Crisis Management for Major Cities

Crisis Planning for
Major Cities
MASTERCLASS

SMi Training Presents…

Creating CM Capabilities for 21st Century Challenges
11th July 2013, Central London
Hosted By: David Rubens, MD of David Rubens Associates

Overview:
2007 was the first year in the planet’s history that more humans lived in an urban setting
than in a rural one. The move from the country to the city, and the rapid expansion of the
number of mega-cities, together with the explosive growth of unplanned, unmanaged
shanty towns that surround them, is one of the looming problems that strategic
planners of the next generation are going to be facing. Whether it is in the developing
mega-cities of Africa, Asia and South America, or the established cities of the developed
world, the reality of a catastrophic failure of city management is no longer merely a
possibility, but is a statistical certainty that is inexorably approaching on a daily and
monthly basis.
The potent mixture of high population density; the fragmentation of supply chains for
basic needs combined with ‘just in time’ delivery systems that means that reserve
stocks are held at the absolute minimum level; the increasing complexity and
interdependence of management systems combined with a decaying infrastructure that
is rapidly degrading due to the lack of investment and long-term strategic management;
the increasing development of cities and other urban settings in areas where there is a
higher than normal propensity to natural disasters, whether it is flooding, drought,
storms or fire, all of which is taking place in a social environment where disease is both
more likely to arise and more likely to escalate rapidly into a major health issue, means
that Crisis Planning for Major Cities is an area of academic study and practitioner
development that is gaining ever greater prominence.
Urban crisis management can be roughly divided into two separate strands: the routine
management of ‘daily crises’ that are familiar to any resident of any city in the world –
problems with transport, basic services, overflowing drains, emergency repairs and the
thousands of major and minor disruptions that are the constant background to the hum
of city life, and then the ‘catastrophic failures’ that threaten the safety and well-being of
millions of citizens, and which challenge the viability of the city itself.

www.smi-online.co.uk/crisis-major-cities.asp
We are already seeing increasing numbers of cases where major conurbations are
brought perilously close to the edge of collapse. Examples such as the Fukushima
tsunami which, combined with the fear of a radioactive cloud, led within days to a
situation where Tokyo was a city of ten million people that was literally running out of
food; or Ukraine, where the unprecedented winter weather in December 2012 led to
major cities being cut off from their supply chains; or New York, where the threat of
catastrophic storm patterns has led to repeated evacuations of the city; or bush fires in
Australia which rapidly moved beyond the ability of emergency managers to control.
These, and countless other similar situations all highlight common concerns: how do
we create a crisis management capability that is robust enough to deal with the hyper-
complex and mega-impacts of a modern urban disaster.
This one-day seminar will bring together leading experts in the field of urban
management and crisis planning, and will give all of those involved in these issues,
whether from a strategic policy perspective or an active management perspective, an
opportunity to share research and insights, experiences and lessons learned. It is our
belief that the sharing of knowledge and the development of an active community of
urban management experts is the prerequisite for creating effective management
capabilities appropriate to the challenges of the modern urban world.

