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Technology assessment of China’s new
passenger car fleet and international
comparisons

中国2010年新乘用车节油技术应用情况分析
及国际比较

Hui He, Jun Tu
国际清洁交通委员会 何卉、涂军
January 2013
国际清洁交通委员会成员来自各国政府官员和专家


委员会目标是改善全球车辆、
船只、飞机以及燃油的能耗
和排放水平,以促进公共健
康、减缓气候变化效应。


2012年(印度)会议与会
者来自:美国、加拿大、
德国、日本、中国、印度
、墨西哥、韩国、巴西



                          2
18.5



        15.0

                13.0
                                    世界上主要的汽车市场就是我们
                                    开展工作的主要领域




                            4.2
                                     3.6
      3.3
                                                      2.8
                                                             1.6
   1.6
                                                                           1.0
   0.9




                                                                                  Slide 3	

                        Source: Ward’s Automotive
Background 背景
§  To support China to develop          §  对中国中长期轻型车油耗标
    mid-to-long term fuel                    准制订提供技术支持
    consumption standards for
    passenger cars                       §  中国油耗标准回顾
§  Regulatory history                     –  从2005年起制订并实施了
    –  China has been regulating new          三个阶段标准
       light-duty vehicle fuel economy
       since 2005.                         –  现行标准(第三阶段)去
    –  Current standards (phase 3)            年开始实施
       phased in last year.
    –  Auto industry development plan    §  节能与新能源汽车产业规划
       2012-2020 sets 5L/100km               2012-2020制订了第四阶段
§  ICCT’s role: based on experience         初步目标:5升/百公里
    from our US and EU technology
    and cost work, we’d like to          §  ICCT过去几年致力于欧盟达
    introduce a similar methodology          标成本曲线的研究,相似的
    to China to evaluate                     方法框架和模型可用于中国
    technologies and costs to meet
    the future targets.                      。基准技术水平研究是第
                                             一步。

                                                                4
Data and methodology 数据与方法
                                       PC Fleet 乘用车
                                                Import
                                                Fleet                           Domestic 国产车
                                                进口车
                                                      Domestic                   Lower
                                                                 Mini   Small           Medium Large           Minivan
Parameters        参数                                    Fleet                   medium                  SUV
                                                                 微型     小型               中型     大型              微客
                                                      国产全体                      中小型
Engine size (cc)         发动机排量 (cc)      100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
Curb weight (kg)         整备质量 (kg)       100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
Wheel base (mm)          轴距 (mm)         100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%      99%
Front track width (mm)   前轮距 (mm)        100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%    99%  100%    100%      98%
Rear track width (mm)    后轮距 (mm)        100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%    99%  100%    100%      98%
Power (HP)               功率 (HP)         100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%     98%     100%
HP (rpm)                 功率转速 (rpm)      100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%      99%
Torque (N.m)             扭矩 (N.m)        100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%    99%  100%    100%     100%
Torque (rpm)             扭距转速 (rpm)      100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%    99%  100%    100%      99%
Max speed (km/h)         最高车速 (km/h)      99%     97%      99%   100%    100%      100%    99%  100%     98%      98%
Accel speed 0-100km/h 0-100公里/时加速时间       34%     84%      32%    16%     27%       41%    59%    70%    26%       0%
Compression ratio        气缸压缩比            94%     99%      93%    84%     99%       98%    84%    96%    77%     100%
Drive train              传动系统            100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
Fuel type                燃油类型            100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
Transmission type        变速器类型           100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
No. of gears             变速器档位数          100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
Engine type              发动机类型           100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
Valve configuration      气门结构            100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
No. of cylinders         汽缸数             100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
Valve per cylinder       每汽缸气门数          100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
Fuel supply              供油方式            100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
Air intake               进气方式            100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
Valve timing             气门正时            100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
Valve lift               气门升程            100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
Fuel consumption (urban) 油耗 (市区)         100%    100%     100%   100%    100%      100%   100%  100%    100%     100%
Fuel consumption
(extraurban)             油耗 (郊区)         100% 100%       100%    100%    100%     100%   100%   100%    100%     100%
Fuel consumption
(combined)               油耗 (综合)         100% 100%       100%    100%    100%     100%   100%   100%    100%     100%    5
                                                                                                                         	

Emissions standard       排放标准            100% 100%       100%    100%    100%     100%   100%   100%    100%     100%
Technologies analyzed in this paper
                  主要节油技术一览及本研究涵盖的技术种类
                                                                         Potential CO2 Analyzed
                                                                          reduction!    in this
                             Technologies技术类别                            CO2 减排潜 report!
                                                                              力      本研究涵盖!
                         Low friction lubrication 低阻润滑油                      0.5%
                         Engine friction reduction 降低发动机阻力                   2-4%
 #                       Variable valve timing (and lift)可变气门正时和升程           4-6%          x
 #             Engine#   Cylinder deactivation 停缸                            5-6%
 #             发动机技术     Turbocharging 涡轮增压                                  2-5%          x
 #             #         Turbo, gasoline direct injection 增压汽油直喷            8-15%          x
 Powertrain#             Cooled EGR, turbo, GDI 冷却废气循环+增压汽油直喷               20-25%
传动系统                          Compression ignition diesel 柴油压燃              15-25%
#                             Digital valve actuation 数字气门驱动                5-10%
 #                            Early torque converter lock-up液力变矩器提早锁止        0.5%
           Transmission#
 #                            Optimized shifting 变档优化                        2-6%
          变速器技术
                              6+ speed 6档以变速器                                2-8%          x
          #
                              Continuously variable无极变速                      8-11%         x
                              Dual-clutch, automated manual双离合、手自一体变速器      9-13%          x
 #        Aerodynamics 空气动力优化设计                                             2-5%
 #        Tire rolling resistance 低滚动阻力轮胎                                   2-4%
 #        Accessories (steering, air cond., alternator) 附件能效优化              1-4%
Vehicle # Lower refrigerant emissions (low-leak, low-GWP) 低温室效应值的空调制冷剂      2-10%
整车(车体# Mass-reduction# Advanced material components 先进材料                    1-5%
#         减重                  Integrated vehicle design 整合设计                5-10%
 #                                                                                   x (with limited
                              Stop-start mild hybrid弱混合动力                    6-8%
 #        Hybrid systems                                                                 data)
                              Full hybrid electric system强混合动力              30-35%                     6
                                                                                                       	

      *Source of technology potential: EPA NPRM减排潜力数值来源: 联邦环保署2025年轻型车标准草案
Ques%ons	
  answered	
  in	
  this	
  study	
  
            本研究探讨了以下问题
§  What is the technology status     §  中国整体乘用车队、各
    of the entire Chinese passenger
    car fleet, each major market          细分市场和各主要企业
    segment, and each major               的车队特征和技术应用情
    manufacturers?                        况
§  How does the Chinese fleet
    compares to that of US and EU     §  中国乘用车与欧、美乘
    in vehicle specifications and         用车车队特征和技术水
    fuel efficiency technology              平对比
    adoption?
§  How different are independent      §  国产车中,自主品牌和
    brands from joint venture             合资品牌乘用车是否存
    automakers in terms of                在和存在多大技术差异
    technology adoption?


