Clare Shine, SAC 09

1. Clare Shine
Vice-President and Chief Program Officer
Sustainability, Mindsets & Media
Salzburg Academy on Media and Global Change
21 July 2015

2. 2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Gorilla_Conservation_Programme

3. 3
http://bgr.com/2015/07/03/dolphin-attack-rare-accident/

4. 4
http://time.com/2894694/massimo-sestini-boat-italy-migrants-mare-nostrum-risk-europe/

5. 5
http://matthewniederhauser.com/research/2011/03/30/counterfeit-paradises-windows-on-the-world/

6. Competition… against what and who?

7. Post-2015 Planet:
the need for new collaborative paradigms
7
http://21centurygreengoddess.blogspot.com/2011/01/definition-day-sustainability.html

8. SUSTAINABILITY
Salzburg Global: Program Concentrations 2016-2018
8
JUSTICE
IMAGINATION
Conflict Transformation
Urban Transformation
Human Transformation

9. Program Concentrations 2016-2018
9
Urban Transformation
Pictures: WBCSD Urban Infrastructure Initiative, courtesy of Perry Heijne

10. “SPEED and
THE CITY:
Can Humans
Keep Up?”
SalzburgGlobalSeminarBoard Meeting
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi

11. Sources- “World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision”, UN, 2013; "Atlas of World Population History," McEvedy, Colin and Richard Jones, 1978
World population has reached its first billion around 1804. In the
last 2 centuries , the next 6 billions have been reached and
another 4 will be delivered by the end of this century. However,
population growth is starting to slow down.. The annual
population growth between the 3rd billion and the 7th billion was
1.7% while the expected growth from now till 2100 will be 0.5%.
Population growth will be driven mainly by Asia and Africa which
will represent 51% and 29% respectively by 2062 of total global
population
THE WORLD POPULATION WILLTHE WORLD POPULATION WILLTHE WORLD POPULATION WILLTHE WORLD POPULATION WILL
REACH 8 BILLION by 2024REACH 8 BILLION by 2024REACH 8 BILLION by 2024REACH 8 BILLION by 2024,,,, 12 years
since its last billion, but increasing at a
decreasing rate
Global Population
(In Billions, CE 1-2100)
Years Taken to
Reach
127
31
Population Billions by Region
(1804 – 2062)
1975
(59%)
(10%)
(17%) (8%)
(5%)
(1%)
2012
(60%)
(15%)
(10%)
(9%)
(1%)
(5%)
1804
(21.8%)
(9%) (3%) (2%)
(0.2%)
(64%)
Asia
Africa
Europe
Latin America
North America
Oceania
2062
(51%)
(29%) (7%)
(8%) (4%)(1%)
15
12
12
13
12
16
22
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200
10
11
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2 Billion
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi

12. WESTERN AFRICA,WESTERN AFRICA,WESTERN AFRICA,WESTERN AFRICA,
EASTERN AFRICAEASTERN AFRICAEASTERN AFRICAEASTERN AFRICA
AND MIDDLE AFRICAAND MIDDLE AFRICAAND MIDDLE AFRICAAND MIDDLE AFRICA
ARE EXPECTED TOARE EXPECTED TOARE EXPECTED TOARE EXPECTED TO
POST THE HIGHESTPOST THE HIGHESTPOST THE HIGHESTPOST THE HIGHEST
GROWTH RATES,GROWTH RATES,GROWTH RATES,GROWTH RATES,
REACHING 500%REACHING 500%REACHING 500%REACHING 500%
With a projected growth of 1.3 billion between
now and 2050, Africa will add more
population than any world region. Virtually all
of that growth will be in sub-Saharan Africa,
the region’s poorest
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi

