This document discusses Russia's assessment of missile threats. It notes that most current missile threats are shorter-range tactical missiles spread around the world. For some countries, missiles are used to gain international recognition or dominance over neighbors rather than direct attack threats against major powers. The document concludes that at present, the risk of direct missile attack against states like NATO members is very low. It recommends addressing proliferation through preventive diplomacy, arms control, and reducing weapons systems rather than expensive missile defense or force.

1. Missile Threat Assessment
Russia’s MOD View

2. Слайд 2
Missile threats and challenges 2
Nation’s missile capabilities
Using rocket technologies to make
missiles
Missile challenge
Military and political intentions
of a nation to deliver a missile
strike
Missile threats

3. Слайд 2
Strategic BM arsenals reduction 3
Strategic nuclear warheads reduction
Shorter and intermediate range missile reduction

4. Слайд 3
Activities required to build ICBMs 4
- having all necessary resources
available at the national level while
establishing adequate R&D, production
and testing capacity
-manufacturing key high-tech ICBM
components and integrating them into a
single operational product
- carrying out a number of
comprehensive tests of each
individual system and the product
as a whole

5. Activities required to produce ICBMs based on Слайд 4
5
space launch vehicles
- developing a new missile flight control
system that would guarantee delivery of a
high-precision warhead to intended
surface targets by ballistic trajectory;
- ensuring conditions for high operational
readiness;
- providing long-term warranty period
operation;
- ensuring HDBT conditions for ICBMs;
- securing ICBMs from unauthorized launch.

6. Proliferation of liquid-propellant missile technologies 5
Слайд
6
to south-east
Game-changing designs are not visible
Obsolete missiles are upscaled and upgraded

7. Factors impacting military and political intentions ofСлайд 6
south-
7
east nations
- war potential of these nations significantly yields to that of states and nation
coalitions, which they may view as potential adversaries;
- relatively low level of economic self-sufficiency and capacity to hold on
under economic sanctions in case missile challenges turn into a missile threat;
- self-reliance in national security, often times in the conditions of relative
international isolation;
- inevitability of “retaliation strike” in case of self-started missile attack;
- lack of sufficient resource base enabling them to withstand a “retaliation
strike”;
- participation in key WMD non-proliferation regimes (NPT Treaty, Convention
on Prohibition of Chemical and Biological weapons etc).
Incentives for a self-started missile attack on the territory of Europe
are absent

8. Summary of comprehensive assessment of present
Слайд 6
8
missile threats
• At present it is shorter-range and tactical missiles that are
mostly spread around the world.
• For some countries missile systems primarily mean assets to
win international recognition or to achieve supremacy over
neighbors.
• A direct missile attack threat to leading states of the world
including NATO member-states look very insignificant.
• At this stage the problem of missile proliferation can and should
be addressed not solely by the use of force and not through
building expensive BMD assets, that are not always adequate to
existing missile threats, but by engaging preventive diplomacy
and strengthening arms control and non-proliferation regimes as
well as reducing weapon systems.

9. Слайд 6
Elimination of potential missile threats 9
Priority – to employ political and diplomatic methods