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Altos Research – September 21, 2011




Altos Research Mid-Cities Report
Real-Time Housing Market Update

September, 2011
“Dr Ray Stantz: My parents left me that house. I was born there.”
“Dr. Peter Venkman: You're not gonna lose the house, everybody has three
mortgages nowadays.” -Ghostbusters

Three mortgages would have been extreme, even in the boom days of
the 2000s. Nonetheless, over-leveraged real estate had a profound effect
on today’s housing market. We’re not out of the woods yet and the
market trends tell us we’re settling in for a long, cold winter.

Welcome to the fourth installment of the Altos Research Mid-Cities
Report. The Mid-Cities Report provides a glimpse into real estate market
trends for mid-sized US markets not commonly reported in the media.

This month prices decreased in 13 of the 20 markets, and inventory
decreased in 19 of the 20 markets. The market trends indicate a further
cooling of the market as we approach the fall.

Our Altos 20-City Composite National Report confirmed the loss of
momentum from summer market activity earlier this month. Transaction
statistics published by S&P/Case-Shiller will show the same loss of
momentum in a few months.

The 90-day prices were flattening last month and the declining curve is
becoming more pronounced. Figure 1 illustrates the price trend for the
past twelve months. The 90-day inventory flattened last month and has
also started to decline, as illustrated in Figure 2.




  Real-Time National Housing Market Update ©Copyright Altos Research       -1-
Altos Research – September 21, 2011




Figure 1: Prices in the Mid-Cities Composite flattened last month and are currently
   trending downward. The Altos 20-City Composite is reporting similar market
            behavior, which indicates a cooling of the housing market.




Figure 2: Inventory has gone from flattening to declining as the market cools. The
annual high point was the result of the inventory increase in the summer of 2010,
  with the inventory increase in 2011 being much smaller from the seasonal low
                                       point.


Key takeaways from the markets covered in this report:
    The median price was $255,093 in mid-September, down from
       $256,021 in mid-August (-0.36%). For comparison, the Altos 20-
       City composite median price was down to $447,679 in August
       from $450,176 in July.
    The leaders in the three-month price increases are Durham
       (5.69%), Boulder (4.40%), and Reno (2.93%).
    Durham had the largest one-month increase in median price, with
       a 1.68% increase to $280,313.



  Real-Time National Housing Market Update ©Copyright Altos Research          -2-
Altos Research – September 21, 2011


      Eleven markets had decreasing prices at the three-month level.
       The three largest decreases were Naples (-3.15%), Pittsburgh (-
       2.76%), and Charleston (-1.20%).
      The largest one-month decrease in inventory was Naples, with a
       6.93% decrease.
      The largest one month increase in inventory was Boulder, with a
       1.57% increase. Boulder was one of two composite markets that
       didn’t experience a decrease in inventory last month.


Trends: September Home Prices
The mid-cities composite experienced a decrease in median prices
through mid-September. The biggest decreases were in Pittsburgh (-
1.68%), Naples (-1.22%), and Charleston (-0.65%). The price gain over a
three-month period was in Durham, with a 5.69% increase.



Altos Research Price Composite
   MSA           July '11      August      Sept ‘11        %             %
                                '11                     Change         Change
                                                         From           Over
                                                          Last          Three
                                                         Month         Months




Mid-Cities      $256,228     $256,021      $255,093      -0.36%        -0.44%
Composite

Albuquerque     $231,765     $232,005      $231,992      -0.01%        0.10%

   Austin       $284,955     $284,874      $285,186      0.11%         0.08%

 Baltimore      $367,630     $367,707      $366,453      -0.34%        -0.32%

   Boise        $167,367     $169,089      $169,018      -0.04%        0.99%

  Boulder       $420,724     $434,329      $439,219      1.13%         4.40%

Charleston      $340,828     $338,950      $336,743      -0.65%        -1.20%

   Dover        $215,953     $214,450      $213,706      -0.35%        -1.04%

  Durham        $265,215     $275,681      $280,313      1.68%         5.69%




  Real-Time National Housing Market Update ©Copyright Altos Research           -3-
Altos Research – September 21, 2011


   MSA           July '11      August      Sept ‘11        %             %
                                '11                     Change         Change
                                                         From           Over
                                                          Last          Three
                                                         Month         Months




