4. 5.05 5.41 5.12 5.52 5.65 6.72
5. 4.07 4.16 5.50 5.10 5.57 5.41
6. 2.35 2.41 2.56 3.35 4.49 4.80
7. 8.71 8.15 7.28 6.44 5.69 4.61 19.27
8. 1.95 2.47 3.33 2.55 3.56 3.76
9. 1.22 1.39 1.94 2.37 2.82 2.99
10. 1.57 1.87 1.90 1.98 1.98 2.50
10
65.05 65.50 65.04 63.97 71.22 72.53
34.95 34.50 34.96 36.03 28.78 27.47

34. Gross World Product 2007
54,584,918 million USD
Rank Country GDP (milli USD) %
1 USA 13,807,550 25.30
2 Japan 4,381,576 8.03
3 China 3,715,510 6.80
4 Germany 3,320,997 6.08
5 UK 2,804,437 5.14

35. Rank Country GDP (milli USD) %
6 France 2,593,779 4.75
7 Italy 2,104,666 3.86
8 Spain 1,439,983 2.64
9 Canada 1,436,086 2.63
10 Brazil 1,313,590 2.40
34 Thailand 245,351
IMF

36. 1970 - 2007
( GDP (%
)
124 2.6 6.2
208 2.1 5.9
63 - -
42 3.8 18.6
10
Source: Laeven and Valencia (2008) 2.5 8.3

37. 28

38. 30 2553
-
348 79
10%

39. 400
350
300 Accord Plaza
250
200
150
100
50
0

40. 2528 10,000 $ 250 Y/$ 2,500,000 Y
2530 10,000 $ 150 Y/$ 1,500,000 Y
16,666
13,333

42. 1.
2. A

44. undervalue
100 $ 9.00 / 1$ 900
Depreciate
100 $ 8.28 / 1$ 828
100 $ 8.11 / 1$ 811
Appreciate
100 $ 7.00 / 1$ 700

45. 28

46. 117
4,000
4 12,000
40%

47. 24

48. ASEAN COMMUNITY 2015
2558

49. GDP
237,556,353 706,558 3,039
5,076,700 222,699 43,324
27,565,821 237,804 8,519
94,013,200 199,589 2,132
67,041,000 318,847 4,679
87,375,000 103,572 1,172
399,000 10,732 31,239
47,963,000 35,646 702
6,230,200 7,491 1,164
13,395,682 11,343 802

50. One Vision, One identity, One Community

51. 1.
2.
3.
4.

52. :
AEC

53. FTA Custom Common Economic
Union Market Union
1. 0%
2.
3.
4.

54. CLMV : 100% 0 %**
ASEAN 6: 100% 0 %** 54,467
(99.65%)
ASEAN 6: 80% 0%
2535 2550 2553 2558
** :

55. -
%)
- -
(
:

56. :
254 2551 2553 255 25
9 6 58
4 49 51% 70% - -
1. %
2.
3.
4.
- 49% 51% 70 -
%
30 49% 51% - 70
% %

57. EU
NAFTA
G A T T AEC
www.wto.org