Doms conclusive 13 july_1

Market Research

Conclusive Research Design

S. Kumaravel,
Alumni-DOMS 1

CONTENTS
1. Research Design - Definition
2. Research Design – Components
3. Research Design - Classification
4. Exploratory Research
5. Conclusive Research
6. Descriptive Research
7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
9. Budgeting & Scheduling
10. Market Research Proposal
2

CONCEPT OF CAUSALITY
• Experimentation is commonly used to infer causal
relationships. The scientific concept of causality is
complex.
• “Causality” means something very different to the
average person on the street than it does to a
scientist.
• A statement such as “X causes Y” will have many
meanings

3

Ordinary Meeting Scientific Meeting
• X is the only cause • X is the only one of a number
of Y. of possible causes of Y.
• X must always lead • The occurrence of X makes
to Y (X is a the occurrence of Y more
deterministic cause probable (X is a probabilistic
of Y) cause of Y)
• It is possible to • We can never prove that X is
prove that X is a a cause of Y. At best, we can
cause of Y infer that X is a cause of Y.

4

CONDITIONS FOR CAUSALITY
Before making causal inferences or assuming
causality, 3 conditions must be satisfied:

3. Concomitant Variation
4. Time order of occurrence of variables
5. Elimination of other possible causal
factors

5

CONCOMITANT VARIATION
CV is the extent to which a cause X and an effect Y
occur together or vary together in the way
predicted by hypothesis. Qualitative & Quantitative
Evidence of Concomitant Variation between Purchase
of Fashion Clothing & Education
Purchase of Fashion Clothing`

High Low
73% 27%

64% 36%

6

Time Order of Occurrence of
Variables
States that the causing event must occur either before
or simultaneously with the effect.
Variation between in-store service & sales (Chennai
Silks & Pothys’)
In-store service

High Low
73% 27%

36% 64%

7

Absence of other possible
causal factors
Absence of other possible causal factors means
that the factor or variable being investigated
should be the only possible causal
explanation.
Better in-store service may be a cause of
increased sales if we can be sure that changes
in all other factors affecting sales, pricing,
advertising, level of distribution, product
quality, competition and so on were held
constant or otherwise controlled.
8

DEFINITIONS & CONCEPTS
Independent Variables : Variables are manipulated
by the researcher and whose effects are
measured and compared. (in-store radio advtg)
Test Units: Individuals, organisations etc whose
response to independent variables being studied
Dependent variables:

9

VALIDITY IN
EXPERIMENTATION
7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
10

EXTRANEOUS VARIABLES
7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
11

CLASSIFICATION OF
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
12

PRE-EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS
7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
13

TRUE EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS
7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
14

QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL
DESIGNS
7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
15

STATISTICAL DESIGNS
7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
16

LAB VS FIELD EXPERIMENTS
7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
17

EXPERIMENTAL VS NON
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS
7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
18

LIMITATIONS OF
EXPERIMENTATION
7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
19

APPLICATION : TEST
MARKETING
7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
20

DETERMINING A TEST
MARKETING STRATEGY
7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
21

7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
22

7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
23

7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
24

7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
25

7. Six Ws
8. Casual Research
26

Types of Research

Research Types

Exploratory Conclusive

Descriptive Causal

Experimental

Observational

27

Conclusive Research

• Conclusive research tends to be quantitative
research
• It can further be sub-divided into two major
categories: descriptive and causal.

28

Conclusive Research
Descriptive Research
• Provides data (usually quantitative) about the
population being studied.
• It can only describe the situation, not what
caused it.

29

Conclusive Research
Causal Research
• To determine whether there is a cause and
effect relationship between variables
• To determine whether a specific independent
variable is producing an effect on another
dependent variable.

30

Causal Research
There are two types of causal research:
• Experimental
• Observational (quasi-experimental)

31

Causal Research
There are two types of causal research:
• Experimental
• Observational (quasi-experimental)

Experimental and observational studies try to
demonstrate a causal relationship between
two variables.

32

Causal Research
• Experimental Research: In experimental
studies, units (people, etc.) are put into
control or exposure groups by the researcher.