13. 6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Rural
Urban
205
0
204
5
204
0
203
5
203
0
202
5
202
0
201
5
201
0
200
5
200
0
199
5
199
0
198
5
198
0
197
5
197
0
196
5
196
0
195
5
195
0
Growth in Urban vs Rural Population Globally
(In Millions, 1950-2050)
Forecast
Additional
Urban Population
every week
(In Millions)
5.3 6.4 7.7 10.3 10.9 13.8 14.8 13.9 12.6 11.9
Source: “World Urbanization Prospects”, United Nations, 2014
BY 2050, TWO THIRDS OFBY 2050, TWO THIRDS OFBY 2050, TWO THIRDS OFBY 2050, TWO THIRDS OF
GLOBAL POPULATION WILL BEGLOBAL POPULATION WILL BEGLOBAL POPULATION WILL BEGLOBAL POPULATION WILL BE
LIVING IN URBAN AREASLIVING IN URBAN AREASLIVING IN URBAN AREASLIVING IN URBAN AREAS
The global urban population surpassed the rural one in
2009/2010. However, with this pace of growth it is likely that
by 2050, the urban population will be double that of the rural
and accounting for two thirds of global population
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi

14. TOTAL INFRASTRUCTURETOTAL INFRASTRUCTURETOTAL INFRASTRUCTURETOTAL INFRASTRUCTURE
SPENDING WILL RISE TO US$ 9SPENDING WILL RISE TO US$ 9SPENDING WILL RISE TO US$ 9SPENDING WILL RISE TO US$ 9
TRILLION BY 2025TRILLION BY 2025TRILLION BY 2025TRILLION BY 2025 driven by Asia’s
fast urbanization- particularly China’s
Source - Upper Chart: “Capital Project and Infrastructure Spending: Outlook to 2025”, PWC, 2012
Source - Lower Chart: National Bureau of Statistics China; World Bank Development Indicators
With the rapid urbanization, infrastructure spending is likely to
go up as new cities are being built. In the past 20 years, China
has built on its own a residential space that is equivalent
between 1985 and 2011 to the land area of the Netherlands, or
in 2011 alone, more residential floor space than the entire
residential building stock in Australia. According to research
presented by the Financial Times, China’s main demographic
segment in demand of housing (25-49) will start declining soon
just in time when a huge segment of new housing comes to
market
Infrastructure Spending as % of Global Infrastructure Spending
(In %, 2008 – 2012)
23% 20% 20%
18%
15% 13%
7%
6%
6%
38%
45% 46%
7% 7% 7%
5%5%5%
Middle East
North America
Europe
FSU/CEE
Asia-Pacific
South America
Africa
201
2
3%
201
0
2%
200
8
2%
Global Infrastructure Spending
USD
9 Trillion
USD
9 Trillion
USD
4 Trillion
USD
4 Trillion
2025
2012
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi

15. THE INCREASE IN SLUMSTHE INCREASE IN SLUMSTHE INCREASE IN SLUMSTHE INCREASE IN SLUMS
PARTICULARLY IN THE DENSE AREASPARTICULARLY IN THE DENSE AREASPARTICULARLY IN THE DENSE AREASPARTICULARLY IN THE DENSE AREAS
AROUND LARGE MEGACITIES WILLAROUND LARGE MEGACITIES WILLAROUND LARGE MEGACITIES WILLAROUND LARGE MEGACITIES WILL
CAUSE MORE STRESS ON URBANCAUSE MORE STRESS ON URBANCAUSE MORE STRESS ON URBANCAUSE MORE STRESS ON URBAN
POPULATIONPOPULATIONPOPULATIONPOPULATION
URBANIZATION
The proportion of the world’s urban population living in slums
has fallen from nearly 40% a decade ago to less than a third
today. But the absolute number of slum dwellers around the
world is still rising. High population density around slums (and
megacities) especially in poorer areas are a source of concern
Population Density by Country and Top 10 Cities (In People per Square Kilometer, 2011 and 2013)
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi

16. THE GLOBAL POPULATION USESTHE GLOBAL POPULATION USESTHE GLOBAL POPULATION USESTHE GLOBAL POPULATION USES
RESOURCES BEYOND ITS MEANSRESOURCES BEYOND ITS MEANSRESOURCES BEYOND ITS MEANSRESOURCES BEYOND ITS MEANS
which puts further pressure on the global
ecology
The threshold of what Earth can sustainably provide was
reached in 1976. Currently, we are using the equivalent of
over 1.5 Earths—in other words, exceeding what nature can
provide by more than half. It is predicted that if the world
continues on that pace that we would need almost 3 earths by
2050. Which means it will take the earth 3 years then to
regenerate what has been used in one year
Global Ecological Footprint
(In Number of Earths Needed, 1961 - 2050)
Source- Global Footprint Network
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
196
1
199
0
197
0
198
0
205
0
204
0
203
0
202
0
200
7
200
0
201
0
Global Biocapacity=1 Earth
Above the World’s
Biocapacity
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi

