Impact of vehicle and fuel standards on premature mortality and emissions
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Slides and audio from a webinar presenting the results of an ICCT study that evaluates worldwide historical and potential impacts of fuel quality and vehicle emission standards, presents a global policy roadmap through 2030, and quantifies the benefits to public health and the climate. The study finds that if countries worldwide followed a policy path to Euro 6/VI-equivalent emission standards and ultra-low sulfur fuel, early deaths from road vehicle emissions could be reduced by 75% in the year 2030.
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Impact of vehicle and fuel standards on premature mortality and emissions
- 1. The Impact of Stringent Fuel and Vehicle Standards on Premature Mortality and Emissions! Cristiano Façanha, Sarah Chambliss, Josh Miller, Ray Minjares, Kate Blumberg! ICCT Roadmap Webinar Series! December 4th, 2013!
- 2. Webinar Structure! ! Introduction and report overview! ! 15 min, Cristiano Façanha! ! Emissions methodology! ! 10 min, Josh Miller! ! Health impact methodology! ! 20 min, Sarah Chambliss! ! Q&A! ! 15 min! 1!
- 3. Global Transportation Roadmap Series! THE IMPACT OF STRINGENT FUEL AND VEHICLE STANDARDS ON PREMATURE MORTALITY AND EMISSIONS ICCT’S GLOBAL TRANSPORTATION HEALTH AND CLIMATE ROADMAP SERIES AUTHORS: Sarah Chambliss, Josh Miller, Cristiano Façanha, Ray Minjares, Kate Blumberg www.theicct.org communications@theicct.org BEIJING | BERLIN | BRUSSELS | SAN FRANCISCO | WASHINGTON 2!
- 4. Most advanced controls can reduce emissions by over 99%! 3!
- 5. There is wide discrepancy regarding the stringency of vehicle emission standards worldwide! Standards shown for LDVs! 1/ I 2/ II 3/ III 4/ IV 5/ V 6/ VI Grey: no standards/ import standards or unknown.! 4!
- 6. A global focus on health impacts from transportation is critical to provide policy insights! BEST PRACTICE AUSTRALIA, CANADA, EU-28 JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, US NON-EU EUROPE AND RUSSIA CHINA AND INDIA AFRICA MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC-40 LATIN AMERICA 5!
- 7. The study relies on a well-informed policy roadmap towards cleaner vehicles and fuels! EU-28 Canada U.S. Japan Australia South Korea China- Metro buses China India (early adopters) India (nat’l) Brazil Mexico Latin America-31 Russia Non-EU Europe Asia-Pacific-40 Africa Middle East 1990 Baseline Standards Accelerated Standards 1995 Pre-Euro Euro III 2000 2005 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro IV 2010 Euro 3 Euro V 2015 Euro 4 Euro VI HDV Standards Timeline! 2020 2025 Euro 5 2030 Euro 6 Next-Generation 6!
- 8. Latest vehicle controls can reduce emissions and premature mortality worldwide by 75% !! Best Practice Non-EU Europe, Russia, & Latin America China & India Other Countries 110,000 At a global level, health impacts from urban vehicle particle emissions will increase 50% by 2030 unless new vehicle and fuel standards are adopted. 100,000 90,000 70,000 60,000 -79% -80% 50,000 40,000 30,000 -74% 20,000 -7% 10,000 Baseline Accelerated 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2030 2000 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 0 2000 Early deaths 80,000 Globally new standards could save 210,000 early deaths in 2030 and 25 million of years of life through 2030. (%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030 7!
- 9. And they can cut short-lived climate pollutants by over 80%! Baseline Accelerated 400 Total non-CO2 GHG emissions (MtCO2e) 350 300 80% 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2005 Best Practice 2010 2015 2020 China & India 2025 2030 2000 Latin America 2005 2010 2015 2020 Non-EU Europe & Russia 2025 2030 Other Countries 8!
- 10. Framework for evaluating the health impacts of transportation emissions! SOURCE EMISSIONS CONCENTRATION HEALTH EFFECTS Vehicle Activity Tons of PM Emitted Urban Air Quality Early Deaths and Years of Life Lost Emission Factors ! Historical data from government agencies in major markets, IEA in other countries! Projected based on changes in population and PPP-GDP! Emission factors: grams per vehicle-km! ! ! ! ConcentrationResponse Function Source: vehicle-km traveled by road vehicles in urban areas! ! ! ! Urban Intake Fractions Consider vehicle fleet composition, fuel type, emission control technology! Influenced by emission standards and diesel sulfur content! Emissions: metric tons, product of activity and emission factors! 9!