33

Causal Research
Observational Research:
• In an observational study, members of the
control group are pre-determined. They can
be matched according to demographic
information to a member of the exposure
group.

34

Causal Research

Think of some examples of causal research.
Are they experimental or observational?

35

Causal Research
Examples of causal research:
• A drug trial for a new medication that has not
yet been approved by the FDA.
• A study testing the long-term health effects of
exposure to high levels of radiation.
• A study comparing asthma rates among
children who live on farms with those living in
urban areas.

36

Types of Research

Research Types


Descriptive Causal

Experimental

Observational

37

Differences Between Exploratory
and Conclusive Research
• Research Project Components: Research
Purpose
– Exploratory Research
• General: To generate insights about a situation
– Conclusive Research
• Specific: To verify insights and aid in selecting a course
of action

and Conclusive Research (Cont’d)
• Research Project Components: Data needs
• Vague
• Clear

• Research Project Components: Data sources
• Ill-defined
• Well-defined

• Research Project Components: Data collection
form
• Open-ended, rough
• Usually structured

• Research Project Components: Sample
• Relatively small; subjectively selected to maximize
generalization of useful insights
• Relatively large; objectively selected to permit
generalization of findings

• Research Project Components: Data collection
• Flexible; no set procedure
• Rigid; well-laid-out procedure

• Research Project Components: Data analysis
• Informal; typically non-quantitative
• Formal; typically quantitative

• Research Project Components:
Inferences/recommendations
• More tentative than final
• More final than tentative

Experimental (Cont’d)
Multi-group Design
Units

All variables stay the same Change one variable

Control Experimental
Group Group

Measure the differences.

Exploratory and Conclusive Research

EXPLORATORY CONCLUSIVE

Objectives To provide insight and To test specific expectations
understanding and examine relationships

Characteristics • Information needs are • Information needs are
loosely defined clearly defined
• Research process flexible • Research process is
and unstructured formal and structured
• Sample is small and non- • Sample are large and
representative representative
Findings Tentative
• Analysis is qualitative
Conclusive
• Analysis is quantitative

Outcome Generally followed by Findings used as input to
further exploratory or decision making
conclusive research

Introduction to Research Design

EXPLORATORY DESCRIPTIVE CAUSAL
Chap 4,7 Chap 5,6 Chap 8

Objective Discovery of Describe Determine cause
insights and respondent or and effect
relationships program
characteristics or
function
Characteristics • Flexible, • Prior • Variable
versatile formulation of manipulation
• Often the front- expectations • Control of
end of other • Pre-planned and mediating
designs structured variables
Methods • Secondary data • Secondary data • Experiments
• Expert surveys • Meta-analysis • Field
• Pilot surveys • Surveys Experiments
• Qualitative • Panels
designs • Observational
• Focus designs

groups

Exploratory vs. conclusive research

Exploratory research Conclusive research

• Insights and understanding of • Test specific hypothesis
the research problem and examine relationships
• Loose definition of • Clear definition of
information needed informational need
• Flexible (unstructured) • Formal and structured
research process research process
• Small and nonrepresentative • Representative and large
samples samples
• QUALITATIVE analysis of • QUANTITATIVE data
primary data analysis
• Preliminary to further • Conclusive results for
research decision making
Qualitative Research Methods

A Classification of Marketing Research Designs
Fig. 3.1

Research Design

Research Design Research Design

Descriptive Causal
Research Research

Cross-Sectional Longitudinal
Design Design

Single Cross- Multiple Cross-
Sectional Design Sectional Design

Exploratory & Conclusive Research Differences
Table 3.1

Objective: To provide insights and To test specific hypotheses
understanding. and examine relationships.

Character- Information needed is Information needed is clearly
istics: defined only loosely. defined. Research process is
Research process is flexible formal and structured. Sample
and unstructured. Sample is large and representative.
is small and non- Data analysis is quantitative.
representative. Analysis of
primary data is qualitative.

Findings Conclusive.
/Results: Tentative.

