Better Energy For Ireland

Naganathan, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul, Siriwardhana
Page
E n e r g y & E n v i r o n m e n t P r o j e c t
2012
Better Energy for Ireland
A better, more sustainable, future
Naganathan, S.;Piechulek, E.;Ranzanici,A.;Saul, C.; Siriwardhana, D.
Course MJ 2413 – Energy and Environment
Division of Energy Systems Analysis
Department of Energy Technology
Winter Semester 2012/2013

PageI
Abstract
This report aims to analyse different future possible energy and climate scenarios for the Republic of
Ireland from 2011 to 2040.
The project is an independent part of the course of Energy and Environment offered by The Royal Insti-
tute of Technology (KTH) of Stockholm as part of the academic curriculum of different Master programs
in the field of Energy Technology.
The report analyses and discusses three different main energy future scenarios, which were created us-
ing the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software, and compares them with other
especially regarding the expected reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
The first scenario, Business as Usual (BAU), has been designed so that no policies of any sort are put in
place and that only very few variables, such as GDP, Population and Income Growth affect the future
energy development.
In addition to the baseline scenario, the Demand Side Management Scenario (DSM), which aims to re-
duce the peak load by shifting the demand while increasing the efficiency, and the 202020 Policy Scenar-
io with Offshore Generation have been created, which accounts for individual policies and goals Ireland
has set in order to meet its commitments to the European Union’s climate and energy targets
Finally, all the scenarios have been compared with a particular focus on the Global Warming Potential
reduction achieved by each of them.

PageII
Table of Contents
Abstract..............................................................................................................................................I
Table of Contents...............................................................................................................................II
List of Figures....................................................................................................................................III
List of Tables .....................................................................................................................................III
Inside Ireland .....................................................................................................................................1
An Economy in Transition.......................................................................................................................... 1
Current Demand Situation ........................................................................................................................ 2
Better Energy............................................................................................................................................. 5
Policy in the EU and Ireland ................................................................................................................6
Ireland Tomorrow ..............................................................................................................................7
The Approach ............................................................................................................................................ 7
Data Sources.............................................................................................................................................. 9
Growth Predictions.................................................................................................................................... 9
Future Projections using LEAP...........................................................................................................10
Business as Usual..................................................................................................................................... 10
Demand Side Management (DSM).......................................................................................................... 12
New Policy: Meeting 2020 Commitments and Beyond........................................................................... 16
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation ..............................................................................................................23
Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................27
Looking Forward ..............................................................................................................................28
ANNEX - I ............................................................................................................................................i
ANNEX - II .........................................................................................................................................iii
ANNEX - III ........................................................................................................................................ iv
ANNEX - IV .........................................................................................................................................v

PageIII
List of Figures
Figure 1: Historical energy demand in Ireland 1995-2010 by sector ............................................................ 3
Figure 2: Historical energy demand in Ireland 1995-2010 by fuel................................................................ 3
Figure 3: Energy Demand in Ireland in 2010 by fuel ..................................................................................... 4
Figure 4: Key Assumption breakdown........................................................................................................... 7
Figure 5: Demand breakdown....................................................................................................................... 8
Figure 6: BAU Projection of Primary Resource Requirements 2010-2040.................................................. 10
Figure 7: BAU Projection of Demand Requirements 2010-2040................................................................. 11
Figure 8: Peak Load Shape comparison between BAU and DSM scenarios (i.e. before and after peak load
management).............................................................................................................................................. 12
Figure 9: Potential Savings in the Residential, Industry and Commercial Sectors by 2020 ........................ 13
Figure 10: Reduction in Primary Requirements from BAU scenario (by fuel)............................................. 14
Figure 11: Reduction in energy demand in DSM scenario. ......................................................................... 14
Figure 12: Avoided endogenous capacity additions through DSM implementation iny Electricity
Generation Processes)................................................................................................................................. 15
Figure 14: Electricity Transformation under REFIT 2 and 3......................................................................... 19
Figure 15: Electricity Generation Fuel Inputs under 202020+Offshore scenario in the year 2020 ............ 19
Figure 16: Electricity Generation Fuel Inputs under 202020 scenario in the year 2020............................. 19
Figure 17: Energy Demand in the Transportation Sector............................................................................ 20
Figure 18: Changes in Primary Energy for the Transport Sector with Transport Policy alone and with
additional renewable energy ...................................................................................................................... 21
Figure 19: Energy Mix under 202020 Scenario in the year 2020 ................................................................ 21
Figure 20: Energy Mix under 202020 .......................................................................................................... 22
Figure 21: Projection of tonnes of CO2 Equivalent and %-share of total emissions by demand sector 2010-
2040............................................................................................................................................................. 23
Figure 22: Projection of GHG emmision in the BAU scenario 2010-2040................................................... 23
Figure 23: Global Warming potential in BAU projection by grouped fuel, 2010-2040............................... 24
Figure 24: Global Warming Potential in BAU projection by fuel, 2010-2040 ............................................. 24
Figure 25: Historical energy demand by fuel 1995-2010 ............................................................................ 25
Figure 26: Projected Global Warming Potential for all scenarios 2010-2040............................................. 25
Figure 27: Global Warming Potential when all scenarios are implemented "202020+offshore". As can be
seen from this figure, the GHG reduction in the residential sector, followed by the transport sector...... 26
List of Tables
Table 1: Total energy generation approved through REFIT3 ...................................................................... 16
Table 2: Direct comparison of REFIT2 and REFIT3 support levels............................................................... 17
Table 3: REFIT2: capacity categorization..................................................................................................... 17
Table 4: Predicted growth of ethanol share in the transport sector 2010-2040........................................ 18

