The slide deck used in "Making Good Decisions" taught at Stanford Splash, Apr 14, 2013

1. MAKING
GOOD
DECISIONS
SOMIK RAHA
STANFORD SPLASH 2013
1

2. QUICK EXERCISE
For each situation below, write down whether you agree or
disagree.
A. “The terrible situation in Iraq is proof that Bush made a
bad decision invading it.”
B. “I decided to breakup with my boyfriend and am so happy
now – that shows my decision was good.”
C. “The Columbia shuttle blew up and therefore the decision
to let it launch was a bad one.”
2

3. HOW DO YOU JUDGE THE
QUALITY OF A DECISION?
3

4. YOU CANNOT JUDGE
THE QUALITY OF A
DECISION FROM THE
OUTCOME!
4
Drive Drunk,
Crash
Drive Drunk,
Safe
Drive Sober,
Crash
Drive Sober,
Safe
Bad
Outcome
Good Outcome
Bad
Decision
Good
Decision

5. WHAT DO YOU SAY
NOW?
A. “The terrible situation in Iraq is proof that Bush made a
bad decision invading it.”
B. “I decided to breakup with my boyfriend and am so happy
now – that shows my decision was good.”
C. “The Columbia shuttle blew up and therefore the decision
to let it launch was a bad one.”
5
5

6. FROM THE ONLINE
SURVEY
Making Good Decisions
6
2
19
14
Political
Bias?
Personal
Bias?

7. QUICK EXERCISE
For each situation below, write down whether you agree or
disagree with the reasoning below.
A. “We have invested so much time in Afghanistan, and all of
that effort would have been for nothing if we pull out now.”
B. “I have invested so much time on my relationship and I
don’t want to move on or else all of that investment would
be a waste.”
C. “We have spent so much money on tutors and my skills
have still not improved. Even though I believe the next
tutor will succeed, I don’t want to lose any more money on
this.”
7

8. THE SUNK-COST
PRINCIPLE
The past matters only for learning, not for accounting!
8

9. WHAT DO YOU SAY
NOW?
A. “We have invested so much time in Afghanistan, and all
of that effort would have been for nothing if we pull out
now.”
B. “I have invested so much time on my relationship and I
don’t want to move on or else all of that investment
would be a waste.”
C. “We have spent so much money on tutors and my skills
have still not improved. Even though I believe the next
tutor will succeed, I don’t want to lose any more money
on this.”
9

10. FROM THE ONLINE
SURVEY
Making Good Decisions
10
6
10
5
Personal
Bias?

11. HOW DO YOU KNOW YOU’VE MADE A
DECISION?
11
When you’ve put in some resources (e.g.
time/money/energy) that will never come back
to you (i.e. taken action)

12. WHO IS THE BEST JUDGE
OF A GOOD DECISION?
12
The Decision-Maker

13. HOW DO I JUDGE THE
QUALITY OF MY DECISION?
From the process used
to make the decision
13

14. COOL
HEAD
WARM HEART
COOL
HEAD
WARM HEART
14

15. FRAME
INTEGRATION
COOL
HEAD
WARM HEART
COMMITMENT TO
ACTION
15

16. FRAME
What questions should we ask to judge a frame
from a cool-head and a warm heart?
JUDGING OUR FRAME
16

17. Frame: Your window to the world
What’s in? What’s already decided?
What’s coming later?
What’s out?
17

18. Should I ask him/her out on a date?
Is this
useful?
Is this
meaningful?
What questions should we ask to judge this frame
from a cool-head and a warm heart?
18

19. Where and when should I ask him/her out
on a date?
Is this
useful?
Is this
meaningful?
19

20. How can I get to know him/her at a deeper
level?
Is this
useful?
Is this
meaningful?
20

21. FRAME Useful Meaningful
21

22. FRAME
INTEGRATION
COOL
HEAD
WARM HEART
COMMITMENT TO
ACTION
22

23. ALTERNATIVES: What can I do?
23

24. “Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”
My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt,
you look fat in everything you wear.”
What are her alternatives?
What questions should we ask to judge alternatives
from a cool-head and a warm heart?
Distinct,
Doable
Creative,
Intriguing,
Deepening,
Interesting
24

