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Making Sense of the Real Estate Market of 2009 Weichert, Alpine/Closter’s Market Seminar  A complimentary service of Weichert, Realtors Each WEICHERT® franchised office is independently owned and operated. ®
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What are you hearing about the economy?
The ‘recession’ officially started in December 2007 Source: Federal Reserve
What about the Housing Market…?
Real Estate  is  Local! Know the Market!
[object Object]
Market Confidence Meter ,[object Object]
Market Confidence Meter ,[object Object],[object Object]
Market Confidence Meter ,[object Object]
Market Confidence Meter ,[object Object]
Market Confidence Meter ,[object Object]
Sample Market Absorption Rate Calculation 108 current active listings  12 reported sales in last 30 days = 9 months  absorption rate Anytown, NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
Market Scale for Supply & Demand High Supply/Low Demand Low Supply/High Demand Normal Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values.  As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually.   Beyond 12 month’s absorption rate, we cannot statistically validate the annual depreciation in a market .  Market Absorption in Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Normal
% Appreciation in 5 Year Increments Source: Brookings Papers 9/08
Available Listings ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],WEEK ENDING BERGEN HUDSON  PASSAIC
Foreclosure Totals ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],WEEK ENDING BERGEN HUDSON  PASSAIC
Where is the bottom of the market?
1.  Real Estate is Local Top Five Rules for Understanding the Real Estate Market: 2.  Real Estate is Local 3.  Real Estate is Local 4.  Real Estate is Local 5.  Real Estate is Local
We’re Here to Help ,[object Object],Peter Lafaris, P.C. Attorney at Law
Sara Jane Brine, Manager Strategies for Buying
1. Understand the Local Market That You are Buying into…
Sample Market Absorption Rate 107 current active listings  4 reported sales in last 30 days = 24.3 months  absorption rate Anytown., NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
Understand the Market That You are Buying into… I want to live in Closter because of the schools and the easy commute to NYC
Market Absorption Rate  77 current active listings  8 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days = 9.62 months  absorption rate Closter, NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
Market Absorption Rate  56 current active listings  8 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days = 7.0 months  absorption rate River Vale, NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
Market Absorption Rate  52 current active listings  18 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days = 2.8 months  absorption rate Dumont, NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
2. ‘I am going to time the Market and buy at the peak inventory level  and  when no one else buys…’ Source: MLS
3. ‘I am going to wait until the price comes down further  and then  make an offer…’ Source: MLS
Factors to consider when buying and selling… Source: MLS Inventory(supply and demand) Interest Rates
Interest Rates Remain Low Source: otteau
Seeing the Opportunity.
Seeing the Opportunity. ,[object Object],Prices Rates High Mid-Range Low A. In 2005, the V would look somewhat like this one, where prices were on the high end of the scale and rates were in the lower range.
Seizing the Opportunity. ,[object Object],Prices Rates High Mid-Range Low
Ryan Delia,  Gold Services Manager/ Loan Officer Financial Benefits and Process of Home-Ownership.
As of 10:00 a.m. today , there are just  65 days, 14 hours  until the expiration of the $8,000 first time buyer tax credit!
Many buyers say….  ‘I don’t want to buy a house and then watch it drop in value!’
The Real Estate Market is not like the Stock Market. If you buy $400,000 in stock you need $400,000 in cash. If you buy a $400,000 home you need only $14,000 down-payment.
  Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $281,000 Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1,590  Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value 1st Year -3% $305,970 2nd Year 0% $305,970 3rd Year 1% $309,030 4th Year 3% $318,301 5th Year 5% $334,216 5 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $5,216 Tax Benefit   Rent  @ $1600/mo 1st Year $5,000 $19,200 2nd Year $5,000 $19,200 3rd Year $5,000 $19,200 4th Year $5,000 $19,200 5th Year $5,000 $19,200 5 Year Total $25,000 $96,000 Total $30,216 Create Equity v  Pay Rent
Incentive From the Government First-time homebuyers can receive a tax credit up to $8000!
Tax Credit Overview Amount Ten percent of the cost of home, not to exceed $8,000 Property Any single family residence that will be used as a principal residence Refundable Reduces income tax liability for the year of purchase Income Limit Adjusted gross income of $75,000 single or $150,000 joint tax returns First-Time Must not have owned a principal residence in 3 years prior to purchase
Tax Credit FAQs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How much house can I really afford?
