8. The Central England Temperature record is
the longest instrumental record of temperature in the world.
Degrees celsius relative to the long-term mean
Source: Parker et al., Journal of Climate, 1992
10. The number of climate stations recording air temperature
falls off rapidly prior to AD 1900.
Number of stations in the Northern Hemisphere
Source: Jones et al., Journal of Geophysical Research, 2012
12. CLIMATE HISTORY OF NORTH AMERICA
Younger Demise of Laurentide
Dryas Ice Sheet
20 16 12 8 4 0
THOUSANDS OF
YEARS AGO
Final Drainage
of Lake Agassiz
LAST GLACIAL MODERN
MAXIMUM OBSERVATIONS
13.
14. CLIMATE PROXIES
ice cores
tree rings
lake sediments
speleothems
corals
21. READING
Holocene perspectives
on future climate change
Ray Bradley
Natural Climate Variability and Global Warming, 2008
22.
23.
24. “ Tree-ring analysis is one of the most powerful tools
available for the study of environmental change
and the identification of fundamental relationships
”
between tree growth and climate.
Ed Cook and Neil Pederson
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
25. “ RINGS
”
IN THE BRANCHES OF
SAWED TREES SHOW
THE NUMBER OF YEARS
AND, ACCORDING TO THEIR
THICKNESS,
THE YEARS WHICH WERE
MORE OR LESS
DRY.
Leonardo da Vinci
26. “ The trees composing the forest rejoice and
lament with its successes and failures and
carry year by year something of its story in
”
their annual rings.
A. E. Douglass
University of Arizona
27. 755 m3/s
847 m 3/s
809 m 3/s
770 m 3/s
823 m 3/s
787 m 3/s
901 m3/s
3
43. DOWNLOAD THESE DATA
Bear Canyon West (NM586) Rito de los Frijoles (NM501)
Fenton Lake Recollection (NM587) Baca (NM558)
Los Alamos (NM044) Abouselman Spring (NM555)
Los Alamos (NM046) Cat Mesa (NM556)
54. “ The main purpose of Program COFECHA
is the identification of [tree-ring] data
that should be reexamined for possible error.
”
Richard Holmes
Tree-Ring Bulletin 1983
67. EXERCISE
Use COFECHA to confirm that our sets of
ringwidth measurements are dated correctly.
68. QUALITY CONTROL THESE DATA
Bear Canyon West (NM586) Rito de los Frijoles (NM501)
Fenton Lake Recollection (NM587) Baca (NM558)
Los Alamos (NM044) Abouselman Spring (NM555)
Los Alamos (NM046) Cat Mesa (NM556)
69.
70. 755 m3/s
847 m 3/s
809 m 3/s
770 m 3/s
823 m 3/s
787 m 3/s
901 m3/s
3
78. “
The growth of trees is undoubtably controlled more by
the movement of water than by the movement of any
other single substance.”
Hal Fri s
Tree Rings and Climate
83. Climate acts to synchronize growth rates
at the level of the cell, the tree, the forest and beyond.
84.
85. READING
How well understood are the processes
that create dendroclimatic records?
Eugene Vaganov, Kevin Anchukaitis and Michael Evans
Dendroclimatology, 2012
86. EARLYWOOD AND LATEWOOD WIDTH
MAXIMUM LATEWOOD DENSITY
VESSEL SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION
WOOD BIOCHEMISTRY
STABLE ISOTOPES
TOTAL RING WIDTH
104. THE PRINCIPLE OF
REPLICATION
Making measurements from (i) more than one radius per
tree and (ii) more than one tree per site maximizes the
environmental signal and minimizes the amount of
environmental ‘noise’.
105. Et
can be assumed to be uncorrelated within
and between trees in a stand.
106. δD1t
Endogenous (‘originating within’) disturbances will be random
events in both space and time, if the stand of trees is large enough.
107. δD2t
o en is shared by most or all trees within a stand, but
may not be shared by all forest stands within a region.
108. THE PRINCIPLE OF AGGREGATE TREE GROWTH
Rt = At + Ct + δD1t + δD2t + Et
size-related growth trend
caused by physiological aging
112. “ At should be thought of as a nonstationary,
stochastic process which may, as a special
case, be modeled as a determinstic process.
”
Ed Cook
Tree-Ring Bulletin 1987
115. “ Growth functions are removed by fi ing a curve to
the data and dividing each measured ring-width
value by the "expected" value on the growth curve.
”
Ray Bradley
Paleoclimatology 1999
120. “ Standardization transforms the non-stationary ring-widths
in a new series of stationary, relative tree-ring indices that
have a defined mean of 1.0 and a constant variance.
”
Ed Cook
Tree-Ring Bulletin 1987
123. PROGRAM ARSTAN
PRODUCES CHRONOLOGIES
FROM TREE-RING MEASUREMENT SERIES
BY DETRENDING AND INDEXING
(STANDARDIZING) THE SERIES,
THEN APPLYING
A ROBUST ESTIMATION
OF THE MEAN VALUE FUNCTION
TO REMOVE EFFECTS OF
ENDOGENOUS STAND DISTURBANCES.
136. EXERCISE
Use several different detrending methods
to standardize our set of ring-width chronologies
and let’s see what happens!
137. STANDARDIZE THESE DATA
Bear Canyon West (NM586) Rito de los Frijoles (NM501)
Fenton Lake Recollection (NM587) Baca (NM558)
Los Alamos (NM044) Abouselman Spring (NM555)
Los Alamos (NM046) Cat Mesa (NM556)
138. USE FOUR DIFFERENT APPROACHES
TO STANDARDIZATION
Horizontal line
Negative exponential curve
20-yr flexible spline
Flexible spline set to 67% of series length
142. WHO WILL FIND THE FIRST
“DIRTY DOG”?
Source: Terry Bain
143. USE FOUR DIFFERENT APPROACHES
TO STANDARDIZATION
Horizontal line
Negative exponential curve
20-yr flexible spline
Flexible spline set to 67% of series length
144. Pinus longaeva in western North America show a recent increase in
growth even without any standardization to remove age-effects.
Source: Saltzer et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009
145. READING
Recent unprecedented tree-ring
growth in bristlecone pine at the
highest elevations and possible causes
Ma hew Salzer, Malcolm Hughes, Andy Bunn and Kurt
Kipfmeuller
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009
148. READING
The ‘segment-length curse’ in long
tree-ring chronology development for
palaeoclimatic reconstruction
Ed Cook, Keith Briffa, David Meko, Donald Graybill and Gary
Funkhouser
The Holocene, 1995
149. The maximum wavelength of recoverable climatic information
is related to the lengths of the individual tree-ring series
used to construct the millennia-long chronology.
170. IF a time series (of length N) is
significantly autocorrelated, then:
The series is not random in time
Each observation is not independent
from other observations
The number of independant
observations is fewer than N
187. CAT MESA, NEW MEXICO
‘Standard’ chronology
‘Residual’ chronology
188. READING
On the average value of correlated time
series, with applications in
dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology
Tom Wigley, Keith Briffa and Phil Jones
Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 1984
189.
190.
191.
192. READING
Millennial precipitation reconstruction
for the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico,
reveals changing drought signal
Ramzi Touchan, Connie Woodhouse, Dave Meko and Craig Allen
International Journal of Climatology, 2011
193. PRODUCE CHRONOLOGIES
FOR THESE DATA
Bear Canyon West (NM586) Rito de los Frijoles (NM501)
Fenton Lake Recollection (NM587) Baca (NM558)
Los Alamos (NM044) Abouselman Spring (NM555)
Los Alamos (NM046) Cat Mesa (NM556)
