In 1968, Benoit Mandelbrot and James Wallis published an article titled ‘Noah, Joseph, and operational Hydrology’ in the journal Water Resources Research. In it, they argued that hydrological models of the day were not able to estimate the true risk of extreme floods or prolonged drought, and that rare hydrological events were much more common than usually assumed. In this lecture, I’ll review how high-resolution paleoenvironmental archives can help us judge more accurately the risks posed by the ‘Noah’- and ‘Joseph’-style events described by Mandelbrot and Wallis. I’ll give particular emphasis to the environmental information recovered from the rings of ancient trees, and explain how dendrochronology (tree-ring research) has been used to redefine the ‘flood of record’, test potential avenues for long-lead climate predictions, and gage the performance of state-of-the-art climate models.

1. NOAH, JOSEPH,
AND HIGH-RESOLUTION PALEOCLIMATOLOGY
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University | February 4, 2015
Sco St. George
University of Minnesota

2. Benoit Mandelbrot March 2007

3. Source: NASA/GSFC/JPL, MISR Team

5. RANDOM
GAUSSIAN
+

6. “JOSEPH-WILD” BEHAVIOR

7. WE SHALL SPEAK OF
“JOSEPH-WILD” BEHAVIOR
WHEN THE WETTEST DECADE WITHIN A CENTURY
INCLUDES AN
EXTRAORDINARY “TERM”
OF WET YEARS.
“ ”
Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1968
Water Resources Research

8. “NOAH-WILD” BEHAVIOR

9. WE SHALL SPEAK OF
“NOAH-WILD” BEHAVIOR
WHEN A FEW OF THE YEARS WITHIN THE CENTURY
WITNESS
“FLOODS” SO MAJOR
SO AS TO AFFECT THE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
FOR PERIODS OF MANY YEARS
WITHIN WHICH THE FLOOD YEARS OCCURRED.
“ ”
Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1968
Water Resources Research

10. “IDIOSYNCRASIES”

15. Source: Baillie, Journal of Econometrics, 1996
TREE RINGS AS CASE STUDIES IN ECONOMETRICS

16. 80o
S
60o
S
40o
S
0o
S
0o
N
40o
N
60
o
N
80
o
N
PAGES 2K network (Phase 2) as of 21Jan2015 (911 records from 758 sites)PAGES2K NETWORK (PHASE 2)
Source: Dr. Nick McKay, Northern Arizona University

18. WATERSHED REGION HEMISPHERE

20. 1SETTING THE RECORD ON THE RED

22. 2THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST: SIGNAL OR QUIRK?

24. 3THE DECADAL CLIMATE CONUNDRUM

26. RINGS
IN THE BRANCHES OF
SAWED TREES SHOW
THE NUMBER OF YEARS
AND, ACCORDING TO THEIR
THICKNESS,
THE YEARS WHICH WERE
MORE OR LESS
DRY.
“ ”
Leonardo da Vinci

27. HOW MANY TREE RINGS
CAN YOU COUNT?

29. Source: Dr. Dan Griffin, University of Minnesota

30. 1871 1872 1873 1874
Source: Dr. Dan Griffin, University of Minnesota

31. Dr. Dan Griffin University of Minnesota

32. Source: Dr. Dan Griffin, University of Minnesota

33. Sarah Appleton University of Minnesota

35. Source: Sarah Appleton, University of Minnesota

36. 1809 1811 181218081807
Source: Sarah Appleton, University of Minnesota

39. WATERSHED REGION HEMISPHERE

40. 1SETTING THE RECORD ON THE RED

42. FFAFLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

43. Source: Todhunter, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2012
MAXIMUM FLOOD ESTIMATES ARE STRONGLY INFLUENCED
BY THE VERY LARGEST FLOODS

44. Source: FlickrLiren Chen
THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH

45. THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH

46. Source: AP Photo/U.S. Coast Guard, Lt. Brendan Evans
2009

47. Source: Dr. Greg Brooks, Geological Survey of Canada
1997

48. 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
discharge (cfs) at Grand Forks, North Dakota
INSTRUMENTAL DISCHARGE RECORDS BEGAN IN THE 1890S/1900S

49. THE RED RIVER SETTLEMENT

50. TOP TEN RED RIVER FLOODS BY DISCHARGE
0
60,000
120,000
180,000
240,000
2006 1996 1979 1950 2011 1861 2009 1997 1852 1826
discharge (cfs)
Source: Manitoba Conservation and Water Stewardship
historical reports
river gauges

51. THE FORTS NOW STAND LIKE
A CASTLE OF ROMANCE
IN THE MIDST OF
AN OCEAN OF
DEEP CONTENDING CURRENTS,
THE WATER EXTENDING
FOR AT LEAST A MILE BEHIND THEM…
“ ”
Francis Heron of the Hudson’s Bay Company
May 1826