25. “Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”
My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt,
you look fat in everything you wear.”
What are her alternatives?
“You’d better change into another
shirt.”
“You look wonderful!”
“Sorry, its not the shirt, its you. You
look fat in every shirt you wear.”
25
Distinct,
Doable
Creative,
Intriguing,
Deepening,
Interesting

26. “Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”
My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt,
you look fat in everything you wear.”
What are her alternatives?
“If you’re really asking me whether I love you, the
answer is yes, and it has nothing to do with how
fat you are. Now, are you still interested in
whether you look fat in this shirt?”
26
Distinct,
Doable
Creative,
Intriguing,
Deepening,
Interesting

27. “You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”
I want to beat the hell out of this person.
What are my alternatives?
27
Distinct,
Doable
Creative,
Intriguing,
Deepening,
Interesting

28. “You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”
I want to beat the hell out of this person.
What are my alternatives?
No, you are mistaken. 
28
Distinct,
Doable
Creative,
Intriguing,
Deepening,
Interesting

29. “You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”
I want to beat the hell out of this person.
What are my alternatives?
Oh, that was a cannonball that flew over my
head! I wonder what made you say that?
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Distinct,
Doable
Creative,
Intriguing,
Deepening,
Interesting

30. Thank you all for listening to our
architect’s plans for the new dorm. Any
suggestions from the students? Yes, we feel strongly
about having unisex
toilets?
Oh oh.
What’s the head of the committee thinking?
30

31. Yes, we feel strongly
about having unisex
toilets?
But I want to honor
the students’
suggestion.
This is sure to fail a
month or two after we
make it, and we will
have to rebuild the
toilets.
Distinctive,
Doable
Creative,
Intriguing,
Deepening
What can I do?
31

32. Use Options thinking, create an
option
Make two bathrooms instead of
one, but make both of them unisex
If it doesn’t work out, simply
change the signs
Distinct,
Doable
Creative, Intriguing,
Deepening, Interesting
32

33. FRAME Useful Meaningful
ALTERNATIVES
Distinct,
Doable
Creative, Intriguing,
Deepening, Interesting
33

34. FRAME
INTEGRATION
COOL
HEAD
WARM HEART
COMMITMENT TO
ACTION
34

35. INFORMATION: What do I know?
35

36. “I know this test is disgusting, but I want
you to take it. Do you have any
questions?”
What should you ask the doctor?
What questions should we ask to judge information
from a cool-head and a warm heart?
36

37. “I know this test is disgusting, but I want
you to take it. Do you have any
questions?”
What would you do differently
depending on the result of the test?
What questions should we ask to judge information
from a cool-head and a warm heart?
37

38. “I know this test is disgusting, but I want
you to take it. Do you have any
questions?”
For positive cases, what fraction has the
test reported as “positive?”
For negative cases, what fraction has
the test reported as “negative?”
What questions should we ask to judge information
from a cool-head and a warm heart?
38

39. “You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”
I want to beat the hell out of this person.
What are my alternatives?
Oh, that was a cannonball that flew over my
head! I wonder what made you say that?
What questions should we ask to judge information
from a cool-head and a warm heart?
39

40. FRAME Useful Meaningful
ALTERNATIVES
Distinct,
Doable
Creative, Intriguing,
Deepening, Interesting
INFORMATION
Reliable,
Relevant
Interesting,
Exploratory,
Surprising
40

