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WELCOME
SHOULD U.S. RAISE ITS
   DEBT CEILING?
THE FLOW
• The Current Scenario
• How did they reach here
• Why do you need debt ceiling?
• The Criticality of the situation
• Issues if they raise and if they don’t raise
  the ceiling
• Open Forum
CURRENT SCENARIO

• US $14.29 trillion

• 96% of GDP

• AAA rating since 1917
Have High Debt and High Rating

Why US has been able to raise so much money
THE DOLLAR
• Largest industrial base and surplus of dollar
backed by Gold post 2nd world war.

•1971: The Dollar was fixed as Reserve Currency.

• 1973 oil crisis: Increase in US treasury bills
held by central governments

•As a result demand for Dollar increased in the
world arena.
WHO IS HOLDING THIS DEBT
DEBT CEILING
DEBT CEILING

• Limits the amount of public debt that
  can be outstanding.

• Prevents the U.S. Treasury from
  issuing new debt once the limit has
  been reached.
IMPORTANCE OF DEBT
     CEILING
IMPORTANCE OF DEBIT CEILING


• Provides Congress with the strings to
  control the federal purse

• A form of fiscal accountability

• Compels Congress and the President to
  check their debt borrowings
But you can always increase it
The REASONS

    From a forecast annual surpluses of
$850 billion for 2009–2012 to deficit reality of
                 $1,215 billion
How serious is this issue of Debt ceiling
Default in
payment
Default in   Employment
payment
Default in   Employment
payment




 Inflation
Default in   Employment
payment




Inflation     Exchange
                Rate
GDP
Default in         Employment
payment




Inflation            Exchange
                       Rate
GDP
Default in              Employment
payment

             National
             Income


Inflation                 Exchange
                            Rate
GDP
Default in              Employment
payment

             National
             Income        Stock Market


Inflation                 Exchange
                            Rate
GDP
Default in                  Employment
payment

                National
                Income         Stock Market


Inflation                     Exchange
                                Rate
             Dollar Value
GDP
                                  Employment
      Default in
      payment

Interest              National
 Rates                Income         Stock Market


     Inflation                      Exchange
                                      Rate
                   Dollar Value
IF THEY DON’T RAISE THE
     DEBT CEILING
• Decrease in Expenses

• Effect on Stock Market

• Sky High mortgage and Interest rate

• Treasury Bond Collapse
BUT WHAT IF THEY RAISE
  THE DEBT CEILING
Dollar weakens
Imports
• Imports become dearer.

• End up paying more money for same quantity
  of goods purchased.

• Pace of economic growth rate slows down.
Exports
• Exports become cheaper.

• Importer country ends up buying same
  amount of goods for a lesser price.

• As a result of increase in exports, the trade
  deficit might decrease.
INFLATION

• As imports get dearer, inflation increases.

• Prices of goods increases.
INTEREST RATES
• As a result of increase in inflation, the interest
  rates will go up.

• Investor confidence will go down.

• As a result the investment in the economy will
  go down.
CAPITAL FLIGHT
• Flow of funds or investments from develop to
  developing countries.

• Increases unemployment in the country.
CAPITAL FORMATION
• Investments and capital formation are
  positively correlated.

• As investments go down rate of capital
  formation goes down.

• Hence government needs money to initiate
  investments and growth in the economy.
Us debt crisis
Us debt crisis

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Us debt crisis

  • 2. SHOULD U.S. RAISE ITS DEBT CEILING?
  • 3. THE FLOW • The Current Scenario • How did they reach here • Why do you need debt ceiling? • The Criticality of the situation • Issues if they raise and if they don’t raise the ceiling • Open Forum
  • 4. CURRENT SCENARIO • US $14.29 trillion • 96% of GDP • AAA rating since 1917
  • 5. Have High Debt and High Rating Why US has been able to raise so much money
  • 6. THE DOLLAR • Largest industrial base and surplus of dollar backed by Gold post 2nd world war. •1971: The Dollar was fixed as Reserve Currency. • 1973 oil crisis: Increase in US treasury bills held by central governments •As a result demand for Dollar increased in the world arena.
  • 7. WHO IS HOLDING THIS DEBT
  • 9. DEBT CEILING • Limits the amount of public debt that can be outstanding. • Prevents the U.S. Treasury from issuing new debt once the limit has been reached.
  • 11. IMPORTANCE OF DEBIT CEILING • Provides Congress with the strings to control the federal purse • A form of fiscal accountability • Compels Congress and the President to check their debt borrowings
  • 12. But you can always increase it
  • 13.
  • 14. The REASONS From a forecast annual surpluses of $850 billion for 2009–2012 to deficit reality of $1,215 billion
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. How serious is this issue of Debt ceiling
  • 22. Default in Employment payment
  • 23. Default in Employment payment Inflation
  • 24. Default in Employment payment Inflation Exchange Rate
  • 25. GDP Default in Employment payment Inflation Exchange Rate
  • 26. GDP Default in Employment payment National Income Inflation Exchange Rate
  • 27. GDP Default in Employment payment National Income Stock Market Inflation Exchange Rate
  • 28. GDP Default in Employment payment National Income Stock Market Inflation Exchange Rate Dollar Value
  • 29. GDP Employment Default in payment Interest National Rates Income Stock Market Inflation Exchange Rate Dollar Value
  • 30. IF THEY DON’T RAISE THE DEBT CEILING
  • 31. • Decrease in Expenses • Effect on Stock Market • Sky High mortgage and Interest rate • Treasury Bond Collapse
  • 32. BUT WHAT IF THEY RAISE THE DEBT CEILING
  • 33.
  • 35. Imports • Imports become dearer. • End up paying more money for same quantity of goods purchased. • Pace of economic growth rate slows down.
  • 36. Exports • Exports become cheaper. • Importer country ends up buying same amount of goods for a lesser price. • As a result of increase in exports, the trade deficit might decrease.
  • 37. INFLATION • As imports get dearer, inflation increases. • Prices of goods increases.
  • 38. INTEREST RATES • As a result of increase in inflation, the interest rates will go up. • Investor confidence will go down. • As a result the investment in the economy will go down.
  • 39.
  • 40. CAPITAL FLIGHT • Flow of funds or investments from develop to developing countries. • Increases unemployment in the country.
  • 41. CAPITAL FORMATION • Investments and capital formation are positively correlated. • As investments go down rate of capital formation goes down. • Hence government needs money to initiate investments and growth in the economy.