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Bringing Agility to Business Development
Somik Raha, Associate
SmartOrg, Inc
smartorg.com
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.1
Legal Stuff
This deck is licensed under the Creative Commons – Attribution – No
Derivatives 3.0 License.
Please feel free to contact sraha@smartorg.com if you have any
questions.
© 2000-2013 SmartOrg. | For Classroom Use Only. Not for distribution.2
Agenda
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.3
Evaluate
option
value
Introduction
• Business Development
• The Agile Manifesto
• Current State
• Values
Definition of Business Development
Business Development is the turning of an idea into a
marketable business asset
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.4
Agile Software Development greatly increases
quality and productivity
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.5
Collaborative development
Working software
Customer collaboration
Responding to change
Processes and tools
Comprehensive documentation
Contract negotiation
Following a plan
OVER
The Agile Manifesto
We value…
That is, while there is value in the items on
the right, we value the items on the left more.
Current Business Development vs. Agile Business
Development
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.6
Processes and tools
Comprehensive paperwork
Contract negotiation
Following a plan
Processes and tools
Comprehensive documentation
Contract negotiation
Following a plan
Collaborative Development
Working business models
Customer collaboration
Responding to change
CURRENT BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT FOCUS
AGILE BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT FOCUS
NON-AGILE SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT FOCUS
Collaborative Development
Working software
Customer collaboration
Responding to change
AGILE SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT FOCUS
Poll: What role do you play in your organization?
1. Business Development
2. Marketing/Sales
3. Product Management
4. Product Development
5. Project Management
6. Engineering
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.7
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.8
Collaborative Development
Working business models
Customer collaboration
Responding to change
Agile practices support the Agile manifesto
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.9
Collaborative Development
Working business models
Customer collaboration
Responding to change
What practices get us to the goalpost?
?
Agenda
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.10
Evaluate
option
value
Business
Development:
Turning idea into
marketable
business asset
Market
Performance:
Given business
development has
succeeded, how
will this product
fare in the
market?
Combined Value:
What dollar
amount represents
our option value
of developing this
idea as a business
given where we
are right now?
Introduction
Agenda
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.11
Evaluate
option
value
Introduction
Business development is about managing
increasing amounts of investment
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.12
Time
Cashflow
Agile business development is about
learning/failing/succeeding quickly
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.13
Time
Cashflow
We will communicate Agile Business
Development with a catalog of patterns
“Each pattern describes a problem which occurs over
and over again in our environment, and then describes
the core of the solution to that problem, in such a way
that you can use this solution a million times over, without
ever doing it the same way twice.”
“What is a design pattern?” from Design Patterns: Elements of Reusable Object-
Oriented Software by Gamma et al., 1995
Elements of a pattern: pattern name, problem, solution, image* and
consequences
* optional
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.14
Evidential Work
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.15
Pattern: Evidential Work
When investing serious money behind an idea, it is easy to be
distracted away from the evidence needed to justify the investment
by the work that needs to be done.
Therefore, design work to deliver evidence as quickly as possible
Consequences
A clear idea of the proof needed to justify investment, the work
needed to deliver that proof, the cost and the schedule of that
work
Related Patterns: Communicate evidential work with “Learning
Plans”
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.16
The Mortgage Question
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.17
What do you need to see before mortgaging
your house to fund this project?
Simulation: βCorp
Makes statistical data
analysis products
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.18
New
Product
Allows analysis of the effectiveness of marketing campaigns
by examining social media chatter for emotional content
around the product.
This product will help βCorp enter the social media space.
What evidence do you need to see before mortgaging your house on this product?
Simulation: Evidential Work
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.19
Phase 1: Develop
Value Proposition,
Get Approval
•Customer Enthusiasm
•βCorp Sponsorship
Phase 2: Prove
Value Proposition
with Customers
•Technical Performance
•Customer Commitment
Phase 3: Prepare to
Scale
•Robust Pipeline
•Scalable Business Case
• Solicit pilot customers
• Business case analysis
• Obtain right to pursue
• Requirements / gap analysis =>
technical roadmap
• Preliminary offer
• Pre-sales, talk to customers
• Incubation structure defined
Investment: $0.5M
4 FTE x 6 month x $200K = $400K
Expenses = $100K
• Conduct 2-4 customer pilots across
areas - map processes, demonstrate
value
• Fill gaps in platform and services
• Capture learning
• Build resources / PMO
• Plan G2M / business
• Extend / revise roadmap
• Advance needed technology
• Define full platform
Investment: $4M
20 FTE x 1 year x $150K = $3M
Expenses, capital = $1M
• Complete, harden platform
• Establish channel / G2M
• Sales / BD
• Marketing / communication
• Set up P&L / organization
• Deliver operationally to first pilots
• Conduct additional pilots of new kinds
• Support structure
Investment: $6M
Team, Expenses as in Phase II = $4M
Sales, Business Development = $1M
Support, infrastructure = $1M
Learning Plans
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.20
Pattern: Learning Plans
When communicating development plans, it is easy to lose sight of the
learning needed to justify further investment.