Outcome: Findings used as input into
Generally followed by decision making.
further exploratory or

A Comparison of Basic Research Designs
Table 3.2

Exploratory Descriptive Causal
Objective: Discovery of Describe market Determine cause
ideas and characteristics or and effect
insights functions relationships

Characteristics: Marked by the prior Manipulation of
Flexible, formulation of one or more
versatile specific hypotheses independent
variables
Preplanned and
structured design Control of other
Often the front mediating
end of total variables
research design Secondary data
Methods: Surveys Experiments
Expert surveys Panels
Pilot surveys Observation and
Secondary data other data
Qualitative

The Marketing Research Process
Step 1: Defining the Problem

Step 2: Developing an Approach to the Problem

Step 3: Formulating a Research Design

Step 4: Doing Field Work or Collecting Data

Step 5: Preparing and Analyzing Data

Step 6: Preparing and Presenting the Report

Research Design

• A master plan that specifies the
methods and procedures for
collecting and analyzing needed
information.

Tasks Involved In a Research Design
Define the Information Needed

Design the Exploratory, Descriptive, and/or Causal
Phases of the Research

Today’s
Specify the Measurement and Scaling Procedures
Topic

Construct a Questionnaire

Specify the Sampling Process and the Sample Size

Develop a Plan of Data Analysis

A Classification of Market Research Designs
Research
Design

Research Research

Secondary Experience Pilot Studies Case Studies
Data Surveys

See next slide

A Classification of Market Research Designs
Research
Design

Research Research

See previous slide

Cross-sectional
Study
Descriptive Causal
Longitudinal Design Design
Study

Experiment

Secondary
Survey Observation
Data Study

Exploratory Research
• Usually conducted during the initial stage of the
research process
• Purposes
– To narrow the scope of the research topic, and
– To transform ambiguous problems into well-defined
ones

Exploratory Research Techniques
• Secondary Data Analysis
– Secondary data are data previously collected & assembled
for some project other than the one at hand
• Pilot Studies
– A collective term for any small-scale exploratory research
technique that uses sampling but does not apply rigorous
standards
– Includes
• Focus Group Interviews
– Unstructured, free-flowing interview with a small group of people
• Projective Techniques
– Indirect means of questioning that enables a respondent to project
beliefs and feelings onto a third party or an inanimate object
– Word association tests, sentence completion tests, role playing

Exploratory Research Techniques

• Case Studies
– Intensively investigate one or a few situations
similar to the problem situation
• Experience Surveys
– Individuals who are knowledge about a particular
research problem are questioned

Conclusive Research
• Provide specific information that aids the decision
maker in evaluating alternative courses of action
• Sound statistical methods & formal research
methodologies are used to increase the reliability of
the information
• Data sought tends to be specific & decisive
• Also more structured & formal than exploratory data

Types of Conclusive Research
• Descriptive Research
– Describes attitudes, perceptions, characteristics, activities
and situations.
– Examines who, what, when, where, why, & how questions
• Causal Research
– Provides evidence that a cause-and-effect relationship exists
or does not exist.
– Premise is that something (and independent variable)
directly influences the behavior of something else (the
dependent variable).

Common Characteristics of
Descriptive Studies
• Build on previous information
• Show relationships between variables
• Representative samples required
• Structured research plans
• Require substantial resources
• Conclusive findings

Major Types of Descriptive Studies
Descriptive
Studies

Consumer Market Characteristic
Sales Studies
Perception Studies
And Behavior
Studies
Market Distribution

Potential Image Competitive
Analysis
Market Product Usage
Share
Advertising
Sales
Pricing
Analysis

Cross Sectional vs. Longitudinal
Designs
Cr o s s Sample
S e c t io n a l Surveyed at
De s ig n T1

Sam e
L o n g it u d in a l Sample Sample also
De s ig n Surveyed at Surveyed at
T1 T2

Time T1 T2

Cross-Sectional vs. Longitudinal Designs

Cross-Sectional Longitudinal

Detecting change Worse Better

Amount of data Worse Better
collected
Accuracy Worse Better

Representativeness Better Worse

Response bias Better Worse

Some Alternative Research Designs
Exploratory
Research Conclusive
(a)
Secondary Data Research
Analysis Descriptive/Causal
Focus Groups