17. THE RAPID GROWTH OFTHE RAPID GROWTH OFTHE RAPID GROWTH OFTHE RAPID GROWTH OF
MEGACITIES HAS POSED MAJORMEGACITIES HAS POSED MAJORMEGACITIES HAS POSED MAJORMEGACITIES HAS POSED MAJOR
WATER PLANNING ANDWATER PLANNING ANDWATER PLANNING ANDWATER PLANNING AND
MANAGEMENT CHALLANGESMANAGEMENT CHALLANGESMANAGEMENT CHALLANGESMANAGEMENT CHALLANGES
The rise of megacities is not a new phenomenon as much of
the developed cities such as London and New York started to
grow in the nineteenth century. However, the rate of growth of
megacities today is much faster than in the past and the rise of
megacities has not been gradual like in the developed world.
This puts further pressure on the availability and quality of
water in many of the new developing world cities
Source: “Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2030”, Roland Berger, 2014
Challenges of Megacities in Water Supply
(In % and In Relevant Metrics, Latest Available Data)
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi

18. Note: (1) Water Scarcity refers to more than 40% of population living in water short areas while Water Stress refers to 20%-40% of population living in water short areas
Source: “Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2030”, Roland Berger, 2014 (based on IFPRI and Veolia)
Water scarcity is on the rise with more than half of the global
population set to be living in water stressed and water scarce
areas. The nature of water insecurity varies by region where in the
MENA region it is mostly driven by physical scarcity while in parts
of Africa it is mostly economic. Irrespective of its nature, water
security is likely to impact economic activity dramatically
particularly given its prevalence across the world’s largest and
most populous economies
BY 2050, 52% OF THE WORLD’SBY 2050, 52% OF THE WORLD’SBY 2050, 52% OF THE WORLD’SBY 2050, 52% OF THE WORLD’S
POPULATION WILL BE LIVING INPOPULATION WILL BE LIVING INPOPULATION WILL BE LIVING INPOPULATION WILL BE LIVING IN
WATER SCARCITYWATER SCARCITYWATER SCARCITYWATER SCARCITY putting further strain on
economic development
Population and GDP Generation in Water Stressed Areas
(In % of Total, 2010 and 2050)
36%
52%
18%
16%
46%
32%
Water Stress(1)
Water Scarcity(1)
205
0
201
0
No Stress
22%
45%
19%
25%
59%
30%
201
0
No
Stress
Water
Stress
Water
Scarcity
205
0
Share of People Living in Water Short Areas Share of GDP Generated in Water Short Regions
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi

19. World Population, Individuals using the Internet and Global Connected Devices Sold over Time
(In Billions of People, 2005-2014 and In Billion Units, 2008-2014)
PEOPLE, PROCESSES, DATA ANDPEOPLE, PROCESSES, DATA ANDPEOPLE, PROCESSES, DATA ANDPEOPLE, PROCESSES, DATA AND
THINGS ARE INCREASINGLY BEINGTHINGS ARE INCREASINGLY BEINGTHINGS ARE INCREASINGLY BEINGTHINGS ARE INCREASINGLY BEING
CONNECTEDCONNECTEDCONNECTEDCONNECTED making “the Internet of
things” a new revolutionizing force
The Internet has revolutionized the way people connect with
each other driving growth in most economies. The ability to
connect sensors to objects or things on the Internet, to extract
and analyze growing amounts of data, and then to use that
analysis in both automated and non-automated processes
promises enormous potential for further economic growth
Note: (1) Date for 2014 Population estimates is based on August 2014 data as recorded by the Population Research Bureau
Sources: World Bank Development Indicators; ITU Statistics; Statista; Population Research Bureau; “Connectivity in Consumer, Mobile & IT Market Tracker”, IHS, 2014
Internet
Penetration
(In %)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
7.5
6.0
4.5
3.0
1.5
0.0
Individuals Using
the Internet
World Population
Global Connected
Device Sales
6.2
7.2(1)
2.9
5.8
7.1
2.7
7.0
2.5
2.3
7.0
2.3
1.9
6.9
2.0
1.5
6.8
1.8
1.5
6.7
1.6
6.6
1.4
6.6
1.2
6.5
1.0
17.6 20.6 23.1 25.6 29.4 32.5 35.5 37.9 40.415.8
Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi

20. SMART CITIES’ MAIN INVESTMENTSSMART CITIES’ MAIN INVESTMENTSSMART CITIES’ MAIN INVESTMENTSSMART CITIES’ MAIN INVESTMENTS
WILL BE IN GOVERNANCE,WILL BE IN GOVERNANCE,WILL BE IN GOVERNANCE,WILL BE IN GOVERNANCE,
EDUCATION AND ENERGYEDUCATION AND ENERGYEDUCATION AND ENERGYEDUCATION AND ENERGY with focus on
eLearning and sustainability
Smart cities will create huge business opportunities for the
development of infrastructure, education, healthcare, energy,
security, mobility and buildings that are smart and sustainable.
The value of this market will reach US$1.5 Trillion by 2020
Smart City Illustration
SMARTPHONES
DETECTION
SMART ROADS
VEHICLE
AUTO-DIAGNOSIS
TRAFFIC
CONGESTION SMART LIGHTING
SMART GRID
BUILDING
MANAGER
THERMAL AND
ELECTRICAL STORAGE
RENEWABLE
ENERGY
SMART HOME
WASTE
MANAGEMENT
Note: (1) Smart City Market Value is measured by the valuation of the smart city technologies and associated products and services
Source- Upper Chart: “World’s Top Global Mega Trends to 2025 and Implications to Business, Society and Cultures”, Frost & Sullivan, 2012
Source - Lower Chart: Literature Review Slide courtesy of Mona Hammami, Crown Prince Court, Abu Dhabi

21. THE MAIN SHARING ECONOMYTHE MAIN SHARING ECONOMYTHE MAIN SHARING ECONOMYTHE MAIN SHARING ECONOMY
SECTORS WILL GROW MUCH FASTERSECTORS WILL GROW MUCH FASTERSECTORS WILL GROW MUCH FASTERSECTORS WILL GROW MUCH FASTER
THAN THE RATE OF TRADITIONALTHAN THE RATE OF TRADITIONALTHAN THE RATE OF TRADITIONALTHAN THE RATE OF TRADITIONAL
RENTALRENTALRENTALRENTAL
SECTORSSECTORSSECTORSSECTORS particularly car and house rental
Sharing economy businesses based on a “peer-to-peer” (P2P)
model are increasingly replacing traditional markets, with top
performers attracting subscribers and funding at exponential rates.-
thus taking away business from traditional models as well as
creating new business. While traditional rental industries are
unlikely to disappear in the foreseeable future, their growth will be
relatively sluggish – for example, while the car rental market is
projected to grow at a CAGR of 2% through 2025, the car sharing
market will grow over 11 times faster
Leading Sharing Economy Enterprises Impacting Traditional Business
(All Statistics Latest Available, 2014)
Source – Top Chart: “The Sharing Economy: Sizing the Revenue Opportunity,” PwC, 2014
Spinlister
100+ countries
(2012)
Kickstarter
+US$ 1.7 billion
pledges
(Latest Available
Data)
DogVacay
+20,000 listed pet
sitters
(2011)
Uber 260 cities Served
(2010)
Vinted
+14 million clothes
listings
(2008)
Airbnb
+37 million
nights stayed (2008)
TaskRabbit
1.25 million joiners
2013 (2008)
LiquidSpace
+16,000 user
companies
(2010)
Elance
2.5 million employments
(1999)
RelayRides
+2,300 cities
served
(2010)
Netflix
57.4 million
subscribers
(1997)
Streetbank
+61,700 things
shared
(2010)
Skillshare
+1,000 classes
(2010)
xx
(xx)
Company
Year Founded

22. Cities of the Future: Crossing Boundaries
social and
environmental
Left and centre images: www.kateraworth.com / doughnuteconomics.org
mindsets
& behaviors
geopolitical
& normative

23. A safe and
just space
for
humanity
www.kateraworth.com / doughnuteconomics.org

24. www.kateraworth.com / doughnuteconomics.org