1. Social Predictors of Intention to Prepare for Volcanic Hazards case study: Merapi Volcano, Indonesia Saut Sagala PhD Student, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University Supervisor: Prof Norio Okada Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University Syakai Bosai Seminar, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University – Sept 7-8, 2008
4. Contributing Factors Negative Outcome Expectancy Positive Outcome Expectancy Community Participation Trust Collective Efficacy Empowerment Critical Awareness Action Coping Self Efficacy Sense of Community Articulating Problem Social Support Personal Community Institutional
5. Model in New Zealand P P C C I I Source: Paton et al 2008 0.37 0.98 0.99 0.052 R 2 NFI GFI RMSEA
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8. History of Eruptions 1994 2006 year 66 2 1930 1369 1953 64 loss of life 1997 6 missing
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10. x 2 = 1896.3, df = 889 Social Predictors: 1 st Model 12% 0.119 0.438 0.586 0.779 0.070 0.070 R 2 NFI CFI GFI RMR RMSEA
11. x 2 = 683.9, df = 354 Social Predictors: 2 nd Model 26% 0.258 0.621 0.764 0.877 0.053 0.054 R 2 NFI CFI GFI RMR RMSEA
12. x 2 = 1247.5, df = 645 Social Predictors: 3 rd Model 27% 0.268 0.501 0.664 0.832 0.054 0.054 R 2 NFI CFI GFI RMR RMSEA
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14. Conclusion… so far High influence by factors at personal / household level Community and institutional factors play role too Construction of model of social predictors of intention to prepare (model 2 and 3)
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