52. IS THERE
PHYSICAL EVIDENCE FOR
THIS EXCEPTIONAL FLOOD?

54. 24
OAK TREE RINGS
(NORMAL ANATOMY)

55. 28
OAK TREE RINGS
(SHRUNKEN VESSELS)
2009

57. 200

58. 1875

59. Source: Dr. Erik Nielsen, Manitoba Geological Survey

60. 53
Source: Dr. Erik Nielsen, Manitoba Geological Survey

61. 1852

62. 55
Source: St. George and Nielsen, The Holocene, 2003
1826

63. Source: St. George and Nielsen, The Holocene, 2003
350 YEARS OF RED RIVER FLOODS

64. Dr. Victor Baker University of Arizona

65. THE HISTORY OF PAST FLOODS,
NOT THE HISTORICAL IDEALIZATION
OF THEIR FUTURE POSSIBILITIES,
IS THE UNDERSTANDABLE BASIS
UPON WHICH PEOPLE
MAY BE GUIDED TO EFFECTIVE ACTION.
“ ”
Baker et al., 2002
The Scientific and Societal Value of Paleoflood Research

66. River diversion
Main channel
WINNIPEG
POPULATION: 680,000
Source: Dr. Greg Brooks, Geological Survey of Canada

68. $1.8BFARG0-MOORHEAD DIVERSION

69. “JOSEPH-WILD” BEHAVIOR

70. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST

71. 2THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST: SIGNAL OR QUIRK?

72. LOW-
HIGH-
FREQUENCY BEHAVIOR

73. Source: Flickrけんたま/KENTAMA

74. 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
56
56.5
57
57.5
58
58.5
59
Source: NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies
Mean annual temperature (°F)
GLOBAL LAND-OCEAN TEMPERATURE INDEX
‘RED’

75. 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
‘WHITE’
total annual precipitation (mm)
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN DES MOINES, IOWA
Source: Global Historical Climate Network

76. Central Pacific Coast

77. 1920 1960 2000
−400
0
400
Regional winter precipitation anomalies (mm)
Ault and St. George, Journal of Climate, 2010
CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST

78. 1920 1960 2000
−400
0
400
Regional winter precipitation anomalies (mm)
Ault and St. George, Journal of Climate, 2010
CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST

79. Source: California Department of Water Resources
Florsheim, JL, De inger, MD, 2007. Climate and
floods still govern California levee breaks.
Geophysical Research Le ers.

80. Ault and St. George, Journal of Climate, 2010
STRONG DECADAL VARIABILITY SYNCHRONIZES
RAINFALL, STREAMFLOW, AND HAZARDS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

81. PREDICTIVE
CAPACITY

82. THE HISTORY OF METEOROLOGY
IS LITTERED WITH
THE WHITENED BONES OF CLAIMS
TO HAVE DEMONSTRATED
THE EXISTENCE OF RELIABLE CYCLES
IN THE WEATHER.
“ ”
William James Burroughs
Weather Cycles: Real or Imaginary?

83. FORCED? STOCHASTIC?

84. CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK

85. Dr. David Stahle University of Arkansas

86. Source: Dr. Dan Griffin, University of Minnesota
QUERCUS DOUGLASII

87. 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Tree growth (anomalies)
−0.4
0.4
0
1650
ring-width records
mean of set
Source: St. George and Ault, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 2011
TREE RINGS INDICATE
THE 20TH CENTURY WAS UNUSUALLY DECADAL

88. Source: NOAA
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

89. Xiaolu Li Cornell University

91. Li et al., unpublished
WHERE IS DEC-CEN VARIABILITY VIGOROUS?
AD 1850 - 2005

92. Li et al., unpublished
WHERE IS DEC-CEN VARIABILITY VIGOROUS?
AD 1850 - 2005

93. FORCED? STOCHASTIC?

94. PREDICTIVE
CAPACITY

95. 3THE DECADAL CLIMATE CONUNDRUM

96. DECADAL
CLIMATE
VARIABILITY

98. … THE USE OF
HIGH-RESOLUTION PROXY DATA
SHOULD BE EXPANDED BECAUSE
THE SHORT OBSERVATIONAL RECORD
AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY
ARE UNABLE TO SIMULATE
[DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY]…
“ ”
Mehta et al., 2011
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

99. PACIFIC
DECADAL
OSCILLATION

100. 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Source: Dr. Nate Mantua, University of Washington
THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) IS A LONG-LIVED
EL NIÑO-LIKE PATTERN OF PACIFIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY.