                                                           7
Comparison of fleet characteristics and technology
                   adoption rates by region
        中、美、欧盟轻型车车辆参数和技术采用率比较
                                                           EU Gasoline PC US LDV US PC Chinese
                                               EU PC Fleet     Fleet       Fleet Fleet PC Fleet
        Parameters              参数              欧盟乘用车 欧盟汽油乘用车 美国轻型车 美国乘用车 中国乘用车

Specifications                基本参数
 Engine size (L)              发动机排量 (L)               1.6          1.4     3.1      2.6          1.7
 Curb weight (kg)             整备质量 (kg)             1,322        1,172   1,815    1,611    1,280
 Footprint (m2)               脚印面积 (m2)               3.9         3.75    4.51     4.22     3.79
 Power (kW)                   功率(kW)                  84           77     174C     156C          86
 Max speed (km/h)             最高时速 (km/h)            185          178      223     218       170
 Power-to-weight ratio (W/kg) 功率整备质量比 (W/kg)          62           63       96      97           65
 Engine specific power (kW/L) 发动机升功率 (kW/L)           51           52       57      60           51
Fuel Consumption and CO2 油耗
 Urban FC (L/100km)e          市区油耗 (L/100km)          7.4          8.1     9.8      8.6     10.4
 Extraurban FC (L/100km)e     郊区油耗 (L/100km)          4.9          5.1     6.4      5.6          6.3
 Combined FC (L/100km)e       综合油耗 (L/100km)          5.8          6.2     8.3      7.3          7.8
 Combined NEDC FC (L/         折算成NEDC工况的综合油           5.8          6.2     9.4      8.1          7.8
 100km)                       耗 (L/100km)


                                                                                           8
US LDV US PC Chinese
                                         EU PC Fleet       EU Gasoline PC Fleet
     Parameters                参数         欧盟乘用车               欧盟汽油乘用车
                                                                                    Fleet Fleet PC Fleet
                                                                                  美国轻型车 美国乘用车 中国乘用车
Fuel Type                 燃油种类
 CNG/LPG/flex-fuel        CNG/LPG/灵活燃料            3%                          -          -      -      0%
 Diesel                   柴油                     51%                          -        1%     1%       1%
 Gasoline                 汽油                     44%                      100%        96%    94%     99%
 Hybrid                   汽油/电混合动力                1%                          -        4%     5%    <0.1%
Transmission type         变速器类型
 Automatic                自动                      9%                       14%        84%    80%     34%
 CVT                      无极变速CVT                 2%                        1%        11%    14%      5%
 DCT                      双离合变速DCT                3%                          -       1%d    2%d      1%
 Manual                   手动                     86%                       83%         4%     5%     60%
Number of Gears           变速器档数
 <=4                      <=4                     1%                        2%        25%    29%     12%
 5                        5                      59%                       51%        24%    21%     66%
 >=6	
                    >=6                    38%                       17%        41%    36%     17%
Fuel Supply               供油方式
 Carburetor               化油器                       -                         -        0%     0%     <1%
 Diesel injection         柴油喷射                      -                         -        1%     1%     <1%
 GDI                      汽油缸内直喷                 14%                       32%         8%     8%      6%
 MPI                      多点喷射                      -                         -       77%    80%     82%
 SPI                      单点喷射                      -                         -        0%     0%     11%
 Sequential injection     顺序燃油喷射                    -                         -       14%    11%      0%
Air Intake                进气方式
 Naturally aspirated      自然吸气                   41%                       80%           -      -    93%
 Turbo/supercharger       涡轮增压或机械增压              59%                       16%         4%     4%      7%
Variable Valve Timing     可变气门正时                    -                         -       84%    91%     44%
Variable Valve Lift	
     气门升程                                                        17%    18%      6%
 Continuous               连续可变气门升程                     -                      -        2%     2%      1%
 Discrete                 非连续可变气门升程                    -                      -       15%    16%      5%
                                                                                                       9
Market size of each segment, breakdown by manufacturer type
各细分市场份额、及各细分市场内合资品牌和自主品牌销量比例


Outer ring legend 外环图例
                                              others!   Mini!
                                                6%!     6%!
   Chinese independent
                                             Small!
   自主企业                       Mini Van!                             15%!
                                16%!          微型
   Joint venture 
                          其他   小型
                                         微客
   合资企业

                             SUV!
                             10%!
                                         大型                     中小型
                               Large!        中型
                                4%!                              Lower Medium!
                                                                     32%!
                                        Medium!
                                         10%!




                                                                                 10
Market segments and representative models
                    源数据对各主要细分市场定义及代表车型
                                      Lower !
        Mini!                 Small!                Medium!          Large!                         Minivan!
                                     Medium!                                           SUV	
  
        微型                     小型                      中型              大型                              微客
                                      中小型
hatchback ≤3.75 Hatchbacks ≤ 4.1 Hatchbacks 4.1 usually a sedan, usually a sedan, compact SUV, 5 small bus based
m, RMB 40,000 ~ m, sedans ≤4.3 m, ~4.5 m, sedans 4.6 ~5 m, RMB l≥ 5.0 m, ≥RMB seats, 2.0 L, SUV on Japanese Kei-
    60,000#        RMB 40,000    4.3 ~4.6 m, RMB     100,000        220,000#        often with    car platform,
长度不超过3.75            ~60,000#    80,000 ~ 130,000#  ~180,000#     长度超过5米的 separate chassis, engine around 1.0
米的两厢车,价 长度不超过4.1米的 长度介于4.1米到 一般是4.6-5米长 三厢车,价位在 ≥2.2L often 7                                           L#
位一般在4万元左 两厢车或长度不超 4.5米之间的两厢 的三厢车,价位 22万以上, 多                                          seats#      基于日本Kei-
右,个别达到6万 过4.3米的三厢车,               车或4.3-4.6米的 一般在10到18万            在30万以上 发动机排量在2升 car(轻自动车)
      元         价位一般在4万元 三厢车,价位一                      元之间                	
       左右,可乘坐5人 平台,发动机排量
       	
        (人民币)左右,般在8到13万元之                      	
                        的紧凑型SUV和发 在1升左右的小巴
                 个别达到6万元                间                                         动机排量在2.2升             士
                                         	
                                       以上,可乘坐7人、             	
  
                                                                                  有独立底盘的SUV
Chery	
  QQ3	
        BYD	
  F3,	
  F0	
       Hyundai	
  Elantra	
   Honda	
  Accord	
   Audi	
  A6	
              Honda	
  CR-­‐V	
        Wuling	
  Zhiguang	
  
FAW	
  Xialia	
       Honda	
  City	
          Buick	
  Excelle	
   Toyota	
  Camry	
   Buick	
  LaCrosse,	
        Toyota	
  RAV4,	
   Wuling	
  Xingwang	
  
Chang’an	
            Chevrolet	
  Sail,	
     VW	
  Lavida,	
        Nissan	
  Bluebird,	
  Regal	
                Highlander	
             Chang’an	
  Start	
  
Benben	
              Lova	
                   JePa,	
  Bora,	
       Teana	
                BMW	
  5	
  Series	
   Kia	
  Sportage	
   Chang’an	
  Start	
  II	
  
Chevrolet	
  Spark	
  VW	
  Polo	
             Santana	
              Mazda	
  6	
           Toyota	
  Crown,	
   Great	
  Wall	
            Chang’an	
  
Changhe	
             Ford	
  Fiesta	
         Cherolet	
  Cruze	
   VW	
  Passat,	
         Reiz	
                 Haval	
                  Starlight	
  
Beidouxing	
          Geely	
  Kingkong	
      Ford	
  Focus	
        Magotan	
                                     Hawtai	
  Santa	
  Fe	
  Hafei	
  Minyi	
  
Geely	
  Panda	
   Geely	
  Free	
             Toyota	
  Corolla	
   Chevrolet	
  Epica	
                           Zotye	
  500B	
          Hafei	
  Zhongyi	
  
Suzuki	
  Auto	
      Cruiser	
                Nissan	
  Tiida	
      BYD	
  F6	
                                   VW	
  Tiguan	
           Dongfeng	
  Yu’an	
  
                      Suzuki	
  SwiL	
         Skoda	
  Octavia	
   Ford	
  Mondeo	
                                Chery	
  Tiggo3	
   Xiaokang	
  
                      FAW	
  Weizhi	
          Kida	
  Forte	
                                                      Hyundai	
  Tucson	
  
                                               Honda	
  Civic	
                                                                                                     11
                                                                                                                                                                     	

                                               Chang’an	
  Alsvin	
  
                                               	
  
Average values of vehicle features by segment
           各细分市场车辆基本参数均值
                                                               Lower
 !                                       Mini!      Small!             Medium!      Large!        SUV!        Minivan!
                                                               medium!
      Parameters!             参数
                                         微型         小型         中小型        中型        大型                         微型
                                                                                                  SUV
                                         轿车         轿车         轿车         轿车        轿车                         客车
Market share (%)!       市场份额(%)             6%!        15%!       32%!     10%!         4%!         10%!          16%!