 Honolulu       $751,336     $751,459      $752,703      0.17%         0.18%

Jacksonville    $221,467     $221,792      $221,029      -0.34%        -0.20%

 Memphis        $166,651     $166,754      $166,588      -0.10%        -0.04%

  Naples        $547,480     $536,770      $530,243      -1.22%        -3.15%

 Nashville      $236,883     $235,975      $234,956      -0.43%        -0.81%

  Orlando       $228,524     $229,722      $231,203      0.64%         1.17%

 Pittsburgh     $163,882     $162,079      $159,364      -1.68%        -2.76%

   Reno         $235,783     $239,095      $242,699      1.51%         2.93%

Sacramento      $244,175     $246,263      $247,659      0.57%         1.43%

San Antonio     $219,994     $220,090      $219,941      -0.07%        -0.02%

  St. Louis     $184,177     $183,819      $182,637      -0.64%        -0.84%

  Ventura       $555,371     $556,548      $554,155      -0.43%        -0.22%
  County




Trends: Housing Supply
The inventory in the mid-cities composite was down this month, with 18 of
20 markets showing decreased inventory. Last month, there was a
1.79% decrease in inventory. Over a three-month period, inventory has
decreased 2.08%.

The Altos national composite also showed decreased inventory over one-
month and three-month time periods. Inventory decreased 0.55% over
one-month and 0.71% over three-months.




  Real-Time National Housing Market Update ©Copyright Altos Research           -4-
Altos Research – September 21, 2011




   MSA           July '11     August       Sept ‘11         %           %
                               '11                       Change       Change
                                                          From         Over
                                                           Last        Three
                                                          Month       Months

Mid-Cities      159,037       158,555      155,725       -1.79%       -2.08%
Composite

Albuquerque       5173          5198         5179        -0.35%       0.12%

  Austin         11059         11059        10673        -3.50%       -3.49%

 Baltimore       10999         11055        10871        -1.67%       -1.16%

   Boise          4354          4272         4163        -2.54%       -4.37%

  Boulder          689          708           719        1.57%        4.35%

Charleston        6672          6745         6726        -0.28%       0.82%

   Dover          1275          1270         1261        -0.72%       -1.09%

  Durham          3769          3574         3368        -5.77%       -10.65%

 Honolulu         1760          1800         1800        0.00%        2.29%

Jacksonville     10312         10143         9978        -1.63%       -3.24%

 Memphis          8725          8659         8490        -1.95%       -2.69%

  Naples          5125          4870         4533        -6.93%       -11.56%

 Nashville       13596         13600        13375        -1.65%       -1.63%

  Orlando        10622         10359        10072        -2.78%       -5.19%

 Pittsburgh      12781         12836        12716        -0.94%       -0.51%

   Reno           3488          3545         3541        -0.09%       1.52%

Sacramento       12082         12159        12091        -0.56%       0.08%

San Antonio      12277         12316        12102        -1.74%       -1.42%

 St. Louis       20959         21073        20799        -1.30%       -0.76%

  Ventura         3321          3314         3269        -1.35%       -1.57%
  County




 Real-Time National Housing Market Update ©Copyright Altos Research       -5-
Altos Research – September 21, 2011




Methodology
The Altos Research Mid-Cities Housing Report gives you unfettered, up-
to-the-minute data relative to housing market conditions in mid-sized
markets around the nation. The Altos report is comprised of data that can
be used now, not aging, months-old statistics that mean nothing in a
market that's in a constant state of flux. Altos Research uses metrics
associated with active residential property listings to give you real-time
information. We give you the market as it is, not as it was.

Each "market" measured is equivalent to the Census Bureau's
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) dominated by the city listed.
Properties analyzed in the data include repeat sales of single-family
homes, but not condominiums, town homes, or new construction homes.

The Altos Mid-Cities Composite is based on single family homes in
Albuquerque, Austin, Baltimore, Boise, Boulder, Charleston, Dover,
Durham, Jacksonville, Honolulu, Memphis, Naples, Nashville, Orlando,
Pittsburgh, Reno, Sacramento, St. Louis, San Antonio, and Ventura
County, CA. For more information, check out www.altosresearch.com.


About Altos Research
Altos Research, LLC is at the forefront of real-time real estate market
research. Founded in 2005, Altos' pioneering technologies and
information products serve investors, derivatives traders, as well as
thousands of real estate professionals. The company publishes statistical
reports and data analyses each week for over 20,000 zip codes in more
than 200 metro markets around the county, including the 20 S&P/Case-
Shiller markets.