Ireland Inside
Page1
Inside Ireland
The Republic of Ireland is a country with 4.46
million people (year 2010) located on the ho-
monymous island, which is to the northwest of
Great Britain. The territory is divided between
the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland,
which is part of the United Kingdom. For the
purposes of this report, Ireland will refer to the
Republic of Ireland.
An Economy in Transition
From the beginning of the ‘90s up to the global
economic crisis in 2007, Ireland’s real domestic
product per head grew dramatically, transform-
ing the Republic from one of the poorest coun-
tries Europe to one of the ten richest in the
world.
The main cause of this incredible and fast transi-
tion is due to its openness to free international
trade and investment as well as its business-
friendly industrial and tax policies.
The Irish economy was strongly hit by the inter-
national financial crisis, so some sectors have
been contracting; however, the country is ex-
pected to fully recover and start growing at the
previous pace in the coming years.

Ireland Inside
Better Energy for Ireland 2012
Page2
Current Demand Situation
Presently, the Republic of Ireland is facing major
problems in terms of energy security and sus-
tainability, since approximately the 87.7%
(15,576 kilotons of oil equivalent) of its demand
in 2010 was satisfied by fossil fuels such as oil
and natural gas, which were imported from
neighbouring countries, like United Kingdom.
One of the main reasons why Ireland has such a
strong dependence on oil products is that the
transport sector is largely dependent on road
transportation with one vehicle for every two
people and a steady decline in rail freight in
favour of lorries.
Moreover, as an Island, the Republic is charac-
terized by heavy planes and boat traffic. The
transport is the sector that has been increasing
most rapidly over the last 15 years and repre-
sents the largest sectorial energy demand with a
27% share.
Notably, oil was recently discovered off the Irish
coast; so the way in which the country utilizes
this resource going forward will have a great
impact on their energy profile.
The other very important contribution in terms
of energy supply comes from the natural gas
which has become the most important fuel for
electricity generation, gradually replacing the
older coal and oil plants.

Ireland Inside
Page3
Figure 1: Historical energy demand in Ireland 1995-2010 by sector
Figure 2: Historical energy demand in Ireland 1995-2010 by fuel

Ireland Inside
Page4
Figure 3: Energy Demand in Ireland in 2010 by fuel

Ireland Inside
Page5
Better Energy
In terms of renewable energy, wind, especially
offshore, will become a more important source
of energy in the coming years and already has a
capacity of around 1700 MW as of 2010.
Finally, as an island, Ireland has great potential
for wave and tidal energy; however, the tech-
nology to harness these resources on a large
scale is not expected to be ready until around
2020.
For all these reasons, the emissions of CO2 per
capita in Ireland, which was equal 2010 to
10589 kg/person in 2010, are still above the EU
targets in terms of GHG reduction and the goals
of the Kyoto Protocol, both of which will be
difficult to achieve by 2020. [1]

Policy in the EU and Ireland
Estrella, Ranzanici, Piechulek, Saul
Page6
Policy in the EU and Ireland
Ireland supports the European Energy Policy
with specific energy policy objectives that are
aimed to fight climate change while simultane-
ously increasing energy security and competi-
tiveness in the market. A significant challenge
arises from the combination between a growing
economy and the limitations due to the pres-
ence of remote geographic locations with re-
stricted indigenous fuel resources. The White
Paper, Climate Change Strategy and National
Energy Efficiency Action Plan are some of many
important documents that reflect the Govern-
ment’s energy policy objectives and commit-
ment towards a sustainable future, promoting
Security of Energy Supply, Sustainability of Ener-
gy, Competitiveness of Energy Supply.
One of the strategic goals underlined in “Actions
to Promote the Sustainability of Energy Supply
and Use” is to “Maximize Energy Efficiency and
energy savings across the economy” [2]. The
main objective behind energy efficiency is to
meet demand with less energy overall demand.
Ireland’s contributions to the EU’s 20/20/20
goals are to have 16% of their energy come
from renewable sources and have a 20% in-
crease in efficiency, with respect to 2001-2005
values, by 2020.
In order to achieve this, they are relying on the
energy for heating to increase to 12% being
generated from renewable sources by 2020.
Heating demand was determined to be outside
the scope of this project as there is little reliable
user-level data. Stoves or heaters that are fed
directly by residents provide much of residential
heating, rather than utility level district heating,
which could provide more reliable data.
Ireland has set a target of having 40% of their
electricity generated from renewable sources by
2020. 90% of that is expected to come from
wind [3].