Price (USD)!            价格 (USD)           6789!     11573!      17199!   28977!     51061!       28285!         5401!

Engine size (L)!        发动机排量 (L)            1.1!       1.4!       1.6!        2!       2.4!         2.1!          1.1!

Curb weight (kg)!       整备质量(kg)            918!      1080!       1258!    1464!      1684!        1567!          998!

Footprint (m2)!         脚印面积 (m2)            3.1!       3.6!       3.9!     4.2!        4.6!             4!             3!

Horsepower (kW)!        马力 (kW)              50!        71!         84!     112!       141!         110!            45!

Max speed (km/h)!       最大设计时速 (km/h)       142!       169!        181!     198!       218!         171!          110!

Power/weight (W/kg)!    功率整备质量比 (W/kg)       55!        66!         67!      77!        83!             70!         45!

Specific power (kW/L)!   升功率 (kW/L)           45!        51!         53!      56!        59!             52!         41!
Fuel consumption !
(L/100km)!
                        油耗 (L/100km)         6.4!       6.7!       7.4!     8.5!             9!          9!        7.6!


                                                                                                                 12
Technology adoption by segment
                            各细分市场节油技术采用率
                                                                Lower
                                      Mini	
       Small	
                Medium	
   Large	
        SUV	
       Minivan	
  
                                                               Medium	
  
  Parameters	
              参数
                                      微型           小型            中小型          中型         大型         SUV               微客
Engine	
              发动机技术                                                                                    	
  
             Diesel	
      柴油车比例          0%	
          0%	
         0%	
       0%	
       1%	
         6%	
           0%	
  
         Hybrid*	
  混合动力比例*               0%	
          0%	
         0%	
       1%	
       0%	
         0%	
           0%	
  
                GDI	
   汽油缸内直喷            0%	
          0%	
         4%	
     16%	
      33%	
          8%	
           0%	
  
Turbo charger	
             涡轮增压          0%	
          0%	
         5%	
     16%	
      14%	
        14%	
            0%	
  
 Supercharger	
             机械增压          0%	
          0%	
         0%	
       0%	
       1%	
         0%	
           0%	
  
               VVT	
   可变气门正时             7%	
        13%	
        53%	
      89%	
      99%	
        63%	
            0%	
  
Transmission	
   变速器技术
      Automatic	
                自动    17%	
          24%	
        39%	
      53%	
      76%	
        40%	
            0%	
  
               CVT	
   无极变速 CVT           0%	
          2%	
         4%	
     13%	
      13%	
          7%	
           0%	
  
                        双离合变速
               DCT	
        DCT           0%	
          0%	
         1%	
       1%	
       0%	
         2%	
           0%	
  
      6 + Gears	
          6档及以上          0%	
          3%	
       21%	
      22%	
      87%	
        22%	
            0%	
  
      * Hybrid vehicle data in our raw database is not complete and this may affect values here.                                13
Comparisons between Chinese and EU segments
                                 欧盟汽油乘用车与中国乘用车细分市场比较
EU-­‐27,	
  2010	
  
Segment	
                              Mini	
                  Small	
                Lower	
  medium	
           Medium	
            Upper	
  medium	
            Off-­‐road	
           Car-­‐derived	
  vans	
  
Market	
  share	
                      11%	
                    29%	
                     32%	
                    11%	
                   3%	
                      9%	
                        2%	
  
Typical	
  model	
                Peugeot	
  107	
        Toyota	
  Yaris	
           Volkswagen	
  Golf	
   Toyota	
  Avensis	
   BMW	
  5er	
  series	
          BMW	
  X3	
            Renault	
  Kangoo	
  
Diesel	
  share	
                       7%	
                 35%	
                         59%	
                   78%	
                    81%	
                     76%	
                    77%	
  
Version	
  by	
  fuel	
  type	
   Gasoline	
   Diesel	
   Gasoline	
   Diesel	
   Gasoline	
   Diesel	
   Gasoline	
   Diesel	
   Gasoline	
   Diesel	
   Gasoline	
   Diesel	
   Gasoline	
   Diesel	
  
Number	
  of	
  cylinder	
             3.6	
   3.8	
         3.9	
          3.9	
           4.0	
       4.0	
       4.3	
       4.1	
        5.2	
   5.0	
             4.2	
   4.4	
           4.0	
        4.0	
  
Displacement	
  [L]	
                  1.1	
   1.2	
         1.3	
          1.4	
           1.5	
       1.7	
       2.0	
       2.0	
        2.7	
   2.5	
             1.9	
   2.2	
           1.5	
        1.6	
  
Power	
  [kW]	
                         51	
   51	
           63	
           61	
            87	
        83	
      128	
       109	
        177	
   144	
             111	
   123	
             68	
         67	
  
AT	
  share	
  	
                     12%	
   12%	
           9%	
           3%	
          14%	
       12%	
       36%	
       21%	
        74%	
   61%	
             24%	
   37%	
             4%	
         4%	
  
Curb	
  weight	
  [kg]	
              904	
   975	
         1105	
         1173	
         1312	
      1405	
      1514	
      1565	
       1708	
   1764	
           1450	
   1772	
          1402	
       1428	
  
CO2	
  [NEDC	
  g/km]	
  	
           118	
   111	
          136	
          113	
          156	
       132	
       178	
       148	
        200	
   163	
             182	
   182	
            178	
        144	
  


China,	
  2010	
  
Segment	
                         Mini	
                Small	
                   Lower	
  medium	
   Medium	
                Large	
                           SUV	
                Minivan	
  
Market	
  share	
                     6%	
                  15%	
                    32%	
                 10%	
                     4%	
                          10%	
                  16%	
  
Typical	
  model	
              Chery	
  QQ3	
         BYD	
  F3	
                Hyundai	
  Elantra	
  Honda	
  Accord	
   Audi	
  A6	
                      Honda	
  CR-­‐V	
      Wuling	
  Zhiguang	
  
Diesel	
  share	
                   0%	
                       0%	
                   0%	
                  0%	
                     1%	
                         6%	
                   0%	
  
Number	
  of	
  cylinder	
           3.5	
                    3.9	
                         4.0	
                   4.1	
                    5.0	
                  4.1	
                    4.0	
  
Displacement	
  [L]	
                1.1	
                    1.4	
                         1.6	
                   2.0	
                    2.4	
                  2.1	
                    1.1	
  
Power	
  [kW]	
                       50	
                     71	
                          84	
                  112	
                    141	
                  110	
                      45	
  
AT	
  share	
  	
                   17%	
                    26%	
                         44%	
                   67%	
                    89%	
                  50%	
                      0%	
  
Curb	
  weight	
  [kg]	
            918	
                   1080	
                        1258	
                  1464	
                   1684	
                 1567	
                     998	
  
CO2	
  [NEDC	
  g/km]	
  	
         150	
                    157	
                         173	
                   199	
                    211	
                  211	
                     178	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                               14
Market share of top 18 manufacturers analyzed (over
                    80% of sales)
  本研究涵盖的销量最大的18家国内乘用车企业
                                                           Chang'an,
                                                             8.3%!

                                     Others, 20.0%!
                                                                     Shanghai-GM,
                                                                         8.3%!


   Tianjin-FAW-Xiali, 1.9%!
          FAW Car, 2.1%!
                                                                 SAIC-GM-Wuling, 8.0%!
        Great Wall, 2.2%!
                                                                       Shanghai-VW, 7.6%!
   Dongfeng-Yueda-Kia ,
          2.5%!
       Dongfeng-Citroën-
        Peugeot, 2.8%!
                  Geely, 2.9%!
                                                                                    Bejing-Hyndai, 5.3%!
             Tianjin-FAW-Toyota,
                     2.9%!                                   FAW-
                                                              VW,
          Chang'an-Ford, 3.0%!                        Chery, 5.3%!           Dongfeng-Nissan, 5.3%!
                                   BYD, 3.6%!         4.2%!