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FULL DAY PROGRAMME

09.00- 09.30 coming in unplanned and unmanaged slum settlements that
Coffee / Introductions are associated with the mega-cities of Africa, Asia and South
America. An urban environment characterized by traffic
09.30 -10.30 congestion, pollution (air, water and natural environment),
Chair: David Rubens, David Rubens Associates energy shortages, illegal development and creeping (and often
Setting the Scene: Mega-Cities, Hyper-Complexity and Crisis rushing) expansion at the peripheries will need to be able to
Planning respond to, if not manage, the ever growing likelihoods of
21st century cities are the most complex social groupings on catastrophic and fast-moving health hazards and other risks
the planet – and yet we have a greater understanding of how associated with a self-fuelling cycle of social and
an ant colony or beehive works than we do our own urban geographical exclusion and increasing poverty. An
examination of the challenges being faced at the extreme
environment. If the opening question to this seminar is ‘Do you
outer edges of urban management will undoubtedly highlight
know how your city works?’, then the answer is almost issues being faced by urban planners and managers working
certainly going to be ‘No’. Rather than encouraging active in less volatile conditions.
management, modern city management is often limited to the
delivery of controlled failure – responding when a water main 13.00 – 14.00
breaks, a railway line is disrupted, a bridge collapses or there Lunch
is a change in weather conditions. This session looks at the
issues that need to be considered when framing the 14.00-15.00
discussion on crisis management and major cities, whether Chair: TBC Social Media and Urban Crisis Management
from a local, regional or national government perspective, Social media is undoubtedly the single most significant
taking into account the multiple stake-holders that will be development in urban crisis management over the last ten
involved in developing a city-wide management and crisis years. From the days when the sole means of alerting the
response capability population to an impending disaster was an announcement on
the radio, we have now come to a situation when real-time
10.45-11.45 updates are available from as many people as have mobile
Chair: Graham Brown, London Resilience phones and access to the internet. Whilst there are still many
Practical Lessons from the Front Line areas where the potential impact of this still developing urban
The London Resilience Partnership is made up of more than crisis management tool remain unclear, the ability to harness
170 organisations, including: the power of social media is one that is going to be
• The Emergency Services increasingly critical to urban crisis planners and operations
• Local Authorities managers across the globe.
• Health Organisations (e.g. hospitals, primary care trusts,
the Health Protection Agency)
15.00-15.45
• The Greater London Authority Chair: David Rubens
• Transport Companies Incident Command Systems for Urban Crisis Management
• Utility Companies However much planning and exercising is done prior to a
• The Military major incident, the reality within any crisis response situation
• Central Government is that the fog of chaos soon descends, and pre-planned
• Voluntary Organisations response are almost immediately rendered either irrelevant
• Business Representatives. or inoperable. It is the ability to develop ad hoc responses,
based on available resources and the collaboration between
This session looks at the issues surrounding the development whichever teams happen to be on the ground at the time, that
of an integrated resilience and crisis management community has the greatest impact on the success or otherwise of the
that is robust enough to deal with the crisis response response operations. 9/11, Hurricane Katarina, Fukushima,
situations likely to arise in a modern urban setting. Haiti, the Utoya massacre in Norway have all taught us
lessons about how a dependency on a centralised command
11.45 – 12.00 and control system can lead to a breakdown in effective
Morning coffee communications and decision-making frameworks. This
session looks at the strengths and weaknesses of presently
12.00 -13.00 accepted Incident Command Systems, and offers lessons
Chair: Marco Hekkens, Project FUEL-L (Future Urban from the cutting edge of academic research into the
Extremes Littoral - Land) management of ICS within hyper-complex disaster scenarios.
Lessons from the Extreme Edge of Urban Growth and City
15.45 – 16.00
Management
Afternoon tea
Project FUEL-L is a multi-disciplinary research into the
combined effects of migration towards the mega-urban 16.00-17.00
conglomerations, in particular those cities built in coastal Open Discussion
regions within the developing woprld. Project FUEL-L studies It is expected that all participants in this event will bring their
the drivers behind, and potential effects of any downward own skills, experiences and insights to the room, and that
spiral caused by a growing imbalance between the present there will be real value in sharing those experiences in a
and future ‘human requirements and expectations’ and the round-table discussion with other like-minded practitioners.
actual delivery of these demands. This is especially timely as Although the whole day will be run in an open and fully inter-
the number of mega-cities of >10million population are active way, the last session will create a space where the
projected to grow from the current nineteen to twenty-seven participants can share their ideas, as well as identify
in 2020 and thirty-seven in 2025, with most of that growth significant points for future investigation.


Why you should attend: Who should attend:
This one-day seminar offers an opportunity to share • Senior managers responsible for any aspect of
top-level practitioner insight as well as cutting-edge PCNI or working with agencies involved in CNI.
academic research into all aspects of crisis
• Policy-makers responsible for managing CNI within
management and strategic planning as it relates to
their own jurisdictions
Protecting Critical National Infrastructure. Coming
from a systems-management and network-centric • Strategists, Crisis Management specialists,
approach, the material within the programme academics and others who are engaged with, and
reflects the need to approach issues of PCNI from a can make a contribution to, this issues covered in
wider and higher perspective than merely protecting this event.
and maintaining individual components on a case-
by-case basis. All material is designed to give

Your Masterclass Leaders:
participants a deeper understanding of PCNI that
will be immediately applicable to their own working
environment.

David Rubens, MD of David Rubens Associates, holds an MSc in Security and Risk
Management from Leicester University, where he is a Visiting Lecturer and Dissertation
Supervisor on their Security, Terrorism and Policing programme. He was a Visiting Lecturer
(2009-‘10), on the Strategic Leadership Programme at the Security and Resilience
Department, Cranfield University, UK Defence Academy, focusing on terrorism and public
policy, and the management of complex multi-agency programmes. He is currently on the
Professional Doctorate programme at Portsmouth University Department of Criminology &
Justice, where his Doctorate research involves developing models of strategic management
at the extremes of organisational complexity, looking at issues of capability development,
decision-making and multi-agency interoperability in highly-unstable situations such as
natural disasters, corporate failures and government-level crisis management scenarios.

Graham Brown, London Resilience, has been involved at the highest level of strategic
planning for civil contingencies and urban management. His roles have covered major
incident planning and response, pan-London strategic consequence management, Business
Continuity Management and national-level Risk Assessment. Graham managed the London
Resilience planning for the 2012 London Olympics.

Marco Hekkens, Project FUEL-L, was formerly a Colonel in the Royal Netherlands Marines
Corps, was Deputy Commander of Netherlands Naval Forces, and has acted as a senior
advisor to NATO, European and African governments on issues concerning strategic
planning and capability development. As leader of the Project FUEL-L team, Marco is
currently involved in issues surrounding the rapid growth of unplanned and unmanaged
mega-cities in the coastal regions of the developing world.

About David Rubens Associates
David Rubens Associates is a specialist corporate security consultancy offering strategic
security services to individuals and organisations across the world. DRA has worked with
government agencies, NGO’s, international conglomerates and major global events, and
brings a mixture of strategic vision, operational experience and academic research to all of
its projects, however large or small.

CRISIS PLANNING FOR MAJOR CITIES

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11th July 2013, Central London

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Crisis Management for Major Cities

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