                            Altos Research
                            280 Hope Street, First Floor
                            Mountain View, CA 94041
                            888-819-7775
                            www.altosresearch.com
                            info@altosresearch.com




  Real-Time National Housing Market Update ©Copyright Altos Research   -6-

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September '11 Mid Cities Report

  • 1. Altos Research – September 21, 2011 Altos Research Mid-Cities Report Real-Time Housing Market Update September, 2011 “Dr Ray Stantz: My parents left me that house. I was born there.” “Dr. Peter Venkman: You're not gonna lose the house, everybody has three mortgages nowadays.” -Ghostbusters Three mortgages would have been extreme, even in the boom days of the 2000s. Nonetheless, over-leveraged real estate had a profound effect on today’s housing market. We’re not out of the woods yet and the market trends tell us we’re settling in for a long, cold winter. Welcome to the fourth installment of the Altos Research Mid-Cities Report. The Mid-Cities Report provides a glimpse into real estate market trends for mid-sized US markets not commonly reported in the media. This month prices decreased in 13 of the 20 markets, and inventory decreased in 19 of the 20 markets. The market trends indicate a further cooling of the market as we approach the fall. Our Altos 20-City Composite National Report confirmed the loss of momentum from summer market activity earlier this month. Transaction statistics published by S&P/Case-Shiller will show the same loss of momentum in a few months. The 90-day prices were flattening last month and the declining curve is becoming more pronounced. Figure 1 illustrates the price trend for the past twelve months. The 90-day inventory flattened last month and has also started to decline, as illustrated in Figure 2. Real-Time National Housing Market Update ©Copyright Altos Research -1-
  • 2. Altos Research – September 21, 2011 Figure 1: Prices in the Mid-Cities Composite flattened last month and are currently trending downward. The Altos 20-City Composite is reporting similar market behavior, which indicates a cooling of the housing market. Figure 2: Inventory has gone from flattening to declining as the market cools. The annual high point was the result of the inventory increase in the summer of 2010, with the inventory increase in 2011 being much smaller from the seasonal low point. Key takeaways from the markets covered in this report:  The median price was $255,093 in mid-September, down from $256,021 in mid-August (-0.36%). For comparison, the Altos 20- City composite median price was down to $447,679 in August from $450,176 in July.  The leaders in the three-month price increases are Durham (5.69%), Boulder (4.40%), and Reno (2.93%).  Durham had the largest one-month increase in median price, with a 1.68% increase to $280,313. Real-Time National Housing Market Update ©Copyright Altos Research -2-
  • 3. Altos Research – September 21, 2011  Eleven markets had decreasing prices at the three-month level. The three largest decreases were Naples (-3.15%), Pittsburgh (- 2.76%), and Charleston (-1.20%).  The largest one-month decrease in inventory was Naples, with a 6.93% decrease.  The largest one month increase in inventory was Boulder, with a 1.57% increase. Boulder was one of two composite markets that didn’t experience a decrease in inventory last month. Trends: September Home Prices The mid-cities composite experienced a decrease in median prices through mid-September. The biggest decreases were in Pittsburgh (- 1.68%), Naples (-1.22%), and Charleston (-0.65%). The price gain over a three-month period was in Durham, with a 5.69% increase. Altos Research Price Composite MSA July '11 August Sept ‘11 % % '11 Change Change From Over Last Three Month Months Mid-Cities $256,228 $256,021 $255,093 -0.36% -0.44% Composite Albuquerque $231,765 $232,005 $231,992 -0.01% 0.10% Austin $284,955 $284,874 $285,186 0.11% 0.08% Baltimore $367,630 $367,707 $366,453 -0.34% -0.32% Boise $167,367 $169,089 $169,018 -0.04% 0.99% Boulder $420,724 $434,329 $439,219 1.13% 4.40% Charleston $340,828 $338,950 $336,743 -0.65% -1.20% Dover $215,953 $214,450 $213,706 -0.35% -1.04% Durham $265,215 $275,681 $280,313 1.68% 5.69% Real-Time National Housing Market Update ©Copyright Altos Research -3-