                              Guangqi-Honda, 4.0%!
                                                                                                           15
Most Chinese automakers dominate smaller car market, but fuel
              efficiency is not necessarily better
 大多数自主企业生产的车型比合资企业的小,但能效不一
                   定都比合资企业的好
                                        8.5
                                                Brown&bubbles:&Chinese&independent&automakers& Dongfeng-Citroën-
                                                Blue&bubbles:&joint&venture&automakers&            Peugeot
                   Shanghai-VW
                                                                                                                                        Guangqi-Honda

                                                                                                                                                    FAW-Car
 Combined Fuel Consuption (L/100-km)




                                        8.0
                                                                            Great 
                                                                                                 Beijing-Hyundai
       Wall
                                                               SAIC-GM-Wuling
                                                      Dongfeng-Nissan
 Shanghai-GM



                                        7.5
                                                                   Geely
                                                                                    Chang'an
                                               Fleet%average:%                                                                                              Chang`an-Ford
                                                                                                                            FAW-VW
                                               %7.7%L/100km%%                                                                                  Tianjin-FAW-Toyota

                                        7.0
                                                                                      Dongfeng-Yueda-Kia

                                                                                                     Chery

                                                                                                                  BYD
                                                                                         Tianjin-
                                        6.5
       Phase%3%target:%                     FAW-Xiali
                                                   %6.9%L/100km%%

                                                                                                                                         Fleet%average:%3.8%m2%


                                        6.0
                                            2.5
          2.7
        2.9
       3.1
     3.3
          3.5
      3.7
            3.9
           4.1
         4.3
     4.5
 16
                                                                                                                                                                             	

                                                                                            Footprint (m2)
0%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0%%




                                                                                                  10%%
                                                                                                  20%%
                                                                                                  30%%
                                                                                                  40%%
                                                                                                  50%%
                                                                                                  60%%
                                                                                                  70%%
                                                                                                  80%%
                                                                                                  90%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    10%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    20%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    30%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    40%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    50%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    60%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    70%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    80%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    90%%




                                                                                                 100%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   100%%
                                                                                        Chang'an%                                                                                                                                         Chang'an%
                                                                                           Chery%                                                                                                                                            Chery%
                                                                                             BYD%                                                                                                                                              BYD%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       GDI%


                                                                                           Geely%                                                                                                                                            Geely%
                                                                                      Great%Wall%                                                                                                                                       Great%Wall%
                                                                                TianjinLFAWLXiali%                                                                                                                                TianjinLFAWLXiali%




 <LLLLIndependent%brandLLLL>%
                                                                                                                                                 <LLLLIndependent%brandLLLL>%



                                                                                                     Inlet%&%outlet,%conWnuous%
                                                                                   ShanghaiLGM%                                                                                                                                      ShanghaiLGM%
                                                        ShanghaiLGMLWuling%                                                                                                                             ShanghaiLGMLWuling%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       MulWLpoint%injecWon%




                                                                                   ShanghaiLVW%                                                                                                                                      ShanghaiLVW%
                                                                                 BeijingLHyundai%                                                                                                                                  BeijingLHyundai%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Fuel%Supply




                                                                                                                                  Valve%Timing
                                                                                DongfengLNissan%                                                                                                                                  DongfengLNissan%
                                                                                        FAWLVW%                                                                                                                                           FAWLVW%




                                                                                                     Inlet%only,%conWnuous%
                                                                                 GuangqiLHonda%                                                                                                                                    GuangqiLHonda%
                                                                                  Chang'anLFord%                                                                                                                                    Chang'anLFord%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       SingleLpoint%injecWon%




                                                                              TianjinLFAWLToyota%                                                                                                                               TianjinLFAWLToyota%
                                                                              DongfengLCitroënL                                                                                                                                 DongfengLCitroënL
                                                                                                     Not%applicable%
                                                                          DongfengLYuedaLKia%%                                                                                                                            DongfengLYuedaLKia%%
                                                                                        FAW%Car%                                                                                                                                          FAW%Car%




 <LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLJoint%venturesLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL>%
                                                                                                                                                 <LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLJoint%venturesLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL>%




                                                                                                   0%%
                                                                                                  10%%
                                                                                                  20%%
                                                                                                  30%%
                                                                                                  40%%
                                                                                                  50%%
                                                                                                  60%%
                                                                                                  70%%
                                                                                                  80%%
                                                                                                  90%%
                                                                                                 100%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    10%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    20%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    30%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    40%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    50%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    60%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    70%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    80%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    90%%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   100%%




                                                                                        Chang'an%                                                                                                                                         Chang'an%
                                                                                           Chery%                                                                                                                                            Chery%
                                                                                             BYD%                                                                                                                                              BYD%
                                                                                           Geely%                                                                                                                                            Geely%
                                                                                      Great%Wall%                                                                                                                                       Great%Wall%
                                                                                TianjinLFAWLXiali%                                                                                                                                TianjinLFAWLXiali%




 <LLLLIndependent%brandLLLL>%
                                                                                                                                                 <LLLLIndependent%brandLLLL>%



                                                                                                     ConWnuous%




                                                                                   ShanghaiLGM%                                                                                                                                      ShanghaiLGM%
                                                        ShanghaiLGMLWuling%                                                                                                                             ShanghaiLGMLWuling%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Turbo/super%charger%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                各主要企业发动机技术使用情况




                                                                                   ShanghaiLVW%                                                                                                                                      ShanghaiLVW%
                                                                                                     Discrete%
                                                                                                                                  Valve%Lift
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Air%Intake




                                                                                 BeijingLHyundai%                                                                                                                                  BeijingLHyundai%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Engine efficiency technology adoption




                                                                                DongfengLNissan%                                                                                                                                  DongfengLNissan%
                                                                                        FAWLVW%                                                                                                                                           FAWLVW%
                                                                                 GuangqiLHonda%                                                                                                                                    GuangqiLHonda%
                                                                                                     Not%applicable%




                                                                                  Chang'anLFord%                                                                                                                                    Chang'anLFord%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Naturally%aspirated%




                                                                              TianjinLFAWLToyota%                                                                                                                               TianjinLFAWLToyota%
                                                                              DongfengLCitroënL                                                                                                                                 DongfengLCitroënL
                                                                          DongfengLYuedaLKia%%                                                                                                                            DongfengLYuedaLKia%%
                                                                                        FAW%Car%                                                                                                                                          FAW%Car%
                                                                                                                                                        <LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLJoint%venturesLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL>%




     <LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLJoint%venturesLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL>%
17
0%)
                                                                                                                        10%)
                                                                                                                               20%)
                                                                                                                                      30%)
                                                                                                                                             40%)
                                                                                                                                                    50%)
                                                                                                                                                           60%)
                                                                                                                                                                  70%)
                                                                                                                                                                         80%)
                                                                                                                                                                                90%)
                                                                                                                                                                                       100%)
                                                                                                         Chang'an)
                                                                                                            Chery)
                                                                                                              BYD)
                                                                                                            Geely)
                                                                                                       Great)Wall)

                                                                                                                                                                                               CVT)
                                                                                                 TianjinHFAWHXiali)




             <HHHHIndependent)brandHHHH>)
                                                                                                     ShanghaiHGM)
                                                                                                                                                                                               Dual)clutch)




                                                                                             ShanghaiHGMHWuling)
                                                                                                     ShanghaiHVW)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Transmission)Type




                                                                                                  BeijingHHyundai)
                                                                                                 DongfengHNissan)
                                                                                                                                                                                               AutomaVc)




                                                                                                         FAWHVW)
                                                                                                   GuangqiHHonda)
                                                                                                    Chang'anHFord)
                                                                                                                                                                                               Manual)




                                                                                               TianjinHFAWHToyota)
                                                                                         DongfengHCitroënHPeugeot)
                                                                                              DongfengHYuedaHKia))
                                                                                                          FAW)Car)