Ireland Tomorrow
Page7
Ireland Tomorrow
The following study considers Ireland’s emis-
sions and energy profiles under several condi-
tions:
 Business as Usual: The first scenario aims to
simulate how the energy scenario of the fol-
lowing 30 years would evolve if no policies
of any sort or new technologies were put in
place. For this goal the only variables taken
into consideration were the estimated pro-
jections up to 2040 of GDP, Population and
Income per capita. This scenario has allowed
to individualize the critical points of the Irish
energy system and to define how policies
could be implemented in order to minimize
the energy demand and the GHG emissions.
 Demand Side Management: The demand
side management aims to reduce peak load
by shifting loads from high peak to off-peak
periods while increasing efficiency of all
economic sectors (industrial, commercial
and public services) and domestic sectors.
 20/20/20 + Offshore Generation: The
20/20/20 scenario aims to put in place all
the policies that Ireland has committed to in
order for Europe to meet its emissions, re-
newables and efficiency. This includes ex-
panding renewables capacities, changing
the structure of the transport sector and in-
creasing efficiency in the industrial and
commercial sectors. An additional scenario,
+ Offshore Generation, has been created to
show the effects of additional offshore re-
newable sources including wave, tidal and
offshore wind turbines, which Ireland has
proposed, but not committed to due to
technical, environmental and economic un-
certainty. Finally, a more detailed compari-
son on the Global Warming Potential has
been addressed.
The project has been developed with a particu-
lar focus on the electricity flow and its associat-
ed effects within the country in terms of energy
demand, transformation, and environmental
impact.
The Approach
The first step was to define a data structure in
order to schematize and better understand the
energy flow occurring in the model.
For this purpose, a top-down approach has been
used, starting from the final energy demand by
sector and going down to the energy transfor-
mation to conclude with the primary resources
available or imported by the country.
Then, these three main branches (Demand,
Transformation and Resources) were further
split in more specific branches, which are de-
tailed in the following figures.
Key Assumptions
In order to define trends, projections of some
key parameters into the future have been cre-
ated.
Such factors include Gross Domestic Projection
(GDP) of the country, Population Growth and
Income per capita. These three critical aspects
have been defined in LEAP under the section
Key Parameters.
Figure 4: Key Assumption breakdown

Ireland Tomorrow
Page8
This approach permitted the association be-
tween changes in demand and these key pa-
rameters with which they are strongly connect-
ed. For example, growth in residential energy
demand was linked to Population Growth, in-
dustrial demand to GDP, personal vehicle use
tied to income per capita.
The above-mentioned trends for the key pa-
rameters have been taken both from national
and international sources and have been esti-
mated taking into consideration the wider
point-of-view of the European context in terms
of future expected growth.
Demand
Concerning energy demand, the country can be
divided into five broad categories: Industry,
Residential, Commercial and Public Services,
Transport and Agriculture and Fishing.
Each of these sectors has been further split in
more detailed and specific subsections, detailed
in Figure 5.
Figure 5: Demand breakdown
For this project, the baseline demand values
were for the most part taken directly from the
SEAI 2011 Energy Balance. To create a complete
breakdown of demand and activity level, re-
quired the combination of some subsectors, due
to discrepancies between how Ireland’s Central
Statistics Office and SEAI group industries.
The level of detail required by the energy de-
mand section of the model is necessary because
it is a driving-force that affects all the conse-
quent sections such as transformation and
availability of resources.
Furthermore, such a high-level of precision has
permitted better visualization and therefore
analysis of how various sectors affect and react
to the implementation of different scenarios.

Ireland Tomorrow
Page9
Transformation
Energy transformation was split into four
branches: Transmission and Distribution,
Pumped Hydro, Electricity Generation and Oil
Refining.
The primary concern of the model is electricity,
but Ireland’s single pumped hydroelectric stor-
age station and lone oil refinery represent cru-
cial links in the energy chain as Ireland contin-
ues to develop.
Data Sources
Once the structure of the model was defined,
the next step was to collect information and
data for each of these branches, in order to
simulate future scenarios in LEAP.
One of the key aspects which was taken into
consideration was the reliability of the source,
since the amount of different and contrasting
data could have affected the functioning of the
tool in the following phases.
For all these reasons and its completeness of
data, the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ire-
land (SEAI) has been chosen as the main source
of information to be taken into consideration in
the design of the model.
Each year the SEAI provides a series of updated
and detailed reports on the actual energy con-
sumption of the country as well as projections
on estimated developments.
Whenever additional information was needed
that was not available from SEAI, data from
reputable national and international institutions
such as Central Statistical Office of Ireland
(CSO), OECD, IEA and EuroStat were used.
Growth Predictions
Finally, other independent variables that are
expected to be independent or loosely correlat-
ed to the already defined parameters, such as
the growth rate for each industrial sector, have
been, in part, projected by LEAP based on the
historical trend, usually over a fifteen year peri-
od, generally 1995-2010.
On some occasions, especially during the defini-
tion of Activity Level, not enough historical data
was available. Hence, the trend following the
little data found was observed and judged based
on feasibility. In the industrial sector, for exam-
ple, only activity levels of 2009 and 2010 could
be defined; however, due to the economic and
political circumstances, the values were too
controversial to use for the projection of future
growth. In this case, trends were established
based on by studying projections stated in sev-
eral documents established by viable sources.
The process of defining growth varied between
sectors and scenarios as the data found was
inconsistent and could rarely be entered into
LEAP directly. Manipulation of data to make
them comparable and usable was needed.

Future Projections using LEAP
Page10
Business as Usual
The business as usual (BAU) scenario is mainly
based on the key parameters and their project-
ed growth up to 2040.
Assumptions
The demand requirements will be met based on
Ireland’s current dispatch merit order, with the
hypothesis that the exogenous capacity will be
increased based only on the already existing
technologies.
Industry
 The share of industrial added value to GDP
and its subsectors has been proposed to re-
main constant into the future, with an elas-
ticity of 0.62 with respect to GDP (trend ob-
served from historical data).
 The energy intensity related to the industry
has experienced a constant decrease over
the past 10 year and will continue doing so.
Commercial and Public Services
 Services will follow the historical trend
Residential
 Future projections are correlated to equal-
ized disposable income per individual and the
population growth. In both cases, these pa-
rameters experience a future growth, hence
both the energy intensity per person and the
activity level of the residential sector are ex-
pected to increase.
Transport [4]:
 With increasing income, the stock of private
cars and fuel consumption per car rise, main-
ly due to the purchase of bigger cars
 The Public Passenger Services sector is slow-
ly, but steadily increasing with population.
 Demand for rail freight decreases as road
freight increases. This simultaneous increase
in road freight indicates a modal shift be-
tween rail and road freight transport.
 The number of passengers commuting by
rail has increased.
Figure 6: BAU Projection of Primary Resource Requirements 2010-2040

