Steve Barsh Of Dream It Ventures On De Risking For Wharton Entrepreneurship Club February 2009

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Presentation given by Steve Barsh of DreamIt Ventures for the Wharton Entrepreneurship Club February 2009 on techniques for identifying key assumptions and de-risking them early in a capital-efficient manner to lower risks and increase value.

Business Économie & finance

De-Risking and
Acceleration

Steve Barsh, Managing Partner
steveb@dreamitventures.com * 215.888.2101
dreamitventures.com

barshbits.com sbarsh

1
Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Agenda

• DreamIt Ventures

• De-risking & discovery

• Q&A

2
Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Help great people
with great ideas
build great companies
• 3 month Startup
Accelerator
• Pre-Seed investment
• Expertise
• Mentorship
3
Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Entrepreneurs Receive

Mentoring Professional Services
Expert Speakers Team Members

Community

Software + Resources
Capital

4
Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Premises & Observations

• Money too early
• Validation from investors
• Key risks
• Out-of-box techniques
• De-risk before
• Pitching
• Building the product

5
Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

3 – 7 Key Assumptions

6
Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

De-Risking Goals

• Convert assumptions into
knowledge
• At lowest cost
• As quickly as possible
• Decrease assumptions
to increase value
• Consume intellectual capital
before signiﬁcant outside
capital
• Succeed or fail quickly
7
Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Common Assumptions

Positioning / dierentiation
Demand
Market size
Feature set
Competition
Pricing / business model
Sales / adoption cycle
Team
Product development
Execution
Marketing
Financials forecasts
Financial needs
Enterprise value
Dreamitventures.com
8 Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Common Problems

Key assumptions not
captured and no time
table
Little discussion with
potential customers
Little primary research
Weak demand
Pricing a guess
Marketing ﬁeld of
dreams
Strategy alignment

Dreamitventures.com
9 Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Stop Waving, Start Pointing!

Dreamitventures.com
10 Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

100% Sure?

• Plans
• Presentations
• Pitches
• Financial models
• Forecasts
• Estimates
• Things with numbers or
graphs
Dreamitventures.com
11 Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Experiment

• Hypotheses
• Prove or Disprove
• Build -- Release,
measure, learn,
iterate
• Research
• Valid proxies

12
Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Key Investment Questions

• Key assumptions, dependencies,
and timetable?

• Evidence we are looking for?

• Assumptions de-risked before
further investment?

• Success criteria (e.g., market
uptake; revenue; impact,
ﬁnancials, etc.)?

Dreamitventures.com
13 Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

3 Main Takeaways

1. Key assumptions
2. Experiments
3. Convert assumptions
into knowledge

14
Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

More Info

• Redeye VC Blog: Failing Cheaper by Josh
Kopelman, First Round Capital.

• Common Mistakes Made by Entrepreneurs by
Mark Henricks.

• How To: Raise Money in a Down Economy by
Eric Ries at KPCB.

• Discovery-Driven Growth: A Breakthrough
Process to Reduce Risk and Seize
Opportunity (March 2009) by Rita McGrath and
Ian MacMillan (Wharton)

15
Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Agenda

• DreamIt Ventures

• De-risking discovery

• QA

16
Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

De-Risking and
Acceleration

Steve Barsh, Managing Partner
steveb@dreamitventures.com * 215.888.2101
dreamitventures.com

barshbits.com sbarsh

Supporters

17
Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

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Steve Barsh Of Dream It Ventures On De Risking For Wharton Entrepreneurship Club February 2009

1. De-Risking and Acceleration Steve Barsh, Managing Partner steveb@dreamitventures.com * 215.888.2101 dreamitventures.com barshbits.com sbarsh 1 Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

3. Help great people with great ideas build great companies • 3 month Startup Accelerator • Pre-Seed investment • Expertise • Mentorship 3 Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

4. Entrepreneurs Receive Mentoring Professional Services Expert Speakers Team Members Community Software + Resources Capital 4 Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

5. Premises & Observations • Money too early • Validation from investors • Key risks • Out-of-box techniques • De-risk before • Pitching • Building the product 5 Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

7. De-Risking Goals • Convert assumptions into knowledge • At lowest cost • As quickly as possible • Decrease assumptions to increase value • Consume intellectual capital before signiﬁcant outside capital • Succeed or fail quickly 7 Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

8. Common Assumptions Positioning / dierentiation Demand Market size Feature set Competition Pricing / business model Sales / adoption cycle Team Product development Execution Marketing Financials forecasts Financial needs Enterprise value Dreamitventures.com 8 Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

9. Common Problems Key assumptions not captured and no time table Little discussion with potential customers Little primary research Weak demand Pricing a guess Marketing ﬁeld of dreams Strategy alignment Dreamitventures.com 9 Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

11. 100% Sure? • Plans • Presentations • Pitches • Financial models • Forecasts • Estimates • Things with numbers or graphs Dreamitventures.com 11 Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

12. Experiment • Hypotheses • Prove or Disprove • Build -- Release, measure, learn, iterate • Research • Valid proxies 12 Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

13. Key Investment Questions • Key assumptions, dependencies, and timetable? • Evidence we are looking for? • Assumptions de-risked before further investment? • Success criteria (e.g., market uptake; revenue; impact, ﬁnancials, etc.)? Dreamitventures.com 13 Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

15. More Info • Redeye VC Blog: Failing Cheaper by Josh Kopelman, First Round Capital. • Common Mistakes Made by Entrepreneurs by Mark Henricks. • How To: Raise Money in a Down Economy by Eric Ries at KPCB. • Discovery-Driven Growth: A Breakthrough Process to Reduce Risk and Seize Opportunity (March 2009) by Rita McGrath and Ian MacMillan (Wharton) 15 Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

17. De-Risking and Acceleration Steve Barsh, Managing Partner steveb@dreamitventures.com * 215.888.2101 dreamitventures.com barshbits.com sbarsh Supporters 17 Dreamitventures.com Copyright © 2008-2009 by DreamIt Ventures LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Steve Barsh Of Dream It Ventures On De Risking For Wharton Entrepreneurship Club February 2009

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