Therefore, depict key stages of evidence needed and the work
needed to deliver that evidence on a timescale
Consequences
A simple timeline that communicates key evidential stages, the work
involved (details and investment) and the sequence.
Related Patterns: Evidential Work and Evidence Assessment
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.21
Simulation: βMark Learning Plan
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.22
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10
βMark
Phase I – Develop
Value Proposition,
Get Approval
• Solicit pilot customers
• Business case analysis
• Obtain right to pursue
• Requirements / gap
analysis => technical
roadmap
• Preliminary offer
• Pre-sales, talk to
customers
• Incubation structure
defined
Investment: $0.5M
4 FTE x 6 month x
$200K = $400K
Expenses = $100K
Phase II – Prove Value Proposition with
Customers
Customer enthusiasm,
βCorp sponsorship
• Conduct 2-4 customer pilots across areas - map
processes, demonstrate value
• Fill gaps in platform and services
• Capture learning
• Build resources / PMO
• Plan G2M / business
• Extend / revise roadmap
• Advance needed technology
• Define full platform
Investment: $4M
20 FTE x 1 year x $150K = $3M
Expenses, capital = $1M
Technical performance,
Customer commitment
Key: Major Phase
• Work during phase
• Phase Investment
• Proof points at milestone
Cumulative investment
through launch
Total: $10.5M
P&L commit May 11
Phase III – Prepare to Scale
• Complete, harden platform
• Establish channel / G2M
• Sales / BD
• Marketing / communication
• Set up P&L / organization
• Deliver operationally to first pilots
• Conduct additional pilots of new kinds
• Support structure
Investment: $6M
Team, Expenses as in Phase II = $4M
Sales, Business Development = $1M
Support, infrastructure = $1M
Robust pipeline,
Scalable business case
Evidence Assessment
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.23
Pattern: Evidence Assessment
Different people understand different things when talking about
uncertainty in a qualitative fashion, which makes communication
difficult.
Therefore, assess calibrated probabilities for each point of
evidence, multiplying to get overall probability of success
Consequences
A simple quantitative understanding of uncertainty that is
comparable across projects.
Related Patterns: Evidential Work and Evidence Assessment
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.24
Simulation: Comparing projects by their phase
allows us to calibrate
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.25
Why does a Phase 1
project have such a high
probability?
After recalibrating
Idea
Prove
Scale
Idea
Prove
Scale
Pattern: Reasons Behind Numbers
People can get into a mindless number game and lose sight of the
real purpose of uncertainty assessments – to discover learning
gaps.
Therefore, before accepting numbers, obtain reasons for them.
Consequences
The logic behind the numbers is made transparent, facilitating
team learning.
Related Patterns: Evidential Work and Evidence Assessment
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.26
Pattern: Blind Polls
People can follow power and feel shy to share what they truly know.
Therefore, disallow calling out numbers in a group, forcing each
member to write down their number and then collect it when all are
done
Consequences
Differences in numbers become transparent and drive discussion in
learning gaps, leading to possible adjustment after the group has
new knowledge
Related Patterns: Evidential Work and Evidence Assessment
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.27
Simulation: Evidence Assessment of Phase 2:
Prove Value Proposition with Customers
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.28
Phase 1: Develop
Value Proposition,
Get Approval
•Customer Enthusiasm
•βCorp Sponsorship
Phase 2: Prove
Value Proposition
with Customers
•Technical Performance
•Customer Commitment
Phase 3: Prepare to
Scale
•Robust Pipeline
•Scalable Business Case
Simulation: Evidence Assessment of Phase 2:
Prove Value Proposition with Customers
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.29
Phase 1: Develop
Value Proposition,
Get Approval
•Customer Enthusiasm
•βCorp Sponsorship
Phase 2: Prove
Value Proposition
with Customers
•Technical Performance
•Customer Commitment
Phase 3: Prepare to
Scale
•Robust Pipeline
•Scalable Business Case
Technical Performance
Run Human Control Group,
• βMark picks 90% of all actual chatter
• βMark distinguishes correctly between +ve and –ve
feelings at least 90% of the time
Customer Commitment
• At least one customer signs up for company-wide
adoption
Simulation: Evidence Assessment of Phase 2:
Prove Value Proposition with Customers
• Technical Performance
• Human Control Group confirms that βMark picks 90% of all
actual chatter
In your chat:
List reasons for success
List reasons for failure
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.30
Simulation: Evidence Assessment Summary
Human Control Group confirms that βMark picks 90% of all
actual chatter
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.31
Success
Failure
Reasons for Success
• Lab results promising
Reasons for Failure:
• We’ve never done this
before
Given these reasons for success
and failure, what is your probability
of success?