             <HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHJoint)venturesHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH>)
                                                                                                                  0%)
                                                                                                                        10%)
                                                                                                                               20%)
                                                                                                                                      30%)
                                                                                                                                             40%)
                                                                                                                                                    50%)
                                                                                                                                                           60%)
                                                                                                                                                                  70%)
                                                                                                                                                                         80%)
                                                                                                                                                                                90%)
                                                                                                                                                                                       100%)




                                                                                                        Chang'an)
                                                                                                            Chery)
                                                                                                              BYD)
                                                                                                            Geely)
                                                                                                       Great)Wall)
                                                                                                 TianjinHFAWHXiali)
             <HHHHIndependent)brandHHHH>)
                                                                                                                                                                                                Variable)




                                                                                                    ShanghaiHGM)
                                                                                             ShanghaiHGMHWuling)
                                                                                                                                                                                                6+)




                                                                                                    ShanghaiHVW)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Number)of)Gears




                                                                                                  BeijingHHyundai)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  各主要企业变速器技术使用情况
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Transmission technology adoption




                                                                                                 DongfengHNissan)
                                                                                                                                                                                                5)




                                                                                                         FAWHVW)
                                                                                                  GuangqiHHonda)
                                                                                                                                                                                                4)




                                                                                                   Chang'anHFord)
                                                                                               TianjinHFAWHToyota)
                                                                                DongfengHCitroënHPeugeot)
                                                                                              DongfengHYuedaHKia))
18
 	





                                                                                                         FAW)Car)
       <HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHJoint)venturesHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH>)
Case analysis: Chinese brand vs. EU and US brands with similar
                                              product mix
                        案例分析: 自主品牌和欧、美合资品牌技术应用比较
                                            12771
                    13001                                                                          21                                                  41                                                             551                                                            701                                                        8.01




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             54.11
                                                                                                                                                                          3.81
                                                                                                                                                                   3.81




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     53.71




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Fuel1consump;on1(L/100km)1



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       7.31
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Power1to1weight1ra;o1(w/kg)1
                                                                                                                                                                                       Engine1specific1power1(kW/L)1
                                    12051




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7.21
                    12501                                                                                                                            3.81                                                                                                                                                                                       7.51
                                                                                                 1.81                                                                                                                 541                                                            691




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           68.11
                                                                                                                                   Footprint1(m2)1
Kerb1Weight1(kg)1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              71
                                                                                                                                                            3.61
                                                                                                                        1.61
                                                    Engine1size1(L)1



                    12001                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       7.01
                                                                                                        1.51                                         3.61

                                                                                                               1.51
                                                                                                 1.61                                                                                                                 531                                                            681
                            11211




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   66.81
                    11501                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       6.51
                                                                                                 1.41                                                3.41                                                             521                                                            671




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           66.11
                    11001                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       6.01
                                                                                                                                                     3.21




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             50.31
                    10501                                                                        1.21                                                                                                                 511                                                            661                                                        5.51

                    10001                                                                          11                                                  31                                                             501                                                            651                                                        5.01



                                                                                                                                                                   45%1
                    50%1                                                                         50%1                                                50%1                                                             50%1                                                          50%1                                                        50%1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              39%1
                                                               Turbo/supercharger1adop;on1(%)1




                                                                                                 40%1                                                40%1                                                             40%1                                                          40%1                                                        40%1
                                                                                                                      33%1




                    40%1                                                                                                                                                  33%1

                                                                                                                                                                                    6+1gears1adop;on1(%)1
                                            33%1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   DCT1adop;on1(%)1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     CVT1adop;on1(%)1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      30%1
                                                                                                                               VVT1adop;on1(%)1
 GDI1adop;on1(%)1




                    30%1                                                                         30%1                                                30%1                                                             30%1                                                          30%1                                                        30%1


                                                                                                                                                                                                                      20%1                                                          20%1                                                        20%1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           12%1
                    20%1                                                                         20%1                                                20%1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    6%1
                    10%1                                                                         10%1                                                10%1                                                             10%1                                                          10%1                                                        10%1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0%1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0%1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0%1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0%1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0%1
                                                                                                               0%1
                                                                                                        0%1




                                                                                                                                                            0%1
                            0%1

                                    0%1




                     0%1                                                                          0%1                                                 0%1                                                              0%1                                                           0%1                                                         0%1


                                                                                                                                                              Geely              Chevrolet                                   VW


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           19
Major findings 主要结论
§  The overall Chinese fleet is      §  中国在各个主要车辆节油技术上
    lagged in many key efficiency           ,如可变气门正时、汽油缸内
    technologies behind Europe            直喷、涡轮增压与机械增压等,
    and US.                               都显著落后于欧盟或美国,甚至
                                          同时落后于两者。不过中国对某
§  Technology adoption status            些技术的应用正在迎头赶上。
    vary by segment. Smaller car
    segments (dominated by            §  中国乘用车各细分市场的技术利
                                          用水平有所不同。总体来说,国
    domestic makers) are more
                                          产自主品牌占主导地位的小型车
    lagged.                               市场比以合资企业为主的中、大
§  Mini vans are extremely               型车市场在几乎所有的节油技术
    inefficient and lagged in all key       上都要落后。
    technologies.                     §  微型客车(面包车)虽然体型小
§  Most Chinese automakers are           ,能效却很差,油耗与一般的中
    not as advanced as joint              小型轿车差不多,先进技术采用
    venture companies in                  率最低。
    technology adoption.              §  中国自主品牌企业在应用节油技
                                          术方面与合资企业相比还存在明   20
                                                            	

                                          显的差距。
http://www.theicct.org/new-passenger-car-fleet-china-2010


                                                            21
Thank you!
 hui@theicct.org

 谢谢!




