3. Why Me? The wiser speakers refused to talk on this subject
4. Strategy Paradox The same strategies that have the highest probability of extreme success also have the highest probability of extreme failure--Guy Kawasaki http://simeons.wordpress.com/2007/02/21/guy-kawasaki-why-good-strategies-fail/
5. Case Study: PayPal How much risk did PayPal take on? Livingston, Jessica. Founders At Work. p6 (interview with Max Levchin)
6. Flawed Thinking About Startups Poor analysis of the wrong data in a mythological context
7. Poor Analysis of Startup Success Limited or inaccurate data Correlation vs. causation Omitted variable bias Sensationalism
8. Sample Bias Most of the industry’s effort is spent analyzing successes
22. The Score Company A Founders & execs did very well Investors were under water after IPO lock-out Company F Lead founder made $8M Investors got >=2x their money Company M Successful experiment inside a large VC firm
23. Failure is Data Efficient experimentation is critical to any evolutionary system
30. Corollary #2 You must ignore ecosystem and societal definitions of success
31. Corollary #3 You must not be afraid to fail in the eyes of others
32. Failure is Data At a minimum, you learn a lot about yourself
33. How Much Wealth Do You Want? For most people, the marginal utility of wealth diminishes rapidly
34. Wealth vs. Risk When you have nothing it may be easier to risk everything. However, a base level of wealth may allow for greater risk taking in the future
35. Rich vs. King You cannot grow beyond a certain point without ceding a lot of decision-making authority
36. Success in Emerging Markets The more turbulent the environment, the greater the benefit of ignoring established definitions of success
37. Success & Happiness It is much easier to be both happy & successful if you drive how success is measured
38. Conclusion As an entrepreneur, you have the right & responsibility to succeed your own way