Conclusive
(b)
Research
Descriptive/Causal

Exploratory
Conclusive
(c) Research
Research
Secondary Data
Descriptive/Causal
Analysis
Focus Groups

Common Characteristics of
Causal Studies
• Logical Time Sequence
– For causality to exist, the cause must either precede or occur
simultaneously with the effect
• Concomitant Variation
– Extent to which the cause and effect vary together as
hypothesized

• Control for Other Possible Causal Factors

How Descriptive & Causal
Designs Differ
• Relationship between the variables
– Descriptive designs determine degree of association
– Causal designs infer whether one or more variables influence
another variable
• Degree of environmental control
– Descriptive designs enjoy lesser degrees of control
• Order of the variables
– In descriptive designs, variables are not logically ordered

Comparison of Research Designs
Exploratory Descriptive Causal

Purpose ID problems, gain Describe things Determine cause-
insights and-effect
relationships

Assumed Minimal Considerable Considerable
background
knowledge
Degree of Very little High High
structure
Flexibility High Some Little
Sample Nonrepresentative Representative Representative
Research Relaxed Formal Highly controlled
environment
Cost Low Medium High
Findings Preliminary Conclusive Conclusive

Basic Research Methods
• Secondary Data Analysis
– Historical analysis
• Surveys
– Asking; self-reported
• Experiments
– Testing in controlled environments
• Observation
– Watching & recording

Which is the “Best” Research Design &
Method?
• “You cannot put the same shoe on every foot.”
– Publilius Syrus
• It depends on the
– problem of interest,
– level of information needed,
– resources,
– researcher’s experience, etc.

Survey Methods
Primary data are originated by a researcher for
the specific purpose of addressing the problem
at hand. The collection of primary data involves
all six steps of the marketing research process.
Secondary data are data which have already
been collected for purposes other than the
problem at hand. These data can be located
quickly and inexpensively.

76

Survey Methods Classified by
Mode of Administration

77

Survey Methods Classified by
Mode of Administration
Survey Questionnaires may be administered in
4 major modes:
2.Telephone Methods – Traditional & CATI
3.Personal Interviews – In-Home, Mall Intercept
& CAPI
4.Mail Interviews – Mail & Mail Panel
5.Electronic Viewing – E-mail & Internet

78

Telephone Methods
Traditional: Phoning a sample of respondents
and ask them a series of ques & records the
responses on paper quest. Using a pencil.
Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing –
CATI: Uses a computerized questionnaire
administered to respondents over telephone.
On command, computer dials the telephone
number to be called. The responses are directly
recorded in the computer thus reducing
interview time, coding, data entry process.
79

Telephone Methods -
Advantages
•Central location, under supervision, at own hours
•More interviews can be conducted in a given time
• Travelling time is saved
• Shorter data collection periods
•More hours of the day are productive
•Repeated call backs at lower cost (WATS)
•Absence of administrative costs
•Lower cost per completed interview
•Less sample bias due to non-response
•Intrusiveness of the phone
80
• Ease of call backs

Telephone Methods -
Advantages
•Inability to employ visual aids or complex tasks
• Interviewer must rely solely on verbal cues to judge
the reaction and understanding of respondents
• Can't be longer than 5-10 min. or they get boring
• Amount of data that can be collected is relatively
less
• A capable interviewer essential
• Potential for sample bias
• No phone, unlisted phone or mobile phones

81

Personal Methods
Personal In-home Interviews: Respondents
are interviewed in person in their homes.
Mall-intercept Personal Interviews: Mall
shoppers are intercepted and brought to
the test facilities in the malls where the
interview would be conducted.
Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing
(CAPI): Respondent sits in front of a
computer terminal and answers a
questionnaire using key board, assisted by
the researcher. + Purchase Intercept 82

Personal Methods -
Advantages
•Can arouse and keep interest
•Can build rapport
•Ask complex questions with the help of
visual and other aids
•Clarify misunderstandings
•High degree of flexibility
•Probe for more complete answers
•Good for neutral questions
•Do not need an explicit or current list of
households or individuals 83

Personal Methods –
Dis-advantages
•Bias of Interviewer
• Response Bias
• Embarrassing/personal questions (Money
& Age - DOB)
• Time Requirements
• Cost Per Completed Interview Is High
• Trained staff of interviewers geographically
near the sample required
84

Self Administration Surveys–
Advantages
•Ease of presenting questions requiring
visual aids.
•Asking questions with long or complex
response categories is facilitated.
•Asking batteries of similar questions is
possible.