                   22

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中国2010年新乘用车节油技术应用情况分析 及国际比较

  • 1. Technology assessment of China’s new passenger car fleet and international comparisons 中国2010年新乘用车节油技术应用情况分析 及国际比较 Hui He, Jun Tu 国际清洁交通委员会 何卉、涂军 January 2013
  • 3. 18.5 15.0 13.0 世界上主要的汽车市场就是我们 开展工作的主要领域 4.2 3.6 3.3 2.8 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.9 Slide 3 Source: Ward’s Automotive
  • 4. Background 背景 §  To support China to develop §  对中国中长期轻型车油耗标 mid-to-long term fuel 准制订提供技术支持 consumption standards for passenger cars §  中国油耗标准回顾 §  Regulatory history –  从2005年起制订并实施了 –  China has been regulating new 三个阶段标准 light-duty vehicle fuel economy since 2005. –  现行标准(第三阶段)去 –  Current standards (phase 3) 年开始实施 phased in last year. –  Auto industry development plan §  节能与新能源汽车产业规划 2012-2020 sets 5L/100km 2012-2020制订了第四阶段 §  ICCT’s role: based on experience 初步目标:5升/百公里 from our US and EU technology and cost work, we’d like to §  ICCT过去几年致力于欧盟达 introduce a similar methodology 标成本曲线的研究,相似的 to China to evaluate 方法框架和模型可用于中国 technologies and costs to meet the future targets. 。基准技术水平研究是第 一步。 4
  • 5. Data and methodology 数据与方法 PC Fleet 乘用车 Import Fleet Domestic 国产车 进口车 Domestic Lower Mini Small Medium Large Minivan Parameters 参数 Fleet medium SUV 微型 小型 中型 大型 微客 国产全体 中小型 Engine size (cc) 发动机排量 (cc) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Curb weight (kg) 整备质量 (kg) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Wheel base (mm) 轴距 (mm) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% Front track width (mm) 前轮距 (mm) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 98% Rear track width (mm) 后轮距 (mm) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 98% Power (HP) 功率 (HP) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 100% HP (rpm) 功率转速 (rpm) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% Torque (N.m) 扭矩 (N.m) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% Torque (rpm) 扭距转速 (rpm) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% Max speed (km/h) 最高车速 (km/h) 99% 97% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 98% 98% Accel speed 0-100km/h 0-100公里/时加速时间 34% 84% 32% 16% 27% 41% 59% 70% 26% 0% Compression ratio 气缸压缩比 94% 99% 93% 84% 99% 98% 84% 96% 77% 100% Drive train 传动系统 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Fuel type 燃油类型 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Transmission type 变速器类型 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% No. of gears 变速器档位数 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Engine type 发动机类型 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Valve configuration 气门结构 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% No. of cylinders 汽缸数 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Valve per cylinder 每汽缸气门数 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Fuel supply 供油方式 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Air intake 进气方式 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Valve timing 气门正时 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Valve lift 气门升程 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Fuel consumption (urban) 油耗 (市区) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Fuel consumption (extraurban) 油耗 (郊区) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Fuel consumption (combined) 油耗 (综合) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 5 Emissions standard 排放标准 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 6. Technologies analyzed in this paper 主要节油技术一览及本研究涵盖的技术种类 Potential CO2 Analyzed reduction! in this Technologies技术类别 CO2 减排潜 report! 力 本研究涵盖! Low friction lubrication 低阻润滑油 0.5% Engine friction reduction 降低发动机阻力 2-4%  # Variable valve timing (and lift)可变气门正时和升程 4-6% x  # Engine# Cylinder deactivation 停缸 5-6%  # 发动机技术 Turbocharging 涡轮增压 2-5% x  # # Turbo, gasoline direct injection 增压汽油直喷 8-15% x  Powertrain# Cooled EGR, turbo, GDI 冷却废气循环+增压汽油直喷 20-25% 传动系统 Compression ignition diesel 柴油压燃 15-25% # Digital valve actuation 数字气门驱动 5-10%  # Early torque converter lock-up液力变矩器提早锁止 0.5%  Transmission#  # Optimized shifting 变档优化 2-6% 变速器技术   6+ speed 6档以变速器 2-8% x # Continuously variable无极变速 8-11% x Dual-clutch, automated manual双离合、手自一体变速器 9-13% x  # Aerodynamics 空气动力优化设计 2-5%  # Tire rolling resistance 低滚动阻力轮胎 2-4%  # Accessories (steering, air cond., alternator) 附件能效优化 1-4% Vehicle # Lower refrigerant emissions (low-leak, low-GWP) 低温室效应值的空调制冷剂 2-10% 整车(车体# Mass-reduction# Advanced material components 先进材料 1-5% # 减重 Integrated vehicle design 整合设计 5-10%  # x (with limited Stop-start mild hybrid弱混合动力 6-8%  # Hybrid systems data)   Full hybrid electric system强混合动力 30-35% 6 *Source of technology potential: EPA NPRM减排潜力数值来源: 联邦环保署2025年轻型车标准草案
  • 7. Ques%ons  answered  in  this  study   本研究探讨了以下问题 §  What is the technology status §  中国整体乘用车队、各 of the entire Chinese passenger car fleet, each major market 细分市场和各主要企业 segment, and each major 的车队特征和技术应用情 manufacturers? 况 §  How does the Chinese fleet compares to that of US and EU §  中国乘用车与欧、美乘 in vehicle specifications and 用车车队特征和技术水 fuel efficiency technology 平对比 adoption? §  How different are independent §  国产车中,自主品牌和 brands from joint venture 合资品牌乘用车是否存 automakers in terms of 在和存在多大技术差异 technology adoption? 7
  • 8. Comparison of fleet characteristics and technology adoption rates by region 中、美、欧盟轻型车车辆参数和技术采用率比较 EU Gasoline PC US LDV US PC Chinese EU PC Fleet Fleet Fleet Fleet PC Fleet Parameters 参数 欧盟乘用车 欧盟汽油乘用车 美国轻型车 美国乘用车 中国乘用车 Specifications 基本参数 Engine size (L) 发动机排量 (L) 1.6 1.4 3.1 2.6 1.7 Curb weight (kg) 整备质量 (kg) 1,322 1,172 1,815 1,611 1,280 Footprint (m2) 脚印面积 (m2) 3.9 3.75 4.51 4.22 3.79 Power (kW) 功率(kW) 84 77 174C 156C 86 Max speed (km/h) 最高时速 (km/h) 185 178 223 218 170 Power-to-weight ratio (W/kg) 功率整备质量比 (W/kg) 62 63 96 97 65 Engine specific power (kW/L) 发动机升功率 (kW/L) 51 52 57 60 51 Fuel Consumption and CO2 油耗 Urban FC (L/100km)e 市区油耗 (L/100km) 7.4 8.1 9.8 8.6 10.4 Extraurban FC (L/100km)e 郊区油耗 (L/100km) 4.9 5.1 6.4 5.6 6.3 Combined FC (L/100km)e 综合油耗 (L/100km) 5.8 6.2 8.3 7.3 7.8 Combined NEDC FC (L/ 折算成NEDC工况的综合油 5.8 6.2 9.4 8.1 7.8 100km) 耗 (L/100km) 8