Simulation: Probability of Success of Phase 2
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.32
βMark Evidence Assessment
Phase I: Develop Value Proposition, Get Approval 37.5%
Phase II: Prove Value Proposition with Customers 43.2%
Overall Probability 3.88%
Forward
chance of
success
3.88%
10.4%
Customer Enthusiasm – 50%
βCorp Sponsorship – 75%
Technical Performance
Coverage Accuracy – 90%
Emotional Accuracy – 80%
Customer Commitment – 60%
Phase III: Prepare to Scale
Robust Pipeline – 60%
Scalable Business Case – 40%
24%24%
Simulation: Probability of Success of Phase 2
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.33
βMark Evidence Assessment
Phase I: Develop Value Proposition, Get Approval 100%
Phase II: Prove Value Proposition with Customers 43.2%
Overall Probability 10.4%
Forward
chance of
success
10.4%
Customer Enthusiasm – 100%
βCorp Sponsorship – 100%
Technical Performance
Coverage Accuracy – 90%
Emotional Accuracy – 80%
Customer Commitment – 60%
Phase III: Prepare to Scale
Robust Pipeline – 60%
Scalable Business Case – 40%
24%24%
SUCCESS
Debrief: Reflections/Questions?
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.34
Evaluate
option
value
Introduction
Agenda
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.35
Evaluate
option
value
Introduction
After development has succeeded, we are
ready to double-down
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.36
Time
Cashflow
Agile business development incorporates
multiple scenario-thinking before doubling down
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.37
Time
Cashflow
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.38
Evidentially
Assessable
Factors
Pattern: “Evidentially Assessable Factors”
Economic factors that are hard to support with evidence can be
easily manipulated to distort our understanding about opportunity
size.
Therefore, decompose economic models such that factors that are
hard to support with evidence are derived from other factors that
are easy to assess on the basis of evidence.
Consequences
Assessment conversations remain rooted in real world knowledge
instead of devolving into the abstract. Numbers produced are of
much higher quality.
Related Patterns: “Extreme Credible Ranges” and “Most Leveraged
Uncertainties”
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.39
Simulation: Decompose economics to identify
assessments and calculations
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.40
Total Addressable
Market
e.g. 10K units in
year of launch
Penetration
e.g. 20%
Market
Share
e.g. 25%
Units Sold/yr
e.g. 500
Unit Price
e.g. $70K
Revenue
e.g. $35M
Unit Cost
e.g. $2K
Fixed Cost
e.g. $5M
Variable Cost
e.g. $1M
Annual Profit
e.g. 29M
Pattern: “Extreme Credible Ranges”
Groups have a tendency toward groupthink and compromise, which
prevents discovery of important information gaps on factors that drive
economics.
Therefore, get groups to dwell on the credibly extreme ends of each factor
and capture both ends of the assessment as a range, along with a realistic
assessment.
Consequences:
Those who have a difference of opinion are no longer ignored, but
factored into the decision-making process. We are no longer anchored to
the optimistic or pessimistic, but have both along with a realistic scenario.
Related Patterns: “Evidentially Assessable Factors” and “Most Leveraged
Uncertainties”
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.41
Simulation:
Market Share for βMark
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.42
High
Low
Reasons for High
• Not much competition
yet
Reasons for Low:
• A big competitor may
get in before us
Base
40%
30%
20%
20%
10%
5%
40%
5%
30%,
20%,
20% 25%
Total Addressable Market (TAM): 5-10-20
thousand units
Penetration of similar technology: 10%-
20%-30%
Most Leveraged Uncertainties
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.43
Pattern: “Most Leveraged Uncertainties”
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.44
It is easy for us to fixate on uncertainty in economic factors that are
in front of us, or the factors with the highest leverage, as opposed to
looking at both and finding the ones that really matter.
Therefore, identify the most leveraged uncertainties
Consequences:
• Conversations can now focus on uncertainties that have the
most leverage, instead of just focusing on swing in uncertainty or
leverage by themselves.
• Discussion focused on obtaining upside and containing
downside
Related Patterns: “Extreme Credible Ranges” and “Evidentially
Assessable Factors”
Simulation: The top bars in the Tornado identify
the uncertainties with the highest leverage
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.45
The 10-50-90 bar summarizes overall
uncertainty into a single range:
Low: -18M Base: 44M High: 197M
Top 4 factors
capture most
of the variance
in NPV
Debrief: Reflections/Questions?
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.46
Evaluate
option
value
Introduction
Agenda
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.47
Evaluate
option
value
Introduction
Pattern: “Simple Options Valuation”
Placing dollar values on development opportunities is a task that
can be obfuscated by complex financial models, which shift the
focus away from collaborative learning discussions toward magic
numbers.
Therefore, use simple options valuation to make clear the logic
behind development opportunity valuation.
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.48
Consequences:
The equivalent dollar amount in a simple
valuation incorporates the uncertainty in the
opportunity and is directly traceable into its
constituent components.
Related Patterns: Uncertainty-Value Screen,
Productivity Ordering
Simulation: Simple Option Valuation
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.49
$0.75M
$82M
The equivalent
value just went up
because of
development
success
Think of this as an
equivalent value
representing the
uncertainty in this
deal
These numbers come
from the 10-50-90 bar
Pattern: “10-50-90 Bars”
Focusing on single number valuations of projects hides the
underlying uncertainty in the upside and downside of that project.
Therefore, use 10-50-90 bars to characterize uncertainty in each
development project.