- 11. Emission factors! ! Reasons for using emission factors! ! ! ! Reflect policy effects on real-world emissions! Lifetime average emission factors include deterioration! Depend on speed, temperature, road grade, vehicle types! ! Reasons for applying COPERT factors across regions! ! ! ! ! ! Most countries follow European classification scheme for vehicle standards (Euro 1/I through Euro 6/VI)! Developed by strong research/academic team! Well-supported, up-to-date standards and technologies! Comprehensive, public documentation! Emission factors broadly in line with other models!
- 12. Vehicle emission limits and ultra-low sulfur diesel are key drivers of PM emission reduction! 0.45 Diesel: 2,000 ppm 500 ppm 350 ppm 50 ppm 10 ppm HHDT Average lifetime emission factor (grams PM 2.5 /km) 0.40 LDV -99% Fuel Sulfur Level -25% 0.35 0.30 0.25 -38% -99% 0.20 -22% -68% 0.15 0.10 -77% -20% 0.05 -33% -23% -95% 0.00 Uncontrolled Euro 1/I Euro 2/II Euro 3/III Euro 4/IV -90% Euro 5/V Euro 6/VI DPF! DPF! 11!
- 13. Vehicle turnover translates standards into fleetwide emission reductions! Accelerated 1400 Vehicle-km traveled (billion) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 4,000 NOX (metric kiloton) ! Figure: HDV activity and NOx emissions by control level in China! ! Baseline: China IV yields initial reductions, outpaced by VKT growth! ! Accelerated: China V and VI result in sustained NOx reductions! Baseline 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2005 Uncontrolled 2010 2015 Euro I 2020 2025 Euro II 2030 2000 Euro III 2005 Euro IV 2010 2015 Euro V 2020 2025 2030 Euro VI 12!
- 14. Accelerated standards drive convergence in average emissions per vehicle-km! Baseline Accelerated 0.10 Bars = variation in emissions (g/km)! PM (g/km) 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 NOX (g/km) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 2010 2015 Best Practice 2020 China & India 2025 2030 Latin America 2010 2015 2020 Non-EU Europe & Russia 2025 2030 Other Countries 13!
- 15. Emissions projections! Vehicle-km traveled (billion) 1.3% Non-EU Europe & Russia Latin America Other Countries 7.4% 10,000 4.3% 5,000 3.4% 3.5% Health effects quantified 300 200 100 -76% -83% -4% -76% -83% 0 10,000 5,000 -71% -82% -40% 0 -55% -71% 4,000 3,000 2,000 Accelerated 2025 2015 2020 2005 2010 -70% 2000 2015 2020 2005 2010 2000 2025 2030 2015 2020 2005 2010 2000 2025 2030 2015 2020 2005 2010 2000 2025 2030 2015 2020 2005 Baseline 2025 -54% -66% 2030 -78% -47% 2010 0 2030 1,000 2000 ! PM (metric kiloton) ! China & India 0 NOX (metric kiloton) ! Figure: (top row) vehicle-km, (below) PM, NOx, HC emissions! Baseline: sustained decreases in Best Practice regions! Accelerated policies reverse emission trends in many regions (2020-2030)! By 2030, 80% reduction in PM compared to baseline in regions yet to adopt best practices! HC (metric kiloton) ! Best Practice (%) Data labels indicate annualized growth in vehicle activity (%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030 14!
- 16. Urban concentration with intake fractions! SOURCE EMISSIONS CONCENTRATION Gridded Emissions Inventory Gridded Air Quality Chemical Transport Model HEALTH EFFECTS Aggregate Health Impacts Disaggregation Vehicle Activity Tons of PM Emitted Emission Factors Urban Intake Fractions ConcentrationResponse Function Urban Air Quality 15!
- 17. Intake fraction! ! Intake fraction is the ratio of the mass of pollutant inhaled to mass emitted! ! ! ! ! ! ! Intake fraction varies by source and setting! ! Size of exposed population! ! Proximity of emissions to population! ! Environmental persistence of pollutant! 16!