  • 9. US LDV US PC Chinese EU PC Fleet EU Gasoline PC Fleet Parameters 参数 欧盟乘用车 欧盟汽油乘用车 Fleet Fleet PC Fleet 美国轻型车 美国乘用车 中国乘用车 Fuel Type 燃油种类 CNG/LPG/flex-fuel CNG/LPG/灵活燃料 3% - - - 0% Diesel 柴油 51% - 1% 1% 1% Gasoline 汽油 44% 100% 96% 94% 99% Hybrid 汽油/电混合动力 1% - 4% 5% <0.1% Transmission type 变速器类型 Automatic 自动 9% 14% 84% 80% 34% CVT 无极变速CVT 2% 1% 11% 14% 5% DCT 双离合变速DCT 3% - 1%d 2%d 1% Manual 手动 86% 83% 4% 5% 60% Number of Gears 变速器档数 <=4 <=4 1% 2% 25% 29% 12% 5 5 59% 51% 24% 21% 66% >=6   >=6 38% 17% 41% 36% 17% Fuel Supply 供油方式 Carburetor 化油器 - - 0% 0% <1% Diesel injection 柴油喷射 - - 1% 1% <1% GDI 汽油缸内直喷 14% 32% 8% 8% 6% MPI 多点喷射 - - 77% 80% 82% SPI 单点喷射 - - 0% 0% 11% Sequential injection 顺序燃油喷射 - - 14% 11% 0% Air Intake 进气方式 Naturally aspirated 自然吸气 41% 80% - - 93% Turbo/supercharger 涡轮增压或机械增压 59% 16% 4% 4% 7% Variable Valve Timing 可变气门正时 - - 84% 91% 44% Variable Valve Lift   气门升程 17% 18% 6% Continuous 连续可变气门升程 - - 2% 2% 1% Discrete 非连续可变气门升程 - - 15% 16% 5% 9
  • 10. Market size of each segment, breakdown by manufacturer type 各细分市场份额、及各细分市场内合资品牌和自主品牌销量比例 Outer ring legend 外环图例 others! Mini! 6%! 6%! Chinese independent Small! 自主企业 Mini Van! 15%! 16%! 微型 Joint venture 其他 小型 微客 合资企业 SUV! 10%! 大型 中小型 Large! 中型 4%! Lower Medium! 32%! Medium! 10%! 10
  • 11. Market segments and representative models 源数据对各主要细分市场定义及代表车型 Lower ! Mini! Small! Medium! Large! Minivan! Medium! SUV   微型 小型 中型 大型 微客 中小型 hatchback ≤3.75 Hatchbacks ≤ 4.1 Hatchbacks 4.1 usually a sedan, usually a sedan, compact SUV, 5 small bus based m, RMB 40,000 ~ m, sedans ≤4.3 m, ~4.5 m, sedans 4.6 ~5 m, RMB l≥ 5.0 m, ≥RMB seats, 2.0 L, SUV on Japanese Kei- 60,000# RMB 40,000 4.3 ~4.6 m, RMB 100,000 220,000# often with car platform, 长度不超过3.75 ~60,000# 80,000 ~ 130,000# ~180,000# 长度超过5米的 separate chassis, engine around 1.0 米的两厢车,价 长度不超过4.1米的 长度介于4.1米到 一般是4.6-5米长 三厢车,价位在 ≥2.2L often 7 L# 位一般在4万元左 两厢车或长度不超 4.5米之间的两厢 的三厢车,价位 22万以上, 多 seats# 基于日本Kei- 右,个别达到6万 过4.3米的三厢车, 车或4.3-4.6米的 一般在10到18万 在30万以上 发动机排量在2升 car(轻自动车) 元 价位一般在4万元 三厢车,价位一 元之间   左右,可乘坐5人 平台,发动机排量   (人民币)左右,般在8到13万元之   的紧凑型SUV和发 在1升左右的小巴 个别达到6万元 间 动机排量在2.2升 士   以上,可乘坐7人、   有独立底盘的SUV Chery  QQ3   BYD  F3,  F0   Hyundai  Elantra   Honda  Accord   Audi  A6   Honda  CR-­‐V   Wuling  Zhiguang   FAW  Xialia   Honda  City   Buick  Excelle   Toyota  Camry   Buick  LaCrosse,   Toyota  RAV4,   Wuling  Xingwang   Chang’an   Chevrolet  Sail,   VW  Lavida,   Nissan  Bluebird,  Regal   Highlander   Chang’an  Start   Benben   Lova   JePa,  Bora,   Teana   BMW  5  Series   Kia  Sportage   Chang’an  Start  II   Chevrolet  Spark  VW  Polo   Santana   Mazda  6   Toyota  Crown,   Great  Wall   Chang’an   Changhe   Ford  Fiesta   Cherolet  Cruze   VW  Passat,   Reiz   Haval   Starlight   Beidouxing   Geely  Kingkong   Ford  Focus   Magotan   Hawtai  Santa  Fe  Hafei  Minyi   Geely  Panda   Geely  Free   Toyota  Corolla   Chevrolet  Epica   Zotye  500B   Hafei  Zhongyi   Suzuki  Auto   Cruiser   Nissan  Tiida   BYD  F6   VW  Tiguan   Dongfeng  Yu’an   Suzuki  SwiL   Skoda  Octavia   Ford  Mondeo   Chery  Tiggo3   Xiaokang   FAW  Weizhi   Kida  Forte   Hyundai  Tucson   Honda  Civic   11 Chang’an  Alsvin    
  • 12. Average values of vehicle features by segment 各细分市场车辆基本参数均值 Lower  ! Mini! Small! Medium! Large! SUV! Minivan! medium!  Parameters! 参数 微型 小型 中小型 中型 大型 微型 SUV 轿车 轿车 轿车 轿车 轿车 客车 Market share (%)! 市场份额(%) 6%! 15%! 32%! 10%! 4%! 10%! 16%! Price (USD)! 价格 (USD) 6789! 11573! 17199! 28977! 51061! 28285! 5401! Engine size (L)! 发动机排量 (L) 1.1! 1.4! 1.6! 2! 2.4! 2.1! 1.1! Curb weight (kg)! 整备质量(kg) 918! 1080! 1258! 1464! 1684! 1567! 998! Footprint (m2)! 脚印面积 (m2) 3.1! 3.6! 3.9! 4.2! 4.6! 4! 3! Horsepower (kW)! 马力 (kW) 50! 71! 84! 112! 141! 110! 45! Max speed (km/h)! 最大设计时速 (km/h) 142! 169! 181! 198! 218! 171! 110! Power/weight (W/kg)! 功率整备质量比 (W/kg) 55! 66! 67! 77! 83! 70! 45! Specific power (kW/L)! 升功率 (kW/L) 45! 51! 53! 56! 59! 52! 41! Fuel consumption ! (L/100km)! 油耗 (L/100km) 6.4! 6.7! 7.4! 8.5! 9! 9! 7.6! 12
  • 13. Technology adoption by segment 各细分市场节油技术采用率 Lower Mini   Small   Medium   Large   SUV   Minivan   Medium   Parameters   参数 微型 小型 中小型 中型 大型 SUV 微客 Engine   发动机技术     Diesel   柴油车比例 0%   0%   0%   0%   1%   6%   0%   Hybrid*  混合动力比例* 0%   0%   0%   1%   0%   0%   0%   GDI   汽油缸内直喷 0%   0%   4%   16%   33%   8%   0%   Turbo charger   涡轮增压 0%   0%   5%   16%   14%   14%   0%   Supercharger   机械增压 0%   0%   0%   0%   1%   0%   0%   VVT   可变气门正时 7%   13%   53%   89%   99%   63%   0%   Transmission   变速器技术 Automatic   自动 17%   24%   39%   53%   76%   40%   0%   CVT   无极变速 CVT 0%   2%   4%   13%   13%   7%   0%   双离合变速 DCT   DCT 0%   0%   1%   1%   0%   2%   0%   6 + Gears   6档及以上 0%   3%   21%   22%   87%   22%   0%   * Hybrid vehicle data in our raw database is not complete and this may affect values here. 13
  • 14. Comparisons between Chinese and EU segments 欧盟汽油乘用车与中国乘用车细分市场比较 EU-­‐27,  2010   Segment   Mini   Small   Lower  medium   Medium   Upper  medium   Off-­‐road   Car-­‐derived  vans   Market  share   11%   29%   32%   11%   3%   9%   2%   Typical  model   Peugeot  107   Toyota  Yaris   Volkswagen  Golf   Toyota  Avensis   BMW  5er  series   BMW  X3   Renault  Kangoo   Diesel  share   7%   35%   59%   78%   81%   76%   77%   Version  by  fuel  type   Gasoline   Diesel   Gasoline   Diesel   Gasoline   Diesel   Gasoline   Diesel   Gasoline   Diesel   Gasoline   Diesel   Gasoline   Diesel   Number  of  cylinder   3.6   3.8   3.9   3.9   4.0   4.0   4.3   4.1   5.2   5.0   4.2   4.4   4.0   4.0   Displacement  [L]   1.1   1.2   1.3   1.4   1.5   1.7   2.0   2.0   2.7   2.5   1.9   2.2   1.5   1.6   Power  [kW]   51   51   63   61   87   83   128   109   177   144   111   123   68   67   AT  share     12%   12%   9%   3%   14%   12%   36%   21%   74%   61%   24%   37%   4%   4%   Curb  weight  [kg]   904   975   1105   1173   1312   1405   1514   1565   1708   1764   1450   1772   1402   1428   CO2  [NEDC  g/km]     118   111   136   113   156   132   178   148   200   163   182   182   178   144   China,  2010   Segment   Mini   Small   Lower  medium   Medium   Large   SUV   Minivan   Market  share   6%   15%   32%   10%   4%   10%   16%   Typical  model   Chery  QQ3   BYD  F3   Hyundai  Elantra  Honda  Accord   Audi  A6   Honda  CR-­‐V   Wuling  Zhiguang   Diesel  share   0%   0%   0%   0%   1%   6%   0%   Number  of  cylinder   3.5   3.9   4.0   4.1   5.0   4.1   4.0   Displacement  [L]   1.1   1.4   1.6   2.0   2.4   2.1   1.1   Power  [kW]   50   71   84   112   141   110   45   AT  share     17%   26%   44%   67%   89%   50%   0%   Curb  weight  [kg]   918   1080   1258   1464   1684   1567   998   CO2  [NEDC  g/km]     150   157   173   199   211   211   178   14