Page11
Transformation
 To meet increasing demand, additional en-
dogenous capacity for existing technologies
has been planned. New power plants will be
installed according to their dispatch merit
order and the share has been supposed to be
constant.
Results
With respect to the total demand, the projected
trends of the overall energy consumption is
expected to almost double from about 11000
ktoe in 2010 to about 21000 ktoe in 2040, with
a +45% in respect to the baseline year in 2030.
The most critical growth rates are expected to
be in the transport sector, followed by residen-
tial. A general decrease in the Agriculture and
Fishing is observed by 2040.
The rapid growth of the two above-mentioned
sectors results in a significant increase in de-
mand for natural gas, which is the main fuel
used for electricity generation, and oil products,
which are used for transportation.
Key Outcomes
 Though transport is often regarded as the
most problematic sector, the residential
demand of energy must not be neglected as
it represents an important share.
 The use of fossil fuels for both these two
sectors put Ireland in a very critical situation
in terms of energy dependency, since most
of these resources are imported from
neighbouring countries.
 Due to the increased use of electric appli-
ances, electricity also assumes a great role
in satisfying the final energy demand. This
proves great potential to replace many elec-
tric generating processes with cleaner sys-
tems based on renewable energy sources.
 Likewise, demand minimization through
efficiency measures is facilitated.
Figure 7: BAU Projection of Demand Requirements 2010-2040

Page12
Demand Side Management (DSM)
To guarantee that demand is met at all times,
energy (especial electric) generating plants are
built according to the maximum peak load. Ire-
land’s peak load is approximately 4800MW,
about 1000MW higher than the average load. In
addition, the increase in electricity demand in
the past years has resulted in the need for
greater generation capacity as current stations
are stretched to their limits during peak hours
[5]. A shifting of load from peak to off-peak pe-
riods would greatly enhance utilization of in-
stalled generators and reduce fuel cost by, for
example, reducing spinning reserve.
DSM pays a fundamental role in promoting en-
ergy efficiency and managing load; DSM is a key
factor in the implementation of Ireland’s sus-
tainable energy policy. DSM offers a number of
advantages including [5] [6] :
 Management of demand-supply balance
between intermittent renewables in distrib-
uted power systems; demand is better
matched with different renewable energy
availability.
 Improvement of system operation efficien-
cy; improved use of system infrastructure
 Improvement of transmission and distribu-
tion efficiency; lower costs
 Reduction of the generation margin; in-
creased consumer growth capacity
 Increased availability
The benefits of DSM play even a larger role
when considering the increased use of renewa-
ble energies in the system. Though the DSM
approach faces great challenges in assuming a
competitive role (versus traditional approaches)
and solutions require an increased complexity
within the system, the scenario simulated illus-
trates the positive effects DSM implementation
can have on Ireland’s energy demand and ca-
pacity generation [6].
Assumptions
Two key aspects were considered for the DSM
scenario: peak load management and efficiency
improvement.
Peak Load Management
This shifts load from high peak to off-peak peri-
ods, increasing the scope for reduction of gen-
eration capacity needs. This would increase the
Figure 8: Peak Load Shape comparison between BAU and DSM scenarios (i.e. before and after peak
load management)
Average 68%

Page13
utilization of generating plant capacity, reducing
the need for plants to ramp up and down, and
would therefore increase the efficiency of gen-
eration investment.
According to the SEAI report on Demand Side
Management, Ireland has committed to national
energy savings of 20% by 2020, corresponding
to peak load reduction potential of 1233 MW,
however, for the DSM scenario a more aggres-
sive plan has been selected as per Ireland’s Na-
tional Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP).
Thus a total peak load savings of 1344 MW was
chosen.
Load was removed from the high peak period
and distributed to the lower end of the off-peak
period, flattening the curve (see Figure 8). The
new values are represented as a percentage of
the BAU peak load.
Efficiency Improvement
Energy intensity reduction potential can be cat-
egorized into two main categories: technical and
economic potential1
.
 For the purpose of this scenario, the eco-
nomic potential was selected.
 As per the SEAI report on DSM, the eco-
nomic energy efficiency savings potential
was estimated to be a total of 25,640 GWh
(approximately 26% of 2008 usage).
 Industry, Residential and Commer-
cial/Public services sectors were chosen to
reflect this decrease in energy intensities.
1
Technical potential , is an estimate of the total
technically feasible reduction from an engineering
perspective, by putting in place all energy efficiency
and reduction measures. Technical potential does
not take into consideration any costs. The economic
potential refers to those measures that are cost
effective under current conditions.
 There is a decreasing trend of overall diesel
usage; however an increasing tendency to-
wards electricity and natural gas as fuels.
 Industry will continue decreasing the final
energy intensity as has been done histori-
cally between 1995 and 2005, however
more aggressively.
 Due to limited information, energy savings
could only be applied up until the year
2020. Hence, energy demand values after
2020 tend to stay constant up until 2040,
though in reality they should reduce.
Results
 By 2030, energy demand in the DSM sce-
nario show 11.8 ktoe versus 16.5 ktoe in
BAU (a difference of almost 30%). See
Figure 11.
 Between 2010 to 2030, total savings in
primary resource requirements in natural
gas, oil products, renewables and solid
fuels amount to approx. 69m, 44m, 2m,
13.5m tonnes of oil equivalent
 The flattening of the BAU load curve and
distribution of peak loads to time slices
with lower loads, as well as the implement-
ed efficiency measures, resulted in a de-
crease in generation capacity transfor-
mation outputs
Figure 9: Potential Savings in the Residential,
Industry and Commercial Sectors by 2020