- 18. Variation in intake fraction worldwide (Apte 2012)! 17!
- 19. Calculating concentration from intake fraction! Breathing rate constant (Q) ! 18!
- 20. Estimating impacts from exposure! ! The “relative risk” predicts how much more often deaths will occur at higher concentrations! ! The size of the urban population and the baseline disease rate both influence the final estimate of total early deaths! ! RRs are estimated for 3 disease categories that lead to premature mortality! ! Lung cancer, adults over 30! ! Cardiopulmonary disease, adults over 30! ! Acute respiratory infection (ARI), children under 5! 19!
- 21. Estimating impacts: nuances of the concentrationresponse function! 1.8 Relative Risk 1.7 1.6 C = 10 g/m 3 RR = 0.038 1.5 1.4 1.3 C = 10 g/m 3 RR = 0.110 1.2 1.1 1 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 Ambient PM2.5 ( g/m3) ! ! ! Two forms of concentration-response functions, linear and log-linear (Ostro et al. 2005)! The background concentration can influence the increase in relative risk! We take the average of the change in risk near the counterfactual and at the background concentration! 20!
- 22. Premature mortality from on-road urban PM2.5 emissions! Best Practice Non-EU Europe, Russia, & Latin America China & India Other Countries 110,000 100,000 90,000 Early deaths 80,000 70,000 60,000 -79% -80% 50,000 40,000 30,000 -74% 20,000 -7% 10,000 Baseline ! ! ! Accelerated 2025 2030 2020 2010 2015 2005 2000 2025 2030 2020 2010 2015 2005 2000 2025 2030 2020 2010 2015 2005 2030 2000 2025 2020 2010 2015 2005 2000 0 (%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030 Best Practice countries show decreased years of life lost under baseline conditions! Urbanization and rising emissions cause increased baseline health impacts in China & India and Other Countries! Accelerated policies reduce impacts across regions! 21!
- 23. Comparing health impacts ! China & India Non-EU Europe & Russia Latin America Other Countries Baseline Age-adjusted mortality rate 250 200 150 100 50 0 250 200 150 100 2030 2020 2010 2030 2000 2020 2010 2030 2000 2020 2010 2030 2000 2020 2010 2030 2000 2020 0 2010 50 2000 Accelerated Age-adjusted mortality rate ! Rates control for population size and age! ! Accelerated policies bring mortality rates to comparable low levels across regions ! Best Practice Australia Japan China Brazil Non-EU Europe Africa Canada South Korea India Latin America-31 Russia Asia-Pacific-40 EU-28 U.S. Mexico Middle East 22!
- 24. Comparison of benefits estimates between this analysis and Shindell et al. (2011)! 300,000 Annual mortalities prevented Range given by Shindell et al. 2011 Results from this analysis 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 North America (U.S. + Canada) China India Western Europe (EU-28) Western FSU South & North Africa/ (Russia+ Central Africa Middle East Non-EU Europe) (Africa) Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, Latin America-31) Global 23!
- 25. Benefits beyond preventing early death! 24!
- 26. Main Messages! ! ! ! ! ! ! Very clean vehicle and fuel technologies exist. These technologies are already cost effective, and costs will continue to decline.! Despite progress in developed countries, current penetration in developing countries is insufficient to limit the worsening in health impacts.! Standards have proved to be an effective policy to bring substantial health and climate co-benefits.! The adoption of new standards would cause emission rates around the world to converge at much reduced levels, resulting in a drop in PM2.5 , NOX, and HC emissions.! By a conservative estimate, reducing PM2.5 emissions through new standards will prevent over 210,000 early deaths in the year 2030 in urban areas. ! The full health benefits of new policies increase when considering nonfatal health impacts, impacts in rural areas, and impacts of ozone.! 25!
- 27. Thank you! For more information:! ICCT’S Global Transportation Health and Climate Roadmap Series! Global Transportation Energy and Climate Roadmap! http://www.theicct.org/global-transportation-energy-and-climate-roadmap! The Impact of Vehicle and Fuel Standards on Premature Mortality and Emissions! http://www.theicct.org/global-health-roadmap! Roadmap Model! http://www.theicct.org/ global-transportationroadmap-model! Cristiano Façanha cristiano@theicct.org! 26!