The document discusses how embracing complexity and uncertainty can change how we think about and organize the future. It argues that we are moving away from a view of the future as determined or predictable, to one characterized by fundamental indeterminacy. This represents a shift towards a more probabilistic view of the future and embracing creativity at all levels of nature. The document also presents the idea of a "learning intensive society" where learning is more intense and occurs throughout daily life, as well as the concept of "futures literacy" as the ability to imagine and discuss possible futures through rigorous stories.

1. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Artist: Heyko Stoeber
Education
Futures:
Part of the
Solution or Part
of the Problem?------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Riel Miller
EDUCATIONAL FUTURES
Leadership and Practice
The Open University,
Milton Keynes, May 17,

2. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Two Big Changes
Fundamental
indeterminacy
and the
creativity of
the universe
Heterarchy and
the Learning
Intensive
Society
murmuration
1. In the way we think about the world.
2. In the way we organize the world.

3. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
1. Embracing Complexity:
Changing the way we use the
future
Photo credit: Mark Schacter ©

4. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
The End of Certainty
… we are now able to include
probabilities in the formulation of the
basic laws of physics. Once this is
done, Newtonian determinism fails; the
future is no longer determined by the
Mankind is at a turning point, the beginning of a new
rationality in which science is no longer identified with
certitude and probability with ignorance. … science is no
longer limited to idealized and simplified situations but
reflects the complexity of the real world, a science that
views us and our creativity as part of a fundamental
trend present at all levels of nature.
Ilya Prigogine, The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos and the New Laws of Nature

5. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
The possible is not in the
future it is in the past.
“We must resign ourselves to the
inevitable: it is the real which makes itself
possible, and not the possible which
becomes real. But the truth is that
philosophy has never frankly admitted
this continuous creation of unforeseeable
novelty.”
Henri Bergson, The Creative Mind

6. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Caught in the Probabilistic Stance:
Probable, Possible, Plausible

7. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011

8. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
What difference
does it make?
After all everyday life
goes on.
So why bother?
• It changes what we see.
• It changes what we
imagine.
• It changes what we resist.
• It changes what we
preserve.
• It changes how we
preserve what we want to
preserve.
• It changes the conditions
of change.

9. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Then what? If we accept this
ontological starting point – how to make
it practical?
A. Take an anticipatory systems perspective that
encompasses both animate and inanimate
anticipation.
B. Distinguish the three ontological dimensions of
the potential of the present – three ways of
imagining the future and the different methods
that are related to each (ontology-
epistemology linked).
C. Learning processes that use collective
intelligence – action research, reframing, and
narrative capacity to question anticipatory
assumptions – embracing complexity,

10. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
What is Futures Literacy?

11. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Futures Literacy:
ambient strategic thinking
Futures Literacy is the capacity to tell
anticipatory stories using rigorous
imagining based on sharing depth of
knowledge from across the community.
FL is a way of internalizing the constant
development of our understanding of
the potential of the emergent present
and of changing anticipatory
assumptions.

12. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
A. Anticipatory Systems

13. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011

14. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Anticipatory Systems View
S : object system
M : model of S
E : effector system
Source: Robert Rosen, Anticipatory Systems: Philosophical, Mathematical, & Methodological Foundations., Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1985.
Slide by A. H. Louie, Mathematical Biologist

15. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
“The main difference between forecasting
and scenarios on the one hand, and
anticipation on the other, is that the latter is
a property of the system, intrinsic to its
functioning, while the former are cognitive
strategies that a system A develops in order
to understand the future of some other
system B (of which A may or may not be a
component element). … The theory of
anticipatory systems can therefore be seen
as comprising both first- and third-person
information.”

16. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
B. Three
dimensions
of the
potential of
the present

17. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011

18. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Contingency futures:
winning the lottery

19. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Optimization Futures:
Chess, Farming, Assembly Line
• Non-complex
goal, known in
advance and
fixed
• Rules are given
in advance and
fixed
• Resources are
given in advance

20. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Exploratory futures:
imagining the potential of the present

21. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011

22. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
C. Hybrid Strategic Scenario Method
Rigorous
imagining –
developing
analytically
rich and
imaginative
stories of a
functioning
society as a
way to
question our

23. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Futures Literacy: Decision Making Capacity
Using the Future for Knowledge Creation, Discovery and Communication
Narrative
Capacity
Capacity to
Reframe
Collective
Intelligence(interactive sense making)

24. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Futures Literacy in Practice
• Level 1 futures literacy
–Temporal awareness,
values, expectations
• Level 2 futures literacy
–Rigorous imagining
• Level 3 futures literacy
–Strategic scenarios

25. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Anticipatory Methods:
Context Makes a Difference
ExplorationComplex
Simple
Close
d
Ope
n
Optimization
(chess game)
Aligning Anticipatory Contexts and Systems:
Embracing Complexity – Use Futures Literacy

26. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
2. The Learning Intensive Society
Scenario – A Level 2 Model
Technology
Economy
Governance
Society
Scale of the change:
• Incremental radicalism transforms
everyday life
• Within one or two generations
• Disrupts most institutions
• Alters culture & values
Attributes of the model:
• Descriptive variables
• Not limited by how it is done
• Not causal
• Not path
• Imagining possibilities

27. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Industrial
(goods & services,
public & private)
Craft/Creative
Household
Agriculture
Agricultura
l
Industrial
Society
Learning
Intensiv
Compositional Transformation
Share of total wealth creation by source

28. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Learning in every day life is more
intense if, in daily life, over a lifetime,
people generate (flow) and accumulate
(stock) more:
– know-how
– know-who
– know-what
– know-why

29. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Greater Learning Intensity of Daily Life
Source: Riel Miller, XperidoX Futures Consulting; rielm@yahoo.com
Average
intensity of
know-what
Average
intensity of
know-how
Average
intensity of
know-who
Average intensity of
know-why (decision
making capacity)
Agricultural Society Industrial Society Learning Society

30. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Moving to the Micro-Level:
Complex societal evolution
• Economic
• Social
• Governanc
e
Photo credit: Mark Schacter, www.luxetveritas.ca

31. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Systemic Economic Transformation:
Changes What and How We Produce
“Next stage” of market economy –
beyond mass-production and mass-
consumption
• Unique creation – what is value?
• How do we organize value
creation?
• Predominant type of economic
activity
• Scope of transaction systems

32. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Unique
creation
Low
learning
intensity
High
learning
intensity
Mass-
production
Creating wealth – changing sources of value-added
Mass-era worker
and consumer
Empowered
team-worker,
informed
shopper
Artist/resear
cher/learner
Beyond the dualism of supply & demand

33. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Teasing the Imagination:
Tools for Unique Creation

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35. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011

36. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011

37. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
First car
produced
using a
“desk-top
factory”

38. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Industrial Era
Sequential Production, Consumption,
Resource Deployment Process
Supply Demand Allocation Supply Demand Allocation
Repeat
cycle

39. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Conception
Management
Execution

40. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011

41. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Starlings Flying in a Flock
Imagine Clouds of Unique Creation
Flows of Collaboration and Experience
Local and Global, Multiple Dynamic
Communities - Heterarchical
Murmuration

42. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Describing Social
Dimensions of the LIS
• Attributes of identity:
– sources
– structure
– dynamics
• Patterns of social status -
affiliation
• Ecology of culture - capacity
to be free
Social
dynamism
Towards greater heterogeneity

43. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Hetero-
geneous/small
Homo-
geneous /large
Decisions - what,
where, when,
with whom, how
Less
choice
More
choice
Scale of
social
affiliation/i
dentity
Identity & choice
Mass-era
Learning
Intensive
Society
Beyond individual vs collective: banal

44. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Describing
Governance
Dimensions of the LIS
Capacity to make &
implement decisions in all
areas of activity
Quality of decision making:
• Extent to which best
information is used
• Transparency of the network
• Extent of opportunties to
experiment
• Knowing how to learn
Dynamic
Governance
Towards greater responsibility

45. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Governance: capacity to make
decisions
Experimentation &
learning
Transparency &
access to
information
Limited &
fragmented
Extensive
& unified
Mass-era
Learning
Intensive
Society
Limited Continuous
Capacity for reframing and sense making:

46. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Less
manageable
– less clarity
of goal
More reflexivity
More
manageable
– more
clarity of
goal
Less reflexivity
Greater
freedom and
ambiguity -
spontaneity
Regime 1
(Agriculture)
Regime 2
(Industrial)
Regime 3
(Learning society)
A changing context for knowledge
creation
New conditions for education leadership and
Different contexts and times?

47. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
1 – More university graduates does not
increase wealth nor lead to “greater
competitive” advantage
Why? Three sets of changes:
A. The preponderant source of wealth is no
longer industrial (tangible or intangible).
B. The primary source of productivity
increases is learning by doing, i.e.
experience that allows for refinement of
taste (self-knowledge)
C. Unique creation is local, ideas are global
and tangibles are cheap

48. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Changing Composition of Output
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Time
PercentageShare
Industrial products Innovation (S&T/R&D)
Personal products Creativity (Refinement of taste)

49. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
2 – Reducing classroom schooling
helps to avoid fundamentalism
Functions of Industrial School
• Custody: keeping pupils safe and secure (99%)
• Behavioural rules: instilling punctuality,
obedience, respect for hierarchy (95%)
• Cognitive development: literacy, numeracy, test
scores (?)
• Socialisation: internalisation of specific values
towards civic life (?)
• Screening and sorting: reproduces
(legitimately) socio-economic differences (95%)

50. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Knowledge Creation and Destruction:
Remembering, forgetting and inventing
Living knowledge
(stock)
Discovery
(flow)
Public sector
Preservation Net
new
Private sector
Preservation Net
new
Cover it all
Non-institutional
Source: Etienne Wegner

51. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
3 – The wealthiest societies
have the highest average age
The productivity of unique
creation and the quality of
decision making capacity both
increase, all other things being
equal, with experience and better
information – this is the wisdom
economy – the know why society.

52. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Transformation
“Society is now at a stage in history in which one
pulse is ending and another beginning. The
immense destruction that a new pulse signals is
both frightening and creative. It raises
fundamental questions about transformation. The
only way to approach such a period, in which
uncertainty is very large and one cannot predict
what the future holds, is not to predict, but to
experiment and act inventively and exuberantly
via diverse adventures in living.”
C.S. “Buzz” Hollings, “Coping with Transformational Change”,
Options, IIASA, Summer 2010

53. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011

54. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
A time for method and
methods for our time
Why futures literacy now? Because a
futures literate society can use:
– diversification, imagination and inter-
dependency
to
• embrace spontaneity, experimentation &
complexity
• without being overwhelmed by
– fear of the risks (perception)
– failure (reality of risk)
• in order to inspire aspirations consistent

55. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Thank you
rielm@yahoo.com
Image: Sempe
How we anticipate matters –
it changes the present