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.50
Consequences:
• Shows the biggest upsides and downsides
that need to be managed
Related Patterns: “Productivity Ordering”,
“Uncertainty-Value Screen”, “Most Leveraged
Uncertainties”
Value 
Simulation: Compare Uncertainty for βCorp
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.51
Zoom can lose
a lot of money,
but it can also
make the most
money
Simulation: There is a big gap in market
understanding for Zoom
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.52
The top 4
uncertainties have to
do with market
understanding
Pattern: “Uncertainty-Value Screen”
People can get emotionally attached to pet projects and lose sight
of the big picture.
Therefore, use uncertainty-value screens to understand where
development projects fall and how they need to be managed.
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.53
Consequences:
• Facilitates a rich conversation on how to
feasibly move projects to a better place
• Great projects can be picked over good
ones, with transparent logic as opposed to
political posturing, making hard decisions
more acceptable to people.
Related Patterns: “Productivity Ordering”,
“Learning Plans”, “Evidence-Driven Funding”
Also known as: Innovation Screen
Simulation: Uncertainty–Value Screen for βCorp
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.54
What can we do
to move these
projects out of
this quadrant?
Zoom seems fairly
speculative –
need to get some
market thinking
going on it
Value given development success
ProbabilityofDevelopmentSuccess
Pattern: “Evidence-Driven Funding”
Investments in large opportunities with low chance of success are
necessary and yet, perilous.
Therefore, invest by evidence delivered in preceding phase.
Consequences:
• Investments are not arbitrary but thoughtful
• Investments are connected to delivery of evidence
• Projects not tied to P&L statements, which would kill innovation,
and instead managed through learning plan progress.
Related Patterns: “Learning Plans,” “Evidential Work” and
“Uncertainty-Value Screen”
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.55
Pattern: “Productivity Ordering”
Organizations use budgets as a given constraint when making
funding decisions, without clearly communicating the value of
securing more resources to fund development.
Therefore, order development projects by their productivity on a
plot of cumulative value versus cumulative investment.
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.56
Consequences:
• Provides feedback on the value-cut that
goes together with a cost-cut
• Emphasizes why the CFO was hired – to
obtain funding for important opportunities!
Related Patterns: “Uncertainty-Value Screen”
Also Known As: CFO Chart
Cumulative Cost
CumulativeValue
Budget Line
Extra Value
Extra Cost
Simulation: CFO Chart
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.57
Oyster
Pearl
Oyster
Zoom got cut down to
size because of the
inherent uncertainty
Cumulative Cost ($ millions)
CumulativeValue($millions)
Debrief
Reflections? Questions?
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.58
Analytic Practices of Agile Business
Development are the platform for collaboration
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.59
Proof
Points
Learning
Plan
Development
Uncertainty
Extreme
Credible
Ranges
Most
Leveraged
Uncertainties
Simple Option Value,
Value-Unc Screen,
CFO Chart
Watch
downside,
swing for
upside
Work to deliver
proof points
10-50-90
Summary Bar
Assessable
Economic
Factors
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.60
Collaborative Development
Working business models
Customer collaboration
Responding to change
The analytic practices propel us toward the
goalpost
Continuing the Conversation
Learn More
• Include Business Design in Innovation
• Tornado Diagram: Resolving Conflict and Confusion with
Objectivity and Evidence
• Try SimpleTornado – open source
LinkedIn Group
• Invitations will be sent to attendees to join the “Agile Business
Development” group
Connect with me
• Please feel free to reach out at sraha@smartorg.com
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.61
Appendix
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.62
Pattern: “Purpose Values”
Dry intellectual logic does not motivate people to reach excellence.
Therefore, find the values that define the purpose of the
organization and align business opportunities and strategy to deliver
on these values.
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.63
Consequences:
People rally around the chosen opportunities and are excited to
make it happen
Read More: http://smartorg.com/2012/06/valuepoint6/
Simulation: Show Purpose Values of βCorp
Answer “What transformation in the world do you want
to bring about through the work of this company?”
Keep asking “Why?” When you can’t answer anymore,
those are your purpose values.
How well does the opportunity under development
support the purpose values?
© 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.64

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Agile business development

  • 1. Bringing Agility to Business Development Somik Raha, Associate SmartOrg, Inc smartorg.com © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.1
  • 2. Legal Stuff This deck is licensed under the Creative Commons – Attribution – No Derivatives 3.0 License. Please feel free to contact sraha@smartorg.com if you have any questions. © 2000-2013 SmartOrg. | For Classroom Use Only. Not for distribution.2
  • 3. Agenda © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.3 Evaluate option value Introduction • Business Development • The Agile Manifesto • Current State • Values
  • 4. Definition of Business Development Business Development is the turning of an idea into a marketable business asset © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.4
  • 5. Agile Software Development greatly increases quality and productivity © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.5 Collaborative development Working software Customer collaboration Responding to change Processes and tools Comprehensive documentation Contract negotiation Following a plan OVER The Agile Manifesto We value… That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more.