41. FRAME
INTEGRATION
COOL
HEAD
WARM HEART
COMMITMENT TO
ACTION
41

42. Alice: ‘Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?’
Cheshire Cat: ‘That depends a good deal on where you want to get to’
Alice: ‘I don't much care where—’
Cheshire Cat: ‘Then it doesn't matter which way you go’
Alice: ‘—so long as I get SOMEWHERE’
Cheshire Cat: 'Oh, you're sure to do that, if you only walk long
enough.'
For the one who believes every
outcome is the right outcome,
there is no decision to be made.
42

43. COOL
HEAD
WARM HEART
COOL
HEAD
WARM HEART
What questions should we ask to judge our values
from a cool-head and a warm heart?
What are my preferences?
What metrics do I need to
use? How do I tradeoff these
metrics?
Who do I want to be?
Inspirational
43

44. “Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”
My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt,
you look fat in everything you wear.”
What are her alternatives?
If you’re really asking me whether I love you, the
answer is yes, and it has nothing to do with how
fat you are. Now, are you still interested in
whether you look fat in this shirt?
Preferences/
metrics/ tradeoffs
Who do I want to be?
44

45. “I dare you to a fight.”
Insulted over something and challenged to a
fight, standing eyeball-to-eyeball, before the
first blow is given. I pause and think.
What should I be thinking?
Can I really win? (RELIABLE,
USEFUL INFORMATION)
Do I want to get hurt?
(PREFERENCES)
How do I get out of this?
(CREATIVE ALTERNATIVES)
I don’t really want to
hurt anyone (WHO DO I
WANT TO BE)
How can getting out still
be cool for both of us?
(INTRIGUING
ALTERNATIVES)
True 11th
grade story
45

46. “I dare you to a fight.”
Insulted over something and challenged to a
fight, standing eyeball-to-eyeball, before the
first blow is given. I pause and think.
I say, “Dude, you are a strong guy, and I can’t
beat you. But if you swing, so will I, and both of
us will be hurt. Since neither of us can win
without getting hurt, there’s no point fighting.
Why not go back to our seats?”
He grins, and says, “Good idea.”
True 11th
grade story
46

47. “Where should we take our
company in the next five
years?”
How can we
sustainably serve the
world?
Who do we want to
be?
Road Values Mountain
Values
What big impact on the world do I
want to have in my career at
Company XYZ
47
Videos of two companies sharing values with
their employees
• Southwest
• Apple

48. FRAME Useful Meaningful
ALTERNATIVES
INFORMATION
Reliable,
Relevant
VALUES
Preferences,
Metrics,
Tradeoffs
Inspirational
48
Distinct,
Doable
Creative, Intriguing,
Deepening, Interesting
Interesting,
Exploratory,
Surprising

49. FRAME
INTEGRATION
COOL
HEAD
WARM HEART
COMMITMENT TO
ACTION
49

50. INTEGRATION
COOL
HEAD
WARM HEART
What questions should we ask to judge our
integration from a cool-head and a warm heart?
Am I using the right logic?
Logical Reasoning
Am I taking everyone along?
Narrative, Community
50

51. QUESTION
If someone is a haemophiliac, what is your probability that
this person is a male?
If someone is a male, what is your probability that this
person has haemophilia?
51

52. Male given Haemophiliac Haemophiliac given Male
52
3%
33%
27%
33%
3%
50%
13%
27%
7%
3%

53. Male given Haemophiliac Haemophiliac given Male
http://themedicalbiochemistrypage.org/hemophilia-a.html
Haemophilia A: 1 in 5000 males; 1 in 50 million females
Joint Probability
0.02% Haemophiliac
0.01%
50% Male
99.98% Not Haemophiliac
49.99%
0.000002% Haemophiliac
0.000001%
50% Female
99.999998% Not Haemophiliac
49.999999%
Joint Probability
99.99% Male
0.01%
0.01% Haemophiliac
0.01% Female
0.000001%
49.99% Male
49.99%
99.99% Not Haemophiliac
50.01% Female
49.999999%
Associative Logic
Error: Treating M|H
same as H|M
53
3%
33%
27%
33%
3%
50%
13%
27%
7%
3%

