Turning the tide of HIV
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Presentation by Bernhard Schwartländer, Director of Evidence, Innovation and Policy at UNAIDS, to the International AIDS Conference in Washington, D.C. in July 2012. Explores progress in getting to zero new HIV infections, zero discrimination and zero AIDS-related deaths, and notes the need for continued investment and options for generating that investment. As he concludes: together we will end AIDS!
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Turning the tide of HIV
- 1. What will it take to turn the tide? Bernhard Schwartländer Yogan Pillay Till Baernighausen Presentation to the International AIDS Conference Washington D.C. July 2012
- 3. Business as usual will lead to stagnation HIV investment US$ (billions) 25 New HIV infections (millions) 4 20 Investment 3 15 2 10 1 5 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Schwartländer et al. Lancet 2011
- 4. Business as usual will lead to stagnation HIV investment US$ (billions) 25 4 20 Investment 3 New HIV infections (millions) 15 New HIV Infections 2 10 1 5 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Schwartländer et al. Lancet 2011
- 5. Better investments can achieve large gains HIV investment US$ (billions) 25 4 20 3 New HIV infections (millions) 15 2 10 1 5 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Schwartländer et al. Lancet 2011
- 6. Pay now or pay forever HIV investment US$ (billions) 25 4 2015 gap: 20 US$ 7 billion 3 New HIV infections (millions) 15 2 10 1 5 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Schwartländer et al. Lancet 2011
- 7. Value for money: doing the right things 300 000 Russian Federation Number of new HIV infections Brazil - 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: UNAIDS
- 8. Value for money: doing things right 16 AIDS Resources and Treatment scale-up 7 Africa 2002 – 2011: 14 6 AIDS Resources (US$ billion) Millions of people on ART 12 5 10 4 8 3 6 AIDS investment 2 4 Antiretroviral treatment 1 2 - - 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: UNAIDS, WHO 2012
- 9. Value for money: price reductions Median price of selected first-line regimens in low-income countries 700 2008 2011 - 60% US$/ppy - 57% - 53% - 41% - 15% 0 TDF TDF TDF ZDV 3TC +FTC +FTC +3TC +3TC +NVP +EFV +NVP +EFV +EFV +ZDV Source: Global Price Reporting Mechanism, WHO 2012
- 10. New World
- 11. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2000 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
- 12. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2002 2003 2000 2001 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
- 13. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
- 14. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
- 15. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2008 2009 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
- 16. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2010 2008 2009 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 2011 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
- 17. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2012 2013 2010 2008 2009 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 2011 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
- 18. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2014 2015 2012 2013 2010 2008 2009 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 2011 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
- 19. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2016 2017 2014 2015 2012 2013 2010 2008 2009 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 2011 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
- 20. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2018 2019 2016 2017 2014 2015 2012 2013 2010 2008 2009 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 2011 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
- 21. Economic growth is rapidly changing the world order 2020 2018 2019 2016 2017 2014 2015 2012 2013 2010 2008 2009 2006 2007 2004 2005 2002 2003 2000 2001 2011 High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income Source: IMF data, extrapolated 2017-2020
- 22. The vast majority of people living with HIV will be in middle income countries Proportion of people living with HIV by country income category, 2000 - 2020 100% 80% Income category High 60% Upper middle Lower middle 40% Low 70% 20% 37% 13% 0% 2000 2010 2020 Source: UNAIDS, IMF 2012
- 23. Inequality persists despite strong income growth South Africa: GDP per capita 200% $10,000 1996-2011 Per capita GDP 100% $5,000 Richest 20% of population 0% $0 Poorest 20% 1996 2011 Source: IMF
- 24. Inequality persists despite strong income growth South Africa: GDP per capita and income distribution 200% 1996-2011 Per capita GDP Share of national income held by: 100% Richest 20% 0% Poorest 20% 1996 2011 Source: IMF, World Bank
- 25. Most people living with HIV will live where the wealth is concentrated 600 big cities in the world in 2025: 25% of the population 60% of the global wealth 2 of every 3 people living with HIV will be living in urban areas by 2030 Source: McKinsey Institute, UNAIDS 2012
- 26. New Resources
- 27. Wealth for health: economic growth will benefit health budgets in low- and middle-income countries Grow to 15% of Gov Budget: US$ 2 020 bn plus US$ 640 billion Economic growth: US$ 1 380 bn plus US$ 670 billion by 2020 US$ 710 bn Health spending in 2012: US$ 710 billion Source: UNAIDS, WHO 2012
- 28. Options for domestic HIV financing in Africa US$ 1.7 billion US$ Airline levy US$ by all African 3.9 billion countries 2.0 billion 75% of an Mobile alcohol levy phone levy US$ US$ US$ 2.4 billion 2.4 billion 3.1 billion 1% income tax levy Contributions from 2% of public sector earmarked for AIDS high-revenue budgets earmarked enterprises for AIDS Source: Estimates for UNAIDS by Oxford Policy Management, 2012
- 29. Options for global development financing US$ 3 billion Extending the annual airline levy to all OECD countries US$ 4 billion Issue diaspora bonds (1% of developing-country migrants’ savings) US$ US$ 64 billion US$ 150 billion Global tax on 11 billion Global financial transaction tax shipping and Global portion of aviation fuels widely implemented tobacco taxes (WHO) Sources: World Bank, UN, IMF, AfDB, WHO, International Food Policy Research Institute, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
- 30. Those that say it can’t be done should get out of the way of those doing it Chinese Proverb Together we can end AIDS
Notes de l'éditeur
- Both countries have per-capita GDP around $13,000Both countries spend about 0.4% of GDP on the AIDS programmeBoth countries have prevalence levels at around 1%Data could go back much further, but this slide still needs data for 2010 and 2011, which should be forthcoming…
- Almost 90% of all people on treatment are using generic drugs.
- Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
- Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
- Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
- Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
- Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
- Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
- Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
- Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
- Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
- Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030
- Once the data is cleared, we shall update it up to 2030