  • 6. Current Business Development vs. Agile Business Development © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.6 Processes and tools Comprehensive paperwork Contract negotiation Following a plan Processes and tools Comprehensive documentation Contract negotiation Following a plan Collaborative Development Working business models Customer collaboration Responding to change CURRENT BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT FOCUS AGILE BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT FOCUS NON-AGILE SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT FOCUS Collaborative Development Working software Customer collaboration Responding to change AGILE SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT FOCUS
  • 7. Poll: What role do you play in your organization? 1. Business Development 2. Marketing/Sales 3. Product Management 4. Product Development 5. Project Management 6. Engineering © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.7
  • 8. © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.8 Collaborative Development Working business models Customer collaboration Responding to change Agile practices support the Agile manifesto
  • 9. © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.9 Collaborative Development Working business models Customer collaboration Responding to change What practices get us to the goalpost? ?
  • 10. Agenda © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.10 Evaluate option value Business Development: Turning idea into marketable business asset Market Performance: Given business development has succeeded, how will this product fare in the market? Combined Value: What dollar amount represents our option value of developing this idea as a business given where we are right now? Introduction
  • 11. Agenda © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.11 Evaluate option value Introduction
  • 12. Business development is about managing increasing amounts of investment © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.12 Time Cashflow
  • 13. Agile business development is about learning/failing/succeeding quickly © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.13 Time Cashflow
  • 14. We will communicate Agile Business Development with a catalog of patterns “Each pattern describes a problem which occurs over and over again in our environment, and then describes the core of the solution to that problem, in such a way that you can use this solution a million times over, without ever doing it the same way twice.” “What is a design pattern?” from Design Patterns: Elements of Reusable Object- Oriented Software by Gamma et al., 1995 Elements of a pattern: pattern name, problem, solution, image* and consequences * optional © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.14
  • 15. Evidential Work © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.15
  • 16. Pattern: Evidential Work When investing serious money behind an idea, it is easy to be distracted away from the evidence needed to justify the investment by the work that needs to be done. Therefore, design work to deliver evidence as quickly as possible Consequences A clear idea of the proof needed to justify investment, the work needed to deliver that proof, the cost and the schedule of that work Related Patterns: Communicate evidential work with “Learning Plans” © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.16
  • 17. The Mortgage Question © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.17 What do you need to see before mortgaging your house to fund this project?
  • 18. Simulation: βCorp Makes statistical data analysis products © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.18 New Product Allows analysis of the effectiveness of marketing campaigns by examining social media chatter for emotional content around the product. This product will help βCorp enter the social media space. What evidence do you need to see before mortgaging your house on this product?
  • 19. Simulation: Evidential Work © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.19 Phase 1: Develop Value Proposition, Get Approval •Customer Enthusiasm •βCorp Sponsorship Phase 2: Prove Value Proposition with Customers •Technical Performance •Customer Commitment Phase 3: Prepare to Scale •Robust Pipeline •Scalable Business Case • Solicit pilot customers • Business case analysis • Obtain right to pursue • Requirements / gap analysis => technical roadmap • Preliminary offer • Pre-sales, talk to customers • Incubation structure defined Investment: $0.5M 4 FTE x 6 month x $200K = $400K Expenses = $100K • Conduct 2-4 customer pilots across areas - map processes, demonstrate value • Fill gaps in platform and services • Capture learning • Build resources / PMO • Plan G2M / business • Extend / revise roadmap • Advance needed technology • Define full platform Investment: $4M 20 FTE x 1 year x $150K = $3M Expenses, capital = $1M • Complete, harden platform • Establish channel / G2M • Sales / BD • Marketing / communication • Set up P&L / organization • Deliver operationally to first pilots • Conduct additional pilots of new kinds • Support structure Investment: $6M Team, Expenses as in Phase II = $4M Sales, Business Development = $1M Support, infrastructure = $1M
  • 20. Learning Plans © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.20
  • 21. Pattern: Learning Plans When communicating development plans, it is easy to lose sight of the learning needed to justify further investment. Therefore, depict key stages of evidence needed and the work needed to deliver that evidence on a timescale Consequences A simple timeline that communicates key evidential stages, the work involved (details and investment) and the sequence. Related Patterns: Evidential Work and Evidence Assessment © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.21