Page14
 Due to peak load management, DSM scenar-
io does not require any endogenous capacity
additions.
 In DSM, as a combined result from efficiency
improvements and peak load management,
future energy demand can be met soely
through exogenous capacity.
Figure 11: Reduction in energy demand in DSM scenario.
Figure 10: Reduction in Primary Requirements from BAU scenario (by fuel)

Page15
 In 2030, the avoided total endogenous
capacity in DSM is 3971 MW.
Key Outcomes
 There is significant opportunity for energy
efficiency implementation within most of the
demand sectors
 The greatest energy demand reduction can
be observed in the decrease of the Residen-
tial Sector, which will also considerably re-
duce the global warming potential
 DSM represents a policy where behavioural
change plays a key role and needs to be sup-
ported by governmental incentives and com-
plex infrastructural changes.
Figure 12: Avoided endogenous capacity additions through DSM implementation iny Electricity Generation
Processes)

Page16
New Policy: Meeting 2020 Com-
mitments and Beyond
Ireland’s contributions to the EU’s 202020 goals
are to have 16% of their energy come from re-
newable sources and have a 20% increase in
efficiency from 2001-2005 levels.
To do this they are relying on the increase of
energy for heating to 12% from renewable
sources. However, heating demand is not within
the scope of this project, due to the lack of user
level information.
Ireland has set a target of having 40% of their
electricity generated from renewable sources by
2020. 90% of that is expected to come from
wind [3].
Assumptions
For this project, five different sub-scenarios
have been selected to visualize Ireland’s policy
measures toward their 2020 goals and beyond.
Most of the scenarios are based on the 202020
policies and an additional sub-scenario was cre-
ated to show the effects of the introduction of
offshore energy harnessing capacity, in line with
the government’s stated goals of 4.5 GW of
offshore wind and 1.5 GW of ocean energy.
REFIT2 and REFIT3
 The additional electricity generation capacity
from renewables will be primarily met with
the new feed-in tariff programs, REFIT2 and
REFIT3, which focus on onshore wind, hydro,
and landfill gas and Biomass, respectively.
 REFIT2 [7] was approved in January of 2012
and is restricted to the construction of 4000
MWe, with no plant being larger than 125
MW.
 REFIT3 [8] was approved in late 2011 and is
open to applicants to create up to 310 MW
of biomass generation by 2015, largely con-
sisting of CHP plants.
 While both encouraged the building of re-
newable energy capacity by providing pref-
erential price support for electricity coming
from the newly constructed generation ca-
pacity, these programs have individual appli-
cation of processes and pricing. The intended
support levels in 2010 are shown in Table 2.
 The REFIT schemes have stipulations that the
renewable sources must be built by 2015 and
it was assumed that the total capacity of
each scheme would be met and available in
2015.
 REFIT3 was simple to implement, because
the capacity categories were clearly de-
scribed.
 The efficiencies for these technologies were
taken from the IEA. [9]
 The REFIT2 capacity was split a few different
ways as follows based on theoretical capaci-
ties are shown in Table 3 [10]
Anaerobic Digester High Efficiency CHP 50 MW
Biomass High Efficiency CHP 100 MW
Biomass Combustion (including peat co-firing) 160 MW
Total 310 MW
Table 1: Total energy generation approved through REFIT3

Page17
Transportation
 Ireland will reduce emissions from transpor-
tation by increasing the amount of electrified
vehicles to 10% of the fleet in 2020 and re-
quiring the level of biofuels in the fuel mix to
be 4% in 2010 and increasing gradually until
2020
 The government has also committed to 6%
biofuels in the fuel mix in 2013
 The electrification will be supported by tax
breaks for buyers of battery electric vehicles
and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
 The share of passenger kilometers for Road
Private Car fueled by electricity was in-
creased to 10% and the share of public pas-
senger services was increased to 5%, to ac-
count for the electrification of some taxis
and buses.
 The increase in fuel share of ethanol for Road
Freight, Road Private Car, and Public Passen-
ger Services are shown in Table 4.
Technology Category
Price
(€/MWh)
REFIT2
Onshore wind > 5MW 66.35
≤5MW 68.68
Hydro ≤ 5MW 83.81
Landfill Gas Biomass 81.49
REFIT3
AD CHP ≤ 500 kWe 150
> 500 kWe 130
AD ≤ 500 kWe 110
(non CHP) > 500 kWe 100
Biomass CHP ≤ 1500 kWe 140
> 1500 kWe 120
Biomass Combustion
(non-CHP)
Energy crops 95
Other biomass 85
Table 2: Direct comparison of REFIT2 and REFIT3 support levels.
Capacity Reasoning
Onshore Wind 3675 MW
(2015)
Remainder of REFIT2 capacity of 2015
6000 MW
(2020)
Government goal of 2020
Hydro 20 MW
(2015)
Ireland is focusing on micro hydro, so the
capacity gain is likely to be small
Landfill Gas 304.7 MW
(2015)
Based on LFG feasibility study
1
Table 3: REFIT2: capacity categorization