102. D’ARRIGO AND WILSON, 2006
“ON THE ASIAN EXPRESSION OF THE PDO”
81 CITATIONS
D’ARRIGO ET AL, 2001
“TREE-RING ESTIMATES OF PACIFIC DECADAL
CLIMATE VARIABILITY”
226 CITATIONS
BIONDI ET AL., 2001
“NORTH PACIFIC DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY
SINCE 1661 ”
440 CITATIONS
GEDALOF AND SMITH, 2001
“INTERDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND
REGIME-SCALE SHIFTS IN PACIFIC NORTH
AMERICA”
227 CITATIONS
MCDONALD AND CASE, 2005
“VARIATIONS IN THE PACIFIC DECADAL
OSCILLATION OF THE PAST MILLENNIUM”
253 CITATIONS

103. Dr. Kurt Kipfmueller University of Minnesota

104. ANY CONCLUSION THAT
EXTENSIVE WILDFIRES ARE
MORE OR LESS COMMON
WHEN THE PDO IS
IN ONE PHASE OR THE OTHER
DEPENDS ENTIRELY
ON THE CHOICE OF PDO RECONSTRUCTION.
“ ”
Kipfmueller et al., 2012
Geophysical Research Le ers

105. ADVANTAGE
DISADVANTAGE
Short relative to
decadal timescales
Grounded
in reality
Too sensitive to
solar and volcanic forcing?
Simulations are much longer
than the timescale of interest
Long records
grounded in reality
Proxy systems may distort
or exaggerate decadal signals
THE DECADAL CLIMATE CONUNDRUM

106. TWO CASES
ILLUSTRATING
THE
DECADAL
CLIMATE

108. INSTRUMENTAL AND PALEOCLIMATE DATA INDICATE
THAT NATURAL HYDROCLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS TEND
TO BE MORE ENERGETIC AT LOW (MULTIDECADAL TO
MULTICENTURY) THAN AT HIGH (INTERANNUAL)
FREQUENCIES. STATE-OF-THE-ART GLOBAL CLIMATE
MODELS DO NOT CAPTURE THIS CHARACTERISTIC OF
HYDROCLIMATE VARIABILITY, SUGGESTING THAT THE
MODELS UNDERESTIMATE THE RISK OF FUTURE
PERSISTENT DROUGHTS.
“ ”
Ault et al, 2014
Journal of Climate

110. Source: Franke et al., Nature Climate Change, 2013

112. “JOSEPH-WILD” BEHAVIOR

113. USING A GAUSS-MARKOV PROCESS
IMPLIES FITTING
HIGH FREQUENCY EFFECTS FIRST
AND WORRYING ABOUT
LOW FREQUENCY EFFECTS LATER.
“ ”
Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1968
Water Resources Research

114. OUR STUDY GIVES EVIDENCE
THAT ATTENTION TO
THE SPECTRAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE ORIGINAL PROXY SERIES
IS NEEDED.
“ ”
Franke et al., 2013
Nature Climate Change

115. 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
−1
0
1 10 to 50 yr
1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
−2
0
2 >10 yr
IS TREE GROWTH IN NEW MEXICO
LESS SPATIALLY COHERENT AT LONG TIMESCALES?

116. Pinus
Picea
Quercus
Pseudotsuga
Larix
Nothofagus
Austrocedris
Phyllocladus
Agathis
Source: St. George, PAGES News, 2014
THERE ARE MORE THAN 3,200
PUBLICLY-AVAILABLE TREE-RING RECORDS
(AND MANY MORE HELD BY INDIVIDUAL INVESTIGATORS).

117. FALSE
DISCOVERY
RATE

118. Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
LESS THAN ONE IN SEVEN
TREE-RING WIDTH RECORDS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
ARE SIGNIFICANTLY CORRELATED WITH THE PDO.

119. Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
LESS THAN ONE IN SEVEN
TREE-RING WIDTH RECORDS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
ARE SIGNIFICANTLY CORRELATED WITH THE PDO.

124. BUT SOMEHOW, OVERALL,
HISTORY
IS POTENT ENOUGH TO DELIVER, ON TIME,
IN THE MEDIUM OR LONG RUN
MOST OF THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS,
AND TO EVENTUALLY
BURY THE BAD GUY.
“ ”
Nassim Taleb
Fooled By Randomness

127. Dr. Hal Fri s University of Arizona

128. THEREFORE, THE TREE
MAY BE THOUGHT OF AS
A “WINDOW” OR FILTER
WHICH, BY MEANS OF THE PHYSIOLOGICAL PROCESS,
PASSES AND CONVERTS
A CERTAIN CLIMATIC OR ENVIRONMENTAL INPUT
INTO A CERTAIN RING-WIDTH OUTPUT.
“ ”
Fri s, 1971
Quaternary Research