  • 15. Market share of top 18 manufacturers analyzed (over 80% of sales) 本研究涵盖的销量最大的18家国内乘用车企业 Chang'an, 8.3%! Others, 20.0%! Shanghai-GM, 8.3%! Tianjin-FAW-Xiali, 1.9%! FAW Car, 2.1%! SAIC-GM-Wuling, 8.0%! Great Wall, 2.2%! Shanghai-VW, 7.6%! Dongfeng-Yueda-Kia , 2.5%! Dongfeng-Citroën- Peugeot, 2.8%! Geely, 2.9%! Bejing-Hyndai, 5.3%! Tianjin-FAW-Toyota, 2.9%! FAW- VW, Chang'an-Ford, 3.0%! Chery, 5.3%! Dongfeng-Nissan, 5.3%! BYD, 3.6%! 4.2%! Guangqi-Honda, 4.0%! 15
  • 16. Most Chinese automakers dominate smaller car market, but fuel efficiency is not necessarily better 大多数自主企业生产的车型比合资企业的小,但能效不一 定都比合资企业的好 8.5 Brown&bubbles:&Chinese&independent&automakers& Dongfeng-Citroën- Blue&bubbles:&joint&venture&automakers& Peugeot Shanghai-VW Guangqi-Honda FAW-Car Combined Fuel Consuption (L/100-km) 8.0 Great Beijing-Hyundai Wall SAIC-GM-Wuling Dongfeng-Nissan Shanghai-GM 7.5 Geely Chang'an Fleet%average:% Chang`an-Ford FAW-VW %7.7%L/100km%% Tianjin-FAW-Toyota 7.0 Dongfeng-Yueda-Kia Chery BYD Tianjin- 6.5 Phase%3%target:% FAW-Xiali %6.9%L/100km%% Fleet%average:%3.8%m2% 6.0 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 16 Footprint (m2)
  • 17. 0%% 0%% 10%% 20%% 30%% 40%% 50%% 60%% 70%% 80%% 90%% 10%% 20%% 30%% 40%% 50%% 60%% 70%% 80%% 90%% 100%% 100%% Chang'an% Chang'an% Chery% Chery% BYD% BYD% GDI% Geely% Geely% Great%Wall% Great%Wall% TianjinLFAWLXiali% TianjinLFAWLXiali% <LLLLIndependent%brandLLLL>% <LLLLIndependent%brandLLLL>% Inlet%&%outlet,%conWnuous% ShanghaiLGM% ShanghaiLGM% ShanghaiLGMLWuling% ShanghaiLGMLWuling% MulWLpoint%injecWon% ShanghaiLVW% ShanghaiLVW% BeijingLHyundai% BeijingLHyundai% Fuel%Supply Valve%Timing DongfengLNissan% DongfengLNissan% FAWLVW% FAWLVW% Inlet%only,%conWnuous% GuangqiLHonda% GuangqiLHonda% Chang'anLFord% Chang'anLFord% SingleLpoint%injecWon% TianjinLFAWLToyota% TianjinLFAWLToyota% DongfengLCitroënL DongfengLCitroënL Not%applicable% DongfengLYuedaLKia%% DongfengLYuedaLKia%% FAW%Car% FAW%Car% <LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLJoint%venturesLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL>% <LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLJoint%venturesLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL>% 0%% 10%% 20%% 30%% 40%% 50%% 60%% 70%% 80%% 90%% 100%% 0%% 10%% 20%% 30%% 40%% 50%% 60%% 70%% 80%% 90%% 100%% Chang'an% Chang'an% Chery% Chery% BYD% BYD% Geely% Geely% Great%Wall% Great%Wall% TianjinLFAWLXiali% TianjinLFAWLXiali% <LLLLIndependent%brandLLLL>% <LLLLIndependent%brandLLLL>% ConWnuous% ShanghaiLGM% ShanghaiLGM% ShanghaiLGMLWuling% ShanghaiLGMLWuling% Turbo/super%charger% 各主要企业发动机技术使用情况 ShanghaiLVW% ShanghaiLVW% Discrete% Valve%Lift Air%Intake BeijingLHyundai% BeijingLHyundai% Engine efficiency technology adoption DongfengLNissan% DongfengLNissan% FAWLVW% FAWLVW% GuangqiLHonda% GuangqiLHonda% Not%applicable% Chang'anLFord% Chang'anLFord% Naturally%aspirated% TianjinLFAWLToyota% TianjinLFAWLToyota% DongfengLCitroënL DongfengLCitroënL DongfengLYuedaLKia%% DongfengLYuedaLKia%% FAW%Car% FAW%Car% <LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLJoint%venturesLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL>% <LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLJoint%venturesLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL>% 17
  • 18. 0%) 10%) 20%) 30%) 40%) 50%) 60%) 70%) 80%) 90%) 100%) Chang'an) Chery) BYD) Geely) Great)Wall) CVT) TianjinHFAWHXiali) <HHHHIndependent)brandHHHH>) ShanghaiHGM) Dual)clutch) ShanghaiHGMHWuling) ShanghaiHVW) Transmission)Type BeijingHHyundai) DongfengHNissan) AutomaVc) FAWHVW) GuangqiHHonda) Chang'anHFord) Manual) TianjinHFAWHToyota) DongfengHCitroënHPeugeot) DongfengHYuedaHKia)) FAW)Car) <HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHJoint)venturesHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH>) 0%) 10%) 20%) 30%) 40%) 50%) 60%) 70%) 80%) 90%) 100%) Chang'an) Chery) BYD) Geely) Great)Wall) TianjinHFAWHXiali) <HHHHIndependent)brandHHHH>) Variable) ShanghaiHGM) ShanghaiHGMHWuling) 6+) ShanghaiHVW) Number)of)Gears BeijingHHyundai) 各主要企业变速器技术使用情况 Transmission technology adoption DongfengHNissan) 5) FAWHVW) GuangqiHHonda) 4) Chang'anHFord) TianjinHFAWHToyota) DongfengHCitroënHPeugeot) DongfengHYuedaHKia)) 18 FAW)Car) <HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHJoint)venturesHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH>)
  • 19. Case analysis: Chinese brand vs. EU and US brands with similar product mix 案例分析: 自主品牌和欧、美合资品牌技术应用比较 12771 13001 21 41 551 701 8.01 54.11 3.81 3.81 53.71 Fuel1consump;on1(L/100km)1 7.31 Power1to1weight1ra;o1(w/kg)1 Engine1specific1power1(kW/L)1 12051 7.21 12501 3.81 7.51 1.81 541 691 68.11 Footprint1(m2)1 Kerb1Weight1(kg)1 71 3.61 1.61 Engine1size1(L)1 12001 7.01 1.51 3.61 1.51 1.61 531 681 11211 66.81 11501 6.51 1.41 3.41 521 671 66.11 11001 6.01 3.21 50.31 10501 1.21 511 661 5.51 10001 11 31 501 651 5.01 45%1 50%1 50%1 50%1 50%1 50%1 50%1 39%1 Turbo/supercharger1adop;on1(%)1 40%1 40%1 40%1 40%1 40%1 33%1 40%1 33%1 6+1gears1adop;on1(%)1 33%1 DCT1adop;on1(%)1 CVT1adop;on1(%)1 30%1 VVT1adop;on1(%)1 GDI1adop;on1(%)1 30%1 30%1 30%1 30%1 30%1 30%1 20%1 20%1 20%1 12%1 20%1 20%1 20%1 6%1 10%1 10%1 10%1 10%1 10%1 10%1 0%1 0%1 0%1 0%1 0%1 0%1 0%1 0%1 0%1 0%1 0%1 0%1 0%1 0%1 0%1 0%1 Geely Chevrolet VW 19
  • 20. Major findings 主要结论 §  The overall Chinese fleet is §  中国在各个主要车辆节油技术上 lagged in many key efficiency ,如可变气门正时、汽油缸内 technologies behind Europe 直喷、涡轮增压与机械增压等, and US. 都显著落后于欧盟或美国,甚至 同时落后于两者。不过中国对某 §  Technology adoption status 些技术的应用正在迎头赶上。 vary by segment. Smaller car segments (dominated by §  中国乘用车各细分市场的技术利 用水平有所不同。总体来说,国 domestic makers) are more 产自主品牌占主导地位的小型车 lagged. 市场比以合资企业为主的中、大 §  Mini vans are extremely 型车市场在几乎所有的节油技术 inefficient and lagged in all key 上都要落后。 technologies. §  微型客车(面包车)虽然体型小 §  Most Chinese automakers are ,能效却很差,油耗与一般的中 not as advanced as joint 小型轿车差不多,先进技术采用 venture companies in 率最低。 technology adoption. §  中国自主品牌企业在应用节油技 术方面与合资企业相比还存在明 20 显的差距。