Page18
Efficiency Measures
 Ireland will have national efficiently increase
of 20%, meaning a 20% reduction in demand
from the average level from 2001-2005. This
includes an internal goal of the government
to achieve 33% in the public sector [11]. They
will achieve through education, investing in
retrofitting large buildings, creating green
procurement standards, installing energy ef-
ficient lighting and other measures, which
are put forth in their National Energy Effi-
ciency Action Plan (NEEAP).
 The average demand for each sector for the
years 2001 -2005 was calculated based on
SEAI’s Energy Balance
 The Energy Intensities for the Commercial
and Private Services sectors were deter-
mined by taking 80% and 66%, respectively,
of the average demand from 2001-2005 for
each of the sectors and dividing by the pro-
jected population in that year.
 For the Residential Sector, the projected
savings in the year 2020 was taken from
NEEAP and subtracted from the BAU forecast
20/20/20
 The above scenarios were combined to form
an overall picture of how the policies that
have been put into place will help Ireland
meet its commitments.
Offshore Energy
 The offshore technologies can, and will,
contribute greatly to the sustainable energy
future of Ireland, but no concrete policies
have been put into place to encourage their
implementation and there is great uncertain-
ty surrounding the availability and cost of
tidal and wave energy technologies.
 Ireland is very interested the prospect of
offshore energy. The government has stated
in the past that they would like to have 500
MW of wave and tidal energy by 2020 [2];
however, there is some doubt that these
technologies will not be ready for utility level
deployment until after 2020
 Similarly, there is potential for offshore wind
to contribute to renewable energy goals,
even with the existing levels of technology
 A draft of the Offshore Renewable Energy
Development Plant (ORDEP) is currently un-
der public review and preliminary environ-
mental impact assessments have been car-
ried out. This plan envisions 1500 MW of
ocean energy and 4500 MW of offshore wind
by 2030
20/20/20+Offshore
 This scenario combines the renewable capac-
ity additions and demand transformations of
the 20/20/20 set up with the additional off-
shore generation that the government has
envisioned of wave, tidal and offshore wind.
Year 2010 2013 2016 2020 2030 2040
% Biofuels 4 6 8 10 15 19
Table 4: Predicted growth of ethanol share in the transport sector 2010-2040

Page19
Results
Figure 13: Electricity Transformation under REFIT 2 and 3
16,2% 2,1%
0,4%
4,8%
55,9%
1,0%
8,8%
4,5%
6,4%
Wind Wave
Refinery Feedstocks Peat
Natural Gas Hydro
Bitumen Biomass
Biogas
Figure 14: Electricity Generation Fuel Inputs under
202020+Offshore scenario in the year 2020
13,1% 0,4%
5,1%
59,4%
1,1%
9,3%
4,7%
6,8%
Wind Refinery Feedstocks
Peat Natural Gas
Hydro Bitumen
Biomass Biogas
Figure 15: Electricity Generation Fuel Inputs under
202020 scenario in the year 2020
InputEnergyContent(MillionGJ)

Page20
Transformation
As seen in Figure 13, the feed-in tariffs have the
power to momentarily reduce the use of certain
conventional fuels in the total energy mix, most
notably eliminating Residual Fuel Oil between
2010 and 2027 and delaying large growth in
diesel until 2030.These effects are more clearly
seen when comparing the Electricity generation
input fuel mixes for 202020 and
202020+Offshore in Figure 15 and Figure 14,
respectively. Wind and other renewables cut
into the natural gas and coal that are the pre-
dominate sources of generation. It is interesting
to note that neither of the scenarios achieves
the goal of 40% of electricity from renewables,
with 25% for 202020 and 30% for
202020+offshore. Applying the REFIT 2 and 3
schemes shows an increase in the transfor-
mation capacity of Renewables growing by
200% from 2010 to 2040. With the REFIT2 sce-
nario, the contribution share of wind to total
electricity generation increases from 3.7% to
11.4% by 2040. A significant increase in Biomass
contribution to total electricity generation is
also seen, from 2.5% to 7.6%.
Demand
As expected, Figure 16 shows how the measures
taken in the transportation sector replace some
gasoline and diesel consumption with biofuels
and electricity, but as the differences Figure 17
show, simply electrifying part of the transporta-
tion system, does not improve the energy situa-
tion alone – it has to be coupled with an in-
crease in electricity generation from renewa-
bles. The introduction of wind and biofuels to
electricity generation allows the replacement of
some oil products and a reduction in energy
derived from coal and natural gas. This is an
indication that planning for further renewables
capacity is necessary.
The effects of Transportation and Efficiency can
be seen on demand in Figure 17. While the cu-
mulative 202020 scenarios show a decline in
energy requirements, the Transportation sce-
nario actually uses more because the energy
intensities of electricity and biofuels is lower
than conventional petrol and diesel.
Diesel
Electricity
Ethanol
Gasoline
Jet Kerosene
LPG
Residual Fuel Oil
Demand: Energy Demand Final Units
Scenario: RES-T2020 vs. BAU
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
MillionGigajoules
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
-50
-55
-60
-65
Figure 16: Energy Demand in the Transportation Sector