85

Self Administration Surveys–
Disadvantages
•Especially careful questionnaire design is
needed.
•Open questions usually are not useful.
•Good reading and writing skills are needed by
respondents.
•The interviewer is not present to exercise
quality control with respect to answering all
questions, meeting questions objectives, or the
quality of answers provided. 86

Mail Methods
Mail Interviews: Questionnaires are mailed
to potential respondents.(return envelope)
Mail Panels: Panel consists of a large,
nationally representative sample of
households that agreed to participate in
periodic mail questionnaires, product tests
and telephone surveys.
National Family Opinion, Market Fact’s
Consumer Mail Panel, Marketing and
Research Counselors’ National
Neighborhood panel, Home testing Inst. 87

Mail Methods
Requires a broad identification of the individuals to
be sampled before data collection begins
Some Decisions That Need to Be Taken Are:
•Type of Return Envelope
•Postage
•Method of Addressing
•Cover Letter
•The Questionnaire Length, Layout, Color, Format etc
•Method of Notification
•Incentive to Be Given
88

Mail Methods - Advantages
•Lower cost
• Better results, including a shorter
response time
• Reliable answers as no inhibiting
intermediary
• Survey answered at respondents’
discretion
89

Mail Methods - Disadvantages
•The identity of the respondent is inadequately
controlled
•No control over whom the respondent
consults before answering the questions
•The speed of the response can't be monitored
•No control on the order in which the questions
are exposed and answered
•Respondents’ understanding of the questions
90

Electronic Methods
E-Mail Interviews: Survey written within
the body of e-mail message is sent to
respondents to their e-mail addresses. Use
ASCII.
Internet Interviews: Use HTML, web
language & post them on a web site.
Respondents recruited on-line from
potential databases, maintained by MR
firm, are asked to complete the survey.

91

A comparative Evaluation of
Survey Methods
• Flexibility of data collection
• Diversity of questions
• Use of physical stimuli
• Sample control
• Control of data collection environment
• Control of field force
• Quantity of data
• Response rate
• Perceived Anonymity
• Social Desirability 92

Flexibility of Data Collection
• Determined primarily by the extent to which
respondent can interact with the interviewer
and the survey questionnaire.
• Mail Survey, mail panels and e-mail surveys
have low flexibility.
• Telephone interview – moderate flexibility
• Personal interview (@home / mall-intercept)
allows highest flexibility of data collection.
• CATI, CAPI & Internet surveys allow greater
flexibility due to interactive mode.
93

Diversity of Questions
• Diversity of questions that can be asked in a
survey depends on the degree of interaction the
respondent has with the interviewer and the
questionnaire, as well the respondents’ ability
to actually see the questions.
• Wide variety of ques can be asked in a
personal interview as respondents can see the
ques and interviewer to clarify ambiguities.
• In Internet surveys, diversity of ques is
moderate to high.
94

Use of Physical Stimuli
• Necessary to use physical stimuli such as
product, a product prototype, commercials or
promotional displays.
• A taste test for eg in personal interview (Ruchi
Pickle); mail panels gives average success.
• Use of physical stimuli is limited in traditional
telephone interviews and CATI as well as in e-
mail surveys.
• Internet survey moderately suitable.

