We all know VUCA when we see it (just watch the news) But how do you know you are managing it well? We can all describe the situations But what comparisons can we make to illustrate how to, and how not to manage it Do you really “get it” in a way you can action? This document is an attempt to highlight differences between those that get it, from those who don’t. www.bloomport.com

1. VUCA VictimsandVUCA Masters …and how you can tell the difference S. Grubb - Sept 2009 www.bloomport.com

2. Objective We all know VUCA when we see it (just watch the news) But how do you know you are managing it well? We can all describe the situations But what comparisons can we make to illustrate how to, and how not to manage it Do you really “get it” in a way you can action? This document is an attempt to highlight differences between those that get it, from those who don’t.

3. VUCA: Volatility Victim of Volatility Master of Volatility Is Blindsided by volatility Panics in the face of volatility, no tools to manage Solves today’s issues as they happen Does not consider what might happen in the future Is inwardly focused, content on knowing what they know and not concerned with the external Blind to cause and effect relationships Anticipates wild volatility Calmly accepts volatility, has a backup plan Thinks about tomorrows risks before they happen Continually assessing risks, looking for the Black Swan Event Continually expanding scope of understanding and improving “sensing” skills Understand the butterfly effect, a small change in one area can produce volatile results in another

4. VUCA: Uncertainty Victim of Uncertainty Master of Uncertainty See only one outcome and does not think beyond the immediate dimension regardless of probabilities Sees only problems with potential outcomes Clings to existing processes even when they are inadequate Unaware of experiential bias to resolving issues Rely on past solution to solve today’s issues Content with the drumbeat or “the way things are” and sees no need to challenge status quo Concerned with the here and now Able to see a range of outcomes and thinks in terms of confidence intervals Sees uncertain times as opportunities to make bold moves Recognizes issues with current state and seeks to adapt Understands own experiential bias and how that impacts solutions Looks for flaws in past solutions to today’s problems Challenge “batch” mentality and seeks to become adaptable via real-time and shorter cycles Concerned with the future, looking for the weak signals which are the harbingers of change

5. VUCA: Complexity Victim of Complexity Master of Complexity Overwhelmed by complexity Translates complexity in complex ways Unable to simplify messages (more is better) Distracted or focused on small details (usually in area of expertise) Unable to define the scope of the problem, tries to solve everything Rushes to solve the issue without looking at the root Looks at the issue, but ignores the environment, context, and potential causes Rushes to solve everything Struggles to understand the entire issue prior to moving forward Undaunted by complexity Able to break complex issues into consumable pieces Cuts complexity to clarity (less is more) Looks first at the big picture and centers focus on the important Define what’s in/out of scope and clearly outlines the issue at hand Able to quickly sift through detail & pull out most important Considers the context of the issue & the environmental relationship Prioritize the work first Relies on the expertise of others and trusts their judgment

6. VUCA: Ambiguity Victim of Ambiguity Master of Ambiguity Uncomfortable with ambiguity, seeks out structure & direction Ignores ambiguity and reverts back to the known Uncomfortable with diversity, prefers a homogeneous environment where everything is controlled and the same Sees only one issue or solution, misses the range Considers only their own viewpoint, cannot see others Unable to identify the right issue or starting point, and may not even acknowledge the issue Tends to default or focus on known or past issues Requires more analysis and information prior to action Sets a path and plows forward regardless of a changing environment Sees ambiguity as a “choose your own adventure” opportunity Use ambiguity to innovate and find a competitive advantage Seeks out diversity, uses different points of view to “see around corners” and expect the unexpected Able to see more than one issue, solution, or situation Able to morph into every possible view point and fairly critique Has a sense for pending issues and once identified, is able to frame issues and scenarios Is not adverse to “starting over” with a fresh perspective Able to make sense based on data available filling in blanks with insight and experience Assesses need, solutions provided and makes course corrects as needed

7. Sources VUCA Sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility,_uncertainty,_complexity_and_ambiguity http://leadinganswers.typepad.com/leading_answers/2009/03/vuca-lessons-for-agile.html http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?PubID=870 http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=641 http://www.kwfdn.org/map/node/vuca_communities.aspx http://www.slideshare.net/dcaron/its-a-vuca-world-cips-cio-march-5-2009-draft http://bloomport.com/2009/09/16/part-1-managing-the-volatility-of-vuca/ Photo Sources: http://www.flickr.com/photos/arbegofoto/3229030900/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/iantfoto/2903556741/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/dalgius/1374024233/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/annia316/754581568/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/dcdead/3263019086/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/slowburn/2986303105/

8. Tags VUCA, Volatility, Uncertainty, Complex, Ambiguous, Business, Innovation, Future,