![Critical Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
Recommandé
Recommandé
Contenu connexe
Tendances
Tendances (20)
Similaire à Creating a low carbon future by Von Dollen, EPRI
Similaire à Creating a low carbon future by Von Dollen, EPRI (20)
Plus de University of Southern California
Plus de University of Southern California (6)
Dernier
Dernier (20)
Creating a low carbon future by Von Dollen, EPRI
- 1. Don Von Dollen Program Manager, IntelliGrid October 6, 2009 Creating a Low-Carbon Future
- 4. The CO 2 Challenge Billion tons CO 2 Historical Emissions U.S. Electric Sector Remainder of U.S. Economy 83% Reduction in CO 2 emissions below 2005 Assumed Economy-wide CO 2 Reduction Target (with no international offsets) 2005 = 5982 mmT CO 2 2030 = 42% below 2005 (3470 mmT CO 2 ) 1017 mmT CO 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
- 5. U. S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 2009 EIA Base Case 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2007 2008
- 7. 2009 Prism U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Efficiency Renewables Nuclear 41% reduction in 2030 from 2005 level is technically feasible using a full portfolio of electric sector technologies 41% CCS Fossil Efficiency 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20% Reduction in T&D Losses by 2030 None T&D Efficiency +3% Efficiency for 75 GWe Existing Fleet 49% New Coal; 70% New NGCCs by 2030 40% New Coal, 54% New NGCCs by 2030 Fossil Efficiency 90% Capture for New Coal + NGCC After 2020 Retrofits for 60 GWe Existing Fleet None CCS No Retirements; 10 GWe New Build by 2020; 64 GWe New Build by 2030 12.5 GWe New Build by 2030 Nuclear 135 GWe by 2030 (15% of generation) 60 GWe by 2030 Renewables 8% Additional Consumption Reduction by 2030 Load Growth ~ +0.95%/yr Efficiency EPRI Prism Target EIA Base Case Technology
- 8. 2009 Prism – PEV and Electro-Technologies U.S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) Efficiency Renewables Nuclear CCS Fossil Efficiency Low-carbon generation enables electrification and CO 2 reductions in other sectors of economy Electro-Technologies PEV 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 PHEVs by 2010 40% New Vehicle Share by 2025 3x Current Non-Road Use by 2030 None Electric Transportation Replace ~4.5% Direct Fossil Use by 2030 None Electro- technologies EPRI Prism Target EIA AEO Base Case Technology
- 10. MERGE U.S. Electric Generation Mix Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio Coal Gas Wind Demand Reduction New Coal + CCS Coal Gas Wind Nuclear Demand Reduction Nuclear Solar Biomass Hydro CCS Retrofit Biomass Hydro
- 12. MERGE Wholesale Electricity Cost Results 2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio $/Mwh (2007$) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio 210% 80% 2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost Substantial increases in the cost of electricity 2050 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $220
- 13. Meeting the Challenge 2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio $/Mwh (2007$) 2020 2030 2040 2050 2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $220 Technology Actions Based on Meeting the Prism Technology Targets Technology Innovation to De-carbonize While Achieving a Cost of Electricity Near Today’s Level RD&D and Deployment Challenge Innovation Challenge
- 15. BACKUP SLIDES
- 16. MERGE De-carbonization Results Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio Wholesale Electricity Cost (2007 cents/kWh) Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO 2 /MWh) Cost of Electricity De-Carbonization 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 2007 MERGE Projections 2020-2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio High Cost to meet 2050 Reduction Target with >80% Generation Mix Gas and Renewables
- 17. Conclusion Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio Wholesale Electricity Cost (2007 cents/kWh) Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO 2 /MWh) Cost of Electricity De-Carbonization 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 2007 MERGE Projections 2020-2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio Electricity policy and technology actions over the next decade will to a great extent shape the electricity future of 2050
- 18. MERGE Wholesale Electricity Cost Results 2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio $/Mwh (2007$) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio 173% Substantial increases in the cost of electricity 2050 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 $220
- 19. Impact on U.S. Economy of Policy: 80% Below 1990 by 2050 Value of R&D Investment Cost of Policy Reduction in Policy Cost with Advanced Technology Advanced technologies without CCS or new Nuclear