[object Object],Establish  Your  Buying Power
Sara Jane Brine, Manager Strategies for Selling
Understand the Market That You are Selling Out of … I live in Norwood
Market Absorption Rate  Comparable Properties 52 current active listings  6 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days = 8.66 month  absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. Norwood, NJ
‘ Great speech but does it really work?
2 .  The Effect of  Staging  on the Value of a  Your  Home .
The process of preparing homes for sale regardless of  Price, Location, or Condition To achieve the  maximum  sales price in  the  minimum   marketing time. The  GOAL  is to appeal to the broadest range of  BUYERS .
Non-Staged The Way You Live In Your Home…
…  And The Way We Market And Sell A House Are Two Different Things. Staged
“ The Investment in Home Staging  is  Always Less  than Your  First Price Reduction!”
Non-Staged Buyers Only Know What They See …
…  Not The Way It Is Going To Be. Staged
Why  Promote  Home Staging  ? The average  increase in sales   price  of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is  6.9% . That is an  additional $31,050  on a  $450,000  sale.
The average  marketing time  of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is  80% less . Why  Promote  Home Staging  ?
3. The Effect of ‘ Pre-Inspection’  on the Sale of  Your  Home.
What is  ‘ Pre-Inspection?’
Home Inspection WHAT DOES PRE-INSPECTION INCLUDE?  The standard home inspector's report will review the condition of the home's heating system, central air conditioning system (temperature permitting), interior plumbing and electrical systems; the roof, attic, and visible insulation; walls, ceilings, floors, windows and doors; the foundation, basement, and visible structure.   
PRE-LISTING Home Inspection DOESN’T THE BUYER DO THE HOME INSPECTION?
All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control. Who is in control? Right Price Right Staging All Repairs are done in advance. Offer a Home Warranty to the buyer..
PRE-LISTING Home Inspection Data on where most sales fall apart: attorney review, home inspection. Fall Thru Percentage 2007: 26% Fall Thru Percentage 2008: 10.2% .
Home Improvements I am moving out of the house, I do not want spend too much money to move. Or I just spent $$ on a new kitchen, I want $$$$$$ back on that investment when I move.
 
 
Reality of today’s market is that you will see the return on your investment not in an inflated sales price but in retaining the highest percentage of your list price and staying on the market the fewest # of days. Please consult with your Realtor & staging professional as to which improvements you should finish to make your home the most salable.
“ Solving Today’s Market” Foreclosures, short sales and the buyers market A complimentary First-Time Home Buyer Seminar hosted by Weichert, Realtors ® Each WEICHERT® franchised office is independently owned and operated. Weichert, Realtors ® Alpine/Closter Office Are there real estate opportunities that are right for you now?
Definitions ,[object Object],*Defined by NAR
Definitions *Defined by NAR ,[object Object]
Definitions ,[object Object],* Defined by Realtytrac.com
Short Sales and REOs ,[object Object],Source: Realtor Magazine online 3/09
Timeline for Short Sales, Foreclosure and REO Sales Homeowner defaults on loan (60 or more days in arrears) Lender sends Homeowner Notice of Default Property goes to Sherriff Sale/Auction If no other winning bids, Bank buys back property at Sherriff Sale/Auction Property is now  Bank Owned (REO) and listed for sale. A short sale or loan modification may happen within this time period, stopping the property from going into foreclosure. Pre-Foreclosure Foreclosure REO
It’s All Relative… ,[object Object],[object Object]
A Good Deal? ,[object Object],The answer is not so straightforward. It is a personal preference based upon the conditions you may find acceptable.
[object Object]
Are You a Good Match to  Purchase a Short Sale? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Considerations for  Purchasing a Short Sale ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Tips for a Successful Short Sale Transaction ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Realtor.org
Tips for a Successful Short Sale Transaction, cont’d ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Realtor.org
After You Make an Offer ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Lender’s Response ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why Might My Offer  Be Rejected? ,[object Object],Source: Realtor Magazine online 5/08
Opportunity ,[object Object],[object Object]
Defining the Market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Example #1 This represents a possible discount  of 33% below market value Source: MLS
Defining the Market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Example #2 This represents a possible discount  of 28.4% below market value Source: MLS
Defining the Market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Example #3 This represents a possible discount  of 11% below market value Source: MLS
Purchasing Foreclosure Properties
Considerations for Buying a Foreclosure Property ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Considerations for Buying a Foreclosure Property, cont’d ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Foreclosures Can Be Scary!