Page21
Figure 18: Energy Mix under 202020 Scenario in the year 2020
Total energy demanded is dominated by non-
electricity uses in all of the scenarios, with elec-
tricity accounting for around 20%, as seen for
the year 2020 in Figure 18. In the 202020 sce-
nario, the largest expansions are in Diesel and
Jet Kerosene, which account for most of the
growth in demand. This indicates that for ad-
vancements to be sustainable, other aspects of
the transportation sector, such as aviation, need
to be attended to. The model could partially
overlook this, as it does not account for the
effects of the European carbon market. It is also
difficult to curtail the demand for aviation be-
cause Ireland is an island and planes play a big
role in the movement of people and goods.
3% 2%
13%
9%
10%
9%19%
27%
2%
1% 2% 3%
Energy Demanded Final Units
Residual Fuel Oil Peat
Natural Gas Kerosene
Jet Kerosene Gasoline
Electricity Diesel
Coal Bituminous Coal Anthracite
Biomass All Others2020 = 457 PJ
All Others
Biogas
Biomass
Bitumen
Crude Oil
Diesel
Ethanol
Gasoline
Hydro
Natural Gas
Peat
Wind
Demand: Energy Demand Primary Units
Scenario: RES-T2020 vs. BAU
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
All Others
Biogas
Biomass
Bitumen
Crude Oil
Diesel
Ethanol
Gasoline
Hydro
Natural Gas
Peat
Wind
Demand: Energy Demand Primary Units
Scenario: 202020 vs. BAU
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
MillionGigajoules
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
Figure 17: Changes in Primary Energy for the Transport Sector with Transport Policy alone and with additional renewable energy

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
Page22
Key Outcomes
 Electricity is only 20% of Ireland’s energy
demand, yet it is receiving the most atten-
tion for meeting the 202020 goals.
 Based on this model of the policies Ireland
has set forward, they will not meet their
202020 goals; however:
o This model does not directly consider
heating demand or generation which
will have impact on the overall target
o This is not entirely unexpected as Ire-
land has stated that its NEEAP is not suf-
ficient enough to meet the efficiency
targets. [11]
 Policies are most effective when used in
tandem with each other and their effects on
each other must be accounted for
 The Renewable Energy capacity additions
become more significant as the growth of
demand is slowed or reversed.
 The ability of Ireland to meet its goals may
hinge on the development timeframe and
cost of ocean energies.
All Others
Biomass
Coal Anthracite
Coal Bituminous
Diesel
Electricity
Gasoline
Jet Kerosene
Kerosene
Natural Gas
Peat
Residual Fuel Oil
Demand: Energy Demand Final Units: Energy Only
Scenario: 202020
2010 2020 2030 2040
MillionGigajoules
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Figure 19: Energy Mix under 202020

Page23
Business as Usual
The global warming potential (GWP) in 2010
summed up to approx. 24.41 million tonnes of
CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) and is expected to grow
to 37.3 million tCO2e in 2030 and more than
double to 48.3 million tCO2e by 2040, equivalent
to an annual growth of 2.3%, if things continue
the way they are going so far. The almost con-
stant trend in industry is due to the offset
caused by decreasing energy intensity, despite
the increase in activity level.
The greatest global warming potential can be
traced back to the Residential and Transport
sectors that add up to 31.2% and 47.8%, respec-
tively by 2030. Though the Residential sector
reaches its peak of global warming potential
share in 2020 with 31.8%, the rapid increase of
the Transport sector offsets this growing share.
Throughout all years, oil products make up the
greatest proportion of the global warming po-
tential growing up to the share of 73.7% from
the total production of 37.3 million tCO2e in
2030. This can be easily explained by the use of
oil across all sectors, taking a great part in satis-
fying the residential and transport energy needs
(including electricity and heating).
Figure 21: Projection of GHG emmision in the BAU scenario 2010-2040
Figure 20: Projection of tonnes of CO2 Equivalent and %-share of total emissions by demand sector 2010-2040
2010 2020 2030 2040
m tonnes
CO2 Eq
%-
share
m tonnes
CO2 Eq
%-
share
m tonnes
CO2 Eq
%-
share
m tonnes
CO2 Eq.
%-
share
Industry 3.6 15.1 3.7 12.5 3.9 10.5 4.2 8.6
Residential 7.7 31.9 9.5 31.8 11.6 31.2 14.2 29.3
Services 2.3 9.4 2.6 8.7 3.4 9.1 4.8 10.0
Transport 9.8 40.7 13.4 44.7 17.9 47.8 24.8 51.4
A & F 0.7 3.0 0.7 2.3 0.5 1.4 0.3 0.7
TOTAL 24.1 29.9 37.3 48.3

Conclusion
Page24
The overall need for natural gas is also great and
is 3.3 times larger in 2030 than in 1995 (1.6
times larger than in 2010). The proportion from
biomass, a constant 0.1%, is almost negligible.
Looking at the breakdown of the fuels, it is clear
that diesel accounts for most of the oil needed,
followed by kerosene and gasoline adding to
35%, 13.6% and 10.43% respectively in 2030.
The large demand of diesel can be justified by
the increasing preference of diesel over gaso-
line, especially in transport.
Figure 22: Global Warming potential in BAU projection by grouped fuel, 2010-2040
Figure 23: Global Warming Potential in BAU projection by fuel, 2010-2040

Conclusion
Page25
Mitigation Results
Looking at the historical demand between 1995
and 2001, an increase in oil can be observed,
which is then followed by heavy fluctuations
between 2001 and 2010. It is apparent that the
use of oil products has the greatest effect on
global warming, mainly because of high demand
for oil to satisfy energy needs.
If all policy scenarios are implemented
(“202020+offshore”), a great reduction GWP
can be observed with a total savings of 236.8
million tCO2e from 2010 to 2040. The measures
“DSM”, “Efficiency 2020” and “Transporta-
tion2020”, each are individually effective.
Figure 24: Historical energy demand by fuel 1995-2010
Figure 25: Projected Global Warming Potential for all scenarios 2010-2040

Conclusion
Page26
Key Outcomes
 The scenarios “Efficiency2020” and “DSM”
have a very similar improving effect on
global warming potential, while “Transpor-
tation” shows a considerable smaller effect
than either.
 If implemented individually, the GWP
would only be between 75 - 94% of BAU by
2030. However, if implemented simultane-
ously, the global warming potential in 2030
would be under 75% of BAU
 Costs would play a key role in the imple-
mentation of these scenarios for GHG re-
duction.
Figure 26: Global Warming Potential when all scenarios are implemented "202020+offshore". As can be seen from this figure,
the GHG reduction in the residential sector, followed by the transport sector.