54. QUESTION
If someone has lung cancer, what is your probability that this
person was a smoker?
If someone is a smoker, what is your probability that this
person will get lung cancer?
54

55. 55
Smoker given Lung Cancer Lung Cancer given Smoker
What do you notice?
The weight is in the lower half on the right! Could this be
an associative logic error?
Male given Haemophiliac Haemophiliac given Male
3%
33%
27%
33%
3%
50%
13%
27%
7%
3%
17%
30%
13%
40%
3%
13%
20%
40%
13%
10%

56. Smoker given Lung Cancer Lung Cancer given Smoker
CDC: 19.3% of all Americans are smokers (2010)
National Cancer Institute: 226,000 Americans in 2012 will be diagnosed with lung cancer
US Census Bureau: 313 million people in the US as of Apr 21,2012
% with lung cancer: 0.07%
Lung Cancer Prognosis: 8.9% of around 25,000 lung cancer patients were never smokers; therefore
91.1% of lung cancer patients were smokers
56

57. Smoker given Lung Cancer Lung Cancer given Smoker
CDC: 19.3% of all Americans are smokers (2010)
National Cancer Institute: 226,000 Americans in 2012 will be diagnosed with lung cancer
US Census Bureau: 313 million people in the US as of Apr 21,2012
% with lung cancer: 0.07%
Lung Cancer Prognosis: 8.9% of around 25,000 lung cancer patients were never smokers; therefore 91.1% of lung
cancer patients were smokers
Joint Probability
91.10% Smoker
0.06%
0.07% Lung Cancer
8.90% Never Smoker
0.01%
19.3% Smoker
19.286490%
99.93% No Lung Cancer
80.7% Never Smoker
80.643510%
Joint Probability
0.33% Lung Cancer
0.06%
19.35% Smoker
99.67% No Lung Cancer
19.29%
0.01% Lung Cancer
0.01%
80.65% Never Smoker
99.99% No Lung Cancer
80.64%
57

58. NARRATIVE
Logic is not enough
We need a powerful narrative that helps us connect with our
deepest values
The narrative helps us rally together as a community
Let’s watch a video:
• Apple – WWDC 1997, Steve Jobs provides a narrative at
Apple’s Worldwide Developer Conference – 05:00-07:00
58

59. FRAME Useful Meaningful
ALTERNATIVES
INFORMATION
Reliable,
Relevant
VALUES
Preferences,
Metrics,
Tradeoffs
Inspirational
INTEGRATION Logic/
Reasoning
Narrative,
Community
59
Distinct,
Doable
Creative,
Intriguing,
Exciting
Interesting,
Exploratory,
Surprising

60. FRAME
INTEGRATION
COOL
HEAD
WARM HEART
COMMITMENT TO
ACTION
60

61. COOL
HEAD
WARM HEART
COMMITMENT TO
ACTION
What are my action plans?
Action planning
Am I dedicated to the vision?
Leadership, Followership,
Quality Commitments
VIDEO
61

62. COOL
HEAD
WARM HEART
COMMITMENT TO
ACTION
KNOWING-DOING GAP
We know what’s good for us, but we still don’t do
it
AWARENESS
How can we become more aware of our choices?
62

63. FRAME Useful Meaningful
ALTERNATIVES
INFORMATION Reliable,
Relevant,
Decisive
VALUES
Preferences,
Metrics,
Tradeoffs
Inspirational
INTEGRATION Logic/
Reasoning
Narrative,
Community
COMMITMENT TO
ACTION
Action Plans Leadership,
Followership
63
Distinct,
Doable
Creative,
Intriguing,
Exciting
Interesting,
Exploratory,
Surprising

64. YOUR LEARNING
What are you going to take back with you?
64

65. THANK YOU!
somik.raha@gmail.com
65