  • 22. Simulation: βMark Learning Plan © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.22 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 βMark Phase I – Develop Value Proposition, Get Approval • Solicit pilot customers • Business case analysis • Obtain right to pursue • Requirements / gap analysis => technical roadmap • Preliminary offer • Pre-sales, talk to customers • Incubation structure defined Investment: $0.5M 4 FTE x 6 month x $200K = $400K Expenses = $100K Phase II – Prove Value Proposition with Customers Customer enthusiasm, βCorp sponsorship • Conduct 2-4 customer pilots across areas - map processes, demonstrate value • Fill gaps in platform and services • Capture learning • Build resources / PMO • Plan G2M / business • Extend / revise roadmap • Advance needed technology • Define full platform Investment: $4M 20 FTE x 1 year x $150K = $3M Expenses, capital = $1M Technical performance, Customer commitment Key: Major Phase • Work during phase • Phase Investment • Proof points at milestone Cumulative investment through launch Total: $10.5M P&L commit May 11 Phase III – Prepare to Scale • Complete, harden platform • Establish channel / G2M • Sales / BD • Marketing / communication • Set up P&L / organization • Deliver operationally to first pilots • Conduct additional pilots of new kinds • Support structure Investment: $6M Team, Expenses as in Phase II = $4M Sales, Business Development = $1M Support, infrastructure = $1M Robust pipeline, Scalable business case
  • 23. Evidence Assessment © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.23
  • 24. Pattern: Evidence Assessment Different people understand different things when talking about uncertainty in a qualitative fashion, which makes communication difficult. Therefore, assess calibrated probabilities for each point of evidence, multiplying to get overall probability of success Consequences A simple quantitative understanding of uncertainty that is comparable across projects. Related Patterns: Evidential Work and Evidence Assessment © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.24
  • 25. Simulation: Comparing projects by their phase allows us to calibrate © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.25 Why does a Phase 1 project have such a high probability? After recalibrating Idea Prove Scale Idea Prove Scale
  • 26. Pattern: Reasons Behind Numbers People can get into a mindless number game and lose sight of the real purpose of uncertainty assessments – to discover learning gaps. Therefore, before accepting numbers, obtain reasons for them. Consequences The logic behind the numbers is made transparent, facilitating team learning. Related Patterns: Evidential Work and Evidence Assessment © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.26
  • 27. Pattern: Blind Polls People can follow power and feel shy to share what they truly know. Therefore, disallow calling out numbers in a group, forcing each member to write down their number and then collect it when all are done Consequences Differences in numbers become transparent and drive discussion in learning gaps, leading to possible adjustment after the group has new knowledge Related Patterns: Evidential Work and Evidence Assessment © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.27
  • 28. Simulation: Evidence Assessment of Phase 2: Prove Value Proposition with Customers © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.28 Phase 1: Develop Value Proposition, Get Approval •Customer Enthusiasm •βCorp Sponsorship Phase 2: Prove Value Proposition with Customers •Technical Performance •Customer Commitment Phase 3: Prepare to Scale •Robust Pipeline •Scalable Business Case
  • 29. Simulation: Evidence Assessment of Phase 2: Prove Value Proposition with Customers © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.29 Phase 1: Develop Value Proposition, Get Approval •Customer Enthusiasm •βCorp Sponsorship Phase 2: Prove Value Proposition with Customers •Technical Performance •Customer Commitment Phase 3: Prepare to Scale •Robust Pipeline •Scalable Business Case Technical Performance Run Human Control Group, • βMark picks 90% of all actual chatter • βMark distinguishes correctly between +ve and –ve feelings at least 90% of the time Customer Commitment • At least one customer signs up for company-wide adoption
  • 30. Simulation: Evidence Assessment of Phase 2: Prove Value Proposition with Customers • Technical Performance • Human Control Group confirms that βMark picks 90% of all actual chatter In your chat: List reasons for success List reasons for failure © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.30
  • 31. Simulation: Evidence Assessment Summary Human Control Group confirms that βMark picks 90% of all actual chatter © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.31 Success Failure Reasons for Success • Lab results promising Reasons for Failure: • We’ve never done this before Given these reasons for success and failure, what is your probability of success?
  • 32. Simulation: Probability of Success of Phase 2 © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.32 βMark Evidence Assessment Phase I: Develop Value Proposition, Get Approval 37.5% Phase II: Prove Value Proposition with Customers 43.2% Overall Probability 3.88% Forward chance of success 3.88% 10.4% Customer Enthusiasm – 50% βCorp Sponsorship – 75% Technical Performance Coverage Accuracy – 90% Emotional Accuracy – 80% Customer Commitment – 60% Phase III: Prepare to Scale Robust Pipeline – 60% Scalable Business Case – 40% 24%24%
  • 33. Simulation: Probability of Success of Phase 2 © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.33 βMark Evidence Assessment Phase I: Develop Value Proposition, Get Approval 100% Phase II: Prove Value Proposition with Customers 43.2% Overall Probability 10.4% Forward chance of success 10.4% Customer Enthusiasm – 100% βCorp Sponsorship – 100% Technical Performance Coverage Accuracy – 90% Emotional Accuracy – 80% Customer Commitment – 60% Phase III: Prepare to Scale Robust Pipeline – 60% Scalable Business Case – 40% 24%24% SUCCESS
  • 34. Debrief: Reflections/Questions? © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.34 Evaluate option value Introduction
  • 35. Agenda © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.35 Evaluate option value Introduction
  • 36. After development has succeeded, we are ready to double-down © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.36 Time Cashflow
  • 37. Agile business development incorporates multiple scenario-thinking before doubling down © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.37 Time Cashflow
  • 38. © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.38 Evidentially Assessable Factors
  • 39. Pattern: “Evidentially Assessable Factors” Economic factors that are hard to support with evidence can be easily manipulated to distort our understanding about opportunity size. Therefore, decompose economic models such that factors that are hard to support with evidence are derived from other factors that are easy to assess on the basis of evidence. Consequences Assessment conversations remain rooted in real world knowledge instead of devolving into the abstract. Numbers produced are of much higher quality. Related Patterns: “Extreme Credible Ranges” and “Most Leveraged Uncertainties” © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.39