Conclusion
Page27
Conclusion
Ireland is currently facing major challenges con-
cerning its future in terms of energy production
and sustainability, both with regards to the se-
curity of supply and the impact that the current
intense use of fossil fuels is having on the envi-
ronment.
Moreover, The Business as Usual Scenario has
shown how if strong policies are not put in place
in the near future, Ireland will be in a very diffi-
cult position for the commitments it has made
to the European Community and for its future
potential economic growth.
However, The Demand Side Management sce-
nario has shown like even small changes in
terms of optimizations of the peak loads and
decrease of the energy demand could bring
important benefits.
In addition to this, the Republic also shows a
tremendous potential in terms of renewable
sources, for the most part coming from the
wind, both onshore and offshore, and the ex-
ploitation of the energy deriving from the sea,
such as tidal and wave energy.
These technologies would represent a unique
opportunity for the country to both reduce its
dependency from oil and gas import as well as
to satisfy the internal increasing demand of
electricity while reducing the environmental
impact deriving from the GHG emitted in the
atmosphere.
The only actual limit to the implementation of
these promising technologies is the early stage
of technological and economic development, on
which the Republic of Ireland should invest
more R&D resources in order to make them
become a reality in the nearest future.
If all these efforts are put in place, together with
an increasing share of electrification of the
transportation sector, a brighter and more sus-
tainable future for the Republic of Ireland will
be likely to happen.
All in all, this project underlines the fact that
three main strategies form the building blocks
towards a sustainable energy and resource use,
i.e. towards a sustainable and energy secure
future: tackling energy demand, energy efficien-
cy and full or partial substitution with renewa-
ble energies.

Looking Forward
Page28
Looking Forward
Being an Island, Ireland is and will most likely
always be dependent to a certain degree on the
import of fossil fuels that offer a cheap and reli-
able source of energy for base-load generation.
As a matter of fact, even though tidal energy
could in the future represent a potential source
of constant generation, the overall capacity and
the real potential application of this technology
in the short time can’t be estimated.
For this reason, different forms of constant en-
ergy supply should be investigated in order to
reduce this dependency.
One interesting option to be addressed could be
in the near future to implement a more efficient
and extensive system of pumped hydro storage
that could absorb the excess of energy electrici-
ty produced by wind during the low demand
periods and give it back during the peak-loads
hours.
Finally, another important potential evaluation
to be addressed would be to reduce the interna-
tional traffic caused by flights and boats be-
tween Ireland and England, which are fossil
fuels-based, by evaluating the construction of
the Irish Sea Fixed Crossing, [12] a proposed
tunnel that would connect the two island.
This would allow to dramatically increasing the
traffic of people and merchandise that are
transported by electric trains.

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Annex
Pagei
ANNEX - I
Current Account – Historical Data References
Key Assumptions
Population [13]
GDP [13]
Income [14]
Demand
Industry
Activity Level [14]
Final Energy Intensity [15], [14]
Residential
Activity Level [13]
Final Energy Intensity [15]
Fuel Share [15]
Commercial Services
Activity Level [13]
Total Energy [15]
Public Services
Activity Level [13]
Total Energy [15]
Transport
Activity Level [13], [16], [17], [18], [19]
Agriculture and Fishing
Activity Level [14]
Final Energy Intensity [15], [14]
Fuel Share [15]
Transformation
Transmission and Distribution Losses [15]
Pumped Hydro
Exogenous Capacity [20], [22]
Maximum Availability [20], [23]
Capacity Credit [23]
Historical Production [15]
Process Efficiency [15], [20]
Dispatch Order [24]
Variable OM Cost [25]
Capital Cost [25]

Annex
Pageii
Electricity Generation
Exogenous Capacity [22], [23]
Maximum Availability [23]
Capacity Credit [22], [23]
Process Efficiency [26]
Dispatch Order [24]
Variable OM Cost [27], [28], [29]
Capital Cost [28], [29]
Oil Refining
Exogenous Capacity [21]
Maximum Availability [21]
Process Efficiency [15] , [21]
Peak Load Curve [22]

Annex
Pageiii
ANNEX - II
Business As Usual - Future Projections/Growth Values Reference
Key Assumptions
Population Based on Historical Trends
GDP Based on Historical Trends
Income Based on Historical Trends
Demand
Industry Activity Level [22]
Commercial Services Activity Level [14]
Total Energy Based on Historical Trends
Public Services Activity Level [14]
Total Energy [32]
Transport Activity Level [16]
Agriculture and Fishing Activity Level [14]
Final Energy Intensity Based on Historical Trends

Annex
Pageiv
ANNEX - III
Demand Side Management – Growth Values Reference
Demand
Industry Final Energy Intensity [23]
Residential Final Energy Intensity [23]
Commercial Services Total Energy [23]
Public Services Total Energy [23]
Peak Load
Curve
Peak Load Savings [23]

Annex
Pagev
ANNEX - IV
Demand Side Management – Growth Values Reference
Transformation
REFIT 2 New Capacity Target [10], [7]
REFIT 3 New Capacity Target [8]
Offshore New Capacity Target [3]
Demand
Efficiency Reduction Targets [24]
Transportation Fuel Share Goals [25], [26]

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