95

Sample Control
•Sample Control: Ability of the survey mode to
reach the units specified in the sample effectively
and efficiently.
• Sampling Frame: A representation of the elements
of the target population. It consists of a list or set of
directions for identifying the target population.
• Moderate to high sampling control can be
achieved with traditional telephone interviews and
CATI.
• Telephones offer access to a geographically
dispersed respondents. 96

Control of Field Force
• Field force is the interviewers and the
supervisors involved in data collection.
• Traditional telephone interviews, CATI, mall-
intercept, and CAPI offer moderate degrees of
control because interviews are conducted at
central location, making supervision relatively
simple.
• Many interviewers work in many different
locations, making supervision highly a difficult
task.
• For Eg. Survey on in 4 states. 97

Quantity of Data
• Personal interviews allow large amounts of data
collection. (4 different types of people ?)
• Mall intercept & CAPI provide only moderate
amounts of data.
• Typically the interview time is 30 minutes or less.
• Mail surveys yield moderate amounts of data.
• Mail panels can generate large amounts of data
•For eg Hotels lure visitors to undertake survey to
get instant money.

98

Response Data
• The percentage of total attempted interviews
that are completed.
• Personal, in-home, mall-intercept and CAPI
yield the highest response rate (> 80%).
• Not-at-homes can be resolved by calling back
at different times.
• Telephone interviews, traditional and CATI
yield response rates between 60 & 80%.
• Non response bias : For eg Husband answer
for Wife & vice versa
99

Perceived Anonymity
• Refers to the respondents’ perceptions that
their identities will not be discerned by the
interviewer or the researcher.
• Perceived anonymity of the respondent is high
in mail surveys, mail panels and internet
surveys because there is no contact with an
interviewer while responding.
• Low in personal interviews
• Moderate with e-mail.

100

Potential For Interviewer Bias
• Interviewer selects wrong respondents
• Omitting research questions
• record answers incorrectly / incompletely.
• Understand the respondents wrongly.
• IN-home and Mall-intercept personal
interviews are highly susceptible to
interviewers’ bias.
• Telephone & CATI are less susceptible.
• Mail surveys, mail panels, e-mail and internet
surveys are free from it.
101

Observation Methods
• The recording of behavioural patterns of
people, objects and events in a systematic
manner to obtain information about the
phenomenon of interest.
• Structured: Researcher clearly defines the
behaviours to be observed and the methods by
which they will be measured.
• Un-Structured: Research monitoring all
relevant phenomenon without specifying the
details in advance.
102

Observation Methods classified by
mode of administration
Observation Methods

Personal Mechanical Content Trace
Audit
Observation Observation Analysis Analysis

103

Personal Observation
• In which human observers record the
phenomenon being observed as it occurs.
• He / she does not attempt to control or
manipulate the phenomenon being
observed.
• The observer merely records what takes
place in a natural or a contrived
environment.
• For Eg. A researcher records traffic
counts and observe traffic flows in a dept.
store. 104

Mechanical Observation
• An observational research strategy in which
mechanical devices record the phenomenon
being observed.
• Psychogalvanometer: An instrument that
measures a respondent’s galvanic skin
response (ie increased perspiration) to
advertisements, packages & slogans.
• Voice Pitch Analysis: Measurement of
emotional reactions through changes in the
respondents’ voice.
• Response Latency: Amount of time it takes to
answer a ques. 105

Audit
• In an audit, researcher collects data by
examining physical records or performing
inventory analysis. 2 distinguishing features:
• First data are collected personally by the
researcher.
• Second The data are based on counts,
usually of physical counts.
• In Pantry Audit, researcher takes an
inventory of brands, quantities, and package
sizes in a consumer’s home.
106

Content Analysis
• The objective, systematic and quantitative
description of the manifest content of a
communication.
• It includes observation of words(different words
or type of words), characters (individuals or
objects), themes (propositions), space and time
measures (length or duration of the message), or
topics (subject to the message).
• Content Analysis of Advt, Newspaper articles, TV
and radio programs.
107

Trace Analysis
• In Trade Analysis, data
collection is based on physical
traces, or evidence, of past
behaviour.
• The no. of different
fingerprints on a page was used
to gauge the readership of
various advertisements in a
magazine.

108

THANK YOU
Any Questions

Any Questions

109

Doms conclusive 13 july_1

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