  • 40. Simulation: Decompose economics to identify assessments and calculations © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.40 Total Addressable Market e.g. 10K units in year of launch Penetration e.g. 20% Market Share e.g. 25% Units Sold/yr e.g. 500 Unit Price e.g. $70K Revenue e.g. $35M Unit Cost e.g. $2K Fixed Cost e.g. $5M Variable Cost e.g. $1M Annual Profit e.g. 29M
  • 41. Pattern: “Extreme Credible Ranges” Groups have a tendency toward groupthink and compromise, which prevents discovery of important information gaps on factors that drive economics. Therefore, get groups to dwell on the credibly extreme ends of each factor and capture both ends of the assessment as a range, along with a realistic assessment. Consequences: Those who have a difference of opinion are no longer ignored, but factored into the decision-making process. We are no longer anchored to the optimistic or pessimistic, but have both along with a realistic scenario. Related Patterns: “Evidentially Assessable Factors” and “Most Leveraged Uncertainties” © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.41
  • 42. Simulation: Market Share for βMark © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.42 High Low Reasons for High • Not much competition yet Reasons for Low: • A big competitor may get in before us Base 40% 30% 20% 20% 10% 5% 40% 5% 30%, 20%, 20% 25% Total Addressable Market (TAM): 5-10-20 thousand units Penetration of similar technology: 10%- 20%-30%
  • 43. Most Leveraged Uncertainties © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.43
  • 44. Pattern: “Most Leveraged Uncertainties” © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.44 It is easy for us to fixate on uncertainty in economic factors that are in front of us, or the factors with the highest leverage, as opposed to looking at both and finding the ones that really matter. Therefore, identify the most leveraged uncertainties Consequences: • Conversations can now focus on uncertainties that have the most leverage, instead of just focusing on swing in uncertainty or leverage by themselves. • Discussion focused on obtaining upside and containing downside Related Patterns: “Extreme Credible Ranges” and “Evidentially Assessable Factors”
  • 45. Simulation: The top bars in the Tornado identify the uncertainties with the highest leverage © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.45 The 10-50-90 bar summarizes overall uncertainty into a single range: Low: -18M Base: 44M High: 197M Top 4 factors capture most of the variance in NPV
  • 46. Debrief: Reflections/Questions? © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.46 Evaluate option value Introduction
  • 47. Agenda © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.47 Evaluate option value Introduction
  • 48. Pattern: “Simple Options Valuation” Placing dollar values on development opportunities is a task that can be obfuscated by complex financial models, which shift the focus away from collaborative learning discussions toward magic numbers. Therefore, use simple options valuation to make clear the logic behind development opportunity valuation. © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.48 Consequences: The equivalent dollar amount in a simple valuation incorporates the uncertainty in the opportunity and is directly traceable into its constituent components. Related Patterns: Uncertainty-Value Screen, Productivity Ordering
  • 49. Simulation: Simple Option Valuation © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.49 $0.75M $82M The equivalent value just went up because of development success Think of this as an equivalent value representing the uncertainty in this deal These numbers come from the 10-50-90 bar
  • 50. Pattern: “10-50-90 Bars” Focusing on single number valuations of projects hides the underlying uncertainty in the upside and downside of that project. Therefore, use 10-50-90 bars to characterize uncertainty in each development project. © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.50 Consequences: • Shows the biggest upsides and downsides that need to be managed Related Patterns: “Productivity Ordering”, “Uncertainty-Value Screen”, “Most Leveraged Uncertainties” Value 
  • 51. Simulation: Compare Uncertainty for βCorp © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.51 Zoom can lose a lot of money, but it can also make the most money
  • 52. Simulation: There is a big gap in market understanding for Zoom © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.52 The top 4 uncertainties have to do with market understanding
  • 53. Pattern: “Uncertainty-Value Screen” People can get emotionally attached to pet projects and lose sight of the big picture. Therefore, use uncertainty-value screens to understand where development projects fall and how they need to be managed. © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.53 Consequences: • Facilitates a rich conversation on how to feasibly move projects to a better place • Great projects can be picked over good ones, with transparent logic as opposed to political posturing, making hard decisions more acceptable to people. Related Patterns: “Productivity Ordering”, “Learning Plans”, “Evidence-Driven Funding” Also known as: Innovation Screen
  • 54. Simulation: Uncertainty–Value Screen for βCorp © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.54 What can we do to move these projects out of this quadrant? Zoom seems fairly speculative – need to get some market thinking going on it Value given development success ProbabilityofDevelopmentSuccess
  • 55. Pattern: “Evidence-Driven Funding” Investments in large opportunities with low chance of success are necessary and yet, perilous. Therefore, invest by evidence delivered in preceding phase. Consequences: • Investments are not arbitrary but thoughtful • Investments are connected to delivery of evidence • Projects not tied to P&L statements, which would kill innovation, and instead managed through learning plan progress. Related Patterns: “Learning Plans,” “Evidential Work” and “Uncertainty-Value Screen” © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.55