Beware… ,[object Object]
What About REOs? ,[object Object]
Advantages of Buying  an REO over a Foreclosure ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],* Bank will typically only address repairs needed by the municipality and/or buyer’s lender to settle.
REOs: Seeing the Property ,[object Object],[object Object]
REOs: Seeing the Property
Considerations for Buying  an REO Property ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Opportunity ,[object Object],[object Object]
Defining the Market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Insert Picture of property here Example #1 This represents a possible discount  of 33.7% below market value Source: MLS
Defining the Market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Example #2 This represents a possible discount  of 24.6% below market value Source: MLS
Purchasing in Today’s Market
A Good Deal? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Weichert Family of Companies What will a real estate company do for me?
Making Your Purchase as  Smooth as Possible Buying a home involves the careful coordination of many people. Choosing a real estate team  you can count on will make the process smoother and easier.
[object Object],The Weichert Difference ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],What Will a Weichert Agent Do for Me?
We’re Here to Help ,[object Object]
Resource and website list: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Resource and Website List ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Resource and Website List: ,[object Object],[object Object]
Resource and website list: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Good Luck with your Move!

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Closter Market Seminar

  • 1. Making Sense of the Real Estate Market of 2009 Weichert, Alpine/Closter’s Market Seminar A complimentary service of Weichert, Realtors Each WEICHERT® franchised office is independently owned and operated. ®
  • 2.
  • 3. What are you hearing about the economy?
  • 4. The ‘recession’ officially started in December 2007 Source: Federal Reserve
  • 5. What about the Housing Market…?
  • 6. Real Estate is Local! Know the Market!
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. Sample Market Absorption Rate Calculation 108 current active listings 12 reported sales in last 30 days = 9 months absorption rate Anytown, NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
  • 14. Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
  • 15. Market Scale for Supply & Demand High Supply/Low Demand Low Supply/High Demand Normal Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values. As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually. Beyond 12 month’s absorption rate, we cannot statistically validate the annual depreciation in a market . Market Absorption in Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Normal
  • 16. % Appreciation in 5 Year Increments Source: Brookings Papers 9/08
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. Where is the bottom of the market?
  • 20. 1. Real Estate is Local Top Five Rules for Understanding the Real Estate Market: 2. Real Estate is Local 3. Real Estate is Local 4. Real Estate is Local 5. Real Estate is Local
  • 21.
  • 22. Sara Jane Brine, Manager Strategies for Buying
  • 23. 1. Understand the Local Market That You are Buying into…
  • 24. Sample Market Absorption Rate 107 current active listings 4 reported sales in last 30 days = 24.3 months absorption rate Anytown., NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
  • 25. Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
  • 26. Understand the Market That You are Buying into… I want to live in Closter because of the schools and the easy commute to NYC
  • 27. Market Absorption Rate 77 current active listings 8 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days = 9.62 months absorption rate Closter, NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
  • 28. Market Absorption Rate 56 current active listings 8 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days = 7.0 months absorption rate River Vale, NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
  • 29. Market Absorption Rate 52 current active listings 18 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days = 2.8 months absorption rate Dumont, NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
  • 30. 2. ‘I am going to time the Market and buy at the peak inventory level and when no one else buys…’ Source: MLS
  • 31. 3. ‘I am going to wait until the price comes down further and then make an offer…’ Source: MLS
  • 32. Factors to consider when buying and selling… Source: MLS Inventory(supply and demand) Interest Rates
  • 33. Interest Rates Remain Low Source: otteau
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37. Ryan Delia, Gold Services Manager/ Loan Officer Financial Benefits and Process of Home-Ownership.
  • 38. As of 10:00 a.m. today , there are just 65 days, 14 hours until the expiration of the $8,000 first time buyer tax credit!
  • 39. Many buyers say…. ‘I don’t want to buy a house and then watch it drop in value!’
  • 40. The Real Estate Market is not like the Stock Market. If you buy $400,000 in stock you need $400,000 in cash. If you buy a $400,000 home you need only $14,000 down-payment.