  • 4. Altos Research – September 21, 2011 MSA July '11 August Sept ‘11 % % '11 Change Change From Over Last Three Month Months Honolulu $751,336 $751,459 $752,703 0.17% 0.18% Jacksonville $221,467 $221,792 $221,029 -0.34% -0.20% Memphis $166,651 $166,754 $166,588 -0.10% -0.04% Naples $547,480 $536,770 $530,243 -1.22% -3.15% Nashville $236,883 $235,975 $234,956 -0.43% -0.81% Orlando $228,524 $229,722 $231,203 0.64% 1.17% Pittsburgh $163,882 $162,079 $159,364 -1.68% -2.76% Reno $235,783 $239,095 $242,699 1.51% 2.93% Sacramento $244,175 $246,263 $247,659 0.57% 1.43% San Antonio $219,994 $220,090 $219,941 -0.07% -0.02% St. Louis $184,177 $183,819 $182,637 -0.64% -0.84% Ventura $555,371 $556,548 $554,155 -0.43% -0.22% County Trends: Housing Supply The inventory in the mid-cities composite was down this month, with 18 of 20 markets showing decreased inventory. Last month, there was a 1.79% decrease in inventory. Over a three-month period, inventory has decreased 2.08%. The Altos national composite also showed decreased inventory over one- month and three-month time periods. Inventory decreased 0.55% over one-month and 0.71% over three-months. Real-Time National Housing Market Update ©Copyright Altos Research -4-
  • 5. Altos Research – September 21, 2011 MSA July '11 August Sept ‘11 % % '11 Change Change From Over Last Three Month Months Mid-Cities 159,037 158,555 155,725 -1.79% -2.08% Composite Albuquerque 5173 5198 5179 -0.35% 0.12% Austin 11059 11059 10673 -3.50% -3.49% Baltimore 10999 11055 10871 -1.67% -1.16% Boise 4354 4272 4163 -2.54% -4.37% Boulder 689 708 719 1.57% 4.35% Charleston 6672 6745 6726 -0.28% 0.82% Dover 1275 1270 1261 -0.72% -1.09% Durham 3769 3574 3368 -5.77% -10.65% Honolulu 1760 1800 1800 0.00% 2.29% Jacksonville 10312 10143 9978 -1.63% -3.24% Memphis 8725 8659 8490 -1.95% -2.69% Naples 5125 4870 4533 -6.93% -11.56% Nashville 13596 13600 13375 -1.65% -1.63% Orlando 10622 10359 10072 -2.78% -5.19% Pittsburgh 12781 12836 12716 -0.94% -0.51% Reno 3488 3545 3541 -0.09% 1.52% Sacramento 12082 12159 12091 -0.56% 0.08% San Antonio 12277 12316 12102 -1.74% -1.42% St. Louis 20959 21073 20799 -1.30% -0.76% Ventura 3321 3314 3269 -1.35% -1.57% County Real-Time National Housing Market Update ©Copyright Altos Research -5-
  • 6. Altos Research – September 21, 2011 Methodology The Altos Research Mid-Cities Housing Report gives you unfettered, up- to-the-minute data relative to housing market conditions in mid-sized markets around the nation. The Altos report is comprised of data that can be used now, not aging, months-old statistics that mean nothing in a market that's in a constant state of flux. Altos Research uses metrics associated with active residential property listings to give you real-time information. We give you the market as it is, not as it was. Each "market" measured is equivalent to the Census Bureau's Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) dominated by the city listed. Properties analyzed in the data include repeat sales of single-family homes, but not condominiums, town homes, or new construction homes. The Altos Mid-Cities Composite is based on single family homes in Albuquerque, Austin, Baltimore, Boise, Boulder, Charleston, Dover, Durham, Jacksonville, Honolulu, Memphis, Naples, Nashville, Orlando, Pittsburgh, Reno, Sacramento, St. Louis, San Antonio, and Ventura County, CA. For more information, check out www.altosresearch.com. About Altos Research Altos Research, LLC is at the forefront of real-time real estate market research. Founded in 2005, Altos' pioneering technologies and information products serve investors, derivatives traders, as well as thousands of real estate professionals. The company publishes statistical reports and data analyses each week for over 20,000 zip codes in more than 200 metro markets around the county, including the 20 S&P/Case- Shiller markets. Altos Research 280 Hope Street, First Floor Mountain View, CA 94041 888-819-7775 www.altosresearch.com info@altosresearch.com Real-Time National Housing Market Update ©Copyright Altos Research -6-