  • 56. Pattern: “Productivity Ordering” Organizations use budgets as a given constraint when making funding decisions, without clearly communicating the value of securing more resources to fund development. Therefore, order development projects by their productivity on a plot of cumulative value versus cumulative investment. © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.56 Consequences: • Provides feedback on the value-cut that goes together with a cost-cut • Emphasizes why the CFO was hired – to obtain funding for important opportunities! Related Patterns: “Uncertainty-Value Screen” Also Known As: CFO Chart Cumulative Cost CumulativeValue Budget Line Extra Value Extra Cost
  • 57. Simulation: CFO Chart © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.57 Oyster Pearl Oyster Zoom got cut down to size because of the inherent uncertainty Cumulative Cost ($ millions) CumulativeValue($millions)
  • 58. Debrief Reflections? Questions? © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.58
  • 59. Analytic Practices of Agile Business Development are the platform for collaboration © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.59 Proof Points Learning Plan Development Uncertainty Extreme Credible Ranges Most Leveraged Uncertainties Simple Option Value, Value-Unc Screen, CFO Chart Watch downside, swing for upside Work to deliver proof points 10-50-90 Summary Bar Assessable Economic Factors
  • 60. © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.60 Collaborative Development Working business models Customer collaboration Responding to change The analytic practices propel us toward the goalpost
  • 61. Continuing the Conversation Learn More • Include Business Design in Innovation • Tornado Diagram: Resolving Conflict and Confusion with Objectivity and Evidence • Try SimpleTornado – open source LinkedIn Group • Invitations will be sent to attendees to join the “Agile Business Development” group Connect with me • Please feel free to reach out at sraha@smartorg.com © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.61
  • 62. Appendix © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.62
  • 63. Pattern: “Purpose Values” Dry intellectual logic does not motivate people to reach excellence. Therefore, find the values that define the purpose of the organization and align business opportunities and strategy to deliver on these values. © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.63 Consequences: People rally around the chosen opportunities and are excited to make it happen Read More: http://smartorg.com/2012/06/valuepoint6/
  • 64. Simulation: Show Purpose Values of βCorp Answer “What transformation in the world do you want to bring about through the work of this company?” Keep asking “Why?” When you can’t answer anymore, those are your purpose values. How well does the opportunity under development support the purpose values? © 2000-2012 SmartOrg. | Confidential and Proprietary.64

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Instructions: Poll title “State of business development in your organization”We do not have a formal business development processThe term business development is often confused with salesWe have a formal process but are not agileWe have a formal process and are agile
  2. Instructions: Please prepare this poll as follows with the title “What role do you play in your organization?”: Business Development Marketing/Sales Product Management Product Development Project Management EngineeringThis should be multiple-choice – more than one can be picked.
  3. Instructions:Show chat window; title of chat window “What evidence do you need to see before mortgaging your house to fund BetaMark?”When we move to the next slide, the chat window should move on the side, visible only to speaker and moderators.
  4. Instructions:I will refer to the chat window to make points connecting with this slide. After this slide, this chat window is no longer needed.
  5. Nothing to be done here. I will just show this slide, and ask people for questions in Q&A
  6. Instructions:When animation goes to “List reasons for success,” Chat Window opens up with the title “List reasons for success”. When animation goes to “List reasons for failure”, new Chat Window opens up with the title “List reasons for failure”. The earlier chat window remains open, both are side-by-side, and editable.When we move to the next slide, these chat windows move to the side so only moderators and speaker can see them.
  7. Instructions:1. Somik will read out reasons for success that he likes and wants added underneath “Lab results promising”. The color should be green and font should be “Arial” and size 162. Somik will read out reasons for failure that he likes and wants added underneath “We’ve never done this before”. The color should be red and font should be “Arial” and size 163. When the animation moves to the green box “Given these reasons …,” Somik will cue and ask people to answer a poll. The following poll should open up:Poll:Given the reasons for success and failure, where does your probability of success fall?80-100%60-80%40-60%20-40%0-20%4. When Somik concludes the poll, two chat windows should open up, with the titles “80-100%” and “0-20%”. Somik will ask each camp to put their reasons in the respective windows and respond to each other’s points.5. Somik will make some final comments, “This is how we facilitate a discussion.” Chat windows will disappear after we move to the next slide.
  8. Nothing to be done here.
  9. Nothing to be done here.
  10. Instructions: Chat window opens up with the title “Please enter reasons for the market share percentage being high”. I will start with that prompt.Enter reasons that I identify below “not much competition yet.” The color should be green and font should be “Arial” and size 16.I will then ask “How high is high?” The previous chat window closes, and a new one opens with the title “How high is high?”I will then ask “Now let’s look at reasons for low”. A new chat window opens with the title “Please enter reasons for the market share percentage being low.” Enter reasons that I identify below “A big competitor may get in before us.” The color should be red and font should be “Arial” and size 16.I will then ask “How low is low?” The previous chat window closes, and a new one opens with the title “How low is low?”I will then ask “What is your over-under number?” The previous chat window closes and a new one opens with the title, “What is your base number?”When I move to the next slide, the chat window closes.
  11. Read More: http://smartorg.com/2011/10/tornado-diagram-resolving-conflict-and-confusion-with-objectivity-and-evidence/