  • 41.   Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $281,000 Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1,590 Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value 1st Year -3% $305,970 2nd Year 0% $305,970 3rd Year 1% $309,030 4th Year 3% $318,301 5th Year 5% $334,216 5 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $5,216 Tax Benefit   Rent @ $1600/mo 1st Year $5,000 $19,200 2nd Year $5,000 $19,200 3rd Year $5,000 $19,200 4th Year $5,000 $19,200 5th Year $5,000 $19,200 5 Year Total $25,000 $96,000 Total $30,216 Create Equity v Pay Rent
  • 42. Incentive From the Government First-time homebuyers can receive a tax credit up to $8000!
  • 43. Tax Credit Overview Amount Ten percent of the cost of home, not to exceed $8,000 Property Any single family residence that will be used as a principal residence Refundable Reduces income tax liability for the year of purchase Income Limit Adjusted gross income of $75,000 single or $150,000 joint tax returns First-Time Must not have owned a principal residence in 3 years prior to purchase
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  • 45. How much house can I really afford?
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  • 47. Sara Jane Brine, Manager Strategies for Selling
  • 48. Understand the Market That You are Selling Out of … I live in Norwood
  • 49. Market Absorption Rate Comparable Properties 52 current active listings 6 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days = 8.66 month absorption rate 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market. Norwood, NJ
  • 50. ‘ Great speech but does it really work?
  • 51. 2 . The Effect of Staging on the Value of a Your Home .
  • 52. The process of preparing homes for sale regardless of Price, Location, or Condition To achieve the maximum sales price in the minimum marketing time. The GOAL is to appeal to the broadest range of BUYERS .
  • 53. Non-Staged The Way You Live In Your Home…
  • 54. … And The Way We Market And Sell A House Are Two Different Things. Staged
  • 55. “ The Investment in Home Staging is Always Less than Your First Price Reduction!”
  • 56. Non-Staged Buyers Only Know What They See …
  • 57. … Not The Way It Is Going To Be. Staged
  • 58. Why Promote Home Staging ? The average increase in sales price of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 6.9% . That is an additional $31,050 on a $450,000 sale.
  • 59. The average marketing time of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 80% less . Why Promote Home Staging ?
  • 60. 3. The Effect of ‘ Pre-Inspection’ on the Sale of Your Home.
  • 61. What is ‘ Pre-Inspection?’
  • 62. Home Inspection WHAT DOES PRE-INSPECTION INCLUDE? The standard home inspector's report will review the condition of the home's heating system, central air conditioning system (temperature permitting), interior plumbing and electrical systems; the roof, attic, and visible insulation; walls, ceilings, floors, windows and doors; the foundation, basement, and visible structure.  
  • 63. PRE-LISTING Home Inspection DOESN’T THE BUYER DO THE HOME INSPECTION?
  • 64. All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control. Who is in control? Right Price Right Staging All Repairs are done in advance. Offer a Home Warranty to the buyer..
  • 65. PRE-LISTING Home Inspection Data on where most sales fall apart: attorney review, home inspection. Fall Thru Percentage 2007: 26% Fall Thru Percentage 2008: 10.2% .
  • 66. Home Improvements I am moving out of the house, I do not want spend too much money to move. Or I just spent $$ on a new kitchen, I want $$$$$$ back on that investment when I move.
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  • 69. Reality of today’s market is that you will see the return on your investment not in an inflated sales price but in retaining the highest percentage of your list price and staying on the market the fewest # of days. Please consult with your Realtor & staging professional as to which improvements you should finish to make your home the most salable.
  • 70. “ Solving Today’s Market” Foreclosures, short sales and the buyers market A complimentary First-Time Home Buyer Seminar hosted by Weichert, Realtors ® Each WEICHERT® franchised office is independently owned and operated. Weichert, Realtors ® Alpine/Closter Office Are there real estate opportunities that are right for you now?
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  • 75. Timeline for Short Sales, Foreclosure and REO Sales Homeowner defaults on loan (60 or more days in arrears) Lender sends Homeowner Notice of Default Property goes to Sherriff Sale/Auction If no other winning bids, Bank buys back property at Sherriff Sale/Auction Property is now Bank Owned (REO) and listed for sale. A short sale or loan modification may happen within this time period, stopping the property from going into foreclosure. Pre-Foreclosure Foreclosure REO
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  • 98. REOs: Seeing the Property
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  • 105. Weichert Family of Companies What will a real estate company do for me?
  • 106. Making Your Purchase as Smooth as Possible Buying a home involves the careful coordination of many people. Choosing a real estate team you can count on will make the process smoother and easier.
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  • 114. Good Luck with your Move!